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"both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.76656076388583, "small_mean_absolute_error": 66.62505902777896 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 52.87483333333148, "small_mean_absolute_error": 61.30866875000284 } }, "current_losing_streak": 3, "degradation_trigger": true, "inversion_trigger": true, "recovery_trigger": false }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "regime": "DOWN", "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false } } ], "experiment_discipline": "V1 thresholds and micro-regime rules are frozen. Bootstrap observations inform the deployment-time state only; no historical treatment or shadow orders are created." }