{ "schema_version": "1.0", "dataset": "btcflix_kalshi_15m_inverse_shadow", "description": "Prospective paper-only inverse observations created only while KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1 is INVERTED_CANDIDATE. This never replaces or modifies a BTC Flix production or control strategy.", "strategy": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "generated_at": "2026-10-17T17:02:21.163234Z", "paper_only": true, "execution_rule": "Use the actual executable ask for the opposite binary side. NO ask is derived from the executable YES bid on Kalshi's reciprocal binary order book, never from 1 minus the YES ask. Require timely quote and displayed depth.", "summary": { "candidate_count": 283, "filled_candidates": 161, "stake_models": { "fixed_dollars": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "settled_trades": 161, "wins": 84, "losses": 77, "hit_rate": 0.5217391304347826, "gross_pnl": 958.3400000000001, "fees": 561.9399999999998, "net_pnl": 396.40000000000003, "roi": 0.02467537318078259 }, "fixed_shares": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "settled_trades": 161, "wins": 84, "losses": 77, "hit_rate": 0.5217391304347826, "gross_pnl": 644.0, "fees": 262.7399999999999, "net_pnl": 381.26, "roi": 0.04754612320638905 } } }, "trades": [ { "id": 1, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260912T2215Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:16:15.595805Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121830", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121830-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121830-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:15:00Z", "strike": 77218.77, "brti_reference_price": 77218.77183333333, "yes_ask": 0.64, "no_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 2481.54, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.37, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 258, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:16:15.830187Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.234382, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 29.655666666669276, "small_mean_absolute_error": 31.45131770833177 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 29.033932291662495, "small_mean_absolute_error": 37.841773437499796 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.18181818181818182, "both_up_accuracy": 0.2, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8181818181818181, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 11, "base_mean_absolute_error": 37.88730555555109, "small_mean_absolute_error": 42.26910243055196 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.18181818181818182, "both_up_accuracy": 0.2, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8181818181818181, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 11, "base_mean_absolute_error": 47.77678437499926, "small_mean_absolute_error": 52.2767062499981 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.001711859118075143, "return_12h": -0.0020649691755577626, "return_24h": 0.0006824822687052645, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00040024814271155673, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0008962414640589778, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0006156310938597587, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0007195262094381594, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-12T22:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-11T20:01:25.640705Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-12T22:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-19T22:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77218.77, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-19T22:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-12T22:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "76131.24", "open_time": "2026-09-12T22:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on Sep 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 PM EDT on September 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-12T22:15:00.631426Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "116755.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "197.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3825.77", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,218.77" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-12T22:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-11T20:01:25.640705Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-12T22:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-19T22:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77218.77, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-19T22:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-12T22:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "85019.68", "open_time": "2026-09-12T22:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on Sep 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 PM EDT on September 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-12T22:15:00.631426Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "129915.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2481.54", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2113.41", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,218.77" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.63, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 2481.54, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.37, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00034561034833691107, "return_30m": -0.00021833833472373332, "return_60m": 0.0008606626984182242, "return_120m": 0.000659765182246641, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -4.244271494391327e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0001405436817580874, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00027810033937125667, "ema3_slope": -4.2440913636254685e-05, "ema6_slope": 5.622063328503124e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00023646318184128434, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003654306019121614, "return_acceleration": -0.0004729263636825687 } }, { "id": 2, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260912T2230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:31:16.469394Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121845", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121845-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121845-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:30:00Z", "strike": 77193.49, "brti_reference_price": 77193.49033333334, "yes_ask": 0.63, "no_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 476.69, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:31:16.667551Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.198157, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 38.93800000000192, "small_mean_absolute_error": 33.712166666664416 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 28.425791666664736, "small_mean_absolute_error": 37.00902343750204 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.18181818181818182, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 40.81428645832784, "small_mean_absolute_error": 45.689435763886046 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.18181818181818182, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 49.334637499999374, "small_mean_absolute_error": 53.75291874999821 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00227109314628271, "return_12h": -0.0021697915511601495, "return_24h": 0.0011153326374115924, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0006978441679752478, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0011981454368593658, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0005633034355445599, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0007515210799122762, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-12T22:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-11T20:01:25.938293Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-12T22:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-19T22:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77193.49, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-19T22:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-12T22:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "100933.02", "open_time": "2026-09-12T22:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on Sep 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on September 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-12T22:30:00.574247Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "186471.56", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "930.97", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5008.08", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,193.49" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-12T22:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-11T20:01:25.938293Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-12T22:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-19T22:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77193.49, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-19T22:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-12T22:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "101332.13", "open_time": "2026-09-12T22:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on Sep 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on September 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-12T22:30:00.574247Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "187189.70", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "476.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5224.57", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,193.49" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.62, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 476.69, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.38, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-12T22:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0003274009596340166, "return_30m": -0.0006728981548113078, "return_60m": 2.195613306255062e-05, "return_120m": 0.00019053811266633858, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0001849490892364969, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00013350948096924053, "close_vs_ema12": -4.179326960540575e-05, "ema3_slope": -0.00018491488939620382, "ema6_slope": -5.34009405749325e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 9.104694351447229e-06, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003759230255796832, "return_acceleration": 1.8209388702894458e-05 } }, { "id": 3, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260912T2315Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:16:16.744874Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121930", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121930-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121930-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:15:00Z", "strike": 77258.95, "brti_reference_price": 77258.94766666667, "yes_ask": 0.56, "no_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 2531.97, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.56, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 2531.97, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 173, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:16:16.938268Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.193394, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-12T23:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 43.360979166671314, "small_mean_absolute_error": 38.88594791666765 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 36.508322916670295, "small_mean_absolute_error": 35.16863281249971 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 33.8096145833321, "small_mean_absolute_error": 38.189831597222415 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.15384615384615385, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8461538461538461, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 13, "base_mean_absolute_error": 43.13464583333407, "small_mean_absolute_error": 40.50557708333217 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0010760386703652092, "return_12h": -0.0007022277243220465, "return_24h": 0.0018280953510245723, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0001864941698408451, "close_vs_ema24": -0.000301437469960919, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0003356850061391192, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0008029241636883233, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-12T23:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-11T20:01:27.477048Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-12T23:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-19T23:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77258.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-19T23:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-12T23:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "65532.91", "open_time": "2026-09-12T23:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on Sep 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on September 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-12T23:15:00.560567Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "114656.67", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2251.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "944.22", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,258.95" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-12T23:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-11T20:01:27.477048Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-12T23:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-19T23:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77258.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-19T23:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-12T23:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "69165.91", "open_time": "2026-09-12T23:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on Sep 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on September 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP121930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-12T23:15:00.560567Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "120303.25", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2531.97", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "686.07", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,258.95" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 2531.97, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.45, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 173, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 96.88000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.99, "total_deployed": 99.87, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.88000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.87, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 56.00000000000001, "trading_fee": 1.73, "total_deployed": 57.730000000000004, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -56.00000000000001, "net_pnl": -57.730000000000004, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0005006672296794523, "return_30m": 0.0009310755035596419, "return_60m": 0.0005202858369730556, "return_120m": 0.0013813963260036477, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0003242879028522161, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0004981156768848471, "close_vs_ema12": 0.000656020532463053, "ema3_slope": 0.00032439309961018736, "ema6_slope": 0.00019928597774176993, "realized_volatility_30m": 3.523716964093371e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00034717032822471395, "return_acceleration": 7.047433928186742e-05 } }, { "id": 4, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260912T2345Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:46:15.637675Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-13T00:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP122000", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP122000-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP122000-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:45:00Z", "strike": 77235.23, "brti_reference_price": 77235.23016666668, "yes_ask": 0.55, "no_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 1713.94, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:46:15.838464Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.200789, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 28.345723958336748, "small_mean_absolute_error": 14.96419791666267 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 31.461052083335744, "small_mean_absolute_error": 29.121872395831815 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 27.975414930557843, "small_mean_absolute_error": 32.7845329861096 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.15384615384615385, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 15, "base_mean_absolute_error": 37.44271249999874, "small_mean_absolute_error": 36.00552708333125 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.00014364463905192082, "return_12h": -0.0011845199421006702, "return_24h": 0.0004482044685252262, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00011353267183222826, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0005848079700346842, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00024773141495448847, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0007768925661405524, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T00:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-11T20:01:28.05325Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP122000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T00:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77235.23, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T00:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "43142.03", "open_time": "2026-09-12T23:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on Sep 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on September 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP122000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-12T23:45:00.558708Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "65852.29", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3097.15", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2667.04", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,235.23" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T00:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-11T20:01:28.05325Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP122000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T00:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77235.23, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T00:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "47206.07", "open_time": "2026-09-12T23:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on Sep 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on September 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP122000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-12T23:45:00.558708Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "71301.57", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1713.94", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3612.15", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,235.23" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.54, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 1713.94, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.46, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-12T23:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -6.696840613096278e-05, "return_30m": -0.0003069870962044696, "return_60m": 0.0006238025791900359, "return_120m": -5.245851411928015e-06, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -1.2442828331793443e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 8.375703729401884e-05, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00024100810289495733, "ema3_slope": -1.2442673509749369e-05, "ema6_slope": 3.3503937393764005e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 8.653317934403937e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003164394414107768, "return_acceleration": 0.00017306635868807874 } }, { "id": 5, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260913T1030Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:31:16.402118Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130645", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130645-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130645-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:30:00Z", "strike": 76732.9, "brti_reference_price": 76732.90283333333, "yes_ask": 0.49, "no_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 2742.36, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.52, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 186, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:31:16.637325Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.235207, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 52.00442187500448, "small_mean_absolute_error": 97.65321875001246 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.13473437500215, "small_mean_absolute_error": 138.57241406250614 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 71.78313715278152, "small_mean_absolute_error": 112.50871875000546 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 68.09944791666858, "small_mean_absolute_error": 92.95927604167154 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.006249963022858851, "return_12h": -0.005966662447974835, "return_24h": -0.00812350758536673, "close_vs_ema12": -0.004479474748959711, "close_vs_ema24": -0.00562957641931261, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.002014935792591155, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0013078598343246872, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T10:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:48.109045Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T10:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T10:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76732.9, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T10:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T10:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "67555.40", "open_time": "2026-09-13T10:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T10:30:00.668808Z", "volume_24h_fp": "71313.28", "volume_fp": "80763.38", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3433.81", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "572.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,732.90" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T10:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:48.109045Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T10:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T10:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76732.9, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T10:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T10:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "70381.80", "open_time": "2026-09-13T10:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T10:30:00.668808Z", "volume_24h_fp": "71313.28", "volume_fp": "84921.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2742.36", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1383.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,732.90" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.48, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 2742.36, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.52, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00048662289511636203, "return_30m": -0.00037800644189245336, "return_60m": 0.0011796088718125652, "return_120m": -0.0035482322836725144, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00015057750864688746, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00044215703599703726, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0015017418914621272, "ema3_slope": -0.0001505548384741484, "ema6_slope": -0.00017683153947511965, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0002976461146632081, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005311433497374019, "return_acceleration": -0.0005952922293264162 } }, { "id": 6, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260913T1045Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:46:16.024508Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130700", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130700-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130700-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:45:00Z", "strike": 76680.24, "brti_reference_price": 76680.23766666668, "yes_ask": 0.74, "no_ask": 0.27, "yes_ask_size": 2456.54, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.27, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 352, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:46:16.260258Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.23575, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 47.21308333333218, "small_mean_absolute_error": 89.40484895834015 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 69.88732552083275, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.84258333333673 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.77254687500196, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.02592187500461 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.99166250000053, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.46281875000349 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.006780530365592896, "return_12h": -0.006566422717666831, "return_24h": -0.008703125641703835, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00495306375114668, "close_vs_ema24": -0.006182659802182688, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0021713499520623625, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0014205695920660455, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:48.41497Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T11:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76680.24, "last_price_dollars": "0.7100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T11:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "48879.55", "open_time": "2026-09-13T10:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T10:45:00.491581Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "62670.54", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "56.40", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3362.37", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,680.24" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:48.41497Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T11:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76680.24, "last_price_dollars": "0.7300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T11:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "52173.13", "open_time": "2026-09-13T10:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T10:45:00.491581Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "68737.39", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2456.54", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7045.65", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,680.24" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.73, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.74, "yes_ask_size": 2456.54, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.27, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0006863439896316326, "return_30m": -0.0011726328940486752, "return_60m": -0.00037166990827852686, "return_120m": -0.0015386929435019514, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004185842145892904, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0008061152405011152, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0018512080194950098, "ema3_slope": -0.00041840907515522385, "ema6_slope": -0.0003223421582297936, "realized_volatility_30m": 9.986054725763527e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005398406835892432, "return_acceleration": -0.00019972109451527054 } }, { "id": 7, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260913T1100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:01:16.171844Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130715", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130715-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130715-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:00:00Z", "strike": 76633.04, "brti_reference_price": 76633.03716666668, "yes_ask": 0.69, "no_ask": 0.32, "yes_ask_size": 2140.15, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.32, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 298, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:01:16.360205Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.188361, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 44.710286458324845, "small_mean_absolute_error": 80.67353645833282 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 69.4837760416649, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.94782291666888 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 80.67765972222332, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.21488888889265 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.46880833333344, "small_mean_absolute_error": 98.09387083333641 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00720748987847053, "return_12h": -0.007604851830428694, "return_24h": -0.008857774011412967, "close_vs_ema12": -0.005339611703601088, "close_vs_ema24": -0.006655234167600832, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.002328835366846027, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0015397628248843276, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T11:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:48.711806Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T11:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76633.04, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T11:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "54409.73", "open_time": "2026-09-13T11:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T11:00:00.640886Z", "volume_24h_fp": "40129.89", "volume_fp": "70926.76", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2126.48", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3649.34", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,633.04" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T11:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:48.711806Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T11:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76633.04, "last_price_dollars": "0.6800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T11:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "56391.41", "open_time": "2026-09-13T11:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T11:00:00.640886Z", "volume_24h_fp": "40129.89", "volume_fp": "73564.54", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2140.15", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3556.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,633.04" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.68, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.69, "yes_ask_size": 2140.15, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.32, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T10:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0006155497353201866, "return_30m": -0.0013014712460905908, "return_60m": -0.0016789857234681405, "return_120m": -0.00203557747366101, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0005172055085097549, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0010155329066141583, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002087084045484411, "ema3_slope": -0.0005169381452535537, "ema6_slope": -0.0004060482205138216, "realized_volatility_30m": 3.539712715572296e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003134919014321087, "return_acceleration": 7.079425431144593e-05 } }, { "id": 8, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260913T1130Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:31:21.844508Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130745", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130745-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130745-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:30:00Z", "strike": 76628.72, "brti_reference_price": 76628.71933333334, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 2286.29, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.47, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 2286.29, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 205, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:31:22.010184Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.165676, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-13T11:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.72884895832613, "small_mean_absolute_error": 142.36361458332613 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.3666354166653, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.00841666666929 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.33277256944348, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.83614756944613 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.92766770833259, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.78944895833556 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.008212706807463, "return_12h": -0.007919216854938793, "return_24h": -0.00848852640658182, "close_vs_ema12": -0.004910697365886119, "close_vs_ema24": -0.006410472463597605, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.002611763846892101, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0018306592380656905, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T11:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:49.322724Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130745", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T11:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76628.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T11:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "28212.08", "open_time": "2026-09-13T11:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130745-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T11:30:00.609528Z", "volume_24h_fp": "29989.13", "volume_fp": "46062.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2501.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1895.18", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,628.72" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T11:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:49.322724Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130745", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T11:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76628.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T11:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T11:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "30055.41", "open_time": "2026-09-13T11:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130745-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T11:30:00.609528Z", "volume_24h_fp": "29989.13", "volume_fp": "49797.16", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2286.29", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2164.36", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,628.72" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 2286.29, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 205, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 96.35, "trading_fee": 3.58, "total_deployed": 99.92999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 205.0, "gross_pnl": 108.65, "net_pnl": 105.07000000000001, "roi": 1.0514360052036427, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 47.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 48.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 53.0, "net_pnl": 51.25, "roi": 1.0512820512820513, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0014370812189588023, "return_30m": -5.634428039102968e-05, "return_60m": -0.0013577421960208058, "return_120m": -0.00017973492894840515, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00021533866528700152, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00025450786545533344, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0013492257826511755, "ema3_slope": 0.00021538504601537056, "ema6_slope": -0.00010179278335653574, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0014641818121858274, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001081589899077864, "return_acceleration": 0.002928363624371655 } }, { "id": 9, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260913T1145Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:46:16.442890Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130800", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130800-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130800-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:45:00Z", "strike": 76741.89, "brti_reference_price": 76741.88999999998, "yes_ask": 0.49, "no_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 2030.75, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.49, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 2030.75, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 197, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:46:16.615408Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.172518, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-13T12:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 136.91701562499293, "small_mean_absolute_error": 161.02053124999293 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 92.06504947916255, "small_mean_absolute_error": 125.21269010416654 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 92.23055555555281, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.56856597222213 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4666666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 80.98935729166551, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.78629479166848 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.007053815684951448, "return_12h": -0.006387501734663181, "return_24h": -0.007564455553578875, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003301091111133636, "close_vs_ema24": -0.004841633129916145, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.002535588634810293, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0019383766918716905, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:49.723896Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76741.89, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "40515.90", "open_time": "2026-09-13T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T11:45:00.597555Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "67047.37", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2009.37", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3383.24", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,741.89" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:49.723896Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76741.89, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "44194.30", "open_time": "2026-09-13T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T11:45:00.597555Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "72420.22", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2030.75", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3166.76", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,741.89" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.48, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 2030.75, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.52, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 197, "entry_price": 0.49, "gross_cost": 96.53, "trading_fee": 3.45, "total_deployed": 99.98, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 197.0, "gross_pnl": 100.47, "net_pnl": 97.02, "roi": 0.9703940788157631, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.49, "gross_cost": 49.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 50.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 51.0, "net_pnl": 49.25, "roi": 0.9704433497536946, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.001476870129779373, "return_30m": 0.0029160737310645057, "return_60m": 0.0008040185477946604, "return_120m": 0.00043204981001609966, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0008455478549422857, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0008725427822129372, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00010631862741150577, "ema3_slope": 0.0008462634111543466, "ema6_slope": 0.00034913896835986336, "realized_volatility_30m": 1.989445541028534e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012928952147682586, "return_acceleration": 3.978891082057068e-05 } }, { "id": 10, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260913T1200Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:01:19.680303Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130815", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130815-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130815-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:00:00Z", "strike": 76746.15, "brti_reference_price": 76746.14683333333, "yes_ask": 0.45, "no_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 1180.16, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.56, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 173, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:01:19.883723Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.20342, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 133.46496874999502, "small_mean_absolute_error": 142.14074999999502 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 89.08762760415993, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.40714322916392 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.81084027777494, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.34546527777759 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.2, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.39729583333246, "small_mean_absolute_error": 112.57313958333543 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.007125019426180823, "return_12h": -0.006789275846726284, "return_24h": -0.007696032255579688, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0031137354199669565, "close_vs_ema24": -0.004688176313848658, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.002455460916192087, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.002045342051775312, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:50.023654Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76746.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "36242.51", "open_time": "2026-09-13T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T12:00:00.603158Z", "volume_24h_fp": "38944.14", "volume_fp": "58693.73", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3018.34", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1702.10", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,746.15" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:50.023654Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76746.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "40580.48", "open_time": "2026-09-13T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T12:00:00.603158Z", "volume_24h_fp": "38944.14", "volume_fp": "68051.90", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1180.16", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2269.15", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,746.15" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.44, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 1180.16, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.56, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T11:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 5.546948782919614e-05, "return_30m": 0.0015324215388381468, "return_60m": 0.0014759909152584072, "return_120m": -0.00020547297588446867, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00045032923465315733, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0006627247500237132, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0001368992185029061, "ema3_slope": 0.00045053212243884033, "ema6_slope": 0.000265160191298186, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007107003209750884, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012172843321794882, "return_acceleration": -0.0014214006419501768 } }, { "id": 11, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260913T1215Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:16:16.670939Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130830", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130830-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130830-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:15:00Z", "strike": 76768.87, "brti_reference_price": 76768.86883333333, "yes_ask": 0.72, "no_ask": 0.29, "yes_ask_size": 2067.28, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.29, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 328, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:16:16.847082Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.176143, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 98.67578124999636, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.68554687499636 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 83.98098958332776, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.16751302082776 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.08075694444051, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.29311631944317 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.50650833333202, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.799148958335 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.006786543272642276, "return_12h": -0.0063450491146039845, "return_24h": -0.0070464760014608, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002703856874383348, "close_vs_ema24": -0.004303296500716369, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0023707856873866895, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0021431311580152324, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T12:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:50.611045Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T12:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76768.87, "last_price_dollars": "0.7100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T12:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "60082.70", "open_time": "2026-09-13T12:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T12:15:00.548562Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "93248.55", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3838.51", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1907.09", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,768.87" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T12:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-12T20:01:50.611045Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T12:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76768.87, "last_price_dollars": "0.7100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T12:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "66494.97", "open_time": "2026-09-13T12:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T12:15:00.548562Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "101542.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2067.28", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3161.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,768.87" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.71, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.72, "yes_ask_size": 2067.28, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.29, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00029606698104767126, "return_30m": 0.00035155289156074687, "return_60m": 0.003268651776777487, "return_120m": -1.8134192179664055e-05, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.000373125497055371, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00068480375326474, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00036636590476724074, "ema3_slope": 0.00037326477165899874, "ema6_slope": 0.0002739965548537171, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00012029874660923756, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006463798534370697, "return_acceleration": 0.00024059749321847512 } }, { "id": 12, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260913T1230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:31:16.927655Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130845", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130845-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130845-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:30:00Z", "strike": 76814.41, "brti_reference_price": 76814.40649999998, "yes_ask": 0.43, "no_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 1488.66, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.43, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1488.66, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 223, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:31:17.117366Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.189711, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-13T12:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 79.69718229165665, "small_mean_absolute_error": 64.96671354165665 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 87.21301562499139, "small_mean_absolute_error": 103.66516406249139 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.47681770832908, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.66118229166507 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 77.95508854166546, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.97129687499982 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.006017264152805457, "return_12h": -0.005699798910728471, "return_24h": -0.006513708934165696, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0020262410340983195, "close_vs_ema24": -0.003636390316643534, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0021836781211189704, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0022230180606148675, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T12:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T12:21:12.170711Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T12:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76814.41, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T12:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "57125.28", "open_time": "2026-09-13T12:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T12:30:00.535074Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "114159.44", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2439.03", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2434.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,814.41" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-13T12:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T12:21:12.170711Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-13T12:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76814.41, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T12:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-13T12:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "58865.51", "open_time": "2026-09-13T12:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on Sep 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on September 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP130845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-13T12:30:00.535074Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "118694.44", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1488.66", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2578.32", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,814.41" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.42, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 1488.66, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.58, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 223, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 95.89, "trading_fee": 3.83, "total_deployed": 99.72, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.89, "net_pnl": -99.72, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 43.0, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 44.72, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -43.0, "net_pnl": -44.72, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-13T12:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0005931788153024087, "return_30m": 0.0008894214170112047, "return_60m": 0.0024232059243860515, "return_120m": 0.0010621736394318404, "consecutive_up_closes": 5, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00048302939110267396, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0009128014382853156, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0008119864475886196, "ema3_slope": 0.00048326282124899755, "ema6_slope": 0.0003652539370417873, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0001485559171273687, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005379869954818857, "return_acceleration": 0.0002971118342547374 } }, { "id": 13, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260914T1815Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:16:20.293746Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141430", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141430-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141430-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:15:00Z", "strike": 78865.29, "brti_reference_price": 78865.29133333334, "yes_ask": 0.59, "no_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 8656.79, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.42, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 228, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:16:20.480689Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.186943, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 70.45568229166383, "small_mean_absolute_error": 53.48849479166529 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.62593749999542, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.11745052083097 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 108.57674826388636, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.88163715277672 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 124.49014583333118, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.98983958333193 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.01382715741387508, "return_12h": 0.014618371253612317, "return_24h": 0.019976954844065586, "close_vs_ema12": 0.008798883735149365, "close_vs_ema24": 0.013196233987090578, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004480363998606185, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.005193068850384064, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T18:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:17.195689Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141430", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T18:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T18:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 78865.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T18:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T18:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "100013.45", "open_time": "2026-09-14T18:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141430-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T18:15:00.560153Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "182997.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4565.62", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5027.45", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $78,865.29" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T18:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:17.195689Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141430", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T18:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T18:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 78865.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T18:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T18:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "116996.33", "open_time": "2026-09-14T18:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141430-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T18:15:00.560153Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "210184.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8656.79", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1381.83", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $78,865.29" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.58, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 8656.79, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.42, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0007412192504765436, "return_30m": 0.0003283975581720444, "return_60m": 0.0005321477578998923, "return_120m": 0.0056251854047510985, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -5.034159526451365e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0005488486508018475, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002108064754296146, "ema3_slope": -5.033906111562292e-05, "ema6_slope": 0.00021958766847895994, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.000905814733891952, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006865056141868392, "return_acceleration": -0.001811629467783904 } }, { "id": 14, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260914T1830Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:31:16.786457Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141445", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141445-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141445-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:30:00Z", "strike": 79149.69, "brti_reference_price": 79149.68699999998, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 5560.4, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5560.4, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:31:16.952643Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.166186, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-14T18:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.17031249999127, "small_mean_absolute_error": 91.39470833332598 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 115.78538802082585, "small_mean_absolute_error": 100.0894010416614 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.62015104166251, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.10082118055288 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.06266562499586, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.72915624999659 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.015379519865472036, "return_12h": 0.020337376693464915, "return_24h": 0.023819367108539602, "close_vs_ema12": 0.011923034407075983, "close_vs_ema24": 0.016496768851175014, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0046928180822964904, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.005404470177412968, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:19.798253Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 79149.69, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T18:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "145930.17", "open_time": "2026-09-14T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T18:30:00.61927Z", "volume_24h_fp": "127539.81", "volume_fp": "201336.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2904.09", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6190.11", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $79,149.69" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:19.798253Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 79149.69, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T18:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "151517.90", "open_time": "2026-09-14T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T18:30:00.61927Z", "volume_24h_fp": "127539.81", "volume_fp": "210701.95", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5560.40", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3.55", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $79,149.69" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 5560.4, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 209.0, "gross_pnl": 112.86, "net_pnl": 109.22, "roi": 1.0946081379033874, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 54.0, "net_pnl": 52.26, "roi": 1.0946795140343526, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.003606094162064366, "return_30m": 0.00286220200517584, "return_60m": 0.0036900348258779303, "return_120m": 0.006045539885373152, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0017746306025536729, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0029657076618545553, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004837231830239208, "ema3_slope": 0.0017777855151335231, "ema6_slope": 0.0011876920036519856, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.002173656706270455, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001684771613014784, "return_acceleration": 0.00434731341254091 } }, { "id": 15, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260914T1900Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:01:19.168269Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141515", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141515-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141515-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:00:00Z", "strike": 79225.54, "brti_reference_price": 79225.5415, "yes_ask": 0.3, "no_ask": 0.71, "yes_ask_size": 9003.71, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.71, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 138, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:01:19.363097Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.194828, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 129.19039062498996, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.76265624998996 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 102.8977786458272, "small_mean_absolute_error": 84.50159635416276 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.74132986110514, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.89127083332885 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 110.62254583332978, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.58005208333051 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.020198513370491833, "return_12h": 0.021369374369886174, "return_24h": 0.02463749285682093, "close_vs_ema12": 0.011863120765475799, "close_vs_ema24": 0.016753080430908618, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004989295118836612, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.005939346105056975, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:21.910635Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 79225.54, "last_price_dollars": "0.2900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "147980.27", "open_time": "2026-09-14T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T19:00:00.647574Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "202589.98", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5533.67", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4903.16", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $79,225.54" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:21.910635Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 79225.54, "last_price_dollars": "0.3000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "159552.54", "open_time": "2026-09-14T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T19:00:00.647574Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "224972.72", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9003.71", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4317.15", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $79,225.54" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.29, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.3, "yes_ask_size": 9003.71, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.71, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T18:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00033704614899021657, "return_30m": 0.0009583676559583587, "return_60m": 0.0038233127029607683, "return_120m": 0.005838699806365533, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007666306251614685, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0020687249861262025, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004190228519901806, "ema3_slope": 0.0007672187985885426, "ema6_slope": 0.0008281753012258086, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0001420330072575693, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0016123589667815742, "return_acceleration": -0.0002840660145151386 } }, { "id": 16, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260914T1915Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:16:19.356599Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141530", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141530-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141530-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:15:00Z", "strike": 79091.39, "brti_reference_price": 79091.38583333332, "yes_ask": 0.58, "no_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 4259.08, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.43, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 223, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:16:19.568780Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.212181, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 140.5378593749956, "small_mean_absolute_error": 152.8777031249956 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 105.49677083332972, "small_mean_absolute_error": 103.18309895833045 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.26324479166215, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.03753472221918 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 104.56794895833082, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.35709583333156 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.01830663470703886, "return_12h": 0.01876436884440058, "return_24h": 0.023691208731089652, "close_vs_ema12": 0.009731389221132591, "close_vs_ema24": 0.01471685075771112, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0051338345555518305, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0061949933826810355, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T19:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:22.345132Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T19:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 79091.39, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T19:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "125413.75", "open_time": "2026-09-14T19:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T19:15:00.640653Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "186625.38", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1829.84", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8388.32", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $79,091.39" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T19:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:22.345132Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T19:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 79091.39, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T19:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "131204.50", "open_time": "2026-09-14T19:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T19:15:00.640653Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "195576.64", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4259.08", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3353.41", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $79,091.39" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.57, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 4259.08, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.43, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T19:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0016933385891302333, "return_30m": -0.0013568631733903436, "return_60m": 0.0028668441614494444, "return_120m": 0.003400517504042133, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004642184633847357, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00026560273989462146, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002105942482961698, "ema3_slope": -0.0004640030645949311, "ema6_slope": 0.00010625238432759865, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001015192369060225, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0018914382407924028, "return_acceleration": -0.00203038473812045 } }, { "id": 17, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260914T2245Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:46:17.523763Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141900", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141900-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141900-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:45:00Z", "strike": 78638.67, "brti_reference_price": 78638.67066666666, "yes_ask": 0.48, "no_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 9363.82, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.48, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 9363.82, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 201, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:46:17.694760Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.170997, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-14T23:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 145.6691927083375, "small_mean_absolute_error": 242.4488541666724 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 163.83740364583537, "small_mean_absolute_error": 238.7125859375028 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 161.4112274305553, "small_mean_absolute_error": 216.32280729166692 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.55, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.80546770833098, "small_mean_absolute_error": 168.95298645833174 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.00014497514359024244, "return_12h": 0.009022253653715007, "return_24h": 0.025048710895272386, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00048464415108662173, "close_vs_ema24": 0.005592514421075778, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0026400447180010556, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.006403825519172512, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:31.960938Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T23:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T23:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 78638.67, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T23:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T23:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "68716.60", "open_time": "2026-09-14T22:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T22:45:00.656246Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "126448.22", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2479.16", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6593.68", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $78,638.67" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:31.960938Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T23:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T23:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 78638.67, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T23:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T23:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "75135.21", "open_time": "2026-09-14T22:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T22:45:00.656246Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "137059.15", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9363.82", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "779.03", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $78,638.67" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.47, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 9363.82, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.53, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 201, "entry_price": 0.48, "gross_cost": 96.47999999999999, "trading_fee": 3.52, "total_deployed": 99.99999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.47999999999999, "net_pnl": -99.99999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.48, "gross_cost": 48.