VERSIONED · CAUSAL · APPEND-ONLY
Model
state.
Complete machine-readable safety-state history and paper-only inverse ledger for LLM/agent analysis and reproducible research.
A circuit breaker around the 15-minute treatment—not a rewrite of the frozen strategies. Signals remain observable while degraded model states are allowed to say NO TRADE.
This safety layer is prospective and paper-only. It does not modify the frozen Bull Consensus ledger or retroactively delete Regime Edge signals. Inverse Shadow never silently replaces the original strategy.
CURRENT SAFETY DECISION
KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE
RESOLVED CALLS ONLY
Rolling diagnostics
| Window | Base accuracy | Small accuracy | Agreement | Both UP | Both DOWN | Inverse | Base MAE | Small MAE |
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APPEND-ONLY AUDIT
State transitions
| Evaluated (CT) | Previous | New state | Reason | Resolved sample | Agreement 8 |
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EXPERIMENTAL · PAPER-ONLY
Inverse Shadow
When Base and Small agree during INVERTED_CANDIDATE, this isolated ledger paper-tests the opposite binary side using its actual executable ask and displayed depth.
| Signal (CT) | Original | Inverse side | YES ask | NO ask | Entry | Micro regime | Settlement | Net P&L | Fees | ROI | Quality |
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