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 49.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -48.0, "net_pnl": -49.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T22:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.001245942449284776, "return_30m": -0.0023475296466947126, "return_60m": -0.002292138498596441, "return_120m": -0.008959244730162519, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00027502951996039027, "close_vs_ema6": -0.001376842536635725, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0026926815668331106, "ema3_slope": -0.0002749538995212575, "ema6_slope": -0.0005504338703478107, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0024174714286526733, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0019323416585712969, "return_acceleration": 0.0048349428573053466 } }, { "id": 18, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260914T2315Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:16:16.405796Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141930", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141930-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141930-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:15:00Z", "strike": 78428.4, "brti_reference_price": 78428.40183333332, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 4493.59, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.47, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4493.59, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 205, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:16:16.595218Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.189422, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-14T23:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 148.55843229167658, "small_mean_absolute_error": 178.03694791667658 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.61514322916992, "small_mean_absolute_error": 189.95516927083736 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 159.40540277778078, "small_mean_absolute_error": 211.91138368055908 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.55, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 137.08015520833288, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.80796249999986 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.005010493147594941, "return_12h": 0.008848561260942356, "return_24h": 0.022670407928476077, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00207550218068997, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0027538833098137427, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0018206378479517227, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.005977976216323455, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T23:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:32.802821Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T23:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T23:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 78428.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T23:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T23:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "127461.29", "open_time": "2026-09-14T23:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T23:15:00.645203Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "205012.92", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2600.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6058.17", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $78,428.40" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-14T23:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-13T20:02:32.802821Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-14T23:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-21T23:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 78428.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T23:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-14T23:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "137291.41", "open_time": "2026-09-14T23:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on Sep 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on September 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP141930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-14T23:15:00.645203Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "224017.24", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4493.59", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5793.68", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $78,428.40" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 4493.59, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 205, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 96.35, "trading_fee": 3.58, "total_deployed": 99.92999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.35, "net_pnl": -99.92999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 47.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 48.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -47.0, "net_pnl": -48.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-14T23:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.001531489414242082, "return_30m": -0.002673860475396639, "return_60m": -0.0050151131553541894, "return_120m": -0.005708067856700305, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0011214186064492093, "close_vs_ema6": -0.002380544917910732, "close_vs_ema12": -0.004041112061946905, "ema3_slope": -0.0011201624354516548, "ema6_slope": -0.0009513121106801137, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00019368307020251052, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0017169020532686403, "return_acceleration": -0.00038736614040502104 } }, { "id": 19, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260915T1945Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:46:16.411145Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-15T20:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151600", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151600-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151600-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:45:00Z", "strike": 75880.43, "brti_reference_price": 75880.43183333332, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 5894.91, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:46:16.634277Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.223132, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 178.19933854167903, "small_mean_absolute_error": 161.77350000000297 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 266.83994791667465, "small_mean_absolute_error": 311.1436302083366 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 234.12926388889414, "small_mean_absolute_error": 278.89102951389214 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.75, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 212.8525916666702, "small_mean_absolute_error": 237.1056375000022 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.006620233641687401, "return_12h": -0.014754201258572519, "return_24h": -0.0409228000059062, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00983499295354362, "close_vs_ema24": -0.015018032663046132, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.002902741320667368, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00623879803386207, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-15T20:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-14T20:01:16.417158Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-22T20:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75880.43, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T20:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-15T20:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "115801.02", "open_time": "2026-09-15T19:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on Sep 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on September 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-15T19:45:00.584939Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "176539.03", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3758.07", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5820.33", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,880.43" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-15T20:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-14T20:01:16.417158Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-15T20:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-22T20:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75880.43, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T20:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-15T20:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "141667.71", "open_time": "2026-09-15T19:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on Sep 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on September 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-15T19:45:00.584939Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "221469.19", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5894.91", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3255.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,880.43" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 5894.91, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-15T19:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -5.996575158961903e-05, "return_30m": -0.0005118681350552157, "return_60m": 0.001018269970162189, "return_120m": -0.01101282478243204, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.000508978307578567, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0022045582546295073, "close_vs_ema12": -0.004214910967657581, "ema3_slope": -0.000508719380449496, "ema6_slope": -0.0008810463746286024, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00019598186608360546, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010327344879181922, "return_acceleration": 0.0003919637321672109 } }, { "id": 20, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260915T2130Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:31:16.290909Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151745", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151745-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151745-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:30:00Z", "strike": 75626.02, "brti_reference_price": 75626.02083333333, "yes_ask": 0.48, "no_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 3258.85, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.53, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 182, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:31:16.499817Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.208908, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 158.76632812500247, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.73440625000876 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 143.5127500000035, "small_mean_absolute_error": 142.139851562506 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 232.65117361111697, "small_mean_absolute_error": 235.64083680555996 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.7, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 199.280517708337, "small_mean_absolute_error": 225.87552708333678 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.009748605855065984, "return_12h": -0.016238712651508447, "return_24h": -0.041655380353069926, "close_vs_ema12": -0.010582855587903395, "close_vs_ema24": -0.016264501520295127, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.004839535313825749, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005994705029757075, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-15T21:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-14T20:01:22.895649Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151745", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-15T21:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-22T21:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75626.02, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T21:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-15T21:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "105075.01", "open_time": "2026-09-15T21:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 PM EDT on Sep 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 PM EDT on September 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151745-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-15T21:30:00.679736Z", "volume_24h_fp": "99187.65", "volume_fp": "153822.66", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3355.45", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "13.71", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,626.02" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-15T21:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-14T20:01:22.895649Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151745", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-15T21:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-22T21:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75626.02, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T21:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-15T21:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "120126.06", "open_time": "2026-09-15T21:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 PM EDT on Sep 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 PM EDT on September 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP151745-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-15T21:30:00.679736Z", "volume_24h_fp": "99187.65", "volume_fp": "174371.37", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3258.85", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3028.90", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,626.02" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.47, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 3258.85, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.53, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-15T21:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0032484567484950544, "return_30m": -0.0034419212869118976, "return_60m": -0.0018193348665239695, "return_120m": -0.0034125526821955354, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0015771415729965987, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0025129956663026976, "close_vs_ema12": -0.004133570376459561, "ema3_slope": -0.0015746581142213056, "ema6_slope": -0.0010041888576222124, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001527180850355192, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001720980983191164, "return_acceleration": -0.003054361700710384 } }, { "id": 21, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260916T0345Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-16T03:46:17.181172Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160000", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160000-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160000-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-16T03:45:00Z", "strike": 75744.78, "brti_reference_price": 75744.77600000001, "yes_ask": 0.57, "no_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 2960.49, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.44, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 218, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-16T03:46:17.392380Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.211208, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.99619270833136, "small_mean_absolute_error": 221.12900520833136 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 133.45557031250064, "small_mean_absolute_error": 197.09814843750064 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.53280555555345, "small_mean_absolute_error": 168.21965451388678 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.43478541666555, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.05555104166416 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T03:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.000694075994875698, "return_12h": -0.008516057846267633, "return_24h": -0.02618318257545016, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002883536537636955, "close_vs_ema24": -0.008526377744566882, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00174061897524036, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005930970592110341, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-14T20:01:43.142682Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T04:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75744.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T04:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "108956.68", "open_time": "2026-09-16T03:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on September 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T03:45:00.560945Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "193537.31", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4727.98", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5391.28", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,744.78" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-14T20:01:43.142682Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T04:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75744.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T04:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "121257.40", "open_time": "2026-09-16T03:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on September 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T03:45:00.560945Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "213622.87", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2960.49", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6610.24", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,744.78" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 2960.49, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.44, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T03:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0010985179374428666, "return_30m": -0.0019066369458400345, "return_60m": -0.0021957620245725007, "return_120m": 0.0018569359804383456, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.000644687286693979, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0006573692208412529, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0003119726069221729, "ema3_slope": -0.0006442719327699464, "ema6_slope": -0.0002628785650256038, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00014475510977801642, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007768638605172894, "return_acceleration": -0.00028951021955603284 } }, { "id": 22, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260916T0400Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:01:18.444995Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160015", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160015-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160015-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "strike": 75774.06, "brti_reference_price": 75774.06049999999, "yes_ask": 0.5, "no_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 4901.23, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4901.23, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:01:18.620936Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.175941, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-16T04:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.89061979166217, "small_mean_absolute_error": 167.98536979166602 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.04208072916481, "small_mean_absolute_error": 179.94297135416673 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.4233715277757, "small_mean_absolute_error": 166.93607465277697 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 108.2004854166662, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.79020104166557 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T03:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.00510523074875846, "return_12h": -0.009261110064985423, "return_24h": -0.02408564384556866, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0023963145461576296, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007976544913698369, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0016463898953056333, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005707695722516504, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T04:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:06.221982Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T04:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75774.06, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T04:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "71758.03", "open_time": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T04:00:00.684948Z", "volume_24h_fp": "96013.60", "volume_fp": "141241.71", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6744.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3415.66", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,774.06" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T04:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:06.221982Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T04:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75774.06, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T04:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "90574.63", "open_time": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T04:00:00.684948Z", "volume_24h_fp": "96013.60", "volume_fp": "178497.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4901.23", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4837.33", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,774.06" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 4901.23, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.51, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 193, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 96.5, "trading_fee": 3.38, "total_deployed": 99.88, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 193.0, "gross_pnl": 96.5, "net_pnl": 93.12, "roi": 0.932318782539047, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 50.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 51.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 50.0, "net_pnl": 48.25, "roi": 0.9323671497584541, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T03:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00038662072219985966, "return_30m": -0.0007123219250414481, "return_60m": -0.0007397760328632375, "return_120m": 0.0041997029144420495, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0001291745908991171, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00019358831170190882, "close_vs_ema12": 6.306100789799096e-05, "ema3_slope": -0.00012915790697931584, "ema6_slope": -7.742932891552368e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007425693298213631, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007883625691360125, "return_acceleration": 0.0014851386596427263 } }, { "id": 23, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260916T0415Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:16:16.655780Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160030-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:15:00Z", "strike": 75827.11, "brti_reference_price": 75827.10833333334, "yes_ask": 0.42, "no_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 4692.56, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.59, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 164, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:16:16.857441Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.201661, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.08544270832499, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.14698958332883 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 115.79021874999671, "small_mean_absolute_error": 183.53974218749863 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 130.76079861111066, "small_mean_absolute_error": 168.27871006944528 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 97.70738645833262, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.12171145833199 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.00657249336412935, "return_12h": -0.0054519414086505735, "return_24h": -0.02335774803098678, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0016287233913311328, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007132965692456361, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0015268520898056304, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005459300581819093, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:06.823542Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75827.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "91656.84", "open_time": "2026-09-16T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T04:15:00.606749Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "146991.70", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5436.89", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5223.84", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,827.11" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:06.823542Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75827.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "92379.84", "open_time": "2026-09-16T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T04:15:00.606749Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "148011.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4692.56", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4911.12", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,827.11" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.41, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 4692.56, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.59, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0007000790637758936, "return_30m": 0.0010869704510489964, "return_60m": -0.0008217389528120123, "return_120m": 0.00315224026529215, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0002853255862995674, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0003616299854691807, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0006456954495279721, "ema3_slope": 0.00028540702022517017, "ema6_slope": 0.0001446729214145126, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00015672917078801696, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007636070075480089, "return_acceleration": 0.0003134583415760339 } }, { "id": 24, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260916T0430Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:31:16.345853Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160045", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160045-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160045-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:30:00Z", "strike": 75838.64, "brti_reference_price": 75838.64316666666, "yes_ask": 0.48, "no_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 3935.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.53, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 182, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:31:16.529539Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183686, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 57.31827604166392, "small_mean_absolute_error": 148.13958854166776 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.35659374999705, "small_mean_absolute_error": 168.73209374999897 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 119.51022222222188, "small_mean_absolute_error": 170.5789149305565 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 97.55164270833265, "small_mean_absolute_error": 130.05424895833204 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.005036113057542035, "return_12h": -0.00783568503857135, "return_24h": -0.022828703131977268, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0014166567375972772, "close_vs_ema24": -0.006838963365986661, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0014689319282971125, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00524658272807943, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T04:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:07.204228Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T04:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75838.64, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T04:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "93581.46", "open_time": "2026-09-16T04:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T04:30:00.584485Z", "volume_24h_fp": "81601.14", "volume_fp": "150609.42", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3639.71", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4247.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,838.64" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T04:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:07.204228Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T04:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75838.64, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T04:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T04:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "98964.51", "open_time": "2026-09-16T04:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T04:30:00.584485Z", "volume_24h_fp": "81601.14", "volume_fp": "163085.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3935.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4349.72", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,838.64" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.47, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 3935.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.53, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T04:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00015212017953558643, "return_30m": 0.0008523057394642652, "return_60m": 0.0001393766983579514, "return_120m": -0.0003986504525252954, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00021869674607821743, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0003669498285245876, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0006750750055912746, "ema3_slope": 0.00021874458480741765, "ema6_slope": 0.00014680147892076612, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00027397944212015357, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.000682742140472395, "return_acceleration": -0.0005479588842403071 } }, { "id": 25, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260916T1145Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-16T11:46:17.828481Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-16T12:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160800", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160800-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160800-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-16T11:45:00Z", "strike": 76176.09, "brti_reference_price": 76176.09233333333, "yes_ask": 0.36, "no_ask": 0.65, "yes_ask_size": 6.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.36, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 265, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-16T11:46:18.005946Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.177465, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 118.8895260416648, "small_mean_absolute_error": 158.6629635416648 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.875, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 81.03982812500362, "small_mean_absolute_error": 106.93465885416117 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.32868576389228, "small_mean_absolute_error": 134.6784670138865 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 91.71922916667172, "small_mean_absolute_error": 118.85422291666836 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T11:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0035749746125302018, "return_12h": 0.007287122511698607, "return_24h": -0.009260031144403325, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00417659246144475, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0008272657527035321, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00024069506111046302, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0025586181681575004, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:22.677884Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76176.09, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "63072.05", "open_time": "2026-09-16T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T11:45:00.619806Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "104673.05", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3724.42", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5288.61", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,176.09" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:22.677884Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76176.09, "last_price_dollars": "0.3500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "67978.81", "open_time": "2026-09-16T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T11:45:00.619806Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "113670.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4300.43", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,176.09" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.35, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.36, "yes_ask_size": 6.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.65, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T11:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0033943506606102236, "return_30m": 0.004161971435491685, "return_60m": 0.0031919571712597516, "return_120m": 0.0042054192835419, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00184506539039897, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0027984242283993765, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003753222884480989, "ema3_slope": 0.0018484759493981873, "ema6_slope": 0.0011206240839947146, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001314663322749987, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001617248930476786, "return_acceleration": 0.002629326645499974 } }, { "id": 26, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260916T1200Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-16T12:01:18.173931Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-16T12:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160815", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160815-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160815-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-16T12:00:00Z", "strike": 76187.4, "brti_reference_price": 76187.39983333334, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 4520.5, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4520.5, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-16T12:01:18.351398Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.177467, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-16T12:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.33510937499886, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.54799999999886 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.875, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 79.08853645833915, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.81305729166161 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 82.98649652778356, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.93784027777777 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 91.58056250000519, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.01321250000183 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T11:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.003773010117054998, "return_12h": 0.008008456622678128, "return_24h": -0.00940063080367226, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004148361768096409, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0009556617478807539, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0005195471062300339, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.002428768680230564, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:23.309608Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76187.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "63524.16", "open_time": "2026-09-16T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T12:00:00.734144Z", "volume_24h_fp": "53054.52", "volume_fp": "107279.97", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5685.27", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3271.63", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,187.40" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:23.309608Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76187.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "65619.05", "open_time": "2026-09-16T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T12:00:00.734144Z", "volume_24h_fp": "53054.52", "volume_fp": "112753.92", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4520.50", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3793.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,187.40" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 4520.5, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 252, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 95.76, "trading_fee": 4.16, "total_deployed": 99.92, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.76, "net_pnl": -99.92, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 38.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 39.65, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -38.0, "net_pnl": -39.65, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T11:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00014843896101335297, "return_30m": 0.0035432934755088574, "return_60m": 0.004295885279281375, "return_120m": 0.003530253387567628, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0009958963173020141, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0021034277354212705, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0032998965255657264, "ema3_slope": 0.0009968891155009985, "ema6_slope": 0.0008420795955994542, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0016229558497984353, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013713355374020718, "return_acceleration": -0.0032459116995968706 } }, { "id": 27, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260916T1300Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-16T13:01:18.273618Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-16T13:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160915", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160915-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160915-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-16T13:00:00Z", "strike": 75876.78, "brti_reference_price": 75876.78233333332, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 3154.1, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3154.1, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-16T13:01:18.450508Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.17689, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-16T13:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 129.3656666666684, "small_mean_absolute_error": 141.9184010416684 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.35038802083363, "small_mean_absolute_error": 149.23320052083363 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 95.84757986111556, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.51483854166386 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 107.37096770833887, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.1566177083354 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T12:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0008594162905656288, "return_12h": 0.0019351143618737687, "return_24h": -0.013446241753284238, "close_vs_ema12": -5.40238466898435e-05, "close_vs_ema24": -0.002929359115658503, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0006365639616274787, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.002205703547766724, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T13:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:24.773044Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T13:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T13:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75876.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T13:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T13:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "76453.96", "open_time": "2026-09-16T13:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T13:00:00.66666Z", "volume_24h_fp": "78190.82", "volume_fp": "114098.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4197.05", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3692.14", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,876.78" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-16T13:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:24.773044Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-16T13:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-23T13:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 75876.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T13:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-16T13:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "77775.85", "open_time": "2026-09-16T13:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on Sep 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP160915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-16T13:00:00.66666Z", "volume_24h_fp": "78190.82", "volume_fp": "117666.94", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3154.10", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4447.17", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $75,876.78" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 3154.1, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 252, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 95.76, "trading_fee": 4.16, "total_deployed": 99.92, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.76, "net_pnl": -99.92, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 38.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 39.65, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -38.0, "net_pnl": -39.65, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-16T12:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0004118184613270959, "return_30m": 0.0001673189541349096, "return_60m": -0.004077019306073293, "return_120m": 0.00020135156598799497, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00043191736033199035, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0008368783691149462, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0006738661763159293, "ema3_slope": -0.0004317308882662019, "ema6_slope": -0.0003346393266805414, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004955972372636674, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00121996408651442, "return_acceleration": -0.0009911944745273349 } }, { "id": 28, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T0345Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T03:46:17.027122Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170000", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170000-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170000-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T03:45:00Z", "strike": 76407.83, "brti_reference_price": 76407.83250000002, "yes_ask": 0.52, "no_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 2037.71, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.49, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 197, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T03:46:17.219307Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.192185, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 70.09281250000276, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.29901562499799 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.88039583333193, "small_mean_absolute_error": 160.87021614582954 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.69469618055398, "small_mean_absolute_error": 174.8526232638857 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.3142614583332, "small_mean_absolute_error": 157.3298083333306 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T03:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0067863687615357104, "return_12h": 0.009581398778702344, "return_24h": 0.008753824818229061, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004319337069089935, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00481809239322839, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.002227215004906302, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0013030289677080642, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:54.660845Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T04:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76407.83, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T04:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "83099.25", "open_time": "2026-09-17T03:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T03:45:00.561362Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "165870.70", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3898.31", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3704.28", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,407.83" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-15T20:01:54.660845Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T04:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76407.83, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T04:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "90872.33", "open_time": "2026-09-17T03:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T03:45:00.561362Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "183742.09", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2037.71", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5271.83", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,407.83" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.51, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 2037.71, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.49, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T03:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.000277100275443809, "return_30m": 0.0006448652212240891, "return_60m": 0.0005823014663866033, "return_120m": -0.0018888862288862773, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00020094252270430601, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0006034026661936309, "close_vs_ema12": 0.001234366596909453, "ema3_slope": 0.00020098290871706226, "ema6_slope": 0.00024141933570565044, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005996606599085741, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006936891893586434, "return_acceleration": -0.0011993213198171482 } }, { "id": 29, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T0400Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:01:16.535217Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170015", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170015-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170015-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "strike": 76373.38, "brti_reference_price": 76373.38216666668, "yes_ask": 0.34, "no_ask": 0.67, "yes_ask_size": 5119.32, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.67, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 145, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:01:16.718289Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183072, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.56766145833171, "small_mean_absolute_error": 75.64300520832694 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.66071093749815, "small_mean_absolute_error": 125.66127343749577 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 125.30129166666545, "small_mean_absolute_error": 157.01065104166386 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 116.70918124999953, "small_mean_absolute_error": 149.9165249999969 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T03:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.005883121781296241, "return_12h": 0.008247221127636317, "return_24h": 0.007909324941965945, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003708113068938257, "close_vs_ema24": 0.004274616770098216, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.002184250765025819, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0013974165541101868, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T04:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:52.676551Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T04:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76373.38, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T04:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "56990.36", "open_time": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T04:00:00.597179Z", "volume_24h_fp": "74229.04", "volume_fp": "97003.71", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "121.67", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6555.97", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,373.38" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T04:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:52.676551Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T04:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76373.38, "last_price_dollars": "0.3300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T04:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "80152.32", "open_time": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T04:00:00.597179Z", "volume_24h_fp": "74229.04", "volume_fp": "137019.71", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5119.32", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3182.23", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,373.38" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.33, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.34, "yes_ask_size": 5119.32, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.67, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T03:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00045087436989321716, "return_30m": -0.0007278497079248325, "return_60m": 0.0008979068952146285, "return_120m": 0.0007739329481895041, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00012502685327098195, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00010874972455288123, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0006624042515732675, "ema3_slope": -0.00012501122351116223, "ema6_slope": 4.350178214385103e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 8.688704722470408e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005967695939125156, "return_acceleration": -0.00017377409444940817 } }, { "id": 30, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T0415Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:16:15.837671Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170030-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:15:00Z", "strike": 76252.14, "brti_reference_price": 76252.14116666667, "yes_ask": 0.58, "no_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 4219.64, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.43, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 223, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:16:16.024185Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.186514, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 92.85715104166229, "small_mean_absolute_error": 116.27707291666229 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.88795572916752, "small_mean_absolute_error": 126.96176041666513 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 135.2477812499989, "small_mean_absolute_error": 160.69151562499732 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.11973020833321, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.88131249999643 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.005667930375117702, "return_12h": 0.006094126942784328, "return_24h": 0.0056052886978743555, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0020282579900601228, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002624964249885453, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.002112269521375776, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0014853457397949743, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:53.168905Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76252.14, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "64213.24", "open_time": "2026-09-17T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T04:15:00.617313Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "116977.19", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4668.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4067.07", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,252.14" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:53.168905Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76252.14, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "78862.06", "open_time": "2026-09-17T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T04:15:00.617313Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "145407.14", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4219.64", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5152.63", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,252.14" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.57, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 4219.64, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.43, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00158747716233687, "return_30m": -0.002037635779464808, "return_60m": -0.001394084558688391, "return_120m": 0.0015105660688297107, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.000856886394826617, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0010568037416726073, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0007837554458784979, "ema3_slope": -0.0008561527691668402, "ema6_slope": -0.00042254287871090757, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005683013962218264, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008895749920259746, "return_acceleration": -0.0011366027924436528 } }, { "id": 31, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T0430Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:31:16.329938Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170045", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170045-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170045-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:30:00Z", "strike": 76160.07, "brti_reference_price": 76160.06866666666, "yes_ask": 0.4, "no_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 305.54, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.61, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 159, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:31:16.526843Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.196905, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.9622343749943, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.2102812499943 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.00448437500017, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.66813281249779 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 114.02118402777826, "small_mean_absolute_error": 141.69603819444333 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 110.48972604166701, "small_mean_absolute_error": 152.90443333333025 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0058021941655452824, "return_12h": 0.006061357899931119, "return_24h": 0.004238281258455823, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0007849070003633773, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0013851177297692363, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.001806165541307525, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0015741008690846048, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T04:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:53.593443Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T04:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76160.07, "last_price_dollars": "0.3600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T04:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "115132.69", "open_time": "2026-09-17T04:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T04:30:00.553777Z", "volume_24h_fp": "105077.11", "volume_fp": "163669.96", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1355.61", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5291.64", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,160.07" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T04:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:53.593443Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T04:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76160.07, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T04:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T04:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "120608.21", "open_time": "2026-09-17T04:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T04:30:00.553777Z", "volume_24h_fp": "105077.11", "volume_fp": "172770.25", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "305.54", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7144.41", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,160.07" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.39, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 305.54, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.61, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0012074742897876245, "return_30m": -0.0027930346142653883, "return_60m": -0.0035188514127619808, "return_120m": 0.0005112814726813131, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 4, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0010327284358864208, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0016174757917664095, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0016846017501518373, "ema3_slope": -0.0010316630081615985, "ema6_slope": -0.0006465719908893552, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00019000143627462274, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005374472275193688, "return_acceleration": 0.0003800028725492455 } }, { "id": 32, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T0445Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:46:16.763834Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T05:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170100-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:45:00Z", "strike": 76304.78, "brti_reference_price": 76304.78366666667, "yes_ask": 0.43, "no_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 3081.46, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.43, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3081.46, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 223, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:46:16.939161Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.175327, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-17T05:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 114.82330729166642, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.94635416666642 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 92.4580598958346, "small_mean_absolute_error": 115.12268489583221 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.52803298611009, "small_mean_absolute_error": 144.22892881944185 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.70392187499965, "small_mean_absolute_error": 151.98191041666286 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.007318121000747579, "return_12h": 0.00887670562882148, "return_24h": 0.005696303914688672, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0025766038778023415, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0032198994743621867, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0015988727925155821, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0016922630817191031, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T05:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:54.012497Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T05:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T05:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76304.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T05:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T05:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "81046.18", "open_time": "2026-09-17T04:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T04:45:00.569478Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "137396.76", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2812.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4563.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,304.78" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T05:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:54.012497Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T05:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T05:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76304.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T05:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T05:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "85279.37", "open_time": "2026-09-17T04:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T04:45:00.569478Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "145976.20", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3081.46", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5566.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,304.78" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.42, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 3081.46, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.58, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 223, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 95.89, "trading_fee": 3.83, "total_deployed": 99.72, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 223.0, "gross_pnl": 127.11, "net_pnl": 123.28, "roi": 1.2362615322904131, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 43.0, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 44.72, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 57.0, "net_pnl": 55.28, "roi": 1.2361359570661896, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T04:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0019001427195843856, "return_30m": 0.000690374056315779, "return_60m": -0.0013486684540272575, "return_120m": -0.0007671523192590568, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0004325388053627588, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00019969368553307554, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00017966642628963747, "ema3_slope": 0.00043272597613963626, "ema6_slope": 7.98838551336889e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001553808504686005, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013545471753146653, "return_acceleration": 0.00310761700937201 } }, { "id": 33, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T0545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T05:46:16.321417Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170200-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T05:45:00Z", "strike": 76293.62, "brti_reference_price": 76293.62083333333, "yes_ask": 0.53, "no_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 229.69, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.48, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 201, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T05:46:16.521878Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.200461, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.58502083333588, "small_mean_absolute_error": 165.23009374998946 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.70416406250115, "small_mean_absolute_error": 138.08822395832794 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.83371354166836, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.82515451388463 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.69848333333285, "small_mean_absolute_error": 160.1468635416626 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T05:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.001945648720164117, "return_12h": 0.012136636887461583, "return_24h": 0.005123343107039213, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0018386095010414216, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0027117154265867693, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0016889591019786376, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002090814561942267, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:55.909844Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76293.62, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "68748.99", "open_time": "2026-09-17T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T05:45:00.621348Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "145003.47", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5292.49", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2051.03", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,293.62" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:55.909844Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76293.62, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "73071.56", "open_time": "2026-09-17T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T05:45:00.621348Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "151055.46", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "229.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5186.66", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,293.62" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.52, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 229.69, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.48, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T05:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0016680189838342852, "return_30m": -0.0014602149631927075, "return_60m": -0.00014629270665522665, "return_120m": -0.0014947638603238778, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0007491432099097084, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0008179582526703921, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0006102894809957293, "ema3_slope": -0.0007485824144768394, "ema6_slope": -0.00032707628716877046, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0009380851023318426, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0016328024787332055, "return_acceleration": -0.0018761702046636852 } }, { "id": 34, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T0600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:01:17.822513Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170215-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:00:00Z", "strike": 76262.74, "brti_reference_price": 76262.73966666666, "yes_ask": 0.48, "no_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 3733.36, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.53, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 182, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:01:18.017081Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.194568, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.493255208341, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.9410624999946 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.89580468750319, "small_mean_absolute_error": 148.61287239582998 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 105.11975694444602, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.28958333332896 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.53909687500054, "small_mean_absolute_error": 153.6515395833303 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T05:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0015654139692966584, "return_12h": 0.007613020668037596, "return_24h": 0.004765616393842764, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0013745237474551697, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0022581744166636497, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0015971646404686624, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002079934972303299, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:56.587421Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76262.74, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "121473.52", "open_time": "2026-09-17T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T06:00:00.647963Z", "volume_24h_fp": "109760.83", "volume_fp": "199168.47", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4902.43", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "228.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,262.74" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:56.587421Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76262.74, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "138280.45", "open_time": "2026-09-17T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T06:00:00.647963Z", "volume_24h_fp": "109760.83", "volume_fp": "226514.44", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3733.36", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3396.43", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,262.74" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.47, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 3733.36, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.53, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T05:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0004047673492143522, "return_30m": -0.0020721111734260944, "return_60m": -0.003070013993687226, "return_120m": -0.001448704991990124, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.000577136559689273, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0008734439973949737, "close_vs_ema12": -0.000858819302384406, "ema3_slope": -0.0005768036652065156, "ema6_slope": -0.00034925557688325615, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0006316258173099665, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007225532860257164, "return_acceleration": 0.001263251634619933 } }, { "id": 35, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T0630Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:31:18.760884Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170245-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:30:00Z", "strike": 76349.87, "brti_reference_price": 76349.87116666666, "yes_ask": 0.74, "no_ask": 0.27, "yes_ask_size": 1480.83, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.74, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1480.83, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 132, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:31:18.971195Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.210311, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-17T06:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 79.5042083333392, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.2581145833392 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.625, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 103.26998177083806, "small_mean_absolute_error": 129.30931510416485 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 102.1673993055568, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.60963715277467 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 109.72070312500219, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.74134895833194 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:15:00Z", "return_6h": 7.876424933428439e-05, "return_12h": 0.006523688501375302, "return_24h": 0.006625465738383074, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0022950382623130317, "close_vs_ema24": 0.003252719139045679, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.001443620020983749, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0020309206800446233, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T06:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:57.786866Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T06:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76349.87, "last_price_dollars": "0.7300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T06:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "110150.88", "open_time": "2026-09-17T06:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T06:30:00.628665Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "171187.73", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2393.89", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3969.74", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,349.87" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T06:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:00:57.786866Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T06:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76349.87, "last_price_dollars": "0.7300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T06:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T06:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "119653.19", "open_time": "2026-09-17T06:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T06:30:00.628665Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "186510.12", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1480.83", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3370.91", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,349.87" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.73, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.74, "yes_ask_size": 1480.83, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.27, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 132, "entry_price": 0.74, "gross_cost": 97.67999999999999, "trading_fee": 1.78, "total_deployed": 99.46, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 132.0, "gross_pnl": 34.32000000000001, "net_pnl": 32.540000000000006, "roi": 0.3271667001809774, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.74, "gross_cost": 74.0, "trading_fee": 1.35, "total_deployed": 75.35, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 26.0, "net_pnl": 24.650000000000006, "roi": 0.32714001327140024, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T06:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0005514626421686541, "return_30m": 0.0011425173076766715, "return_60m": -0.0009319612886286022, "return_120m": 0.0024921524274186257, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 3.1589370403928285e-06, "close_vs_ema6": 2.413158836045426e-05, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00013055071347012337, "ema3_slope": 3.1589470192994185e-06, "ema6_slope": 9.652728518272369e-06, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0011231886370575705, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012152216888617338, "return_acceleration": -0.002246377274115141 } }, { "id": 36, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T1000Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:01:16.806745Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170615", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170615-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170615-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:00:00Z", "strike": 76416.03, "brti_reference_price": 76416.03283333336, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 6743.68, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.63, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 154, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:01:16.986574Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.179829, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.98274479166139, "small_mean_absolute_error": 83.68007291666436 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.625, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 91.77924999999959, "small_mean_absolute_error": 106.54881250000108 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 86.68391840278007, "small_mean_absolute_error": 116.34622916666558 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.78355416666746, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.19327499999781 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T09:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0005584493635963916, "return_12h": 0.006444856570507529, "return_24h": 0.006541776722458925, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0014324739091828853, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002895089729951783, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0014411207349003252, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0019348003542607461, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T10:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:01.004238Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T10:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T10:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76416.03, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T10:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T10:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "28496.07", "open_time": "2026-09-17T10:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T10:00:00.591025Z", "volume_24h_fp": "31761.15", "volume_fp": "51446.15", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6483.24", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "157.37", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,416.03" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T10:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:01.004238Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T10:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T10:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76416.03, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T10:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T10:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "28998.10", "open_time": "2026-09-17T10:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T10:00:00.591025Z", "volume_24h_fp": "31761.15", "volume_fp": "53143.47", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6743.68", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1186.97", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,416.03" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 6743.68, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T09:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0016110668766582403, "return_30m": -0.002768826076563924, "return_60m": -0.0011239202871535792, "return_120m": 0.0005612529595881988, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0009486932506005408, "close_vs_ema6": -0.001070932922100254, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0007569690943661778, "ema3_slope": -0.0009477940847496535, "ema6_slope": -0.0004281897438427329, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0002257197196995353, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001233278720578529, "return_acceleration": -0.0004514394393990706 } }, { "id": 37, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T1015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:16:16.216996Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170630", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170630-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170630-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:15:00Z", "strike": 76345.08, "brti_reference_price": 76345.07666666665, "yes_ask": 0.26, "no_ask": 0.75, "yes_ask_size": 4523.44, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.26, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4523.44, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 365, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:16:16.445732Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.228736, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-17T10:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.57829166666488, "small_mean_absolute_error": 109.52171354166785 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.96809635416685, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.84410416666833 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.0239947916707, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.82758159722289 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.61850520833468, "small_mean_absolute_error": 122.608469791666 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0012187920047628253, "return_12h": 0.006893630408105311, "return_24h": 0.006124426788929549, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0004820691180063008, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0019232855578008579, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0013082949717670989, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0019200014679592314, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T10:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:01.488492Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T10:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T10:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76345.08, "last_price_dollars": "0.2800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T10:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T10:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "58098.72", "open_time": "2026-09-17T10:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T10:15:00.645004Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "78665.57", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6668.96", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "604.45", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,345.08" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T10:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:01.488492Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T10:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T10:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76345.08, "last_price_dollars": "0.2600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T10:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T10:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "63446.33", "open_time": "2026-09-17T10:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T10:15:00.645004Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "92215.97", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4523.44", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5186.54", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,345.08" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.25, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.26, "yes_ask_size": 4523.44, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.75, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 365, "entry_price": 0.26, "gross_cost": 94.9, "trading_fee": 4.92, "total_deployed": 99.82000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -94.9, "net_pnl": -99.82000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.26, "gross_cost": 26.0, "trading_fee": 1.35, "total_deployed": 27.35, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -26.0, "net_pnl": -27.35, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T10:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0009285507770532275, "return_30m": -0.0025381216963111797, "return_60m": -0.0036113315904292564, "return_120m": -7.535390687118948e-05, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0009390625700851363, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0014283079048379443, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001425983992544011, "ema3_slope": -0.0009381815588994646, "ema6_slope": -0.0005709969381588742, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0003412580498025064, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006208076438686864, "return_acceleration": 0.0006825160996050128 } }, { "id": 38, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T1145Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T11:46:18.946369Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T12:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170800", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170800-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170800-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T11:45:00Z", "strike": 76140.43, "brti_reference_price": 76140.43416666667, "yes_ask": 0.55, "no_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 1319.49, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T11:46:19.149246Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.202877, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 86.57897916666116, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.80163541666116 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.93602604165972, "small_mean_absolute_error": 89.87641666666423 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.48305034721731, "small_mean_absolute_error": 91.36781076388797 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.18456979166585, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.64756562499898 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T11:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0020078568167750666, "return_12h": -6.61146806568702e-05, "return_24h": -0.00046810180956280423, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0021242496233322417, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0008929346971967567, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0006512875708464261, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.001592711332694341, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:05.030579Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76140.43, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T12:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "73517.29", "open_time": "2026-09-17T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T11:45:00.544153Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "115883.57", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3193.36", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5616.16", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,140.43" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:05.030579Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76140.43, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T12:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "80086.79", "open_time": "2026-09-17T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP170800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T11:45:00.544153Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "125146.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1319.49", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5529.35", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,140.43" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.54, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 1319.49, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.46, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T11:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0024303426240056547, "return_30m": -0.002767206991209026, "return_60m": -0.0016072951293636395, "return_120m": -0.005211812015884276, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0012472274410543216, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0019304116394757154, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002621261421045684, "ema3_slope": -0.0012456738025051761, "ema6_slope": -0.0007715688775734586, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010463287832066515, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012444629652828081, "return_acceleration": -0.002092657566413303 } }, { "id": 39, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T1745Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T17:46:19.137466Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T18:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171400", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171400-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171400-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T17:45:00Z", "strike": 76696.72, "brti_reference_price": 76696.7185, "yes_ask": 0.2, "no_ask": 0.81, "yes_ask_size": 1819.2, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.81, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 121, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T17:46:19.382995Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.245529, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 107.20500520833593, "small_mean_absolute_error": 60.43464583333116 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 67.5483203125059, "small_mean_absolute_error": 72.51509374999841 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 110.56502777778103, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.46290451388995 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 166.65841666666893, "small_mean_absolute_error": 185.6412833333343 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T17:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.007306030487239656, "return_12h": 0.005283504207347134, "return_24h": 0.017484265066866733, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0024721974093597776, "close_vs_ema24": 0.004264266253846127, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0010279423937593624, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0021331735072065428, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:18.523075Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T18:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T18:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76696.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.1800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T18:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.8300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.8200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T18:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "133046.69", "open_time": "2026-09-17T17:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T17:45:00.909647Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "227971.42", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.1800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2221.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.1700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5698.44", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,696.72" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:18.523075Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T18:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T18:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76696.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.2000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T18:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.8100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.8000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T18:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "135403.19", "open_time": "2026-09-17T17:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T17:45:00.909647Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "239883.33", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1819.20", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.1900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5879.10", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,696.72" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.19, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.2, "yes_ask_size": 1819.2, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.81, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T17:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0018151992866538569, "return_30m": -0.0007253172773147298, "return_60m": 0.000962973234845288, "return_120m": -2.959700657112485e-06, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004630518596384636, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00014379038567102764, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0004593190622856902, "ema3_slope": -0.0004628375418538333, "ema6_slope": -5.7512846350582514e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001453531623337223, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012107944022258486, "return_acceleration": -0.002907063246674446 } }, { "id": 40, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T1830Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T18:31:18.482644Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T18:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171445", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171445-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171445-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T18:30:00Z", "strike": 76686.24, "brti_reference_price": 76686.24383333333, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 4064.52, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T18:31:18.692967Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.210323, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 89.36260937500265, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.22100520834283 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.625, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.75996614583892, "small_mean_absolute_error": 82.56277343750662 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.31909375000517, "small_mean_absolute_error": 86.41445486111358 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 159.3526281250037, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.24037708333708 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T18:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.002897859784258938, "return_12h": 0.004405674319114317, "return_24h": 0.010958104067386065, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002113115740671523, "close_vs_ema24": 0.003903843915335381, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0013469786011499618, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.001997529543992016, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:19.688803Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76686.24, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T18:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "82621.13", "open_time": "2026-09-17T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T18:30:01.135435Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "161356.15", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1502.64", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6476.81", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,686.24" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:19.688803Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76686.24, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T18:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "88236.96", "open_time": "2026-09-17T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T18:30:01.135435Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "168382.40", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4064.52", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4395.49", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,686.24" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 4064.52, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T18:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00037669351655389427, "return_30m": 0.00100954976033929, "return_60m": -0.0019515239334405576, "return_120m": 0.000686043094560107, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00014523535018895473, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00012168377739518732, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00035566217606741724, "ema3_slope": 0.00014525644655982717, "ema6_slope": 4.867588018386826e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00012796221207744818, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010242731487095857, "return_acceleration": -0.00025592442415489636 } }, { "id": 41, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T1900Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:01:17.972111Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171515", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171515-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171515-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:00:00Z", "strike": 76523.45, "brti_reference_price": 76523.44666666668, "yes_ask": 0.41, "no_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 2630.7, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.6, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 162, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:01:18.158750Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.186639, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 81.13502083332423, "small_mean_absolute_error": 94.04419791666442 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 93.3503463541656, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.30005208333569 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 82.02987326389241, "small_mean_absolute_error": 91.87393229166749 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 128.6747552083354, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.7242229166688 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T18:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0021803524460505264, "return_12h": 0.0015338732273635358, "return_24h": 0.01188495622501029, "close_vs_ema12": -2.829531951442643e-05, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0016923507394572823, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0010792370122001405, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0017962174936929642, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:21.113591Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76523.45, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T19:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "56925.53", "open_time": "2026-09-17T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T19:00:00.669496Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "95445.29", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8367.26", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "11.13", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,523.45" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:21.113591Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76523.45, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T19:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "86740.49", "open_time": "2026-09-17T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T19:00:00.669496Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "135752.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2630.70", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3050.94", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,523.45" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.4, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 2630.7, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.6, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T18:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00038726934962074466, "return_30m": -0.0021228992128035085, "return_60m": -0.001115492624855774, "return_120m": -0.001838628176556667, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0005919772792667422, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0011010595167694204, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0013167795352861944, "ema3_slope": -0.0005916270494956688, "ema6_slope": -0.00044022991897085806, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0006745164651083546, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009214706571032919, "return_acceleration": 0.0013490329302167092 } }, { "id": 42, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T1915Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:16:18.640106Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171530", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171530-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171530-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:15:00Z", "strike": 76501.23, "brti_reference_price": 76501.22916666667, "yes_ask": 0.37, "no_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 7067.72, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.37, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7067.72, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 258, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:16:18.905900Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.265794, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-17T19:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.5464010416581, "small_mean_absolute_error": 122.61784374999479 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.47628385416465, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.31173177083474 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 85.95084027778164, "small_mean_absolute_error": 100.8412031249997 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 115.60572708333567, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.59581979166904 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0011256088955580168, "return_12h": 0.00024022594902417538, "return_24h": 0.009399187284417021, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00030562191108174375, "close_vs_ema24": 0.001372595181685421, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0009550484138947102, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0017357238233084438, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T19:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:22.641779Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T19:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T19:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76501.23, "last_price_dollars": "0.3300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T19:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T19:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "94815.48", "open_time": "2026-09-17T19:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T19:15:00.604192Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "162127.42", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7911.35", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4651.46", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,501.23" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T19:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:22.641779Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T19:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T19:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76501.23, "last_price_dollars": "0.3600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T19:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T19:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "105370.34", "open_time": "2026-09-17T19:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T19:15:00.604192Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "189406.26", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7067.72", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4219.64", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,501.23" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.36, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 7067.72, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.64, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 258, "entry_price": 0.37, "gross_cost": 95.46, "trading_fee": 4.21, "total_deployed": 99.66999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 258.0, "gross_pnl": 162.54000000000002, "net_pnl": 158.33, "roi": 1.588542189224441, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.37, "gross_cost": 37.0, "trading_fee": 1.64, "total_deployed": 38.64, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 63.0, "net_pnl": 61.36, "roi": 1.5879917184265009, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00029033585087712144, "return_30m": -0.000677492762321652, "return_60m": -0.00203683401120347, "return_120m": -0.003272330309460725, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00044126525810317396, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0009940205669525248, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0013598795217877324, "ema3_slope": -0.00044107062895848426, "ema6_slope": -0.0003974501973127431, "realized_volatility_30m": 4.846674937181161e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007670325749741969, "return_acceleration": 9.693349874362323e-05 } }, { "id": 43, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T2000Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:01:17.045602Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171615", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171615-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171615-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:00:00Z", "strike": 76529.01, "brti_reference_price": 76529.00966666666, "yes_ask": 0.34, "no_ask": 0.67, "yes_ask_size": 4522.28, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.67, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 145, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:01:17.385086Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.339484, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 35.11155729166785, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.39081770832854 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 58.12328906249604, "small_mean_absolute_error": 97.71750781249648 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.93741666666635, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.9969739583333 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 95.49729895833589, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.38224270833307 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0008578572505637538, "return_12h": 0.0020405268465475412, "return_24h": 0.00685569321878754, "close_vs_ema12": 6.375024125482298e-05, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0016377590435945333, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0006577268337490949, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0017521305414078814, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T20:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:23.623972Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T20:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T20:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76529.01, "last_price_dollars": "0.3400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T20:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T20:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "80171.41", "open_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:00.689384Z", "volume_24h_fp": "98173.39", "volume_fp": "132752.81", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2354.81", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5727.81", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,529.01" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T20:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:23.623972Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T20:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T20:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76529.01, "last_price_dollars": "0.3400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T20:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T20:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "95237.56", "open_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:00.689384Z", "volume_24h_fp": "98173.39", "volume_fp": "151632.69", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4522.28", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4204.76", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,529.01" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.33, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.34, "yes_ask_size": 4522.28, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.67, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T19:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 2.97042154233651e-05, "return_30m": 0.0003177190310235112, "return_60m": 7.269667327203244e-05, "return_120m": -0.0010428770441865964, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 3.734278347544695e-05, "close_vs_ema6": -0.000177796802483976, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0005655818650415201, "ema3_slope": 3.734417801104506e-05, "ema6_slope": -7.111366348078185e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00012915102258836964, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0002054642433471242, "return_acceleration": -0.00025830204517673927 } }, { "id": 44, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T2045Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:46:18.643288Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171700", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171700-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171700-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:45:00Z", "strike": 76467.28, "brti_reference_price": 76467.28166666666, "yes_ask": 0.62, "no_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 4534.55, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.39, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 245, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:46:18.835531Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.192243, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.93970312500096, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.73977604166794 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 57.92854947916567, "small_mean_absolute_error": 100.37004687499575 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 74.20671354166673, "small_mean_absolute_error": 112.17194270833352 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 71.5433562500024, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.30920312499947 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0011759947791271097, "return_12h": 0.0006007721849718983, "return_24h": 0.005332747738291177, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0008004009731706896, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0007041011160013877, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00027394036597083726, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0014837090595845037, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:25.681089Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76467.28, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "105314.81", "open_time": "2026-09-17T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T20:45:00.52198Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "161053.25", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8969.51", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "35773.68", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,467.28" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:25.681089Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76467.28, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "115949.86", "open_time": "2026-09-17T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T20:45:00.52198Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "175187.36", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4534.55", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "29413.22", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,467.28" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.61, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 4534.55, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.39, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0024255085068982662, "return_30m": -0.0013236382257804102, "return_60m": -0.0007769158342895155, "return_120m": -0.0011209431641517886, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0008690041813327332, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0010473579829910484, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0012929990104126876, "ema3_slope": -0.0008682496687403285, "ema6_slope": -0.00041876775329674487, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0017650289409607556, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013437316196526434, "return_acceleration": -0.003530057881921511 } }, { "id": 45, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T2100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:01:18.547471Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171715", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171715-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171715-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:00:00Z", "strike": 76488.63, "brti_reference_price": 76488.63483333334, "yes_ask": 0.65, "no_ask": 0.36, "yes_ask_size": 4741.26, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.36, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 265, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:01:18.765354Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.217883, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 79.6789687499986, "small_mean_absolute_error": 98.39207812499808 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.625, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 57.39526302083323, "small_mean_absolute_error": 99.89144791666331 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 65.3085156249969, "small_mean_absolute_error": 97.94236458333035 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.17602916666874, "small_mean_absolute_error": 95.08093854166582 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0005236197584939095, "return_12h": -0.00017489953260241276, "return_24h": 0.0049451193910299285, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0005001085691431761, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0009632460047270808, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.000198585878772084, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0014638765360797112, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:26.047097Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76488.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "77487.00", "open_time": "2026-09-17T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T21:00:00.723537Z", "volume_24h_fp": "90894.05", "volume_fp": "146709.27", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "0.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6452.08", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,488.63" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:26.047097Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76488.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "96722.85", "open_time": "2026-09-17T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T21:00:00.723537Z", "volume_24h_fp": "90894.05", "volume_fp": "176294.32", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4741.26", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2220.57", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,488.63" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.64, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.65, "yes_ask_size": 4741.26, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.36, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T20:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00027924579246541015, "return_30m": -0.0021469400274779504, "return_60m": -0.0005275755365080625, "return_120m": -0.00045491721622237247, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0002950875783055418, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0005489809976131355, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0008582305996233108, "ema3_slope": -0.00029500052731434856, "ema6_slope": -0.00021954418881020565, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0013523771496818382, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013583538218117975, "return_acceleration": 0.0027047542993636764 } }, { "id": 46, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T2115Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:16:19.185820Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171730", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171730-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171730-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:15:00Z", "strike": 76448.22, "brti_reference_price": 76448.22166666668, "yes_ask": 0.53, "no_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 2199.88, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.48, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 201, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:16:19.382856Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.197036, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 89.36818749999657, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.28147916666057 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.625, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 57.98409114583228, "small_mean_absolute_error": 99.99297135416236 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.17152777777422, "small_mean_absolute_error": 107.53459548610651 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 74.76414062500189, "small_mean_absolute_error": 100.50191041666476 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0023930587593885555, "return_12h": -0.00226517393769865, "return_24h": 0.005429460728115343, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0009862735812816714, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0004254256124807121, "ema12_slope_3h": 7.890220394157765e-05, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0014830282016113916, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T21:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:26.662927Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T21:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76448.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T21:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "108742.74", "open_time": "2026-09-17T21:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T21:15:00.607799Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "153514.96", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4027.25", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3396.59", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,448.22" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T21:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:26.662927Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T21:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76448.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T21:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "112535.82", "open_time": "2026-09-17T21:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T21:15:00.607799Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "175525.64", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2199.88", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5253.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,448.22" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.52, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 2199.88, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.48, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T21:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0005283551831553046, "return_30m": -0.00024925693165178675, "return_60m": -0.001572565231429346, "return_120m": -0.0006928973635771385, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00041181294529613055, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0007695554732205512, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0011731313757525896, "ema3_slope": -0.00041164342520461084, "ema6_slope": -0.0003077274639464722, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004038004878103574, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013080500238608532, "return_acceleration": -0.0008076009756207148 } }, { "id": 47, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260917T2300Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-17T23:01:18.449051Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-17T23:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171915", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171915-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171915-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-17T23:00:00Z", "strike": 76342.63, "brti_reference_price": 76342.63366666666, "yes_ask": 0.53, "no_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 5768.99, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.48, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 201, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-17T23:01:18.676437Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.227386, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 106.62452083333483, "small_mean_absolute_error": 161.91748958333483 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 84.18199479166651, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.98198437500105 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 82.68098611111054, "small_mean_absolute_error": 137.45201562500006 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.85790729166474, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.55821249999863 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T22:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.004197128217853896, "return_12h": 0.00019583544910140027, "return_24h": 0.009496158617696704, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0018527965156519555, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0008765370710357434, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.000519935898604218, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.000834743294195972, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T23:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:31.002128Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T23:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T23:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76342.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T23:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T23:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "85816.90", "open_time": "2026-09-17T23:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T23:00:00.585076Z", "volume_24h_fp": "97996.04", "volume_fp": "166879.21", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3628.87", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4345.28", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,342.63" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-17T23:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:31.002128Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-17T23:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-24T23:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76342.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T23:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-17T23:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "96978.90", "open_time": "2026-09-17T23:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP171915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-17T23:00:00.585076Z", "volume_24h_fp": "97996.04", "volume_fp": "188002.40", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5768.99", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2618.35", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,342.63" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.52, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 5768.99, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.48, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-17T22:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0002505616892459761, "return_30m": 0.0016188343187608645, "return_60m": -0.000388042242627451, "return_120m": -0.0019087955613904528, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 8.23363352644435e-05, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00020472696323625694, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0009034816337721852, "ema3_slope": 8.234311509469627e-05, "ema6_slope": -8.188407974274448e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010602131068334075, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012054223730075895, "return_acceleration": -0.002120426213666815 } }, { "id": 48, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T0015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T00:16:18.245952Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T00:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172030-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "strike": 76396.59, "brti_reference_price": 76396.58649999999, "yes_ask": 0.33, "no_ask": 0.68, "yes_ask_size": 5607.32, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.33, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5607.32, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 289, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T00:16:18.431316Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.185364, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-18T00:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 32.266953125006694, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.8899479166721 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 65.84556510417133, "small_mean_absolute_error": 129.99592968750403 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.75142361111527, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.26455034722676 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.24449062500207, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.355918750001 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T00:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0034019039331085743, "return_12h": -0.00385234940511614, "return_24h": 0.0017680247291629314, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0009496300384035372, "close_vs_ema24": -0.00016354247407235345, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0007120802560069972, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00035771919151761367, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T00:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:33.80596Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T00:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T00:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76396.59, "last_price_dollars": "0.3500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T00:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T00:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "91473.11", "open_time": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T00:15:00.631006Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "153805.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6397.85", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3993.90", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,396.59" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T00:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:33.80596Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T00:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T00:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 76396.59, "last_price_dollars": "0.3300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T00:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T00:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "98755.16", "open_time": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T00:15:00.631006Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "189166.44", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5607.32", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6692.13", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $76,396.59" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.32, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.33, "yes_ask_size": 5607.32, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.68, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 289, "entry_price": 0.33, "gross_cost": 95.37, "trading_fee": 4.48, "total_deployed": 99.85000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.37, "net_pnl": -99.85000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.33, "gross_cost": 33.0, "trading_fee": 1.55, "total_deployed": 34.55, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -33.0, "net_pnl": -34.55, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T00:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 6.638608125841827e-05, "return_30m": 0.00028113214624947425, "return_60m": -0.0004798608811646954, "return_120m": 0.0009463536476144174, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 3.628896911656021e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 7.030240117189557e-05, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00012128533962574295, "ema3_slope": 3.629028605334206e-05, "ema6_slope": 2.8121751279419627e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 7.41728642645878e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00034071114148700755, "return_acceleration": -0.0001483457285291756 } }, { "id": 49, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T0330Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T03:31:16.614657Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T03:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172345", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172345-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172345-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T03:30:00Z", "strike": 77404.61, "brti_reference_price": 77404.60733333333, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 5396.4, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5396.4, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T03:31:16.792036Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.177379, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-18T03:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 207.22312499998952, "small_mean_absolute_error": 180.59226562498952 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 160.2168619791646, "small_mean_absolute_error": 115.4834635416646 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 135.43646006944496, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.74290624999776 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 104.68535208333488, "small_mean_absolute_error": 113.27545937499963 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T03:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.011685205289969192, "return_12h": 0.01333455810639017, "return_24h": 0.01276473842286574, "close_vs_ema12": 0.010517677897356137, "close_vs_ema24": 0.011939882339972785, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0018055632930196186, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0009637931726371729, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T03:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:43.571551Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T03:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T03:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77404.61, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T03:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T03:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "283267.66", "open_time": "2026-09-18T03:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T03:30:01.009346Z", "volume_24h_fp": "320393.52", "volume_fp": "436496.49", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6848.06", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "692.41", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,404.61" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T03:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-16T20:01:43.571551Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T03:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T03:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77404.61, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T03:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T03:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "285428.37", "open_time": "2026-09-18T03:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on Sep 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 PM EDT on September 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP172345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T03:30:01.009346Z", "volume_24h_fp": "320393.52", "volume_fp": "439755.37", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5396.40", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4802.40", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,404.61" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 5396.4, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.14, "net_pnl": -99.78, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -46.0, "net_pnl": -47.74, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T03:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.002153829241805738, "return_30m": 0.006215798932161176, "return_60m": 0.007373821602481234, "return_120m": 0.01140399008748938, "consecutive_up_closes": 9, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.002257837893659964, "close_vs_ema6": 0.004524353603096332, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007096601989994067, "ema3_slope": 0.0022629472617385904, "ema6_slope": 0.0018130225432690938, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.000949705231175324, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0014332608456635665, "return_acceleration": -0.001899410462350648 } }, { "id": 50, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T0415Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:16:18.872353Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180030-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:15:00Z", "strike": 77242.34, "brti_reference_price": 77242.33866666668, "yes_ask": 0.35, "no_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 5011.52, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.35, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5011.52, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 273, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:16:19.053968Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.181615, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-18T04:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 92.31912499999817, "small_mean_absolute_error": 146.53006249999817 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 149.3458333333274, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.7091145833274 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.44603645833195, "small_mean_absolute_error": 116.83615104166408 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 103.648170833334, "small_mean_absolute_error": 115.80702812499877 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.012027379464318866, "return_12h": 0.007713142586792676, "return_24h": 0.012985832067793357, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007353000758384853, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00919102082105816, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0028367282144277084, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0016064605074173066, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:43.524246Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77242.34, "last_price_dollars": "0.3400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T04:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "117754.77", "open_time": "2026-09-18T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T04:15:01.037768Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "193089.62", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "310.72", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5827.69", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,242.34" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:43.524246Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77242.34, "last_price_dollars": "0.3500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T04:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "127227.60", "open_time": "2026-09-18T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T04:15:01.037768Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "208600.40", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5011.52", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8007.03", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,242.34" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.34, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 5011.52, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.66, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 273, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 95.55, "trading_fee": 4.35, "total_deployed": 99.89999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.55, "net_pnl": -99.89999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 35.0, "trading_fee": 1.6, "total_deployed": 36.6, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -35.0, "net_pnl": -36.6, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0008527591996287942, "return_30m": -0.00047124852684554686, "return_60m": 5.294440731962169e-05, "return_120m": 0.007104410607175149, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.000252652936263531, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0006367474756336922, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002850340040578603, "ema3_slope": -0.0002525891188810414, "ema6_slope": 0.00025476387835610126, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0006172977434093507, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0014278195148498226, "return_acceleration": -0.0012345954868187015 } }, { "id": 51, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T0445Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:46:16.551756Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180100-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:45:00Z", "strike": 77338.12, "brti_reference_price": 77338.12416666668, "yes_ask": 0.6, "no_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 4054.3, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.6, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4054.3, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 162, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:46:16.729483Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.177727, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-18T05:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 70.51671875000466, "small_mean_absolute_error": 162.17209374999948 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.54371874999742, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.64972656249483 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.31403993055574, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.44786284722068 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 108.79405000000042, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.77148229166414 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.012785942560321839, "return_12h": 0.009333909250267558, "return_24h": 0.013542276779318296, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007975280227985104, "close_vs_ema24": 0.010046447813600645, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.003328181858716084, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002066019541584696, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T05:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:44.380557Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T05:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77338.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T05:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "158124.18", "open_time": "2026-09-18T04:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T04:45:01.002979Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "207845.48", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6968.40", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "571.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,338.12" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T05:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:44.380557Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T05:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77338.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T05:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "164087.97", "open_time": "2026-09-18T04:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T04:45:01.002979Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "216323.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4054.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3950.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,338.12" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.59, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 4054.3, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.41, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 162, "entry_price": 0.6, "gross_cost": 97.2, "trading_fee": 2.73, "total_deployed": 99.93, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 162.0, "gross_pnl": 64.8, "net_pnl": 62.06999999999999, "roi": 0.6211347943560491, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.6, "gross_cost": 60.0, "trading_fee": 1.68, "total_deployed": 61.68, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 40.0, "net_pnl": 38.32, "roi": 0.6212710765239948, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0016728259901039877, "return_30m": 0.0012400647320294222, "return_60m": 0.0007682318265056498, "return_120m": 0.005826971277552939, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0006644805922175756, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0012986720968322096, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003146482573343823, "ema3_slope": 0.0006649224202615045, "ema6_slope": 0.0005197388268576297, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00105243226144619, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009630457459777408, "return_acceleration": 0.00210486452289238 } }, { "id": 52, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T0500Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:01:18.176707Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180115-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:00:00Z", "strike": 77470.45, "brti_reference_price": 77470.4545, "yes_ask": 0.66, "no_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 594.15, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.66, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 594.15, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 147, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:01:18.379620Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.202913, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-18T05:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 107.8592656250039, "small_mean_absolute_error": 199.50292187499872 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 141.05820312499964, "small_mean_absolute_error": 204.39370312499705 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 132.11838194444377, "small_mean_absolute_error": 161.4397048611087 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 115.41953229166684, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.03519999999844 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.01477314547802644, "return_12h": 0.010514012474420298, "return_24h": 0.012717605716241476, "close_vs_ema12": 0.009300388440743435, "close_vs_ema24": 0.01152912511193005, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0036092765919200076, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0023277934319116955, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:44.644614Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77470.45, "last_price_dollars": "0.6800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "217347.42", "open_time": "2026-09-18T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T05:00:01.099139Z", "volume_24h_fp": "216068.91", "volume_fp": "379465.29", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5537.28", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "140.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,470.45" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:44.644614Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77470.45, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "219275.06", "open_time": "2026-09-18T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T05:00:01.099139Z", "volume_24h_fp": "216068.91", "volume_fp": "385998.37", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "594.15", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4388.79", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,470.45" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.65, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 594.15, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.35, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 147, "entry_price": 0.66, "gross_cost": 97.02000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.31, "total_deployed": 99.33000000000001, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 147.0, "gross_pnl": 49.97999999999999, "net_pnl": 47.66999999999999, "roi": 0.4799154334038053, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.66, "gross_cost": 66.0, "trading_fee": 1.58, "total_deployed": 67.58, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 34.0, "net_pnl": 32.42, "roi": 0.47972773009766206, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T04:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.001711062102413452, "return_30m": 0.003386750401673133, "return_60m": 0.00209797105261611, "return_120m": 0.0070717745865507275, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0011869293556650007, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0021495475503805483, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0041117095101959045, "ema3_slope": 0.001188339831095231, "ema6_slope": 0.0008605589451011753, "realized_volatility_30m": 1.9118056154732166e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001176689293407776, "return_acceleration": 3.823611230946433e-05 } }, { "id": 53, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T0530Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:31:16.649155Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180145", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180145-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180145-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:30:00Z", "strike": 77525.95, "brti_reference_price": 77525.94516666667, "yes_ask": 0.63, "no_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 5997.18, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.63, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5997.18, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 154, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:31:16.819952Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.170797, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-18T05:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 93.92283333333398, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.13963020833398 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 77.1175468750007, "small_mean_absolute_error": 146.7079296874981 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.48607291666364, "small_mean_absolute_error": 158.00270833332857 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 112.10889479166727, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.9289156249979 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.014375843115358888, "return_12h": 0.008976937211504943, "return_24h": 0.014457428720878518, "close_vs_ema12": 0.009235484300834429, "close_vs_ema24": 0.01175859073000285, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0040896923258435525, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002807167966883295, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T05:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:45.241228Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T05:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77525.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T05:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "165159.27", "open_time": "2026-09-18T05:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T05:30:01.026108Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "261467.65", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5810.70", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "236.20", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,525.95" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T05:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:45.241228Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T05:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77525.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T05:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T05:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "169450.74", "open_time": "2026-09-18T05:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T05:30:01.026108Z", "volume_24h_fp": "228640.75", "volume_fp": "271457.69", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5997.18", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "154.64", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,525.95" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.62, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 5997.18, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.38, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 154, "entry_price": 0.63, "gross_cost": 97.02, "trading_fee": 2.52, "total_deployed": 99.53999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 154.0, "gross_pnl": 56.980000000000004, "net_pnl": 54.46000000000001, "roi": 0.5471167369901548, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.63, "gross_cost": 63.0, "trading_fee": 1.64, "total_deployed": 64.64, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 37.0, "net_pnl": 35.36, "roi": 0.5470297029702971, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0005286852583130663, "return_30m": 0.0007162816718295772, "return_60m": 0.004105457940742685, "return_120m": 0.0015675789531599538, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0006075810661054781, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0015690565335757523, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003523364058753975, "ema3_slope": 0.0006079504452849438, "ema6_slope": 0.0006280167709573625, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00017059398592389474, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006778825190563191, "return_acceleration": 0.0003411879718477895 } }, { "id": 54, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T0600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T06:01:18.659487Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T06:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180215-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T06:00:00Z", "strike": 77426.29, "brti_reference_price": 77426.2855, "yes_ask": 0.7, "no_ask": 0.31, "yes_ask_size": 3771.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.31, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 307, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T06:01:18.852480Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.192993, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 59.83477083333128, "small_mean_absolute_error": 58.57695833333128 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 83.84701822916759, "small_mean_absolute_error": 129.039940104165 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.98372569444352, "small_mean_absolute_error": 155.78812152777513 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 106.86897083333388, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.09563229166451 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.013545618660340875, "return_12h": 0.01066954532830433, "return_24h": 0.015257068372038995, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007246970126243202, "close_vs_ema24": 0.01000006516326013, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004353474901405585, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0032763177547017186, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:46.23752Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77426.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T06:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "111217.27", "open_time": "2026-09-18T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T06:00:01.088485Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "205580.20", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2024.14", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4366.82", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,426.29" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:46.23752Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 77426.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.6900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T06:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "120694.83", "open_time": "2026-09-18T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP180215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T06:00:01.088485Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "224355.82", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3771.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4390.25", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $77,426.29" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.69, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.7, "yes_ask_size": 3771.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.31, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T05:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0013004505430675994, "return_30m": -0.0012855008275284296, "return_60m": -0.0005701399363806647, "return_120m": 0.001526634979152952, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004950811911691444, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0001221269841360506, "close_vs_ema12": 0.001427977421623261, "ema3_slope": -0.0004948362070704704, "ema6_slope": -4.884840737096052e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0006577098626439071, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.000693727925896772, "return_acceleration": -0.0013154197252878141 } }, { "id": 55, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T1445Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T14:46:17.822712Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181100-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T14:45:00Z", "strike": 80730.11, "brti_reference_price": 80730.10916666666, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 5254.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T14:46:17.988757Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.166045, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 712.6402135416647, "small_mean_absolute_error": 581.1734166666647 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 551.5613385416673, "small_mean_absolute_error": 484.7976666666673 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 401.60046006944685, "small_mean_absolute_error": 364.61868923611354 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 297.0892531250014, "small_mean_absolute_error": 260.45136250000144 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T14:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.03622123345188433, "return_12h": 0.04994169523719294, "return_24h": 0.05450552474547399, "close_vs_ema12": 0.03318438430276638, "close_vs_ema24": 0.041010764423714985, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0077523417722793475, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.008900037624540946, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T15:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:57.547427Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T15:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80730.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T15:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "105100.65", "open_time": "2026-09-18T14:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T14:45:01.041875Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "183146.70", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7923.33", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4593.18", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,730.11" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T15:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:57.547427Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T15:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80730.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T15:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "105657.43", "open_time": "2026-09-18T14:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T14:45:01.041875Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "183814.74", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5254.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4911.60", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,730.11" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 5254.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T14:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -6.473002173346121e-05, "return_30m": 0.006084721046439423, "return_60m": 0.019080650966245116, "return_120m": 0.03405851496913703, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0029692876408171642, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00956313304600509, "close_vs_ema12": 0.017884433474271377, "ema3_slope": 0.0029781305671028324, "ema6_slope": 0.0038399419687764613, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0031072895848876514, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0034553033080856007, "return_acceleration": -0.006214579169775303 } }, { "id": 56, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T1515Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:16:17.185409Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181130", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181130-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181130-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:15:00Z", "strike": 80709.82, "brti_reference_price": 80709.81650000002, "yes_ask": 0.78, "no_ask": 0.23, "yes_ask_size": 1070.23, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.23, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 412, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:16:17.407087Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.221678, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 271.6925989583251, "small_mean_absolute_error": 294.48285416666477 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 584.951031249997, "small_mean_absolute_error": 530.7641276041668 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 416.8996059027777, "small_mean_absolute_error": 377.6975295138909 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 297.91506458333316, "small_mean_absolute_error": 273.4488968750011 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.03088215845492681, "return_12h": 0.04494621766586948, "return_24h": 0.05827131187041967, "close_vs_ema12": 0.030133040298554903, "close_vs_ema24": 0.03897957083886672, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00999166402113727, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00988782103378516, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:58.133072Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80709.82, "last_price_dollars": "0.7800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "98893.14", "open_time": "2026-09-18T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T15:15:01.019062Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "187770.48", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6309.21", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6330.18", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,709.82" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:58.133072Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80709.82, "last_price_dollars": "0.7800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "110115.90", "open_time": "2026-09-18T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T15:15:01.019062Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "203741.55", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1070.23", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7833.64", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,709.82" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.77, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.78, "yes_ask_size": 1070.23, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.23, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0019029594163925134, "return_30m": -0.0002513642911686764, "return_60m": 0.005831827273677925, "return_120m": 0.035247973365903684, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0002008469207761543, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0043354831145152595, "close_vs_ema12": 0.012304356562010232, "ema3_slope": 0.00020088726836542392, "ema6_slope": 0.001737205896538585, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0017788517261806969, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0029860888110417633, "return_acceleration": -0.0035577034523613937 } }, { "id": 57, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T1530Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:31:16.681754Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181145", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181145-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181145-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:30:00Z", "strike": 80892.0, "brti_reference_price": 80892.00450000001, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 5578.87, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.63, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 154, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:31:17.091377Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.409623, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.03736979165842, "small_mean_absolute_error": 227.84324999999808 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 568.0835104166617, "small_mean_absolute_error": 545.0167239583316 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 419.7725381944413, "small_mean_absolute_error": 400.39272743055454 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 288.4731822916656, "small_mean_absolute_error": 278.1827958333335 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.035524499428032597, "return_12h": 0.04505412903457584, "return_24h": 0.058989464042510376, "close_vs_ema12": 0.03109235765275753, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0404383655372893, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.011122884249816112, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.01042445652713897, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T15:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:58.386302Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T15:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80892, "last_price_dollars": "0.3400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T15:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "112078.09", "open_time": "2026-09-18T15:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T15:30:01.025209Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "194672.48", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7069.46", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2185.15", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,892.00" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T15:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:58.386302Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T15:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80892, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T15:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T15:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "115027.67", "open_time": "2026-09-18T15:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T15:30:01.025209Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "212344.83", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5578.87", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2780.82", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,892.00" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 5578.87, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0022573214498635696, "return_30m": 0.00035006644236212914, "return_60m": 0.0019405299180332847, "return_120m": 0.03559083268909058, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0012278015235878126, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00470725650526016, "close_vs_ema12": 0.012317275175883102, "ema3_slope": 0.001229310873350986, "ema6_slope": 0.001886454612402444, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0020801404331280415, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0016212628499888315, "return_acceleration": 0.004160280866256083 } }, { "id": 58, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T1545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:46:19.409012Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T16:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181200-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:45:00Z", "strike": 80657.87, "brti_reference_price": 80657.86783333332, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 2442.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.63, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 154, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:46:19.585205Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.176193, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 222.63676562499313, "small_mean_absolute_error": 340.6028020833328 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 467.6384895833289, "small_mean_absolute_error": 460.88810937499875 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 441.91981423610923, "small_mean_absolute_error": 436.73271180555577 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 309.4634604166655, "small_mean_absolute_error": 305.12541770833343 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.034227741866190264, "return_12h": 0.043726268825794, "return_24h": 0.05164380807490332, "close_vs_ema12": 0.026929769757334743, "close_vs_ema24": 0.03662694148957457, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.01202660927759247, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.010921763861895473, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:59.799298Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80657.87, "last_price_dollars": "0.3100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T16:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "173810.23", "open_time": "2026-09-18T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T15:45:01.008663Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "279443.68", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4329.77", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6362.09", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,657.87" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:00:59.799298Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80657.87, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T16:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "174916.34", "open_time": "2026-09-18T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T15:45:01.008663Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "304396.35", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2442.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4235.52", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,657.87" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 2442.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T15:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.002894435217842717, "return_30m": -0.000643647438681616, "return_60m": -0.0008948499398681031, "return_120m": 0.0181687267070072, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0008357917075381138, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00128448001832826, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00793155096203102, "ema3_slope": -0.000835093743112636, "ema6_slope": 0.0005140561252598985, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0025758783338531432, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002215667833750188, "return_acceleration": -0.0051517566677062865 } }, { "id": 59, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260918T2315Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:16:16.789393Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181930", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181930-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181930-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:15:00Z", "strike": 81158.24, "brti_reference_price": 81158.24083333336, "yes_ask": 0.58, "no_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 148.95, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.58, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 148.95, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 167, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:16:16.960044Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.170651, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 141.0784635416785, "small_mean_absolute_error": 228.06022916668007 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 157.42370052084152, "small_mean_absolute_error": 241.32919010417754 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 180.54671354167294, "small_mean_absolute_error": 186.71739409722917 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 149.92682083333565, "small_mean_absolute_error": 163.9757135416694 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0036891280580972907, "return_12h": 0.04014317265082079, "return_24h": 0.0618183335766358, "close_vs_ema12": 0.009959610533745167, "close_vs_ema24": 0.023153492646124096, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0065918298954277255, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.01476089485395371, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T23:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:01:08.60428Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T23:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T23:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81158.24, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T23:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T23:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "153172.29", "open_time": "2026-09-18T23:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T23:15:00.548143Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "243826.08", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6240.49", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "825.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,158.24" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-18T23:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-17T20:01:08.60428Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-18T23:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-25T23:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81158.24, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-25T23:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-18T23:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "160949.11", "open_time": "2026-09-18T23:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on Sep 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on September 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP181930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-18T23:15:00.548143Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "253091.91", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "148.95", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7309.95", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,158.24" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.57, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 148.95, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.43, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-18T23:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00021187796124388925, "return_30m": 0.00045089476417548013, "return_60m": -0.0009180362173540901, "return_120m": -0.001261230373401756, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -5.259507621424575e-06, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00012907016143126615, "close_vs_ema12": 8.958915637125031e-05, "ema3_slope": -5.259479959218716e-06, "ema6_slope": -5.162539925307463e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 1.3544105011309426e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007417177578752244, "return_acceleration": -2.7088210022618853e-05 } }, { "id": 60, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260919T2330Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:31:18.201968Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP191945", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP191945-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP191945-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:30:00Z", "strike": 81270.36, "brti_reference_price": 81270.36383333332, "yes_ask": 0.53, "no_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 587.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.53, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 587.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 182, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:31:18.398173Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.196205, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-19T23:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 159.2673437500016, "small_mean_absolute_error": 172.1579687500016 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 145.03448177083192, "small_mean_absolute_error": 146.71587760416514 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.87880034722184, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.9718576388841 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 98.73056562500133, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.0454614583301 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.002937475117127164, "return_12h": 0.0002390372291296572, "return_24h": 0.0034145821891400363, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00012185950753740293, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0028784303671365308, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0011796129899296348, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.001631060035645726, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-19T23:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:08.53259Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP191945", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-19T23:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-26T23:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81270.36, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-26T23:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-19T23:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "149894.61", "open_time": "2026-09-19T23:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP191945-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-19T23:30:00.561695Z", "volume_24h_fp": "156456.83", "volume_fp": "196206.72", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4560.73", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5522.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,270.36" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-19T23:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:08.53259Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP191945", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-19T23:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-26T23:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81270.36, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-26T23:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-19T23:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "153248.37", "open_time": "2026-09-19T23:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP191945-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-19T23:30:00.561695Z", "volume_24h_fp": "156456.83", "volume_fp": "200780.73", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "587.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7802.57", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,270.36" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.52, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 587.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.48, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 182, "entry_price": 0.53, "gross_cost": 96.46000000000001, "trading_fee": 3.18, "total_deployed": 99.64000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.46000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.64000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.53, "gross_cost": 53.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 54.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -53.0, "net_pnl": -54.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0001898859032984923, "return_30m": 0.0004927325655175174, "return_60m": 0.0026896605106687677, "return_120m": 0.002902421001199862, "consecutive_up_closes": 5, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00033348950475131645, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0008573495896579963, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0009603976555638827, "ema3_slope": 0.00033360075710242576, "ema6_slope": 0.00034305748394047875, "realized_volatility_30m": 5.6451631763043686e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007566138015435473, "return_acceleration": -0.00011290326352608737 } }, { "id": 61, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260919T2345Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:46:17.076266Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192000", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192000-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192000-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:45:00Z", "strike": 81252.68, "brti_reference_price": 81252.67833333332, "yes_ask": 0.62, "no_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 3102.7, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.62, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3102.7, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 157, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:46:17.260900Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.184634, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 146.20395833332805, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.64731770832805 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 160.77429427083007, "small_mean_absolute_error": 160.1910416666633 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 147.16338715277502, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.76191493055012 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 107.85451562499948, "small_mean_absolute_error": 104.22957916666346 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0027385716717697184, "return_12h": -0.00016739619842187636, "return_24h": 0.004358812707040194, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0003255957074330684, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002605198295437594, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0011346415906151597, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0015403420174302518, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:08.847606Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81252.68, "last_price_dollars": "0.5900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T00:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "101511.96", "open_time": "2026-09-19T23:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-19T23:45:00.610967Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "184070.69", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5045.60", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1259.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,252.68" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:08.847606Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81252.68, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T00:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "108354.65", "open_time": "2026-09-19T23:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-19T23:45:00.610967Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "200267.02", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3102.70", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8297.19", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,252.68" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.61, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 3102.7, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.39, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 157, "entry_price": 0.62, "gross_cost": 97.34, "trading_fee": 2.59, "total_deployed": 99.93, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -97.34, "net_pnl": -99.93, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.62, "gross_cost": 62.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 63.65, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -62.0, "net_pnl": -63.65, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-19T23:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00021761315153301375, "return_30m": -2.7768569904385032e-05, "return_60m": 0.0004899879290498621, "return_120m": 0.0031898038350974822, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 5.789853832327552e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00045673787494271423, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0006282613488146627, "ema3_slope": 5.7901890758049746e-05, "ema6_slope": 0.0001827285335940232, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00020374952741575303, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00020078771991685024, "return_acceleration": -0.00040749905483150606 } }, { "id": 62, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T0015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:16:16.014494Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192030-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:15:00Z", "strike": 81258.96, "brti_reference_price": 81258.95816666666, "yes_ask": 0.41, "no_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 4323.8, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4323.8, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:16:16.190244Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.17575, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T00:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 204.59692187499604, "small_mean_absolute_error": 168.08129687499604 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 185.03523177083116, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.71198958333116 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 152.04854687499997, "small_mean_absolute_error": 142.28900173610842 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 128.62264166666645, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.84522395833119 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0011452190210686775, "return_12h": -0.000820151172258532, "return_24h": 0.0038085279490800428, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0002191785345663222, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002577709089691904, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0008591886301794194, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0013994339167939795, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T00:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:09.441053Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81258.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T00:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "89802.35", "open_time": "2026-09-20T00:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T00:15:00.621003Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "190074.90", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "848.37", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6166.26", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,258.96" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T00:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:09.441053Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81258.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T00:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "91403.29", "open_time": "2026-09-20T00:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T00:15:00.621003Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "193878.28", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4323.80", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6028.63", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,258.96" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.4, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 4323.8, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.6, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 234, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 95.94, "trading_fee": 3.97, "total_deployed": 99.91, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 234.0, "gross_pnl": 138.06, "net_pnl": 134.09, "roi": 1.3421078971073968, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 41.0, "trading_fee": 1.7, "total_deployed": 42.7, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 59.0, "net_pnl": 57.3, "roi": 1.3419203747072599, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00023772875866656662, "return_30m": 7.728770869053214e-05, "return_60m": 4.951699261690479e-05, "return_120m": 0.0033999468810264055, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 9.321986536670046e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0003209421125918155, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0005360617730385542, "ema3_slope": 9.322855612037273e-05, "ema6_slope": 0.00012839332776715118, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00019906583812806522, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00020312631141546956, "return_acceleration": 0.00039813167625613044 } }, { "id": 63, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T0030Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:31:16.319724Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192045", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192045-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192045-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:30:00Z", "strike": 81285.41, "brti_reference_price": 81285.41383333332, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 5846.48, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5846.48, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:31:16.521697Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.201973, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T00:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 208.28324999999677, "small_mean_absolute_error": 165.70317187499677 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 183.77529687499919, "small_mean_absolute_error": 168.93057031249919 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 166.11740451388687, "small_mean_absolute_error": 153.04497569444234 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 137.25299374999958, "small_mean_absolute_error": 116.76953645833055 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.001779451952712563, "return_12h": 0.0008349236768498969, "return_24h": 0.0024987664822269107, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00010198228361169015, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0028440850423803177, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0006986649262241684, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.001333507252722299, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T00:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:09.753354Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81285.41, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T00:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "75312.16", "open_time": "2026-09-20T00:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T00:30:00.496927Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "119124.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "213.97", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6728.35", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,285.41" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T00:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:09.753354Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T00:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81285.41, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T00:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T00:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "82114.76", "open_time": "2026-09-20T00:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T00:30:00.496927Z", "volume_24h_fp": "98343.90", "volume_fp": "129239.04", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5846.48", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4834.67", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,285.41" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 5846.48, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 252, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 95.76, "trading_fee": 4.16, "total_deployed": 99.92, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 252.0, "gross_pnl": 156.24, "net_pnl": 152.07999999999998, "roi": 1.522017614091273, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 38.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 39.65, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 62.0, "net_pnl": 60.35, "roi": 1.5220680958385877, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00032557230936181014, "return_30m": 0.0005633784659293539, "return_60m": 0.00018518435614334194, "return_120m": 0.0028753429498620253, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0002093674183722971, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00046178533726104476, "close_vs_ema12": 0.000729125997526614, "ema3_slope": 0.00020941126226770024, "ema6_slope": 0.0001847482605195072, "realized_volatility_30m": 4.392177534762176e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0002382300559893856, "return_acceleration": 8.784355069524352e-05 } }, { "id": 64, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T0045Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:46:16.172869Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T01:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192100-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:45:00Z", "strike": 81297.52, "brti_reference_price": 81297.52416666667, "yes_ask": 0.39, "no_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 6067.67, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.39, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6067.67, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 245, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:46:16.352400Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.179531, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T01:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 206.92244270833544, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.23494270833544 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 176.56320052083174, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.44113020833174 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 176.1570104166652, "small_mean_absolute_error": 161.53900868055402 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 141.38999895833186, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.67763541666281 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0021291505590324, "return_12h": 0.0005445503402525809, "return_24h": -8.823803314828016e-05, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00024073613390540594, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002931551725444015, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0005180786127345627, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0012616337100943564, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T01:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:10.025981Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T01:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T01:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81297.52, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T01:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T01:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "86293.44", "open_time": "2026-09-20T00:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T00:45:00.604278Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "132858.76", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2052.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3902.86", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,297.52" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T01:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-18T20:01:10.025981Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T01:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T01:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81297.52, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T01:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T01:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "90014.60", "open_time": "2026-09-20T00:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on Sep 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on September 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP192100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T00:45:00.604278Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "146036.43", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6067.67", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "109.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,297.52" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.38, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 6067.67, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.62, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 245, "entry_price": 0.39, "gross_cost": 95.55, "trading_fee": 4.08, "total_deployed": 99.63, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.55, "net_pnl": -99.63, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.39, "gross_cost": 39.0, "trading_fee": 1.67, "total_deployed": 40.67, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -39.0, "net_pnl": -40.67, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T00:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00014898531928708714, "return_30m": 0.00047460613414340713, "return_60m": 0.0005519305240546668, "return_120m": 0.001042188892398821, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00017915986115801807, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0004362377623494673, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0007430087964941379, "ema3_slope": 0.00017919196516569258, "ema6_slope": 0.0001745255587954908, "realized_volatility_30m": 8.82934950373615e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00018323084593994672, "return_acceleration": -0.000176586990074723 } }, { "id": 65, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1300Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:01:16.881583Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP200915", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP200915-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP200915-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:00:00Z", "strike": 80446.91, "brti_reference_price": 80446.90816666669, "yes_ask": 0.62, "no_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 6370.23, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.39, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 245, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:01:17.067421Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.185838, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.75, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 104.60381770833555, "small_mean_absolute_error": 77.61883333333753 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.875, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 80.24269010416538, "small_mean_absolute_error": 57.674372395835235 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.75, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.29172048611144, "small_mean_absolute_error": 56.482125000001055 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.65, "agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.65, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 70.99153958333264, "small_mean_absolute_error": 61.423061458337905 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0017774626869060395, "return_12h": -0.010140177822816177, "return_24h": -0.01058624241313666, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0009924163189091173, "close_vs_ema24": -0.00271784715456036, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.001221928627688662, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.002443888277860573, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T13:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:17.149074Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP200915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T13:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T13:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80446.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T13:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T13:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "46516.16", "open_time": "2026-09-20T13:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP200915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T13:00:00.626292Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "74217.10", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10868.50", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5975.20", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,446.91" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T13:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:17.149074Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP200915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T13:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T13:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80446.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T13:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T13:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "60427.69", "open_time": "2026-09-20T13:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP200915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T13:00:00.626292Z", "volume_24h_fp": "66988.56", "volume_fp": "94185.60", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6370.23", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "847.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,446.91" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.61, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 6370.23, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.39, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T12:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0013943110459564423, "return_30m": 0.0012272962881427762, "return_60m": -8.554600029342385e-05, "return_120m": 0.0017988636420476212, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0005215619742922062, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0006423009359626253, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0007753089076076858, "ema3_slope": 0.0005218341431381113, "ema6_slope": 0.0002569863994270616, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007805466287451601, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009455848425531703, "return_acceleration": 0.0015610932574903202 } }, { "id": 66, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1345Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:46:16.869156Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201000", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201000-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201000-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:45:00Z", "strike": 80507.12, "brti_reference_price": 80507.12483333334, "yes_ask": 0.61, "no_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 4008.88, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.61, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4008.88, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 159, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:46:17.035538Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.166382, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T14:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.75, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 80.95198437499857, "small_mean_absolute_error": 49.616046874998574 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.875, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 79.7192682291643, "small_mean_absolute_error": 61.59494010416529 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.75, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.56018576388426, "small_mean_absolute_error": 53.243807291664176 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.6, "agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.65, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 67.08756354166398, "small_mean_absolute_error": 57.47807083333464 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.002183760176799332, "return_12h": -0.0067531988126541265, "return_24h": -0.008963377098759828, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00022015017938681325, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0018545482656123768, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0008224194813759578, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.002175609230199771, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T14:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:18.537487Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T14:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T14:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80507.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T14:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T14:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "59201.14", "open_time": "2026-09-20T13:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:00 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:45 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T13:45:00.587618Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "75754.96", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4374.66", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6831.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,507.12" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T14:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:18.537487Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T14:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T14:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80507.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T14:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T14:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "60289.18", "open_time": "2026-09-20T13:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:00 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:45 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T13:45:00.587618Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "77115.82", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4008.88", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6931.83", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,507.12" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.6, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 4008.88, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.4, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 159, "entry_price": 0.61, "gross_cost": 96.99, "trading_fee": 2.65, "total_deployed": 99.64, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 159.0, "gross_pnl": 62.010000000000005, "net_pnl": 59.36, "roi": 0.5957446808510638, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.61, "gross_cost": 61.0, "trading_fee": 1.67, "total_deployed": 62.67, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 39.0, "net_pnl": 37.33, "roi": 0.5956598053295037, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0002470412251487364, "return_30m": -0.00037085856256058314, "return_60m": 0.0021438815242302844, "return_120m": 0.0009836913136216374, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00017400919634624756, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0005029080090210858, "close_vs_ema12": 0.000914246417007325, "ema3_slope": 0.0001740394808162904, "ema6_slope": 0.0002012036783851645, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00043239420191909517, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007893273540420888, "return_acceleration": 0.0008647884038381903 } }, { "id": 67, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1430Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:31:18.346830Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201045", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201045-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201045-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:30:00Z", "strike": 80499.1, "brti_reference_price": 80499.09816666666, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 7567.21, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7567.21, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:31:18.542111Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.195281, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T14:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 43.780505208334944, "small_mean_absolute_error": 48.471911458334944 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.75, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.93195833333084, "small_mean_absolute_error": 57.49250520833084 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.02490798610961, "small_mean_absolute_error": 60.8170225694436 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.65, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 69.93691041666534, "small_mean_absolute_error": 57.97728229166751 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0017376090498228969, "return_12h": -0.005761161933466874, "return_24h": -0.012524573284394047, "close_vs_ema12": -0.000327235246306512, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0018591113728947395, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.000432100286374526, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0019135991461279866, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T14:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:19.877612Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T14:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T14:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80499.1, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T14:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T14:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "49990.79", "open_time": "2026-09-20T14:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T14:30:01.048154Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "90319.42", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7842.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1663.08", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,499.10" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T14:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:19.877612Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T14:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T14:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80499.1, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T14:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T14:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "53202.22", "open_time": "2026-09-20T14:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T14:30:01.048154Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "94398.55", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7567.21", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "700.95", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,499.10" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 7567.21, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 252, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 95.76, "trading_fee": 4.16, "total_deployed": 99.92, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 252.0, "gross_pnl": 156.24, "net_pnl": 152.07999999999998, "roi": 1.522017614091273, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 38.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 39.65, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 62.0, "net_pnl": 60.35, "roi": 1.5220680958385877, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0007878038574714585, "return_30m": -0.00037643802919018476, "return_60m": 0.00014731527417422008, "return_120m": 0.0018768433469931178, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00023483793112721862, "close_vs_ema6": -6.892958764381785e-05, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00034902216829468813, "ema3_slope": -0.00023478279522115564, "ema6_slope": -2.7571074872390078e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005997470084241896, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0004801913914157075, "return_acceleration": -0.0011994940168483792 } }, { "id": 68, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1445Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:46:18.238620Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201100-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:45:00Z", "strike": 80607.39, "brti_reference_price": 80607.38816666666, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 4623.21, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4623.21, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:46:18.410504Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.171884, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T15:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 87.10805729166532, "small_mean_absolute_error": 74.15297916666532 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 84.03002083333195, "small_mean_absolute_error": 61.884513020831946 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 82.18219791666463, "small_mean_absolute_error": 65.78095312499863 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.85864583333095, "small_mean_absolute_error": 56.85409583333312 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.004593944722328658, "return_12h": 0.00015445965644866888, "return_24h": -0.011109311692215962, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0009759835345448664, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0005056915770714765, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00032360146486165586, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0017803116896494275, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T15:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:20.192569Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T15:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T15:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80607.39, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T15:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T15:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "74184.84", "open_time": "2026-09-20T14:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T14:45:00.654Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "127191.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4188.27", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6556.97", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,607.39" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T15:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:20.192569Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T15:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T15:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80607.39, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T15:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T15:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "85508.09", "open_time": "2026-09-20T14:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T14:45:00.654Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "148100.85", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4623.21", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6126.43", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,607.39" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 4623.21, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 252, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 95.76, "trading_fee": 4.16, "total_deployed": 99.92, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 252.0, "gross_pnl": 156.24, "net_pnl": 152.07999999999998, "roi": 1.522017614091273, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 38.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 39.65, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 62.0, "net_pnl": 60.35, "roi": 1.5220680958385877, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T14:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0013452324618070666, "return_30m": 0.0005563688250129761, "return_60m": 0.0012453970197157105, "return_120m": 0.003391948527606825, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0005547314117961832, "close_vs_ema6": 0.000911246407913735, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0014336235702780975, "ema3_slope": 0.0005550393095357098, "ema6_slope": 0.0003646314708127818, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010665181596392626, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007563582307614868, "return_acceleration": 0.002133036319278525 } }, { "id": 69, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1515Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:16:16.477674Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201130", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201130-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201130-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:15:00Z", "strike": 80741.2, "brti_reference_price": 80741.1955, "yes_ask": 0.68, "no_ask": 0.33, "yes_ask_size": 6386.22, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.68, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6386.22, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 143, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:16:16.629071Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.151397, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T15:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 104.92510416666482, "small_mean_absolute_error": 107.89580729166482 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.18649218749852, "small_mean_absolute_error": 75.53219531249852 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 86.28940624999814, "small_mean_absolute_error": 82.82391145833147 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 68.02351249999847, "small_mean_absolute_error": 62.847911458332234 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.006146604060728533, "return_12h": 0.006024419628975375, "return_24h": -0.011611404802327585, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0024744973731516406, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0011311929394075548, "ema12_slope_3h": -5.8815183980653885e-05, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0014824695147276357, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:21.348525Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80741.2, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T15:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "102548.41", "open_time": "2026-09-20T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T15:15:00.604301Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "128475.70", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1201.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8313.50", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,741.20" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:21.348525Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80741.2, "last_price_dollars": "0.6700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T15:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "107912.41", "open_time": "2026-09-20T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T15:15:00.604301Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "137428.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6386.22", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7809.79", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,741.20" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.67, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.68, "yes_ask_size": 6386.22, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.33, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 143, "entry_price": 0.68, "gross_cost": 97.24000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.18, "total_deployed": 99.42000000000002, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -97.24000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.42000000000002, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.68, "gross_cost": 68.0, "trading_fee": 1.53, "total_deployed": 69.53, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -68.0, "net_pnl": -69.53, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0012301200125095502, "return_30m": 0.0016599884499008954, "return_60m": 0.0022172808407372457, "return_120m": 0.002535515997952986, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0008605777509609336, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0015624317431195411, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0023753815848763793, "ema3_slope": 0.0008613189829140833, "ema6_slope": 0.0006253635323814066, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00040038985760504353, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008513466561562583, "return_acceleration": 0.0008007797152100871 } }, { "id": 70, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:46:19.596541Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201200-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:45:00Z", "strike": 80813.17, "brti_reference_price": 80813.17399999998, "yes_ask": 0.64, "no_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 5607.37, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.64, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5607.37, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 152, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:46:19.774106Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.177565, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 57.17307812499712, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.75975520832799 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.14056770833122, "small_mean_absolute_error": 98.95636718749665 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.07770659722034, "small_mean_absolute_error": 82.5095937499973 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.39233854166305, "small_mean_absolute_error": 71.52883124999717 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.003744626088211467, "return_12h": 0.005886616169861192, "return_24h": -0.012892382159052418, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0031754468489664234, "close_vs_ema24": 0.001980883100965114, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0003370581805626216, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0012689913444717815, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:22.635881Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80813.17, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "96009.50", "open_time": "2026-09-20T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T15:45:00.647285Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "151565.31", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6417.59", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "705.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,813.17" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:22.635881Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80813.17, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "104347.34", "open_time": "2026-09-20T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T15:45:00.647285Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "177980.98", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5607.37", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3536.68", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,813.17" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.63, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 5607.37, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.37, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 152, "entry_price": 0.64, "gross_cost": 97.28, "trading_fee": 2.46, "total_deployed": 99.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 152.0, "gross_pnl": 54.72, "net_pnl": 52.260000000000005, "roi": 0.5239623019851615, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.64, "gross_cost": 64.0, "trading_fee": 1.62, "total_deployed": 65.62, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 36.0, "net_pnl": 34.379999999999995, "roi": 0.5239256324291374, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0019697377720295783, "return_30m": 0.0008914718137902344, "return_60m": 0.0025529400966055604, "return_120m": 0.0038015165403091356, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0009297674864026106, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0016535608305741079, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002595510460702055, "ema3_slope": 0.000930632758483263, "ema6_slope": 0.0006618621039298223, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0015229420021933837, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011298193996722666, "return_acceleration": 0.0030458840043867674 } }, { "id": 71, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:01:18.598454Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201215-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "strike": 80898.46, "brti_reference_price": 80898.46100000002, "yes_ask": 0.3, "no_ask": 0.71, "yes_ask_size": 7007.65, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.3, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7007.65, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 317, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:01:18.828670Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.230216, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T16:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 74.3361614583373, "small_mean_absolute_error": 157.68260416666817 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 82.97475520833359, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.82961718749903 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 74.03783854166493, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.35839756944188 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.5197791666651, "small_mean_absolute_error": 80.88478749999922 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0056658705974417245, "return_12h": 0.005403408734935278, "return_24h": -0.008639112679261873, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004060633643722333, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0029755383701974836, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.000552191232403354, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0011265237842505993, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:23.82954Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80898.46, "last_price_dollars": "0.3000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "79665.03", "open_time": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T16:00:00.623054Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "140502.70", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5310.65", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6310.47", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,898.46" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:23.82954Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80898.46, "last_price_dollars": "0.3000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "82581.32", "open_time": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T16:00:00.623054Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "146070.85", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7007.65", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4623.86", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,898.46" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.29, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.3, "yes_ask_size": 7007.65, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.71, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 317, "entry_price": 0.3, "gross_cost": 95.1, "trading_fee": 4.66, "total_deployed": 99.75999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 317.0, "gross_pnl": 221.9, "net_pnl": 217.24, "roi": 2.1776263031275063, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.3, "gross_cost": 30.0, "trading_fee": 1.47, "total_deployed": 31.47, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 70.0, "net_pnl": 68.53, "roi": 2.1776294884016525, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T15:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0010553601074998475, "return_30m": 0.003027176662196318, "return_60m": 0.0031802887518224132, "return_120m": 0.004582778993948544, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0009920692379699059, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0019346916564435546, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003089779210415866, "ema3_slope": 0.0009930544167084943, "ema6_slope": 0.0007744760114885008, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004571888322648654, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011333924354903764, "return_acceleration": -0.0009143776645297308 } }, { "id": 72, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1615Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:16:28.791658Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201230", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201230-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201230-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:15:00Z", "strike": 81147.2, "brti_reference_price": 81147.20483333335, "yes_ask": 0.62, "no_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 3851.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.62, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3851.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 157, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:16:28.995224Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.203566, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T16:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 146.54357291667475, "small_mean_absolute_error": 232.57556250000562 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 125.73433854166979, "small_mean_absolute_error": 170.23568489583522 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 96.9721857638906, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.87998437500089 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.02426145833306, "small_mean_absolute_error": 103.37911354166718 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.01014420549011863, "return_12h": 0.009376976952546912, "return_24h": -0.007007219760982952, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006854134983185878, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00593375346559033, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0008389444209535579, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0008953271866664059, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T16:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:24.462532Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T16:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81147.2, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T16:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "141273.97", "open_time": "2026-09-20T16:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T16:15:01.203971Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "195660.27", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8993.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2308.07", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,147.20" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T16:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:24.462532Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T16:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81147.2, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T16:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "156678.34", "open_time": "2026-09-20T16:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T16:15:01.203971Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "251064.28", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3851.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5165.33", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,147.20" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.61, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 3851.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.39, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 157, "entry_price": 0.62, "gross_cost": 97.34, "trading_fee": 2.59, "total_deployed": 99.93, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 157.0, "gross_pnl": 59.66, "net_pnl": 57.06999999999999, "roi": 0.5710997698388871, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.62, "gross_cost": 62.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 63.65, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 38.0, "net_pnl": 36.35, "roi": 0.5710919088766693, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0030747659505330205, "return_30m": 0.0041333710433568704, "return_60m": 0.005028527640928315, "return_120m": 0.007256958139661096, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.002030810202040767, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0035773069085143216, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005219234846963294, "ema3_slope": 0.0020349427846082513, "ema6_slope": 0.0014329732374305237, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010097029215165865, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0015245075914588429, "return_acceleration": 0.002019405843033173 } }, { "id": 73, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1630Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:31:18.385918Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201245-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:30:00Z", "strike": 81207.23, "brti_reference_price": 81207.22683333332, "yes_ask": 0.31, "no_ask": 0.7, "yes_ask_size": 6884.67, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.31, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6884.67, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 307, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:31:18.652131Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.266213, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T16:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 208.81549479167006, "small_mean_absolute_error": 261.45026041667006 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 147.2564088541676, "small_mean_absolute_error": 186.69134895833304 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 112.76444097222338, "small_mean_absolute_error": 140.61820312500035 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 103.9175083333328, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.16675312499937 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.010837975914189668, "return_12h": 0.009944453811301601, "return_24h": -0.007637272621346725, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0072864548532649565, "close_vs_ema24": 0.006539227925601576, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0011696600327062434, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0006545870134262444, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:24.954667Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81207.23, "last_price_dollars": "0.3200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "103396.28", "open_time": "2026-09-20T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T16:30:00.555324Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "160564.31", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5805.97", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2359.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,207.23" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:24.954667Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81207.23, "last_price_dollars": "0.3100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T16:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "116334.60", "open_time": "2026-09-20T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T16:30:00.555324Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "182953.78", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6884.67", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2544.49", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,207.23" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.3, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.31, "yes_ask_size": 6884.67, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.7, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 307, "entry_price": 0.31, "gross_cost": 95.17, "trading_fee": 4.6, "total_deployed": 99.77, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 307.0, "gross_pnl": 211.82999999999998, "net_pnl": 207.23000000000002, "roi": 2.0770772777387996, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.31, "gross_cost": 31.0, "trading_fee": 1.5, "total_deployed": 32.5, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 69.0, "net_pnl": 67.5, "roi": 2.076923076923077, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0007396681145486195, "return_30m": 0.003816708371415123, "return_60m": 0.006855438884119547, "return_120m": 0.008796727948436667, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0013840719109374788, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0030816403111322277, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005040791077268958, "ema3_slope": 0.0013859902210713315, "ema6_slope": 0.0012341774408339834, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0011675489179922005, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009083153516208548, "return_acceleration": -0.002335097835984401 } }, { "id": 74, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1645Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:48:18.098602Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201300-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:45:00Z", "strike": 81389.71, "brti_reference_price": 81389.71416666666, "yes_ask": 0.24, "no_ask": 0.77, "yes_ask_size": 326.32, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.24, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 326.32, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 395, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:48:18.273674Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.175072, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 287.0579583333383, "small_mean_absolute_error": 287.5774895833383 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 172.11551822916772, "small_mean_absolute_error": 205.66862239583315 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 143.77969791666692, "small_mean_absolute_error": 161.8300746527772 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 118.15552604166587, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.73602083333245 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.013143984603891878, "return_12h": 0.012622155337767005, "return_24h": -0.005434741654687825, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00915664424314766, "close_vs_ema24": 0.008618033698952532, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0015692949850167892, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0003714822736876622, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:25.36381Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81389.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.2700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T17:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "268243.64", "open_time": "2026-09-20T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T16:45:00.596691Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "491837.69", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "201.00", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6150.68", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,389.71" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:25.36381Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81389.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.2300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T17:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "271066.31", "open_time": "2026-09-20T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T16:45:00.596691Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "500579.35", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "326.32", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5335.15", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,389.71" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.23, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.24, "yes_ask_size": 326.32, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.77, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0022471809523536557, "return_30m": 0.002988511235000546, "return_60m": 0.007134234904158987, "return_120m": 0.009705388275109916, "consecutive_up_closes": 5, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0018138854025546713, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0038054459352272474, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006169402381524414, "ema3_slope": 0.001817181561662995, "ema6_slope": 0.001524498933398677, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007537564189025181, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.000935690657632627, "return_acceleration": 0.0015075128378050362 } }, { "id": 75, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1700Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:01:54.844526Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201315", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201315-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201315-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:00:00Z", "strike": 81287.03, "brti_reference_price": 81287.02566666665, "yes_ask": 0.44, "no_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 4976.22, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.44, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4976.22, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 218, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:01:55.117719Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.273193, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T17:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 284.24599999999555, "small_mean_absolute_error": 251.84365624999555 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 179.29108072916642, "small_mean_absolute_error": 204.76313020833186 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.06517013888757, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.50096354166453 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 122.19266666666518, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.70753645833175 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.012260779158826951, "return_12h": 0.010879839504196243, "return_24h": -0.006455521239912221, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007559198628870112, "close_vs_ema24": 0.007192952783123596, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0018892556828478124, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0001123411213683756, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T17:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:25.696947Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T17:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T17:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81287.03, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T17:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T17:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "85946.02", "open_time": "2026-09-20T17:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T17:00:00.527159Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "134688.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7715.11", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2584.17", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,287.03" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T17:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:25.696947Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T17:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T17:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81287.03, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T17:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T17:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "146093.21", "open_time": "2026-09-20T17:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T17:00:00.527159Z", "volume_24h_fp": "115813.17", "volume_fp": "217958.06", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4976.22", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5475.04", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,287.03" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 4976.22, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.57, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 218, "entry_price": 0.44, "gross_cost": 95.92, "trading_fee": 3.77, "total_deployed": 99.69, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.92, "net_pnl": -99.69, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.44, "gross_cost": 44.0, "trading_fee": 1.73, "total_deployed": 45.73, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -44.0, "net_pnl": -45.73, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T16:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0012616889130452336, "return_30m": 0.000982656796015391, "return_60m": 0.00480311568184999, "return_120m": 0.007998679728449032, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00027487838630158024, "close_vs_ema6": 0.001812225192442396, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004142971160521647, "ema3_slope": 0.000274953965203828, "ema6_slope": 0.0007254159237819469, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0017544349326994446, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0016494812111887025, "return_acceleration": -0.0035088698653988892 } }, { "id": 76, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260920T1745Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:49:27.656249Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-20T18:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201400", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201400-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201400-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:45:00Z", "strike": 81352.42, "brti_reference_price": 81352.4215, "yes_ask": 0.42, "no_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 10134.25, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.42, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10134.25, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 228, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:49:28.037863Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.381614, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-20T18:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 114.33742708333011, "small_mean_absolute_error": 167.4839166666643 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 200.69769270833422, "small_mean_absolute_error": 227.5307031250013 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 152.85615451388853, "small_mean_absolute_error": 192.94038715277688 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 125.3257010416659, "small_mean_absolute_error": 140.5180374999989 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.011493670143529755, "return_12h": 0.010442784046253983, "return_24h": -0.0015143657145466616, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00755482636635274, "close_vs_ema24": 0.007606294831197236, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.002652878410383863, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0005408011032077553, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:26.646133Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T18:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T18:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81352.42, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T18:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T18:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "161886.25", "open_time": "2026-09-20T17:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T17:45:00.6475Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "323328.08", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7086.47", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "901.69", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,352.42" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-20T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-19T20:01:26.646133Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-20T18:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-27T18:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81352.42, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T18:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-20T18:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "170891.34", "open_time": "2026-09-20T17:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on Sep 20, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on September 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP201400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-20T17:45:00.6475Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "385581.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10134.25", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "26.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,352.42" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.41, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 10134.25, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.59, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 228, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 95.75999999999999, "trading_fee": 3.89, "total_deployed": 99.64999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.75999999999999, "net_pnl": -99.64999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 42.0, "trading_fee": 1.71, "total_deployed": 43.71, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -42.0, "net_pnl": -43.71, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-20T17:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.002406595495315633, "return_30m": 0.0021166594997577004, "return_60m": -0.0004581987668650367, "return_120m": 0.006672767239658484, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0010000321315974947, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0017525868524264077, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003542247444120683, "ema3_slope": 0.0010010331969592112, "ema6_slope": 0.0007015265354435307, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0013479177037019618, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001510814288328673, "return_acceleration": 0.0026958354074039237 } }, { "id": 77, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260921T1930Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:31:18.359506Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211545", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211545-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211545-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:30:00Z", "strike": 86336.98, "brti_reference_price": 86336.97633333332, "yes_ask": 0.57, "no_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 7077.61, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7077.61, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:31:18.630465Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.270959, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-21T19:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.75, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 421.5554895833302, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.04512500000055 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 301.30202604166516, "small_mean_absolute_error": 140.10991927083705 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 258.04474999999485, "small_mean_absolute_error": 172.10482986110947 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 261.6782687499966, "small_mean_absolute_error": 183.3265239583321 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.016497074949010315, "return_12h": 0.05803426843099535, "return_24h": 0.06465307995239944, "close_vs_ema12": 0.016421352391682298, "close_vs_ema24": 0.030696115829478288, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.008142291414136249, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.016666201704732986, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T19:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:48.646977Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T19:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86336.98, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T19:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T19:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "108485.69", "open_time": "2026-09-21T19:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T19:30:01.021879Z", "volume_24h_fp": "151463.03", "volume_fp": "177410.21", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6958.41", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6909.57", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,336.98" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T19:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:48.646977Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T19:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T19:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86336.98, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T19:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T19:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "113570.16", "open_time": "2026-09-21T19:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T19:30:01.021879Z", "volume_24h_fp": "151463.03", "volume_fp": "187602.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7077.61", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1581.15", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,336.98" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 7077.61, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.44, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 170, "entry_price": 0.57, "gross_cost": 96.89999999999999, "trading_fee": 2.92, "total_deployed": 99.82, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 170.0, "gross_pnl": 73.10000000000001, "net_pnl": 70.18, "roi": 0.7030655179322782, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.57, "gross_cost": 56.99999999999999, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 58.71999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 43.00000000000001, "net_pnl": 41.28000000000001, "roi": 0.70299727520436, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0033417210259469865, "return_30m": 0.003254692032920614, "return_60m": 0.004885939191590749, "return_120m": 0.004938796115924404, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0018054014188046974, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00285108439729731, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0040015374565227635, "ema3_slope": 0.0018086667883905339, "ema6_slope": 0.0011417358330065852, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0017142300804910415, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012955114957548712, "return_acceleration": 0.003428460160982083 } }, { "id": 78, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260921T1945Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:46:17.426973Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211600", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211600-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211600-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:45:00Z", "strike": 86546.14, "brti_reference_price": 86546.13983333335, "yes_ask": 0.64, "no_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 5521.04, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.64, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5521.04, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 152, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:46:17.619885Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.192912, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-21T20:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 482.05206250000265, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.49151562500265 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 344.38342447916875, "small_mean_absolute_error": 154.64160416667073 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 284.85793402777443, "small_mean_absolute_error": 177.24027951388902 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 262.99239479166425, "small_mean_absolute_error": 184.22307187499973 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.017659703631499157, "return_12h": 0.061990237160523654, "return_24h": 0.06570951668383684, "close_vs_ema12": 0.018099059916054427, "close_vs_ema24": 0.03248649141902127, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.008134672981174207, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.016687329382719662, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T20:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:49.473077Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T20:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86546.14, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T20:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "153213.83", "open_time": "2026-09-21T19:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T19:45:01.014062Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "220848.35", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5603.17", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1390.05", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,546.14" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T20:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:49.473077Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T20:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86546.14, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T20:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "172564.35", "open_time": "2026-09-21T19:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T19:45:01.014062Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "256655.26", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5521.04", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "619.94", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,546.14" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.63, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 5521.04, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.37, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 152, "entry_price": 0.64, "gross_cost": 97.28, "trading_fee": 2.46, "total_deployed": 99.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 152.0, "gross_pnl": 54.72, "net_pnl": 52.260000000000005, "roi": 0.5239623019851615, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.64, "gross_cost": 64.0, "trading_fee": 1.62, "total_deployed": 65.62, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 36.0, "net_pnl": 34.379999999999995, "roi": 0.5239256324291374, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T19:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0024226410152756728, "return_30m": 0.00577245783164182, "return_60m": 0.00679773697526298, "return_120m": 0.007401284238815586, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0021117392570046967, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0037661981451007076, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00543866284897665, "ema3_slope": 0.0021162081368033547, "ema6_slope": 0.0015087521618777355, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00045954000533565686, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001300230032043432, "return_acceleration": -0.0009190800106713137 } }, { "id": 79, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260921T2015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:16:18.518071Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211630", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211630-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211630-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:15:00Z", "strike": 86761.56, "brti_reference_price": 86761.56366666665, "yes_ask": 0.41, "no_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 4753.07, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4753.07, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:16:18.693783Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.175712, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-21T20:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 417.03480208332985, "small_mean_absolute_error": 220.33948958332985 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 342.77238020833283, "small_mean_absolute_error": 171.539658854168 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 297.310685763885, "small_mean_absolute_error": 167.73014062499956 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 243.2863052083303, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.07713854166576 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.01717433004721025, "return_12h": 0.05976914740948658, "return_24h": 0.06935094086170657, "close_vs_ema12": 0.019045800666392054, "close_vs_ema24": 0.033627585879624444, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00811971243278986, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.01663043979633927, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:51.102517Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86761.56, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "139102.68", "open_time": "2026-09-21T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T20:15:01.11243Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "232634.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5212.91", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2310.06", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,761.56" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:51.102517Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86761.56, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "146019.98", "open_time": "2026-09-21T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T20:15:01.11243Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "250145.84", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4753.07", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2228.51", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,761.56" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.4, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 4753.07, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.6, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 234, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 95.94, "trading_fee": 3.97, "total_deployed": 99.91, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 234.0, "gross_pnl": 138.06, "net_pnl": 134.09, "roi": 1.3421078971073968, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 41.0, "trading_fee": 1.7, "total_deployed": 42.7, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 59.0, "net_pnl": 57.3, "roi": 1.3419203747072599, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0023129683937075374, "return_30m": 0.0024891212219073644, "return_60m": 0.008275947400840478, "return_120m": 0.008890550135411512, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.001726131579661505, "close_vs_ema6": 0.003660670100927632, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005976914186288651, "ema3_slope": 0.0017291162618457978, "ema6_slope": 0.0014664152653780516, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010686110306100671, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011606764660751598, "return_acceleration": 0.0021372220612201343 } }, { "id": 80, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260921T2030Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:31:23.496461Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211645", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211645-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211645-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:30:00Z", "strike": 87284.95, "brti_reference_price": 87284.9515, "yes_ask": 0.24, "no_ask": 0.77, "yes_ask_size": 11131.04, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.24, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 11131.04, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 395, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:31:23.676185Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.179724, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-21T20:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 405.6125781249975, "small_mean_absolute_error": 295.3586718749975 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 413.58403385416386, "small_mean_absolute_error": 209.70189843749904 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 336.07221006944263, "small_mean_absolute_error": 191.85950347222388 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 271.64027708332867, "small_mean_absolute_error": 192.23579791666415 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.018344909122558928, "return_12h": 0.06148065479871678, "return_24h": 0.07498615880913118, "close_vs_ema12": 0.024140063108689436, "close_vs_ema24": 0.03900893800279337, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.008445559110862089, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.01666709974637648, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T20:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:51.493482Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T20:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 87284.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.2200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T20:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "175431.87", "open_time": "2026-09-21T20:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T20:30:01.0071Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "254760.45", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6296.48", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8494.63", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $87,284.95" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T20:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:51.493482Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T20:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 87284.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.2400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T20:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T20:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "187604.30", "open_time": "2026-09-21T20:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T20:30:01.0071Z", "volume_24h_fp": "229034.13", "volume_fp": "286678.60", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "11131.04", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4967.57", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $87,284.95" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.23, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.24, "yes_ask_size": 11131.04, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.77, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 395, "entry_price": 0.24, "gross_cost": 94.8, "trading_fee": 5.05, "total_deployed": 99.85, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -94.8, "net_pnl": -99.85, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.24, "gross_cost": 24.0, "trading_fee": 1.28, "total_deployed": 25.28, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -24.0, "net_pnl": -25.28, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.006032485022332779, "return_30m": 0.008359406363232624, "return_60m": 0.01097994401618485, "return_120m": 0.015919530546565586, "consecutive_up_closes": 5, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.003869483666139484, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0069202466595150725, "close_vs_ema12": 0.010173455046637025, "ema3_slope": 0.0038845147324475526, "ema6_slope": 0.0027757823030902795, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0018597583143126206, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002103500768443337, "return_acceleration": 0.0037195166286252412 } }, { "id": 81, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260921T2045Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:46:17.886230Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-21T21:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211700", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211700-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211700-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:45:00Z", "strike": 86923.58, "brti_reference_price": 86923.58350000001, "yes_ask": 0.59, "no_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 7915.9, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.42, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 228, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:46:18.073962Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.187732, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 339.5626041666583, "small_mean_absolute_error": 247.98252604165828 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 410.80733333333046, "small_mean_absolute_error": 202.23702083333046 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 342.7764843749986, "small_mean_absolute_error": 185.75524479166657 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 268.4227218749962, "small_mean_absolute_error": 188.34285208333168 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.013587411684036876, "return_12h": 0.03984378462651006, "return_24h": 0.07150695265359808, "close_vs_ema12": 0.019072288509712765, "close_vs_ema24": 0.033967428240239794, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.008584425852599775, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.016601254868150006, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:51.841274Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86923.58, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T21:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "114384.60", "open_time": "2026-09-21T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T20:45:01.002036Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "196785.67", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1500.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8469.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,923.58" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-21T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:01:51.841274Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-21T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-28T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86923.58, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T21:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-21T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "145795.23", "open_time": "2026-09-21T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP211700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-21T20:45:01.002036Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "241668.74", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7915.90", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7039.75", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,923.58" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.58, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 7915.9, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.42, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-21T20:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.004140095099897989, "return_30m": 0.0018674148607535912, "return_60m": 0.0043611843046209575, "return_120m": 0.011188567463687349, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00014333627440499264, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0019638140755084965, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00506484309530042, "ema3_slope": -0.0001433157320619438, "ema6_slope": 0.0007861431658091611, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.005086290061115384, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.003678092340432068, "return_acceleration": -0.010172580122230768 } }, { "id": 82, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260922T0230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:31:17.489910Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212245-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:30:00Z", "strike": 85735.32, "brti_reference_price": 85735.3155, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 10879.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10879.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:31:17.673565Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183655, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-22T02:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 171.07189062500765, "small_mean_absolute_error": 206.96056250000765 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 269.98903645833343, "small_mean_absolute_error": 377.48355468750015 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 215.65873090277697, "small_mean_absolute_error": 388.30818750000134 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 175.33488229166832, "small_mean_absolute_error": 357.5479999999981 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.017753759077244857, "return_12h": 0.00026545894845808604, "return_24h": 0.05310149501456607, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0012152711925659254, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009945948896861623, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0008619387012607227, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.010512017288185405, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T02:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:06.197851Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T02:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T02:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85735.32, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T02:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T02:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109982.61", "open_time": "2026-09-22T02:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T02:30:01.006274Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "192434.50", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7865.08", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2183.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,735.32" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T02:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:06.197851Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T02:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T02:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85735.32, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T02:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T02:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "119137.42", "open_time": "2026-09-22T02:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T02:30:01.006274Z", "volume_24h_fp": "178991.70", "volume_fp": "207884.73", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10879.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "398.85", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,735.32" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 10879.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 252, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 95.76, "trading_fee": 4.16, "total_deployed": 99.92, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 252.0, "gross_pnl": 156.24, "net_pnl": 152.07999999999998, "roi": 1.522017614091273, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 38.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 39.65, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 62.0, "net_pnl": 60.35, "roi": 1.5220680958385877, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.001790011693154403, "return_30m": 0.0022288223707576105, "return_60m": 0.0001862628856674764, "return_120m": -0.007635970135873027, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007194695000891649, "close_vs_ema6": -2.1818249154925695e-05, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002159887883839251, "ema3_slope": 0.0007199875091425945, "ema6_slope": -8.727223496873826e-06, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.000675992544147852, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011829787461450822, "return_acceleration": 0.001351985088295704 } }, { "id": 83, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260922T0245Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:46:17.463773Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212300-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:45:00Z", "strike": 85793.93, "brti_reference_price": 85793.92983333334, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 9493.56, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 9493.56, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:46:17.642396Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.178623, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.93294791667722, "small_mean_absolute_error": 227.92318229167722 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 266.26564322916965, "small_mean_absolute_error": 331.48086458333637 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 224.13951215277726, "small_mean_absolute_error": 380.3313368055581 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 175.1669197916679, "small_mean_absolute_error": 366.7749614583328 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.012995939895490638, "return_12h": 0.00041489060296506786, "return_24h": 0.0560092056217778, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0005107148987615329, "close_vs_ema24": 0.010414940548640672, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0005107240906367938, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.010010931220824526, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:06.750306Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T03:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85793.93, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T03:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "97084.32", "open_time": "2026-09-22T02:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T02:45:01.005562Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "185465.32", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6954.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4876.26", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,793.93" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:06.750306Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T03:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85793.93, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T03:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "111424.77", "open_time": "2026-09-22T02:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T02:45:01.005562Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "213807.54", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9493.56", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5783.37", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,793.93" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 9493.56, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.14, "net_pnl": -99.78, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -46.0, "net_pnl": -47.74, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0006836661531075539, "return_30m": 0.0024749016166700777, "return_60m": 0.0016339521832506865, "return_120m": -0.005933663449919413, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007013215679410045, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00047264847272421306, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001250644481025076, "ema3_slope": 0.0007018137650709466, "ema6_slope": 0.00018909513930109867, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005531727700234246, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010981633502723316, "return_acceleration": -0.0011063455400468492 } }, { "id": 84, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260922T0300Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:01:16.281795Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212315", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212315-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212315-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "strike": 85724.53, "brti_reference_price": 85724.52600000001, "yes_ask": 0.52, "no_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 10033.2, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.52, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10033.2, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 186, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:01:16.453672Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.171877, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-22T03:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.53595833334475, "small_mean_absolute_error": 207.47150520834475 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 193.0992630208384, "small_mean_absolute_error": 216.11428906250512 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 215.6502256944465, "small_mean_absolute_error": 375.827560763891 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 163.51390937500256, "small_mean_absolute_error": 356.7985135416675 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.014267785630093899, "return_12h": -0.0010074429989288536, "return_24h": 0.054579616191299696, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0012654822066047178, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009397762628653883, "ema12_slope_3h": 7.120509214253445e-05, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.009493424174390253, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T03:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:07.131725Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T03:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85724.53, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T03:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "92274.80", "open_time": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T03:00:01.092578Z", "volume_24h_fp": "104806.92", "volume_fp": "172643.80", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10033.20", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9.65", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,724.53" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T03:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:07.131725Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T03:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85724.53, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T03:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "92274.80", "open_time": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T03:00:01.092578Z", "volume_24h_fp": "104806.92", "volume_fp": "172643.80", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10033.20", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9.65", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,724.53" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.51, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 10033.2, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.49, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 186, "entry_price": 0.52, "gross_cost": 96.72, "trading_fee": 3.25, "total_deployed": 99.97, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.72, "net_pnl": -99.97, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.52, "gross_cost": 52.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 53.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -52.0, "net_pnl": -53.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T02:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0008089597185739761, "return_30m": -0.00012584662384529377, "return_60m": 0.0021026952571419066, "return_120m": -0.0016178461240659026, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -5.410567303110181e-05, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00024051856560702856, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0017424377848573869, "ema3_slope": -5.4102745765560734e-05, "ema6_slope": -9.619817126438335e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.000746312935840765, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009236396146239205, "return_acceleration": -0.00149262587168153 } }, { "id": 85, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260922T0315Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:16:16.190048Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212330", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212330-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212330-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:15:00Z", "strike": 85513.45, "brti_reference_price": 85513.4505, "yes_ask": 0.57, "no_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 10796.96, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10796.96, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:16:16.360667Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.170619, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-22T03:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.75, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.93763020833649, "small_mean_absolute_error": 181.1427083333365 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 146.5056614583391, "small_mean_absolute_error": 181.8507656250058 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 219.39467013889103, "small_mean_absolute_error": 338.8695312500022 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 170.26780937500226, "small_mean_absolute_error": 343.80202291666717 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.012381492630454738, "return_12h": -0.008525124398447659, "return_24h": 0.05229234409166783, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003573137518285474, "close_vs_ema24": 0.006768989954672566, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0003685184626875948, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.009029569689988692, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T03:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:07.521477Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T03:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85513.45, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T03:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "127910.67", "open_time": "2026-09-22T03:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T03:15:01.005017Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "206551.53", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7876.07", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7483.29", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,513.45" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T03:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:07.521477Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T03:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85513.45, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T03:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "136587.09", "open_time": "2026-09-22T03:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T03:15:01.005017Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "218130.37", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10796.96", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "11.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,513.45" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 10796.96, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.44, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 170, "entry_price": 0.57, "gross_cost": 96.89999999999999, "trading_fee": 2.92, "total_deployed": 99.82, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 170.0, "gross_pnl": 73.10000000000001, "net_pnl": 70.18, "roi": 0.7030655179322782, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.57, "gross_cost": 56.99999999999999, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 58.71999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 43.00000000000001, "net_pnl": 41.28000000000001, "roi": 0.70299727520436, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0024622533345941555, "return_30m": -0.0032692211894035372, "return_60m": -0.0008024105735402465, "return_120m": -0.0026512649081350537, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0012596977348370286, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0019316196542247255, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003556483543913802, "ema3_slope": -0.0012581128928756957, "ema6_slope": -0.000772051337874502, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008266468080100897, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001599189871385351, "return_acceleration": -0.0016532936160201794 } }, { "id": 86, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260922T0330Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:31:17.421399Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212345", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212345-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212345-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:30:00Z", "strike": 85589.56, "brti_reference_price": 85589.55833333333, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 9704.69, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 9704.69, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:31:17.608074Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.186675, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-22T03:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.28544791667082, "small_mean_absolute_error": 190.93779166667082 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 148.67866927083924, "small_mean_absolute_error": 198.94917708333924 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 222.08784027777924, "small_mean_absolute_error": 315.301633680557 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 169.6788375000011, "small_mean_absolute_error": 332.36773854166603 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.011852717906062682, "return_12h": -0.0028626014135609834, "return_24h": 0.051837937543792734, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002576944908022849, "close_vs_ema24": 0.007505660925986923, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0007362283670815373, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.008586712447705036, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T03:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:08.839228Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T03:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85589.56, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T03:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "123890.43", "open_time": "2026-09-22T03:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T03:30:01.033Z", "volume_24h_fp": "149307.09", "volume_fp": "194332.30", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2431.45", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6854.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,589.56" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T03:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-20T20:02:08.839228Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T03:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85589.56, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T03:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T03:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "125572.96", "open_time": "2026-09-22T03:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on Sep 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 PM EDT on September 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP212345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T03:30:01.033Z", "volume_24h_fp": "149307.09", "volume_fp": "198347.18", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9704.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "694.29", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,589.56" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 9704.69, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 252, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 95.76, "trading_fee": 4.16, "total_deployed": 99.92, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.76, "net_pnl": -99.92, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 38.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 39.65, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -38.0, "net_pnl": -39.65, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T03:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0008900100848265868, "return_30m": -0.001574434680066683, "return_60m": -0.0017000831666229566, "return_120m": -0.0015141369433518959, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00018543877801391329, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0007454570236159475, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002259853261702194, "ema3_slope": -0.00018540439684899823, "ema6_slope": -0.0002980939229629831, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0016761317097103712, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013468682990760961, "return_acceleration": 0.0033522634194207424 } }, { "id": 87, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260922T1530Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:31:16.406565Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221145", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221145-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221145-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:30:00Z", "strike": 86291.3, "brti_reference_price": 86291.30183333335, "yes_ask": 0.5, "no_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 5189.62, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5189.62, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:31:16.574825Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.16826, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-22T15:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 232.1092447916817, "small_mean_absolute_error": 285.6522135416817 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 296.13305989584296, "small_mean_absolute_error": 287.99093750000793 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 280.8116111111158, "small_mean_absolute_error": 271.0690763888924 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 243.99115937500318, "small_mean_absolute_error": 270.41484375000147 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0047606274068208165, "return_12h": 0.008198938207707895, "return_24h": 0.005312866502043878, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0045582988355810095, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009061445282370517, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0014686309942806286, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.003978766980933912, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T15:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-21T20:01:24.884041Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T15:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T15:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86291.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T15:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T15:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "81613.58", "open_time": "2026-09-22T15:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on Sep 22, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on September 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T15:30:01.000786Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "121893.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7535.16", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5248.15", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,291.30" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T15:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-21T20:01:24.884041Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T15:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T15:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86291.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T15:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T15:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "86964.06", "open_time": "2026-09-22T15:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on Sep 22, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on September 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T15:30:01.000786Z", "volume_24h_fp": "108403.59", "volume_fp": "128459.04", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5189.62", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5183.16", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,291.30" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 5189.62, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.51, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 193, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 96.5, "trading_fee": 3.38, "total_deployed": 99.88, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 193.0, "gross_pnl": 96.5, "net_pnl": 93.12, "roi": 0.932318782539047, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 50.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 51.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 50.0, "net_pnl": 48.25, "roi": 0.9323671497584541, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 3.418664479948319e-06, "return_30m": 0.00080492311273761, "return_60m": 0.003685953624666727, "return_120m": 0.006548383599230823, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0005557611444995114, "close_vs_ema6": 0.001281623874796356, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002105692916746227, "ema3_slope": 0.0005560701867026729, "ema6_slope": 0.0005129124942779839, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0003990415218562138, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002066013611409907, "return_acceleration": -0.0007980830437124276 } }, { "id": 88, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260922T1545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:46:18.273912Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-22T16:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221200-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:45:00Z", "strike": 86512.94, "brti_reference_price": 86512.94066666666, "yes_ask": 0.74, "no_ask": 0.27, "yes_ask_size": 3701.99, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.74, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3701.99, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 132, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:46:18.508579Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.234667, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-22T16:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 274.9747916666747, "small_mean_absolute_error": 393.5490104166747 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 298.60164843750863, "small_mean_absolute_error": 331.3237838541736 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 289.8985086805599, "small_mean_absolute_error": 287.46196354166995 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 260.7686937500024, "small_mean_absolute_error": 288.4954385416684 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.005620938595336078, "return_12h": 0.012258084104032063, "return_24h": 0.005388734142764751, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006845140557764973, "close_vs_ema24": 0.011410219941546007, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0016597239187452484, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.004012969978214764, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-21T20:01:25.178045Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86512.94, "last_price_dollars": "0.6500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T16:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "162477.42", "open_time": "2026-09-22T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Sep 22, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on September 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T15:45:01.006394Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "209991.97", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "0.03", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10022.86", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,512.94" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-21T20:01:25.178045Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86512.94, "last_price_dollars": "0.7400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T16:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "190525.93", "open_time": "2026-09-22T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Sep 22, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on September 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T15:45:01.006394Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "249935.02", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3701.99", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6836.23", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,512.94" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.73, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.74, "yes_ask_size": 3701.99, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.27, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 132, "entry_price": 0.74, "gross_cost": 97.67999999999999, "trading_fee": 1.78, "total_deployed": 99.46, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -97.67999999999999, "net_pnl": -99.46, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.74, "gross_cost": 74.0, "trading_fee": 1.35, "total_deployed": 75.35, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -74.0, "net_pnl": -75.35, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0025684956493228217, "return_30m": 0.002571923094627504, "return_60m": 0.007631507772391188, "return_120m": 0.00706457023590179, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0015604034676699463, "close_vs_ema6": 0.002749409662061053, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003956810366518182, "ema3_slope": 0.0015628421319520136, "ema6_slope": 0.0011009746769901074, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0012825384924214367, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0016381487282064186, "return_acceleration": 0.0025650769848428734 } }, { "id": 89, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260922T1600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-22T16:01:16.801209Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-22T16:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221215-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-22T16:00:00Z", "strike": 86414.09, "brti_reference_price": 86414.08983333333, "yes_ask": 0.58, "no_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 5785.47, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.58, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5785.47, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 167, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-22T16:01:16.968059Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.16685, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-22T16:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 156.67854166667166, "small_mean_absolute_error": 336.41682291667166 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 230.88425000000825, "small_mean_absolute_error": 300.4140026041732 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 293.8439288194495, "small_mean_absolute_error": 297.20686284722615 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 262.5837145833357, "small_mean_absolute_error": 294.46280312500164 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.002239622926764273, "return_12h": 0.009130770706115676, "return_24h": 0.00558151426407183, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005460999631910823, "close_vs_ema24": 0.01004101792348533, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0018017324079067087, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.003975979003919994, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-21T20:01:25.465998Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86414.09, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T16:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "87326.41", "open_time": "2026-09-22T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Sep 22, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T16:00:01.108661Z", "volume_24h_fp": "91593.06", "volume_fp": "143503.21", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6954.64", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6035.11", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,414.09" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-22T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-21T20:01:25.465998Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-22T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-29T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86414.09, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T16:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-22T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "89679.64", "open_time": "2026-09-22T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Sep 22, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on September 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP221215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-22T16:00:01.108661Z", "volume_24h_fp": "91593.06", "volume_fp": "149612.59", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5785.47", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5624.80", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,414.09" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.57, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 5785.47, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.43, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 167, "entry_price": 0.58, "gross_cost": 96.86, "trading_fee": 2.85, "total_deployed": 99.71, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.86, "net_pnl": -99.71, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.58, "gross_cost": 57.99999999999999, "trading_fee": 1.71, "total_deployed": 59.709999999999994, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -57.99999999999999, "net_pnl": -59.709999999999994, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-22T15:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.001142613261918779, "return_30m": 0.001422947590211887, "return_60m": 0.0022290160663531733, "return_120m": 0.0010629114475566581, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0002079603775131389, "close_vs_ema6": 0.001144943179078206, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002376390940723727, "ema3_slope": 0.00020800363402750932, "ema6_slope": 0.0004581871109143876, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0018555544556208003, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013510210401594394, "return_acceleration": -0.0037111089112416007 } }, { "id": 90, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T0445Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T04:46:16.865645Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230100-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T04:45:00Z", "strike": 87161.65, "brti_reference_price": 87161.64733333333, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 4621.95, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4621.95, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T04:46:17.043798Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.178153, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-23T05:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 262.3176145833313, "small_mean_absolute_error": 261.2106979166674 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 299.28429166667047, "small_mean_absolute_error": 301.3323958333385 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 263.42843229167073, "small_mean_absolute_error": 251.96976909722798 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 255.86211145833514, "small_mean_absolute_error": 236.73878750000296 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T04:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.011050234197754527, "return_12h": 0.010424352335515419, "return_24h": 0.01913975558919745, "close_vs_ema12": 0.008353491972316718, "close_vs_ema24": 0.011769080731665715, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0019946847747953633, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.003038824027427278, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T05:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:03:49.247027Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T05:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 87161.65, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T05:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "122554.50", "open_time": "2026-09-23T04:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T04:45:01.024581Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "191584.54", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9191.33", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6148.77", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $87,161.65" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T05:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:03:49.247027Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T05:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 87161.65, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T05:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "144913.08", "open_time": "2026-09-23T04:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T04:45:01.024581Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "242668.74", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4621.95", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3017.77", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $87,161.65" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.44, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 4621.95, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.56, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 209.0, "gross_pnl": 112.86, "net_pnl": 109.22, "roi": 1.0946081379033874, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 54.0, "net_pnl": 52.26, "roi": 1.0946795140343526, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T04:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0011519404532145394, "return_30m": 0.003691935464879892, "return_60m": 0.003787282945706849, "return_120m": 0.008030646574827882, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0014055684781586475, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0029405694159239104, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004738715317748721, "ema3_slope": 0.001407546881687205, "ema6_slope": 0.0011776129073692854, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0006925660010284052, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0015239324601232854, "return_acceleration": -0.0013851320020568103 } }, { "id": 91, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T0500Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:01:16.915790Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230115-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:00:00Z", "strike": 87176.95, "brti_reference_price": 87176.952, "yes_ask": 0.34, "no_ask": 0.67, "yes_ask_size": 684.26, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.34, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 684.26, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 281, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:01:17.101964Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.186174, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-23T05:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 266.35957812500055, "small_mean_absolute_error": 324.26973437500055 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 271.6273593750029, "small_mean_absolute_error": 306.339526041671 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 271.0247690972271, "small_mean_absolute_error": 277.56985937500576 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 254.6747177083358, "small_mean_absolute_error": 246.56311250000363 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T04:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.012163653242064587, "return_12h": 0.008306752211651336, "return_24h": 0.02061579598654384, "close_vs_ema12": 0.008179514587526304, "close_vs_ema24": 0.01169754191815775, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0023115689573232068, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0032274923058464022, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:03:49.593795Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 87176.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.3300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "138187.72", "open_time": "2026-09-23T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T05:00:01.0512Z", "volume_24h_fp": "156483.85", "volume_fp": "236680.47", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "11541.50", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $87,176.95" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:03:49.593795Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 87176.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.3400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "140671.75", "open_time": "2026-09-23T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T05:00:01.0512Z", "volume_24h_fp": "156483.85", "volume_fp": "242645.39", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "684.26", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9693.77", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $87,176.95" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.33, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.34, "yes_ask_size": 684.26, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.67, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 281, "entry_price": 0.34, "gross_cost": 95.54, "trading_fee": 4.42, "total_deployed": 99.96000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.54, "net_pnl": -99.96000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.34, "gross_cost": 34.0, "trading_fee": 1.58, "total_deployed": 35.58, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -34.0, "net_pnl": -35.58, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T04:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00017558946090301397, "return_30m": 0.0013277321827207533, "return_60m": 0.005521053004590604, "return_120m": 0.007397258069932633, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007900776547615784, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0022242159616614465, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004155819421229223, "ema3_slope": 0.0007907023710365113, "ema6_slope": 0.0008904786313785884, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004881754961557627, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008532937428330174, "return_acceleration": -0.0009763509923115254 } }, { "id": 92, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T0530Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:31:18.726973Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230145", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230145-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230145-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:30:00Z", "strike": 86766.64, "brti_reference_price": 86766.63516666666, "yes_ask": 0.54, "no_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 10725.98, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10725.98, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:31:18.888291Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.161318, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-23T05:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 187.91779166667038, "small_mean_absolute_error": 206.70491666666567 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 256.2103567708382, "small_mean_absolute_error": 250.68425000000389 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 262.7222395833378, "small_mean_absolute_error": 255.1768402777816 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 243.28679270833672, "small_mean_absolute_error": 222.8576125000036 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.006385226612111827, "return_12h": 0.0022392547341572033, "return_24h": 0.018567759383920857, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0030819176324949904, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00661088174481983, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0024790424048175552, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.003358059367559507, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T05:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:03:50.302155Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T05:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86766.64, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T05:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "124510.22", "open_time": "2026-09-23T05:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T05:30:01.022471Z", "volume_24h_fp": "127413.24", "volume_fp": "212149.45", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7625.22", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1043.25", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,766.64" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T05:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:03:50.302155Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T05:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86766.64, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T05:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "130035.09", "open_time": "2026-09-23T05:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T05:30:01.022471Z", "volume_24h_fp": "127413.24", "volume_fp": "224678.40", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10725.98", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6664.25", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,766.64" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.53, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 10725.98, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.47, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 179, "entry_price": 0.54, "gross_cost": 96.66000000000001, "trading_fee": 3.12, "total_deployed": 99.78000000000002, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.66000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.78000000000002, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.54, "gross_cost": 54.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 55.74, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -54.0, "net_pnl": -55.74, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T05:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0019479314819866866, "return_30m": -0.004706712312370631, "return_60m": -0.0033852293830619606, "return_120m": 0.0011866238949174157, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0014697158336461902, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0016706170378875118, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0006622969341852913, "ema3_slope": -0.0014675589390364951, "ema6_slope": -0.0006678005595578407, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00040811687643982353, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0015755175229227132, "return_acceleration": 0.0008162337528796471 } }, { "id": 93, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T1215Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:16:15.772503Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230830", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230830-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230830-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "strike": 85462.47, "brti_reference_price": 85462.46733333335, "yes_ask": 0.56, "no_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 9404.44, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.45, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 213, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:16:15.972870Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.200367, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 199.84264583333425, "small_mean_absolute_error": 210.45773958332575 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 163.92402604166637, "small_mean_absolute_error": 147.08704166666212 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 146.58192361111045, "small_mean_absolute_error": 116.21431597222302 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 124.93729166666671, "small_mean_absolute_error": 152.05589895833327 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.013119627616496543, "return_12h": -0.010271955617857875, "return_24h": -0.005685643976124033, "close_vs_ema12": -0.007632912552178572, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007491762015308212, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0030959258175766724, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.001319672199193711, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T12:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:01.304224Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T12:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85462.47, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T12:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T12:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "62214.75", "open_time": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T12:15:00.994515Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "114173.37", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3051.49", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4490.73", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,462.47" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T12:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:01.304224Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T12:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85462.47, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T12:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T12:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "73702.04", "open_time": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T12:15:00.994515Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "126674.18", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9404.44", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2479.48", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,462.47" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 9404.44, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.45, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.002092085963591117, "return_30m": -0.0002864569587528454, "return_60m": -0.0032322482248445805, "return_120m": -0.004324579565541109, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0008306932868087369, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0016337198550252507, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003088318930445033, "ema3_slope": -0.0008300038082171834, "ema6_slope": -0.0006530611744072212, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0019507502095069684, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0018282393520075502, "return_acceleration": -0.003901500419013937 } }, { "id": 94, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T1230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:31:17.335971Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230845", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230845-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230845-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:30:00Z", "strike": 85457.37, "brti_reference_price": 85457.36716666668, "yes_ask": 0.66, "no_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 6649.38, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.35, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 273, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:31:17.562535Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.226564, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 147.82303645833235, "small_mean_absolute_error": 183.10023958332386 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.2483489583301, "small_mean_absolute_error": 168.10667708332585 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 146.72417708333282, "small_mean_absolute_error": 126.0805295138877 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 125.1260541666663, "small_mean_absolute_error": 142.14270833333285 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.01132550763349871, "return_12h": -0.011374353899324285, "return_24h": -0.0069394653938439355, "close_vs_ema12": -0.007380486857150426, "close_vs_ema24": -0.00739648788970293, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003171492228079109, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0015265043375662923, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T12:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:01.631088Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T12:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85457.37, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T12:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T12:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "73134.99", "open_time": "2026-09-23T12:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T12:30:01.002756Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "91027.58", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6893.94", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1896.99", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,457.37" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T12:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:01.631088Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T12:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T12:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85457.37, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T12:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T12:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "75409.60", "open_time": "2026-09-23T12:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T12:30:01.002756Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "94901.66", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6649.38", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "11151.70", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,457.37" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.65, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 6649.38, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.35, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -5.967726916633609e-05, "return_30m": -0.0021516383827803187, "return_60m": -0.0004080194419494587, "return_120m": -0.0036761510949084863, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004453587473528531, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0012100851735440399, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0026648236612411003, "ema3_slope": -0.00044516049123410895, "ema6_slope": -0.0004837998937864407, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010162043472123905, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001379976558620161, "return_acceleration": 0.002032408694424781 } }, { "id": 95, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T1245Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:46:17.554780Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T13:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230900", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230900-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230900-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:45:00Z", "strike": 85451.95, "brti_reference_price": 85451.9465, "yes_ask": 0.6, "no_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 3947.95, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:46:17.763433Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.208653, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 110.9972031249963, "small_mean_absolute_error": 155.1298749999878 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 149.30136718749964, "small_mean_absolute_error": 172.3374296874954 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 133.23232812499796, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.0151128472195 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 122.21477499999892, "small_mean_absolute_error": 142.33824374999966 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.012722026046514956, "return_12h": -0.011394265142190996, "return_24h": -0.006199913311283112, "close_vs_ema12": -0.007141805442516969, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007306806229136931, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0032057288670040984, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0017582209901094714, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:01.973144Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T13:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T13:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85451.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T13:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T13:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "65731.51", "open_time": "2026-09-23T12:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T12:45:00.778197Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "104506.15", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4866.13", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5954.64", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,451.95" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:01.973144Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T13:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T13:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85451.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T13:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T13:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "70330.98", "open_time": "2026-09-23T12:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T12:45:00.778197Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "114632.85", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3947.95", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4083.10", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,451.95" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.59, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 3947.95, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.41, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T12:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -6.343123883167934e-05, "return_30m": -0.00012310472259491334, "return_60m": -0.0004095264171433133, "return_120m": -0.0047555837399382295, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0002544455943549462, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0009099308228367464, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0023093495957738908, "ema3_slope": -0.00025438086826368167, "ema6_slope": -0.00036383990147825784, "realized_volatility_30m": 1.8769848326716243e-06, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013799660225602406, "return_acceleration": -3.7539696653432486e-06 } }, { "id": 96, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T1315Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T13:16:17.265085Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T13:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230930", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230930-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230930-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T13:15:00Z", "strike": 85343.71, "brti_reference_price": 85343.71066666665, "yes_ask": 0.75, "no_ask": 0.26, "yes_ask_size": 4281.94, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.26, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 365, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T13:16:17.538322Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.273237, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 68.51830729166977, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.4539010416629 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.180476562502, "small_mean_absolute_error": 189.95582031249432 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 132.1221197916675, "small_mean_absolute_error": 154.54266145832904 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 125.21607395833344, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.6130791666663 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T13:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.011772261545011986, "return_12h": -0.01591185053712363, "return_24h": -0.008386559830083073, "close_vs_ema12": -0.007791301213087132, "close_vs_ema24": -0.008247634105254309, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00334756411057735, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0021646436745595965, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T13:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:02.682264Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T13:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T13:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85343.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.7000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T13:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T13:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "78946.60", "open_time": "2026-09-23T13:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T13:15:01.025351Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "110196.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5892.10", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6251.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,343.71" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T13:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:02.682264Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T13:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T13:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85343.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.7400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T13:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T13:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "88314.19", "open_time": "2026-09-23T13:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 AM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP230930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T13:15:01.025351Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "130115.74", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4281.94", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9224.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,343.71" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.74, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.75, "yes_ask_size": 4281.94, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.26, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T13:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0015125868915764062, "return_30m": -0.0012666280613438108, "return_60m": -0.0013895768560425736, "return_120m": -0.004617333623560982, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0007589100809337612, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0014194620394248902, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0027569756674112877, "ema3_slope": -0.0007583345731811963, "ema6_slope": -0.0005674626191113363, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008794591597488521, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006843975661180894, "return_acceleration": -0.0017589183194977043 } }, { "id": 97, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T2000Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:01:19.800158Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231615", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231615-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231615-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:00:00Z", "strike": 84476.4, "brti_reference_price": 84476.40033333334, "yes_ask": 0.56, "no_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 9110.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.56, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 9110.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 173, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:01:19.991440Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.191282, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-23T20:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 59.644374999999854, "small_mean_absolute_error": 184.10726562499985 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.193085937502474, "small_mean_absolute_error": 147.25302083333736 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 102.4621059027789, "small_mean_absolute_error": 175.14268750000215 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 138.13735625000191, "small_mean_absolute_error": 179.80078333333586 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T19:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.015118553034493054, "return_12h": -0.01923205395512384, "return_24h": -0.020256169934282697, "close_vs_ema12": -0.005048996549965046, "close_vs_ema24": -0.010158297883772094, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.004827662998643345, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.008014350860416686, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T20:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:15.726396Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T20:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T20:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84476.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T20:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T20:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "181832.99", "open_time": "2026-09-23T20:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T20:00:00.874021Z", "volume_24h_fp": "164270.54", "volume_fp": "282420.19", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10595.24", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4686.20", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,476.40" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T20:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:15.726396Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T20:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T20:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84476.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T20:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T20:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "186138.36", "open_time": "2026-09-23T20:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T20:00:00.874021Z", "volume_24h_fp": "164270.54", "volume_fp": "290702.09", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9110.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8726.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,476.40" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 9110.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.45, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 173, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 96.88000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.99, "total_deployed": 99.87, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.88000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.87, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 56.00000000000001, "trading_fee": 1.73, "total_deployed": 57.730000000000004, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -56.00000000000001, "net_pnl": -57.730000000000004, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T19:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0003293542383946413, "return_30m": 0.0008877076141355911, "return_60m": 0.001689997023695211, "return_120m": 0.001910417876456405, "consecutive_up_closes": 6, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0004342295991306422, "close_vs_ema6": 0.001104738774097891, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0015867523075976386, "ema3_slope": 0.0004344182363873461, "ema6_slope": 0.0004420908676083801, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00011440765092118887, "realized_volatility_60m": 9.901275570043884e-05, "return_acceleration": -0.00022881530184237775 } }, { "id": 98, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T2045Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:46:20.321855Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T21:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231700", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231700-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231700-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:45:00Z", "strike": 84393.67, "brti_reference_price": 84393.66950000002, "yes_ask": 0.49, "no_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 11843.71, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.49, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 11843.71, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 197, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:46:20.542913Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.221058, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-23T21:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 82.7657031250128, "small_mean_absolute_error": 112.63249479166552 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 85.63856250000572, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.78582552083208 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.33518229167264, "small_mean_absolute_error": 141.7363350694468 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 137.96743750000388, "small_mean_absolute_error": 162.01359791666837 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0007281910903860211, "return_12h": -0.01973911667347017, "return_24h": -0.02252721982332817, "close_vs_ema12": -0.005259615729981126, "close_vs_ema24": -0.010429946915408661, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0038178017963125255, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.007570000164694557, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:17.793623Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84393.67, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T21:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "90899.74", "open_time": "2026-09-23T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T20:45:00.802387Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "146796.45", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6318.81", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6218.07", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,393.67" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:17.793623Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84393.67, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T21:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "100271.76", "open_time": "2026-09-23T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T20:45:00.802387Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "199362.07", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "11843.71", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "100.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,393.67" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.48, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 11843.71, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.52, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 197, "entry_price": 0.49, "gross_cost": 96.53, "trading_fee": 3.45, "total_deployed": 99.98, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.53, "net_pnl": -99.98, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.49, "gross_cost": 49.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 50.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -49.0, "net_pnl": -50.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0012978695511067784, "return_30m": 0.00025478384572563684, "return_60m": -0.0006503049416528572, "return_120m": 0.0022001665700868145, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00028774069946457814, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00034708005383854434, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0005639342331573705, "ema3_slope": 0.00028782351800504813, "ema6_slope": 0.0001388512985418533, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0011698016110380238, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010362610393273295, "return_acceleration": 0.0023396032220760477 } }, { "id": 99, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260923T2100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-23T21:01:18.693421Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-23T21:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231715", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231715-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231715-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-23T21:00:00Z", "strike": 84224.07, "brti_reference_price": 84224.07300000002, "yes_ask": 0.6, "no_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 2622.96, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-23T21:01:18.881478Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.188057, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 112.74111979167355, "small_mean_absolute_error": 80.59814583332627 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 86.1927473958367, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.35270572916306 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 79.70909722222616, "small_mean_absolute_error": 125.03472916666699 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 125.89573020833559, "small_mean_absolute_error": 148.9602500000001 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.003348313191793628, "return_12h": -0.01939993104152682, "return_24h": -0.023307879962411238, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0069644265847585984, "close_vs_ema24": -0.012165633688472233, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003707215397149577, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.007484368808777453, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:18.073077Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84224.07, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T21:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "77284.81", "open_time": "2026-09-23T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T21:00:00.93135Z", "volume_24h_fp": "85945.79", "volume_fp": "119530.48", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4937.61", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5149.81", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,224.07" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-23T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-22T20:04:18.073077Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-23T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-09-30T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84224.07, "last_price_dollars": "0.5900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T21:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-23T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "83301.11", "open_time": "2026-09-23T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Sep 23, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP231715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-23T21:00:00.93135Z", "volume_24h_fp": "85945.79", "volume_fp": "142061.78", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2622.96", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6424.19", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,224.07" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.59, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 2622.96, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.41, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-23T20:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.002009587934791668, "return_30m": -0.0007143265666756937, "return_60m": -0.0029869565030904432, "return_120m": -0.0013020074269954884, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0008619550644635154, "close_vs_ema6": -0.001188568644529986, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0012244769124784005, "ema3_slope": -0.0008612127377825018, "ema6_slope": -0.000475201533954861, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0016537287429492231, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012348550294438542, "return_acceleration": -0.0033074574858984462 } }, { "id": 100, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260924T1145Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-24T11:46:20.472077Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-24T12:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240800", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240800-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240800-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-24T11:45:00Z", "strike": 83427.33, "brti_reference_price": 83427.3265, "yes_ask": 0.44, "no_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 4396.58, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-24T11:46:20.653596Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.181519, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.60511979166768, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.30629166666768 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 110.94506510416795, "small_mean_absolute_error": 113.45873697916795 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.80717013888716, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.07494618055716 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 112.82311979166407, "small_mean_absolute_error": 94.59706666666607 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T11:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00907693865404291, "return_12h": -0.012118305112580607, "return_24h": -0.024092905760940142, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00583352290684902, "close_vs_ema24": -0.010674149670516386, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.004090585367967581, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.004641820327818458, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:01:51.399014Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83427.33, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T12:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "37413.63", "open_time": "2026-09-24T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T11:45:00.5216Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "71014.56", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4040.42", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "931.91", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,427.33" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:01:51.399014Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83427.33, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T12:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "53903.71", "open_time": "2026-09-24T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T11:45:00.5216Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "95450.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4396.58", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2624.70", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,427.33" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 4396.58, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.57, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T11:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0010511211557869826, "return_30m": -0.0014326642820189361, "return_60m": 0.0005649661308460008, "return_120m": 0.003626790134401814, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00040045986491255015, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00024607116557806563, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0009141719466931875, "ema3_slope": -0.00040029956100451347, "ema6_slope": -9.841877902183604e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0003345882797547439, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009188867541543508, "return_acceleration": -0.0006691765595094878 } }, { "id": 101, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260924T1245Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-24T12:46:18.343863Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-24T13:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240900", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240900-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240900-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-24T12:45:00Z", "strike": 83456.74, "brti_reference_price": 83456.73950000001, "yes_ask": 0.37, "no_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 4036.93, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.64, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 152, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-24T12:46:18.578006Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.234143, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 70.0174270833304, "small_mean_absolute_error": 92.7710260416643 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 91.81127343749904, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.53865885416599 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 97.3025190972221, "small_mean_absolute_error": 106.5628333333334 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.006892708331, "small_mean_absolute_error": 100.54679374999978 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T12:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00858226583900279, "return_12h": -0.010499800473823706, "return_24h": -0.023348877137631896, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00471530181161306, "close_vs_ema24": -0.009544022190681511, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003246796660721585, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.004860443685439253, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:01:52.845777Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T13:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T13:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83456.74, "last_price_dollars": "0.3600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T13:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T13:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "36098.07", "open_time": "2026-09-24T12:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T12:45:00.54795Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "65109.97", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1422.18", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1207.74", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,456.74" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:01:52.845777Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T13:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T13:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83456.74, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T13:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T13:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "36711.27", "open_time": "2026-09-24T12:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP240900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T12:45:00.54795Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "70371.00", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4036.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "458.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,456.74" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.36, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 4036.93, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.64, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T12:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0008256321009503242, "return_30m": -0.0006214187834470142, "return_60m": 0.0003525583430989965, "return_120m": 0.0009177236574680059, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00031356104384594463, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0002754101966782052, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0005033270978906934, "ema3_slope": -0.0003134627541375723, "ema6_slope": -0.00011015194388375171, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005150070814223806, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005770397763924381, "return_acceleration": -0.0010300141628447612 } }, { "id": 102, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260924T2015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:16:15.786716Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241630", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241630-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241630-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:15:00Z", "strike": 84286.75, "brti_reference_price": 84286.74999999999, "yes_ask": 0.44, "no_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 4187.23, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:16:15.956052Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.169336, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 139.39802083333052, "small_mean_absolute_error": 125.30036458333052 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 144.9060130208345, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.6423411458345 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.25560416666607, "small_mean_absolute_error": 142.77122916666607 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 162.2507916666611, "small_mean_absolute_error": 159.41308333333 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0006667550048571336, "return_12h": -0.0013433825804262112, "return_24h": -0.0010124526898468433, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0012780445225135662, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00017110884844062646, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0014715340517772457, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0006074562525670846, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:02:02.970458Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84286.75, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T20:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "101777.71", "open_time": "2026-09-24T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T20:15:00.576203Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "134801.80", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3043.44", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7109.91", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,286.75" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:02:02.970458Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84286.75, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T20:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "112161.03", "open_time": "2026-09-24T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T20:15:00.576203Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "149358.16", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4187.23", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7228.28", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,286.75" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 4187.23, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.57, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0010164171842028669, "return_30m": -0.0018105498892384553, "return_60m": -0.003510566615958499, "return_120m": 0.0009785479971391453, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0008790259262443367, "close_vs_ema6": -0.001304190062601518, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0011307527245744131, "ema3_slope": -0.0008782539182802251, "ema6_slope": -0.0005214040210633764, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00011073824389151721, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008739544401280772, "return_acceleration": -0.00022147648778303441 } }, { "id": 103, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260924T2030Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:31:16.510045Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241645", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241645-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241645-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:30:00Z", "strike": 84251.87, "brti_reference_price": 84251.87049999999, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 8453.93, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:31:16.677228Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.167183, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.59702604166887, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.40952604166887 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 119.79484114583647, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.96085677083647 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 136.52158680555416, "small_mean_absolute_error": 146.32301909722082 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 154.27554166666232, "small_mean_absolute_error": 161.23002083333122 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.007112684504566258, "return_12h": 0.004804302993701937, "return_24h": -0.0003845201049621494, "close_vs_ema12": 0.000828414043201775, "close_vs_ema24": -0.00023778669924257034, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.001383780122232059, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0004470978469433007, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T20:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:02:03.282978Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T20:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T20:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84251.87, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T20:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T20:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "133870.51", "open_time": "2026-09-24T20:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T20:30:00.574415Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "205306.28", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3561.33", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8560.28", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,251.87" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T20:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:02:03.282978Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T20:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T20:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84251.87, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T20:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T20:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "135112.25", "open_time": "2026-09-24T20:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T20:30:00.574415Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "212232.66", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8453.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6485.57", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,251.87" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 8453.93, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0004138194912011173, "return_30m": -0.0014298160621619704, "return_60m": -0.0043005304573087155, "return_120m": -0.0019631748105789493, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 4, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0006466587269642332, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0012273664574935506, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0013068602329092682, "ema3_slope": -0.0006462408296920019, "ema6_slope": -0.0004907056727241343, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0003012988465008748, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006188970115844845, "return_acceleration": 0.0006025976930017496 } }, { "id": 104, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260924T2045Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:46:19.322722Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-24T21:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241700", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241700-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241700-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:45:00Z", "strike": 84386.84, "brti_reference_price": 84386.83616666666, "yes_ask": 0.53, "no_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 9852.48, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.53, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 9852.48, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 182, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:46:19.495183Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.172461, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-24T21:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 130.96801562500332, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.56762500000332 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.25761458333545, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.00663802083545 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 137.45981770833168, "small_mean_absolute_error": 133.51450520833168 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 142.44495312499566, "small_mean_absolute_error": 154.26388541666455 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00017385549969017866, "return_12h": 0.007836795148169706, "return_24h": -8.096973829718745e-05, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002332188520195455, "close_vs_ema24": 0.001335591749737297, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0014498467093686518, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00043426001979529616, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:02:03.600545Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84386.84, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T21:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "88631.45", "open_time": "2026-09-24T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T20:45:00.572077Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "153283.18", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8319.15", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4508.13", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,386.84" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-24T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-23T20:02:03.600545Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-24T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-01T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84386.84, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T21:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-24T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "95163.41", "open_time": "2026-09-24T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Sep 24, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on September 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP241700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-24T20:45:00.572077Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "163359.00", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9852.48", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3357.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,386.84" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.52, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 9852.48, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.48, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 182, "entry_price": 0.53, "gross_cost": 96.46000000000001, "trading_fee": 3.18, "total_deployed": 99.64000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.46000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.64000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.53, "gross_cost": 53.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 54.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -53.0, "net_pnl": -54.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-24T20:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0016019308042147795, "return_30m": 0.0011874484028233656, "return_60m": -0.0006252514209892368, "return_120m": -0.00010044989030422169, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0004768905542489321, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00026611323518643815, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00024789250264767304, "ema3_slope": 0.0004771180873579528, "ema6_slope": 0.00010645662588126825, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010078751477079484, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010374673976743056, "return_acceleration": 0.002015750295415897 } }, { "id": 105, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260926T0715Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-26T07:16:15.285613Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-26T07:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP260330", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP260330-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP260330-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-26T07:15:00Z", "strike": 83994.3, "brti_reference_price": 83994.30483333334, "yes_ask": 0.41, "no_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 1771.05, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.6, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 162, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-26T07:16:15.457715Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.172102, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 48.990515625002445, "small_mean_absolute_error": 103.43387500000244 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 48.09487499999523, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.03725781249523 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 53.19565104166395, "small_mean_absolute_error": 113.25320833332808 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 57.42774270832888, "small_mean_absolute_error": 94.03345312499587 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-26T07:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0008144838938977106, "return_12h": -0.0004372788400581751, "return_24h": 0.0021384898053027346, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0002563089678628838, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0005183857820307836, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0003198560214231483, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0005950267944032639, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-26T07:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-25T20:04:03.416467Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP260330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-26T07:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-03T07:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83994.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T07:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-26T07:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "80206.83", "open_time": "2026-09-26T07:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on Sep 26, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 AM EDT on September 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP260330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-26T07:15:01.010297Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "136618.24", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3497.89", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3055.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,994.30" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-26T07:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-25T20:04:03.416467Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP260330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-26T07:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-03T07:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83994.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T07:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-26T07:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "93437.43", "open_time": "2026-09-26T07:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on Sep 26, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 AM EDT on September 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP260330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-26T07:15:01.010297Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "170740.99", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1771.05", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3759.31", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,994.30" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.4, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 1771.05, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.6, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-26T07:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0012654648287582226, "return_30m": 0.0010414715326938495, "return_60m": 0.001180179436367279, "return_120m": 0.00041696990719186644, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0005569610176716644, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0007042753300186, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0006689032338500489, "ema3_slope": 0.0005572713961154996, "ema6_slope": 0.0002817895149689331, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007445875137171432, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006155051257664229, "return_acceleration": 0.0014891750274342863 } }, { "id": 106, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260926T1645Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-26T16:46:20.572424Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-26T17:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261300-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-26T16:45:00Z", "strike": 84140.86, "brti_reference_price": 84140.862, "yes_ask": 0.42, "no_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 1697.46, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.42, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1697.46, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 228, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-26T16:46:20.749219Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.176795, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-26T17:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 37.90984895833026, "small_mean_absolute_error": 41.63750000000073 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.875, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 51.365395833332514, "small_mean_absolute_error": 56.34836197916775 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 45.24550347222006, "small_mean_absolute_error": 45.20810590277688 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.6, "agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "both_up_accuracy": 0.7, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 42.27900312499914, "small_mean_absolute_error": 45.65751458333034 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-26T16:30:00Z", "return_6h": 1.974901900747561e-05, "return_12h": 0.002098273117760341, "return_24h": 0.002534457558972969, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0011463802457312156, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0010480689363376872, "ema12_slope_3h": 7.700187873060926e-05, "ema24_slope_6h": 4.851613564427204e-05, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-26T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-25T20:04:29.199504Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-26T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84140.86, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-26T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "123704.41", "open_time": "2026-09-26T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Sep 26, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on September 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-26T16:45:00.623474Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "197598.62", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "627.80", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4504.29", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,140.86" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-26T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-25T20:04:29.199504Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-26T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84140.86, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T17:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-26T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "133859.88", "open_time": "2026-09-26T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Sep 26, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on September 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-26T16:45:00.623474Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "216608.46", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1697.46", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2487.99", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,140.86" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.41, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 1697.46, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.59, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 228, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 95.75999999999999, "trading_fee": 3.89, "total_deployed": 99.64999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.75999999999999, "net_pnl": -99.64999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 42.0, "trading_fee": 1.71, "total_deployed": 43.71, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -42.0, "net_pnl": -43.71, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-26T16:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0004378465985015456, "return_30m": 0.0002661226683298157, "return_60m": 0.0003999716005360643, "return_120m": 0.0015856849104423087, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00019563307311365463, "close_vs_ema6": 0.000445185685486571, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0007866605513087155, "ema3_slope": 0.00019567135290143867, "ema6_slope": 0.00017810599028944551, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00030474768642063665, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003395262913284228, "return_acceleration": 0.0006094953728412733 } }, { "id": 107, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260926T1700Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-26T17:01:18.937312Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-26T17:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261315", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261315-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261315-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-26T17:00:00Z", "strike": 84103.03, "brti_reference_price": 84103.03116666667, "yes_ask": 0.53, "no_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 941.69, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.53, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 941.69, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 182, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-26T17:01:19.113078Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.175766, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-26T17:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 39.83124479166145, "small_mean_absolute_error": 51.05303645833192 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.875, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 52.253687499998705, "small_mean_absolute_error": 55.27571614583394 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 48.224536458332295, "small_mean_absolute_error": 48.618779513889116 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.55, "small_accuracy": 0.6, "agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "both_up_accuracy": 0.7, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 42.13336145833237, "small_mean_absolute_error": 46.00588229166387 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-26T16:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0007573950317437683, "return_12h": 0.0015597351231571022, "return_24h": 0.004447419814181064, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0006678143068488129, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0005856081071657915, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00015627150184660543, "ema24_slope_6h": 3.1850797370669426e-05, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-26T17:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-25T20:04:29.742993Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-26T17:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-03T17:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84103.03, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T17:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-26T17:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "74507.13", "open_time": "2026-09-26T17:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on Sep 26, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on September 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-26T17:00:00.522037Z", "volume_24h_fp": "61896.32", "volume_fp": "113972.55", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3164.53", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1559.21", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,103.03" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-26T17:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-25T20:04:29.742993Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-26T17:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-03T17:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84103.03, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T17:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-26T17:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "78188.35", "open_time": "2026-09-26T17:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on Sep 26, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on September 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP261315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-26T17:00:00.522037Z", "volume_24h_fp": "61896.32", "volume_fp": "119750.16", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "941.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4210.16", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,103.03" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.52, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 941.69, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.48, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 182, "entry_price": 0.53, "gross_cost": 96.46000000000001, "trading_fee": 3.18, "total_deployed": 99.64000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.46000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.64000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.53, "gross_cost": 53.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 54.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -53.0, "net_pnl": -54.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-26T16:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0004496130944477983, "return_30m": -1.1963357510191841e-05, "return_60m": -0.000484684073212005, "return_120m": 0.0010568903099248406, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00012705012994762566, "close_vs_ema6": -3.3054117094533098e-06, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0002848799668553337, "ema3_slope": -0.00012703399026292583, "ema6_slope": -1.3221629356907627e-06, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00044372984647467195, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003373825240374424, "return_acceleration": -0.0008874596929493439 } }, { "id": 108, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260927T0100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-27T01:01:25.180099Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-27T01:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP262115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP262115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP262115-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-27T01:00:00Z", "strike": 84294.42, "brti_reference_price": 84294.42283333332, "yes_ask": 0.45, "no_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 13249.86, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.56, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 173, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-27T01:01:25.390136Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.210037, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.74284895833989, "small_mean_absolute_error": 125.86003645833989 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 56.06690625000374, "small_mean_absolute_error": 93.97704687500845 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 62.56674826389159, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.33415972222672 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 67.37471979167022, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.58985416667129 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-27T00:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0035596082574265164, "return_12h": 0.0028533978982585584, "return_24h": 0.004879507521784898, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0016201420536956501, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002153641791872385, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0012561727733824135, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0006917134002299985, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-27T01:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-25T20:04:42.763012Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP262115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T01:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-04T01:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84294.42, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T01:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-27T01:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "90145.58", "open_time": "2026-09-27T01:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on Sep 26, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on September 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP262115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-27T01:00:01.303061Z", "volume_24h_fp": "112491.34", "volume_fp": "167019.36", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2593.07", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5316.85", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,294.42" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-27T01:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-25T20:04:42.763012Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP262115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-27T01:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-04T01:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84294.42, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T01:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-27T01:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "106063.68", "open_time": "2026-09-27T01:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on Sep 26, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on September 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP262115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-27T01:00:01.303061Z", "volume_24h_fp": "112491.34", "volume_fp": "200776.87", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "13249.86", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "779.43", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,294.42" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.44, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 13249.86, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.56, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-27T00:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0004125083144386199, "return_30m": 0.0004974391723080451, "return_60m": -0.0015696667298180644, "return_120m": 0.00035206494406714306, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00012146340029217662, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00018463142536817578, "close_vs_ema12": 9.915005499805396e-05, "ema3_slope": -0.00012144864872620786, "ema6_slope": -7.384711634783603e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0006614156584963116, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008193045966039657, "return_acceleration": -0.0013228313169926231 } }, { "id": 109, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T0730Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:31:18.843149Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280345", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280345-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280345-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:30:00Z", "strike": 82925.22, "brti_reference_price": 82925.22216666667, "yes_ask": 0.67, "no_ask": 0.34, "yes_ask_size": 234.91, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.34, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 281, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:31:19.045089Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.20194, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.04468229166014, "small_mean_absolute_error": 153.43921354166014 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.6894453124969, "small_mean_absolute_error": 159.8163984374969 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 132.14281423610979, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.25492534722312 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 124.35267083333311, "small_mean_absolute_error": 138.47544583333655 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.013703228289060232, "return_12h": -0.02072579732112867, "return_24h": -0.01880799912826292, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00960469808255926, "close_vs_ema24": -0.01314687817418192, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.004380466806610417, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005461203927299985, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T07:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:14.880099Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T07:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T07:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82925.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.6700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T07:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T07:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "82149.97", "open_time": "2026-09-28T07:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T07:30:00.848931Z", "volume_24h_fp": "101112.06", "volume_fp": "131544.28", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "748.64", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4477.46", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,925.22" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T07:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:14.880099Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T07:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T07:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82925.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T07:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T07:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "82648.95", "open_time": "2026-09-28T07:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T07:30:00.848931Z", "volume_24h_fp": "101112.06", "volume_fp": "132312.55", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "234.91", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3980.92", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,925.22" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.66, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.67, "yes_ask_size": 234.91, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.34, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.001499646983759817, "return_30m": -0.0024839776510735545, "return_60m": -0.001459879606347303, "return_120m": -0.0017620823234925087, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0010285389135809009, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0017821847699968085, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0030047214058329663, "ema3_slope": -0.0010274821082495444, "ema6_slope": -0.0007123660808067145, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00025691897545165876, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001193772127881359, "return_acceleration": -0.0005138379509033175 } }, { "id": 110, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T0745Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:46:24.308400Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T08:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280400", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280400-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280400-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:45:00Z", "strike": 82894.82, "brti_reference_price": 82894.82166666667, "yes_ask": 0.58, "no_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 15.0, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.43, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 223, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:46:24.516288Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.207888, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 98.18369791666555, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.57627604166555 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 118.06252604166366, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.05471354166366 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 132.81397569444502, "small_mean_absolute_error": 160.44486631944287 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 114.87724583333329, "small_mean_absolute_error": 133.70197395833674 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.011236810784259421, "return_12h": -0.021980295380480297, "return_24h": -0.02024385573609855, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00956482169009143, "close_vs_ema24": -0.013233831200143764, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.004487562881616891, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005579394284693895, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T08:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:15.278876Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T08:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82894.82, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T08:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "68405.87", "open_time": "2026-09-28T07:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T07:45:00.849752Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "100968.36", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1729.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4456.88", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,894.82" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T08:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:15.278876Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T08:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82894.82, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T08:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "83168.95", "open_time": "2026-09-28T07:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T07:45:00.849752Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "124620.82", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "15.00", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4410.66", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,894.82" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.57, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 15.0, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.43, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T07:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0003666013693506276, "return_30m": -0.0018656985804725856, "return_60m": -0.0034483522217377827, "return_120m": -0.0024572172821849536, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 4, "close_vs_ema3": -0.000697868290089998, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0015353228706641575, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002853205038974571, "ema3_slope": -0.0006973816095787733, "ema6_slope": -0.0006137522251343785, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005665228072045947, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00042888649535648523, "return_acceleration": 0.0011330456144091894 } }, { "id": 111, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T0830Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T08:31:20.008209Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T08:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280445", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280445-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280445-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T08:30:00Z", "strike": 82795.57, "brti_reference_price": 82795.56533333332, "yes_ask": 0.6, "no_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 1637.32, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T08:31:20.220035Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.211826, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 108.52737499999785, "small_mean_absolute_error": 66.64563541667303 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.28602864582899, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.04242447916658 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 116.63542187499722, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.75947743055562 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.70860833333208, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.27691041667057 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T08:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.01024027819699036, "return_12h": -0.021397700283948273, "return_24h": -0.02359262004747753, "close_vs_ema12": -0.009653008105387051, "close_vs_ema24": -0.013633222782340249, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00447945910115255, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005809602667871561, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T08:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:17.238717Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T08:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82795.57, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T08:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "83142.58", "open_time": "2026-09-28T08:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T08:30:00.852251Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "128657.86", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4795.81", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "515.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,795.57" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T08:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:17.238717Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T08:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82795.57, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T08:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "88913.44", "open_time": "2026-09-28T08:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T08:30:00.852251Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "142871.25", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1637.32", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4399.82", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,795.57" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.59, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 1637.32, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.41, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T08:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0021940132949427316, "return_30m": -0.0018759588848116238, "return_60m": -0.0015635391735552284, "return_120m": -0.003021136200949348, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0010208524091698257, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0017177012148591464, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002946399956030077, "ema3_slope": -0.0010198113323145463, "ema6_slope": -0.0006866087304833179, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0012563835275306579, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011070159704279802, "return_acceleration": -0.0025127670550613157 } }, { "id": 112, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T0915Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T09:16:16.781099Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T09:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280530", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280530-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280530-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T09:15:00Z", "strike": 82826.8, "brti_reference_price": 82826.7965, "yes_ask": 0.78, "no_ask": 0.23, "yes_ask_size": 5815.3, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.78, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5815.3, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 126, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T09:16:16.980943Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.199844, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-28T09:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 1.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.54328645833448, "small_mean_absolute_error": 75.50241666667716 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 108.56064843749664, "small_mean_absolute_error": 60.46164843750557 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 109.68199131944009, "small_mean_absolute_error": 109.16286631944604 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.44826354166507, "small_mean_absolute_error": 115.48374270833665 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T09:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.007218508582358507, "return_12h": -0.02173515604323417, "return_24h": -0.02165047526596453, "close_vs_ema12": -0.008259461403407165, "close_vs_ema24": -0.01249940397998961, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.004375440115064078, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005869104175320494, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T09:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:18.445544Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T09:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T09:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82826.8, "last_price_dollars": "0.7500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T09:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T09:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "43692.72", "open_time": "2026-09-28T09:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T09:15:00.847326Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "67412.31", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4104.45", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4916.74", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,826.80" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T09:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:18.445544Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T09:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T09:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82826.8, "last_price_dollars": "0.7700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T09:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T09:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "50819.51", "open_time": "2026-09-28T09:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T09:15:00.847326Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "76027.38", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5815.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2229.31", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,826.80" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.77, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.78, "yes_ask_size": 5815.3, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.23, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 126, "entry_price": 0.78, "gross_cost": 98.28, "trading_fee": 1.52, "total_deployed": 99.8, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -98.28, "net_pnl": -99.8, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.78, "gross_cost": 78.0, "trading_fee": 1.21, "total_deployed": 79.21, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -78.0, "net_pnl": -79.21, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T09:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0012017014370502288, "return_30m": -0.0004129666188094072, "return_60m": -0.0018176326887311411, "return_120m": -0.0026847877689724076, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00043279711435817436, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0007945428980916658, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001760195603177861, "ema3_slope": -0.00043260988204962825, "ema6_slope": -0.00031771618358178433, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00099569260971355, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012925011049762067, "return_acceleration": -0.0019913852194271 } }, { "id": 113, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T1130Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T11:31:20.564497Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T11:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280745", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280745-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280745-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T11:30:00Z", "strike": 82989.69, "brti_reference_price": 82989.68916666666, "yes_ask": 0.45, "no_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 3549.67, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.45, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3549.67, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 213, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T11:31:20.741076Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.176579, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-28T11:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 96.31344791666561, "small_mean_absolute_error": 147.8036822916656 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 97.77406510416586, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.42836197916586 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 85.68781944444345, "small_mean_absolute_error": 93.50776041666784 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 98.32710312499766, "small_mean_absolute_error": 100.12162604166733 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T11:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0009860409435912265, "return_12h": -0.016603354024732897, "return_24h": -0.022513216232645572, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0036934666759519397, "close_vs_ema24": -0.008402256482490711, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003651042722763842, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.006002322822436068, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T11:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:22.077606Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280745", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T11:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T11:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82989.69, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T11:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T11:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "53181.54", "open_time": "2026-09-28T11:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280745-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T11:30:00.873088Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "89237.93", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3671.29", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4205.10", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,989.69" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T11:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:22.077606Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280745", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T11:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T11:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82989.69, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T11:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T11:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "53979.10", "open_time": "2026-09-28T11:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280745-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T11:30:00.873088Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "90832.15", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3549.67", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1508.78", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,989.69" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.44, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 3549.67, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.56, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 213, "entry_price": 0.45, "gross_cost": 95.85000000000001, "trading_fee": 3.7, "total_deployed": 99.55000000000001, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 213.0, "gross_pnl": 117.14999999999999, "net_pnl": 113.44999999999999, "roi": 1.1396283274736312, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.45, "gross_cost": 45.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 46.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 55.0, "net_pnl": 53.26, "roi": 1.1394950791613179, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T11:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0003986802772508735, "return_30m": 0.0007834575635103924, "return_60m": 0.0026272964699034507, "return_120m": 0.0026550947611381215, "consecutive_up_closes": 7, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00045976598304253713, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0010948061759983307, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0013138507239285335, "ema3_slope": 0.00045997746503423365, "ema6_slope": 0.0004381143305094426, "realized_volatility_30m": 7.028166486011678e-06, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005816735202166986, "return_acceleration": 1.4056332972023355e-05 } }, { "id": 114, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T1200Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:01:19.207800Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280815", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280815-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280815-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:00:00Z", "strike": 83058.66, "brti_reference_price": 83058.65633333335, "yes_ask": 0.37, "no_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 4245.93, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.37, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4245.93, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 258, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:01:19.376928Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.169128, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-28T12:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.91744270833442, "small_mean_absolute_error": 145.35294791666092 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 81.05285416666993, "small_mean_absolute_error": 118.59873177083318 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.77062673611242, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.82488020833141 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 95.70331979166585, "small_mean_absolute_error": 98.39705312500082 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T11:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0012617821391803785, "return_12h": -0.01642968918183918, "return_24h": -0.02147747373228981, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0026335765928984234, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007269446034044558, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003207535962186925, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005797462846917956, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:22.758838Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83058.66, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T12:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "87067.12", "open_time": "2026-09-28T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T12:00:01.329243Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "140633.62", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3204.61", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3992.29", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,058.66" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:22.758838Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83058.66, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T12:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "89781.47", "open_time": "2026-09-28T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T12:00:01.329243Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "148288.36", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4245.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1599.19", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,058.66" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.36, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 4245.93, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.64, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 258, "entry_price": 0.37, "gross_cost": 95.46, "trading_fee": 4.21, "total_deployed": 99.66999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 258.0, "gross_pnl": 162.54000000000002, "net_pnl": 158.33, "roi": 1.588542189224441, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.37, "gross_cost": 37.0, "trading_fee": 1.64, "total_deployed": 38.64, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 63.0, "net_pnl": 61.36, "roi": 1.5879917184265009, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T11:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 8.695214013476615e-05, "return_30m": 0.0008310329555298868, "return_60m": 0.001615141598094727, "return_120m": 0.005358074714355121, "consecutive_up_closes": 9, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0003442336061900697, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0009998873275853803, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0015468849141884178, "ema3_slope": 0.0003443521437702657, "ema6_slope": 0.00040011495898495397, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00032853199073323847, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00023266569004732742, "return_acceleration": -0.0006570639814664769 } }, { "id": 115, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T1230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:31:17.607349Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280845", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280845-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280845-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:30:00Z", "strike": 83355.1, "brti_reference_price": 83355.1005, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 616.81, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.63, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 154, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:31:17.779345Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.171996, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.0136093750043, "small_mean_absolute_error": 181.1717708333308 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 115.16352864583496, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.4877265624982 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 109.85391319444534, "small_mean_absolute_error": 141.34283159722085 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.9208885416665, "small_mean_absolute_error": 105.66813750000146 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.003716479907752701, "return_12h": -0.016815951732167655, "return_24h": -0.01868306637514716, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0008649989056674912, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0035682036154277563, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.002432278423556977, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0054668125351181596, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T12:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:24.706804Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T12:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T12:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83355.1, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T12:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T12:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "92473.96", "open_time": "2026-09-28T12:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T12:30:00.855741Z", "volume_24h_fp": "119600.63", "volume_fp": "143192.56", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1416.73", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7852.98", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,355.10" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T12:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:24.706804Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T12:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T12:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83355.1, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T12:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T12:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "101906.23", "open_time": "2026-09-28T12:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T12:30:00.855741Z", "volume_24h_fp": "119600.63", "volume_fp": "165393.07", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "616.81", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4529.27", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,355.10" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 616.81, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0003316573579643656, "return_30m": 0.0035690941769748186, "return_60m": 0.004403093167387295, "return_120m": 0.007041957868425985, "consecutive_up_closes": 11, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0010588298807079344, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0023957032839003745, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003705025188216249, "ema3_slope": 0.0010599521897587394, "ema6_slope": 0.0009592004974727786, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0014523530486465486, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012557258320484309, "return_acceleration": -0.002904706097293097 } }, { "id": 116, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T1245Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:46:25.225342Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280900", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280900-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280900-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:45:00Z", "strike": 83290.13, "brti_reference_price": 83290.12616666668, "yes_ask": 0.82, "no_ask": 0.19, "yes_ask_size": 2677.44, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.19, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 498, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:46:25.425659Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.200317, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 128.1038281250003, "small_mean_absolute_error": 163.6545677083268 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 103.0392473958309, "small_mean_absolute_error": 159.33805468749415 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.16110763888962, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.56148437499846 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 102.47792916666586, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.72791250000083 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0013039512747734516, "return_12h": -0.011657382063393174, "return_24h": -0.01982661183860035, "close_vs_ema12": 8.137326990409477e-05, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0042557103446281275, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0019975015931491535, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005328726784958215, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:25.062598Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T13:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83290.13, "last_price_dollars": "0.8100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.1900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T13:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "107552.01", "open_time": "2026-09-28T12:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T12:45:00.849554Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "129402.64", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.8100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4733.87", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.8000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5985.53", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,290.13" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:25.062598Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T13:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83290.13, "last_price_dollars": "0.8200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.1900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.1800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T13:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "113053.83", "open_time": "2026-09-28T12:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T12:45:00.849554Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "135154.37", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.8200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2677.44", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.8100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3526.22", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,290.13" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.81, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.82, "yes_ask_size": 2677.44, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.19, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0007794883929546081, "return_30m": -0.0004480895580512012, "return_60m": 0.002874018176956872, "return_120m": 0.004595869377976847, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0001392386809655477, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00115257371875499, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0024718990382364137, "ema3_slope": 0.00013925807107573185, "ema6_slope": 0.0004612421337264472, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005555728754594869, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0015109686448405663, "return_acceleration": -0.0011111457509189737 } }, { "id": 117, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T1300Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:01:18.684380Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280915", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280915-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280915-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:00:00Z", "strike": 83547.31, "brti_reference_price": 83547.30766666666, "yes_ask": 0.28, "no_ask": 0.73, "yes_ask_size": 6200.95, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.73, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 134, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:01:18.867935Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183555, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 176.3272083333286, "small_mean_absolute_error": 195.9131458333286 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.62232552083151, "small_mean_absolute_error": 170.63304687499476 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 112.81097222222282, "small_mean_absolute_error": 144.3702031249983 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 110.83634895833238, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.05742604166736 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0049991527802653035, "return_12h": -0.007072342759990691, "return_24h": -0.014673612194705976, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0030396468769591234, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0011566811871017713, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0014610510871163607, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005118125624211989, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T13:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:25.415015Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T13:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83547.31, "last_price_dollars": "0.2900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T13:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "80430.37", "open_time": "2026-09-28T13:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T13:00:00.966238Z", "volume_24h_fp": "81515.22", "volume_fp": "107769.56", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "977.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6006.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,547.31" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T13:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:25.415015Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T13:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83547.31, "last_price_dollars": "0.2700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T13:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "95863.20", "open_time": "2026-09-28T13:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T13:00:00.966238Z", "volume_24h_fp": "81515.22", "volume_fp": "126396.42", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6200.95", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "169.94", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,547.31" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.27, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.28, "yes_ask_size": 6200.95, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.73, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T12:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0030877789701668767, "return_30m": 0.002305883689345034, "return_60m": 0.005883207782368283, "return_120m": 0.007507851594082515, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0016111238857510202, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0030276941965894366, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004706769957508072, "ema3_slope": 0.0016137237947015937, "ema6_slope": 0.0012125461662320092, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0019336336815607424, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0017387687634959775, "return_acceleration": 0.003867267363121485 } }, { "id": 118, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T1315Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:16:20.289725Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280930", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280930-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280930-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:15:00Z", "strike": 83383.49, "brti_reference_price": 83383.48500000003, "yes_ask": 0.63, "no_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 2426.3, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:16:20.527247Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.237522, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 129.02346874998693, "small_mean_absolute_error": 141.85354687498693 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 135.29524739582848, "small_mean_absolute_error": 180.13409374999173 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.40496180555176, "small_mean_absolute_error": 159.77929687499395 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.2, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.38681562499842, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.30220937499834 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.004018283374484177, "return_12h": -0.007086184579829791, "return_24h": -0.015054288039783259, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0010290146175968573, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0030511672859253602, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.001058642500485374, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00493196494839776, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T13:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:25.906873Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T13:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83383.49, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T13:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "72656.80", "open_time": "2026-09-28T13:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T13:15:00.862684Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "96456.57", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "575.32", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4961.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,383.49" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T13:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:25.906873Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T13:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83383.49, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T13:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "85278.80", "open_time": "2026-09-28T13:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T13:15:00.862684Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "115233.54", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2426.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4460.61", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,383.49" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.62, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 2426.3, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.38, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.001960837174074359, "return_30m": 0.0011208871643024754, "return_60m": 0.0006722953484170624, "return_120m": 0.005145689645778662, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00017646735519827317, "close_vs_ema6": 0.000757570513168826, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002314697694641099, "ema3_slope": -0.0001764362199654368, "ema6_slope": 0.00030312005919519436, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.002524308072120618, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0018695963664129732, "return_acceleration": -0.005048616144241236 } }, { "id": 119, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T1330Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:31:16.894426Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280945", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280945-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280945-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:30:00Z", "strike": 83528.72, "brti_reference_price": 83528.72233333335, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 210.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.47, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 210.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 205, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:31:17.064656Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.17023, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-28T13:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 129.9133020833251, "small_mean_absolute_error": 173.5695520833251 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 131.9634557291647, "small_mean_absolute_error": 177.37066145832796 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.08011979166501, "small_mean_absolute_error": 167.51500173610717 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 104.19807395833195, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.05292083333188 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.007277643048742677, "return_12h": -0.006525312444420783, "return_24h": -0.01637743665487501, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002659138156356544, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0012876000656653064, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0006453299553422776, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.004683523737020523, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T13:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:26.294347Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280945", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T13:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83528.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T13:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "91535.24", "open_time": "2026-09-28T13:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280945-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T13:30:00.857782Z", "volume_24h_fp": "127853.35", "volume_fp": "197335.79", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "249.80", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5557.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,528.72" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T13:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:26.294347Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280945", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T13:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83528.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T13:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T13:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "90493.84", "open_time": "2026-09-28T13:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:45 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP280945-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T13:30:00.857782Z", "volume_24h_fp": "127853.35", "volume_fp": "223584.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "210.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4586.63", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,528.72" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 210.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 205, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 96.35, "trading_fee": 3.58, "total_deployed": 99.92999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 205.0, "gross_pnl": 108.65, "net_pnl": 105.07000000000001, "roi": 1.0514360052036427, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 47.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 48.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 53.0, "net_pnl": 51.25, "roi": 1.0512820512820513, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0017417997500743798, "return_30m": -0.0002224528096997913, "return_60m": 0.002082917929339567, "return_120m": 0.006495182378429609, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007819006649867344, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0017849316965565798, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0034336873734472917, "ema3_slope": 0.000782512512040423, "ema6_slope": 0.0007144827998208925, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0018513184620743695, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0019955879604389147, "return_acceleration": 0.003702636924148739 } }, { "id": 120, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260928T1400Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-28T14:01:18.069122Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-28T14:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP281015", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP281015-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP281015-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-28T14:00:00Z", "strike": 83635.43, "brti_reference_price": 83635.42916666667, "yes_ask": 0.29, "no_ask": 0.72, "yes_ask_size": 925.78, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.29, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 925.78, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 328, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-28T14:01:18.256656Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.187534, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-28T14:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 108.65533333333588, "small_mean_absolute_error": 178.52864062500157 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 142.49127083333224, "small_mean_absolute_error": 187.22089322916509 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.2999947916663, "small_mean_absolute_error": 173.26491145833037 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.45888437500034, "small_mean_absolute_error": 141.38328541666488 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.008248838016305493, "return_12h": -0.000782000906800473, "return_24h": -0.01624476190908608, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0035881117113933936, "close_vs_ema24": -2.9522957561090024e-05, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00013100116121189664, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.004130509895682644, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T14:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:27.399706Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP281015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T14:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T14:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83635.43, "last_price_dollars": "0.3100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T14:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T14:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "92969.67", "open_time": "2026-09-28T14:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:00 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP281015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T14:00:00.917217Z", "volume_24h_fp": "75688.81", "volume_fp": "111133.90", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1660.25", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5907.59", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,635.43" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-28T14:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-27T20:01:27.399706Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP281015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-28T14:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-05T14:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83635.43, "last_price_dollars": "0.2900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T14:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-28T14:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "105230.26", "open_time": "2026-09-28T14:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 AM EDT on Sep 28, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:00 AM EDT on September 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP281015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-28T14:00:00.917217Z", "volume_24h_fp": "75688.81", "volume_fp": "126933.65", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "925.78", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5726.80", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,635.43" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.28, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.29, "yes_ask_size": 925.78, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.72, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 328, "entry_price": 0.29, "gross_cost": 95.11999999999999, "trading_fee": 4.73, "total_deployed": 99.85, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.11999999999999, "net_pnl": -99.85, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.29, "gross_cost": 28.999999999999996, "trading_fee": 1.45, "total_deployed": 30.449999999999996, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -28.999999999999996, "net_pnl": -30.449999999999996, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-28T13:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0009044574540053585, "return_30m": 0.0012774867177722804, "return_60m": 0.0010547497275625872, "return_120m": 0.006944162821736599, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00028780119316396124, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0013759848473875458, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0032530853113197367, "ema3_slope": 0.00028788404653590227, "ema6_slope": 0.0005506970392676891, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0015441884439969522, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0017453632224494668, "return_acceleration": -0.0030883768879939044 } }, { "id": 121, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T0615Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T06:16:19.803570Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T06:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290230", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290230-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290230-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T06:15:00Z", "strike": 83822.95, "brti_reference_price": 83822.94833333333, "yes_ask": 0.32, "no_ask": 0.69, "yes_ask_size": 10952.38, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.32, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10952.38, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 298, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T06:16:20.000664Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.197094, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T06:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 205.37798437499805, "small_mean_absolute_error": 225.52056249999805 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 149.74375000000146, "small_mean_absolute_error": 189.28671875000146 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 133.89493576388728, "small_mean_absolute_error": 166.1706944444401 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.55, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 106.20200520833096, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.8801906249959 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T06:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0039208184487788955, "return_12h": -0.0014559107325199383, "return_24h": 0.007012240426756078, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006459109912964944, "close_vs_ema24": 0.005015684250117891, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00017276451034964335, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.001894092807864789, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T06:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:52.910453Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T06:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T06:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83822.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.3500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T06:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T06:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "143576.23", "open_time": "2026-09-29T06:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T06:15:00.853343Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "248731.92", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8515.06", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5277.54", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,822.95" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T06:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:52.910453Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T06:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T06:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83822.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.3100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T06:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T06:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "146731.49", "open_time": "2026-09-29T06:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T06:15:00.853343Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "264176.43", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10952.38", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "300.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,822.95" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.31, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.32, "yes_ask_size": 10952.38, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.69, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 298, "entry_price": 0.32, "gross_cost": 95.36, "trading_fee": 4.54, "total_deployed": 99.9, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 298.0, "gross_pnl": 202.64, "net_pnl": 198.1, "roi": 1.9829829829829828, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.32, "gross_cost": 32.0, "trading_fee": 1.53, "total_deployed": 33.53, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 68.0, "net_pnl": 66.47, "roi": 1.9824038174768863, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T06:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.005363746368018285, "return_30m": 0.006589738618882457, "return_60m": 0.0071992225140879995, "return_120m": 0.008653817806530295, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00303600350877109, "close_vs_ema6": 0.004814091381599939, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006314752047361871, "ema3_slope": 0.0030452488951018264, "ema6_slope": 0.001929351782956168, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0020721474726468347, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0021140996233274954, "return_acceleration": 0.0041442949452936695 } }, { "id": 122, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T0700Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:01:18.484932Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290315", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290315-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290315-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:00:00Z", "strike": 83969.94, "brti_reference_price": 83969.94266666664, "yes_ask": 0.18, "no_ask": 0.83, "yes_ask_size": 10603.28, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.18, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10603.28, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 525, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:01:18.668101Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183169, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T07:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 170.63647395831867, "small_mean_absolute_error": 170.59350520831867 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 148.62073177082493, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.31018489582493 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 128.30882465277077, "small_mean_absolute_error": 147.46767881943742 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.29716249999547, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.7624572916604 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T06:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.009470186057511931, "return_12h": -0.0006214769177873558, "return_24h": 0.010083072643128022, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007366258499877043, "close_vs_ema24": 0.006425065846707101, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0009650833005221404, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0014200405185830212, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T07:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:53.991277Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T07:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83969.94, "last_price_dollars": "0.1900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.8200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.8100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T07:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "114505.59", "open_time": "2026-09-29T07:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T07:00:00.953283Z", "volume_24h_fp": "130934.03", "volume_fp": "188835.64", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.1900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7176.18", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.1800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5663.27", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,969.94" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T07:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:53.991277Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T07:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83969.94, "last_price_dollars": "0.1800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.8300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.8200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T07:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "118086.15", "open_time": "2026-09-29T07:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T07:00:00.953283Z", "volume_24h_fp": "130934.03", "volume_fp": "194073.33", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.1800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10603.28", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.1700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4537.76", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,969.94" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.17, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.18, "yes_ask_size": 10603.28, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.83, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 525, "entry_price": 0.18, "gross_cost": 94.5, "trading_fee": 5.43, "total_deployed": 99.93, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -94.5, "net_pnl": -99.93, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.18, "gross_cost": 18.0, "trading_fee": 1.04, "total_deployed": 19.04, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -18.0, "net_pnl": -19.04, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T06:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0013088750797083382, "return_30m": 0.0016761057602567853, "return_60m": 0.007126781152563932, "return_120m": 0.009622887798971691, "consecutive_up_closes": 5, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.001133746910040978, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0028999785913872422, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00523727876783342, "ema3_slope": 0.0011350337510489528, "ema6_slope": 0.001161338579361848, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004710622149728394, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002119040906689082, "return_acceleration": 0.0009421244299456788 } }, { "id": 123, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T0715Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:16:15.854509Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290330", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290330-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290330-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:15:00Z", "strike": 83953.97, "brti_reference_price": 83953.97316666665, "yes_ask": 0.61, "no_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 7394.35, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.61, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7394.35, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 159, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:16:16.016587Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.162078, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T07:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 59.94736979164736, "small_mean_absolute_error": 46.99424479164736 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.625, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 132.6626770833227, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.2574036458227 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 119.81162326388342, "small_mean_absolute_error": 141.85589409721675 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.80226770832742, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.71326562499235 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.011595657203859355, "return_12h": 0.0029913652981701233, "return_24h": 0.010887515930332325, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006879817780839348, "close_vs_ema24": 0.006104355481368451, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0013425136107474422, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0011534361363296775, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T07:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:54.350675Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T07:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83953.97, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T07:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "97815.35", "open_time": "2026-09-29T07:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T07:15:00.852476Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "151712.80", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7394.35", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7173.98", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,953.97" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T07:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:54.350675Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T07:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83953.97, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T07:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "97815.35", "open_time": "2026-09-29T07:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T07:15:00.852476Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "151712.80", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7394.35", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7173.98", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,953.97" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.6, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 7394.35, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.4, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 159, "entry_price": 0.61, "gross_cost": 96.99, "trading_fee": 2.65, "total_deployed": 99.64, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 159.0, "gross_pnl": 62.010000000000005, "net_pnl": 59.36, "roi": 0.5957446808510638, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.61, "gross_cost": 61.0, "trading_fee": 1.67, "total_deployed": 62.67, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 39.0, "net_pnl": 37.33, "roi": 0.5956598053295037, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00019018114688240662, "return_30m": 0.0011184450094621212, "return_60m": 0.0015631141106164925, "return_120m": 0.00877358983100196, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00047145270044857135, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0019336788561621354, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004266466110700584, "ema3_slope": 0.00047167507293566224, "ema6_slope": 0.0007740702637859531, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007495281132953724, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005655092953386402, "return_acceleration": -0.0014990562265907448 } }, { "id": 124, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T0730Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:31:17.695611Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290345", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290345-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290345-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:30:00Z", "strike": 83962.58, "brti_reference_price": 83962.57683333334, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 1597.3, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1597.3, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:31:17.868248Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.172637, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T07:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 56.646723958318034, "small_mean_absolute_error": 48.521723958318034 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.4277109374907, "small_mean_absolute_error": 134.1318124999907 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.99912326388221, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.84026909721555 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.05023645832917, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.61084374999409 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.013884618657368009, "return_12h": 0.0040975934092337685, "return_24h": 0.012509519294162885, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006696074512822836, "close_vs_ema24": 0.006078700626647393, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.001662269393234883, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0008460169571723464, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T07:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:54.742258Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T07:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83962.58, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T07:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "107139.14", "open_time": "2026-09-29T07:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T07:30:00.853272Z", "volume_24h_fp": "152649.42", "volume_fp": "169771.04", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8370.26", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "586.88", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,962.58" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T07:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:54.742258Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T07:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83962.58, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T07:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T07:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "114042.97", "open_time": "2026-09-29T07:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T07:30:00.853272Z", "volume_24h_fp": "152649.42", "volume_fp": "200755.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1597.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6710.83", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,962.58" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 1597.3, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 209.0, "gross_pnl": 112.86, "net_pnl": 109.22, "roi": 1.0946081379033874, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 54.0, "net_pnl": 52.26, "roi": 1.0946795140343526, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0001024807563259067, "return_30m": -8.771988046418766e-05, "return_60m": 0.0015882388519958823, "return_120m": 0.008145717892099391, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0002869085456640441, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0014536954855119966, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0036946875428240933, "ema3_slope": 0.0002869908858020853, "ema6_slope": 0.0005818165078170789, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00014633095160415666, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.000562128647850694, "return_acceleration": 0.0002926619032083133 } }, { "id": 125, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T0745Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:46:21.037687Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290400", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290400-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290400-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:45:00Z", "strike": 83994.96, "brti_reference_price": 83994.9555, "yes_ask": 0.52, "no_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 1772.93, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.52, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1772.93, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 186, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:46:21.358574Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.320887, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T08:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 58.811260416656296, "small_mean_absolute_error": 54.936260416656296 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 124.38726041665723, "small_mean_absolute_error": 138.83452604165723 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 114.89942708332576, "small_mean_absolute_error": 125.5140104166591 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.54105937499553, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.11143229166046 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.013040061929410873, "return_12h": 0.00864561677901543, "return_24h": 0.013271442186788773, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006793169932782561, "close_vs_ema24": 0.006332518602539139, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0020151610078809057, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0005617489495876038, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T08:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:55.098107Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T08:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83994.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T08:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "105476.68", "open_time": "2026-09-29T07:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T07:45:00.854877Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "172784.78", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5661.25", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3712.07", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,994.96" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T08:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:55.098107Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T08:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83994.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T08:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T08:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109206.50", "open_time": "2026-09-29T07:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T07:45:00.854877Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "183716.71", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1772.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8104.65", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,994.96" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.51, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 1772.93, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.49, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 186, "entry_price": 0.52, "gross_cost": 96.72, "trading_fee": 3.25, "total_deployed": 99.97, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.72, "net_pnl": -99.97, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.52, "gross_cost": 52.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 53.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -52.0, "net_pnl": -53.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T07:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00038563212192643803, "return_30m": 0.0004881523981239422, "return_60m": 0.0016071433791997602, "return_120m": 0.008655290503875257, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0003362125774557523, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0013135153646754993, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003451616290239823, "ema3_slope": 0.00033632565437113904, "ema6_slope": 0.0005256823426036394, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00014157568280026567, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005619342154019784, "return_acceleration": 0.00028315136560053134 } }, { "id": 126, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T0830Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:31:18.243374Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290445", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290445-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290445-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:30:00Z", "strike": 84139.03, "brti_reference_price": 84139.0265, "yes_ask": 0.28, "no_ask": 0.73, "yes_ask_size": 2158.24, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.73, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 134, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:31:18.435591Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.192217, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.47931250000329, "small_mean_absolute_error": 74.66290625000329 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.625, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.06301822916066, "small_mean_absolute_error": 61.59231510416066 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 106.11157812499489, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.30884374999489 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 97.5018510416623, "small_mean_absolute_error": 112.688009374994 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.014671125573850086, "return_12h": 0.007642905378044906, "return_24h": 0.016226245466866906, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007651910237738813, "close_vs_ema24": 0.007640169577515454, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0029251348062360183, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0002325725640890397, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T08:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:56.009628Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T08:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T08:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84139.03, "last_price_dollars": "0.2700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T08:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T08:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "61698.44", "open_time": "2026-09-29T08:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T08:30:00.858931Z", "volume_24h_fp": "70460.26", "volume_fp": "101473.90", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6146.83", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9294.04", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,139.03" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T08:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:56.009628Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T08:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T08:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84139.03, "last_price_dollars": "0.2800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T08:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T08:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "66248.74", "open_time": "2026-09-29T08:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T08:30:00.858931Z", "volume_24h_fp": "70460.26", "volume_fp": "107633.99", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2158.24", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10263.72", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,139.03" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.27, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.28, "yes_ask_size": 2158.24, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.73, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0013236710338933033, "return_30m": 0.0023163098257348302, "return_60m": 0.002101527529543512, "return_120m": 0.00369310410921031, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0008760944278727312, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0017108307498838737, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0035569161711339614, "ema3_slope": 0.0008768626423476533, "ema6_slope": 0.0006848009313500381, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00016617221617964972, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007313821703861668, "return_acceleration": 0.00033234443235929945 } }, { "id": 127, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T0845Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:46:27.241511Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290500", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290500-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290500-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:45:00Z", "strike": 83849.11, "brti_reference_price": 83849.11299999998, "yes_ask": 0.44, "no_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 5911.27, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:46:27.476732Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.235221, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 158.28835937500844, "small_mean_absolute_error": 154.34890625000844 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 108.54980989583237, "small_mean_absolute_error": 104.64258333333237 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 135.68762673610763, "small_mean_absolute_error": 144.00598611110763 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 116.32516249999753, "small_mean_absolute_error": 126.01874270832923 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.01053201019743022, "return_12h": 0.004664791244593625, "return_24h": 0.01192475934179349, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0040086041672704464, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0040819116522154975, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.003087567921475909, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0004436759341248653, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:56.338784Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290500", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T09:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83849.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T09:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "84699.97", "open_time": "2026-09-29T08:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290500-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T08:45:00.85135Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "146966.20", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10987.74", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "20.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,849.11" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:56.338784Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290500", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T09:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83849.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T09:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "93276.68", "open_time": "2026-09-29T08:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290500-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T08:45:00.85135Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "176299.67", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5911.27", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7374.03", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,849.11" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 5911.27, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.57, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0034456483757869805, "return_30m": -0.002126538246841725, "return_60m": -0.0017363245105833647, "return_120m": -0.00013197165382505816, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0012879429940962916, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0012439847964821338, "close_vs_ema12": 8.377803477399581e-05, "ema3_slope": -0.0012862863306283279, "ema6_slope": -0.0004973464420279239, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.002384659704840142, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0018853669023544762, "return_acceleration": -0.004769319409680284 } }, { "id": 128, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T0900Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:01:20.778579Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290515", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290515-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290515-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "strike": 83844.3, "brti_reference_price": 83844.29766666667, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 3714.0, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:01:21.007165Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.228586, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 165.42851041667382, "small_mean_absolute_error": 180.06132291667382 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.20238541666913, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.05590104166913 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.68041493055232, "small_mean_absolute_error": 130.2351024305523 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.2, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.0662489583301, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.50296770833012 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.010996474905286435, "return_12h": 0.004076803124090089, "return_24h": 0.011068221788248955, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0037890712899439905, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0039409599246085225, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.003191065718060271, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.000659891585893968, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T09:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:56.683069Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T09:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83844.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T09:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "106533.15", "open_time": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T09:00:00.926459Z", "volume_24h_fp": "122719.77", "volume_fp": "154146.34", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "377.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9120.50", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,844.30" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T09:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:56.683069Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T09:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83844.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T09:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "108753.24", "open_time": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T09:00:00.926459Z", "volume_24h_fp": "122719.77", "volume_fp": "162327.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3714.00", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8873.13", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,844.30" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 3714.0, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T08:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -5.742855423307436e-05, "return_30m": -0.0035028790514154418, "return_60m": -0.0011946829788458402, "return_120m": -0.001496309226966419, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0006731015527590145, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0009298756749585024, "close_vs_ema12": 2.22915528966805e-05, "ema3_slope": -0.0006726487918126134, "ema6_slope": -0.0003718119744190451, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001694109910776953, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0018879712062636101, "return_acceleration": 0.003388219821553906 } }, { "id": 129, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T0915Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:16:20.178533Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290530", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290530-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290530-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:15:00Z", "strike": 83760.07, "brti_reference_price": 83760.06749999999, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 3694.64, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:16:20.360474Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.181941, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 173.93005208334216, "small_mean_absolute_error": 206.69372395834216 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 114.90726302083931, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.14066145833931 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 96.58729861110866, "small_mean_absolute_error": 100.42518923610866 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.2, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.84987916666577, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.9698010416658 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.010626490890810025, "return_12h": 0.0026075495928543635, "return_24h": 0.011267742318151752, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002666863460383695, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002871764042597702, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0030291602056424782, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0008639884200911663, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T09:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:57.071426Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T09:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83760.07, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T09:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "90967.68", "open_time": "2026-09-29T09:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T09:15:00.866229Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "138515.96", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2767.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4986.07", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,760.07" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T09:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:57.071426Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T09:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83760.07, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T09:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T09:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "92819.52", "open_time": "2026-09-29T09:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T09:15:00.866229Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "141865.34", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3694.64", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4956.99", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,760.07" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 3694.64, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T09:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0010046022092229379, "return_30m": -0.0010619730706035169, "return_60m": -0.003186252991093541, "return_120m": -0.0023096663487469637, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0008392174767573035, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0013818660631488289, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0008313305263130122, "ema3_slope": -0.0008385137813373689, "ema6_slope": -0.000552441065435394, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00047358682749493175, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0017394427605856569, "return_acceleration": -0.0009471736549898635 } }, { "id": 130, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T1015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T10:16:18.093594Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T10:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290630", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290630-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290630-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T10:15:00Z", "strike": 84201.18, "brti_reference_price": 84201.17733333331, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 1651.5, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1651.5, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T10:16:18.265984Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.17239, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T10:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 1.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.76878125000803, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.63505729166354 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 147.8494166666751, "small_mean_absolute_error": 154.16439062500285 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.19443576389556, "small_mean_absolute_error": 118.63879340278072 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.2, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.38173229166641, "small_mean_absolute_error": 125.68623749999752 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T10:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.013205102776107314, "return_12h": 0.012361326046466559, "return_24h": 0.018371470851970884, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006985664524441493, "close_vs_ema24": 0.007639100713966451, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0028390981955415118, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0017096730765582269, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T10:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:58.460987Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T10:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T10:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84201.18, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T10:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T10:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "50587.49", "open_time": "2026-09-29T10:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T10:15:00.854625Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "96550.54", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7413.86", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5558.32", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,201.18" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T10:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:00:58.460987Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T10:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T10:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84201.18, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T10:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T10:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "51329.65", "open_time": "2026-09-29T10:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP290630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T10:15:00.854625Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "100929.86", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1651.50", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8165.52", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,201.18" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 1651.5, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 252, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 95.76, "trading_fee": 4.16, "total_deployed": 99.92, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.76, "net_pnl": -99.92, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 38.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 39.65, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -38.0, "net_pnl": -39.65, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T10:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00024761533498363075, "return_30m": 0.002982421426339865, "return_60m": 0.00526635002214304, "return_120m": 0.0020633171075392642, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0008654859658869807, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0018578047222805871, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002982587327380104, "ema3_slope": 0.0008662356807118687, "ema6_slope": 0.0007436745297333403, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0017392260505176282, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012699116075667986, "return_acceleration": -0.0034784521010352565 } }, { "id": 131, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T1415Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:16:19.368735Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291030-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:15:00Z", "strike": 83927.02, "brti_reference_price": 83927.02116666664, "yes_ask": 0.42, "no_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 9538.37, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.59, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 164, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:16:19.642581Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.273846, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 167.92607291668173, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.07122395834813 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 143.71445052083982, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.40323697917302 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 140.4475208333412, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.9602690972291 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.65, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 116.78799270833915, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.4958645833387 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0011993669365083504, "return_12h": 0.010973044556193745, "return_24h": 0.006338899072452442, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0003862697210155197, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0022473954082375958, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.002573681542992423, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.003008788282213848, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:03.864122Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T14:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T14:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83927.02, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T14:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T14:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "84804.51", "open_time": "2026-09-29T14:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T14:15:00.867325Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "140849.86", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "235.00", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8958.60", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,927.02" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T14:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:03.864122Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T14:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T14:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83927.02, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T14:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T14:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "91534.00", "open_time": "2026-09-29T14:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T14:15:00.867325Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "149806.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9538.37", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5924.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,927.02" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.41, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 9538.37, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.59, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00329098443688125, "return_30m": -0.0028829542616506387, "return_60m": -0.005479705467845708, "return_120m": -0.004729692052797052, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0018019329416877339, "close_vs_ema6": -0.002740206032267656, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002934076177256051, "ema3_slope": -0.00179869181964587, "ema6_slope": -0.0010948823316391243, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0018501809334314223, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0014114139956856312, "return_acceleration": -0.0037003618668628446 } }, { "id": 132, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T1500Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T15:01:19.366268Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T15:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291115-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T15:00:00Z", "strike": 83763.79, "brti_reference_price": 83763.786, "yes_ask": 0.24, "no_ask": 0.77, "yes_ask_size": 6182.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.24, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6182.57, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 395, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T15:01:19.579968Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.2137, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T15:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 145.30276041667457, "small_mean_absolute_error": 179.65236979167457 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.65970312500758, "small_mean_absolute_error": 143.03696614584078 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 119.56750520833884, "small_mean_absolute_error": 133.1447065972267 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 107.50885520833909, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.43136250000752 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0009602521448358603, "return_12h": 0.01002566337183719, "return_24h": 0.00976613046314867, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0014932680835558765, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00021868667065882974, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0017682048675011774, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0027577012340145313, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T15:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:04.792583Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T15:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T15:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83763.79, "last_price_dollars": "0.2900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T15:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T15:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "152549.48", "open_time": "2026-09-29T15:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T15:00:01.104632Z", "volume_24h_fp": "114449.28", "volume_fp": "192508.92", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9774.62", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2817.25", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,763.79" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T15:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:04.792583Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T15:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T15:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83763.79, "last_price_dollars": "0.2400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T15:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T15:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "181394.51", "open_time": "2026-09-29T15:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T15:00:01.104632Z", "volume_24h_fp": "114449.28", "volume_fp": "230630.76", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6182.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6319.92", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,763.79" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.23, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.24, "yes_ask_size": 6182.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.77, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 395, "entry_price": 0.24, "gross_cost": 94.8, "trading_fee": 5.05, "total_deployed": 99.85, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -94.8, "net_pnl": -99.85, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.24, "gross_cost": 24.0, "trading_fee": 1.28, "total_deployed": 25.28, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -24.0, "net_pnl": -25.28, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T14:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0009354098691222168, "return_30m": -0.00213944609925254, "return_60m": -0.005229549156705038, "return_120m": -0.0065213265576363755, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0009708145992132211, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0022122159248377793, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003313882873943075, "ema3_slope": -0.0009698730323139948, "ema6_slope": -0.0008841040383219534, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00013487684144430911, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012589997503432602, "return_acceleration": 0.00026975368288861823 } }, { "id": 133, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T1800Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:01:21.337014Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291415", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291415-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291415-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:00:00Z", "strike": 83014.32, "brti_reference_price": 83014.3173333333, "yes_ask": 0.86, "no_ask": 0.15, "yes_ask_size": 1138.1, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.86, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1138.1, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 115, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:01:21.546753Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.209739, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 47.887177083346614, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.12668750001103 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 93.52583593750569, "small_mean_absolute_error": 149.39425260417374 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.6863732638934, "small_mean_absolute_error": 178.9788593750054 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 141.47570520833906, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.60210208333956 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T17:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.01579417430247776, "return_12h": -0.004334889957161692, "return_24h": -0.010086659736521453, "close_vs_ema12": -0.006705625408493399, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007016921160193923, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003746813295533169, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00042074646793366366, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:08.28881Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291415", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T18:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83014.32, "last_price_dollars": "0.8700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.1300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.1200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T18:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "235365.61", "open_time": "2026-09-29T18:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291415-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T18:00:01.147381Z", "volume_24h_fp": "198679.90", "volume_fp": "312424.56", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.8800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7189.64", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.8700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2704.35", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,014.32" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:08.28881Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291415", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T18:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83014.32, "last_price_dollars": "0.8600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.1500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.1400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T18:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "255102.96", "open_time": "2026-09-29T18:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291415-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T18:00:01.147381Z", "volume_24h_fp": "198679.90", "volume_fp": "340062.43", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.8600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1138.10", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.8500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6333.58", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,014.32" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.85, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.86, "yes_ask_size": 1138.1, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.15, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 115, "entry_price": 0.86, "gross_cost": 98.89999999999999, "trading_fee": 0.97, "total_deployed": 99.86999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 115.0, "gross_pnl": 16.10000000000001, "net_pnl": 15.13000000000001, "roi": 0.1514969460298389, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.86, "gross_cost": 86.0, "trading_fee": 0.85, "total_deployed": 86.85, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 14.0, "net_pnl": 13.150000000000006, "roi": 0.1514104778353484, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T17:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00128742726646347, "return_30m": -0.001170214047239937, "return_60m": -0.00027300886155556814, "return_120m": 0.00020966843440417549, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0005756025954151145, "close_vs_ema6": -0.000914239141299289, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002367141389778449, "ema3_slope": -0.0005752714676651172, "ema6_slope": -0.0003655619720942527, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007023957918545487, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007795774319976005, "return_acceleration": -0.0014047915837090974 } }, { "id": 134, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T1815Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:16:19.006190Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291430", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291430-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291430-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "strike": 83388.93, "brti_reference_price": 83388.9265, "yes_ask": 0.7, "no_ask": 0.31, "yes_ask_size": 1038.14, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.7, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1038.14, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 139, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:16:19.208766Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.202576, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T18:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 140.88652083334455, "small_mean_absolute_error": 205.80376562500896 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 131.69336458333964, "small_mean_absolute_error": 197.70053645834014 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 157.7148750000039, "small_mean_absolute_error": 193.06335069444927 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 156.96239583333954, "small_mean_absolute_error": 175.32199583334005 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.011110826962071774, "return_12h": -0.005177840221121666, "return_24h": -0.006626212480492333, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00213274667011476, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0024838468252144086, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0035925428928471614, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0006429436984242143, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T18:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:08.556616Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291430", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T18:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83388.93, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T18:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "107405.18", "open_time": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291430-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T18:15:00.906317Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "185004.60", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4504.48", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8145.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,388.93" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T18:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:08.556616Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291430", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T18:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83388.93, "last_price_dollars": "0.7000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T18:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "126309.87", "open_time": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291430-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T18:15:00.906317Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "220829.88", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1038.14", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8685.78", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,388.93" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.69, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.7, "yes_ask_size": 1038.14, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.31, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 139, "entry_price": 0.7, "gross_cost": 97.3, "trading_fee": 2.05, "total_deployed": 99.35, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 139.0, "gross_pnl": 41.7, "net_pnl": 39.650000000000006, "roi": 0.3990941117262205, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.7, "gross_cost": 70.0, "trading_fee": 1.47, "total_deployed": 71.47, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 30.0, "net_pnl": 28.53, "roi": 0.3991884706870016, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.004512585041957395, "return_30m": 0.0032193481504687593, "return_60m": 0.003353383974674662, "return_120m": 0.005040051283293767, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0019633302469121983, "close_vs_ema6": 0.002564666520126657, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0018057437933378662, "ema3_slope": 0.0019671924954400843, "ema6_slope": 0.001026920091081296, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0029000061542104327, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0021917236943252687, "return_acceleration": 0.0058000123084208655 } }, { "id": 135, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T1830Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:31:17.669275Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291445", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291445-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291445-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:30:00Z", "strike": 83422.15, "brti_reference_price": 83422.15000000001, "yes_ask": 0.59, "no_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 10182.45, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.59, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10182.45, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 164, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:31:17.848067Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.178792, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T18:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 154.45588541667894, "small_mean_absolute_error": 224.33479166667894 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.042867187507, "small_mean_absolute_error": 185.9865625000075 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 129.39933680555865, "small_mean_absolute_error": 165.4574479166707 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 158.12601250000662, "small_mean_absolute_error": 176.40267604167383 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.008838949686346353, "return_12h": -0.00485850421665901, "return_24h": -0.005934159158482499, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0016644743858605926, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0020435302364962826, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0032344074892952657, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0008129804231032933, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:08.805082Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83422.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "115200.23", "open_time": "2026-09-29T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T18:30:00.886094Z", "volume_24h_fp": "154301.42", "volume_fp": "213598.19", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10271.96", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1618.78", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,422.15" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:08.805082Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83422.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.5900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "126222.63", "open_time": "2026-09-29T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T18:30:00.886094Z", "volume_24h_fp": "154301.42", "volume_fp": "233490.76", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10182.45", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3423.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,422.15" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.58, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 10182.45, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.42, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 164, "entry_price": 0.59, "gross_cost": 96.75999999999999, "trading_fee": 2.78, "total_deployed": 99.53999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 164.0, "gross_pnl": 67.24000000000001, "net_pnl": 64.46000000000001, "roi": 0.6475788627687363, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.59, "gross_cost": 59.0, "trading_fee": 1.7, "total_deployed": 60.7, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 41.0, "net_pnl": 39.3, "roi": 0.6474464579901152, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0003984162093753074, "return_30m": 0.004912799138359736, "return_60m": 0.003736836064556659, "return_120m": 0.0022111730302529775, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.001179870600375832, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0021154259976416956, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0018650345762023512, "ema3_slope": 0.0011812643394411015, "ema6_slope": 0.0008468870097757542, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.002057084416291044, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0021618711652830543, "return_acceleration": -0.004114168832582088 } }, { "id": 136, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T1900Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:01:19.020277Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291515", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291515-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291515-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:00:00Z", "strike": 83603.76, "brti_reference_price": 83603.75633333334, "yes_ask": 0.43, "no_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 11593.66, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.58, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 167, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:01:19.227836Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.207559, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 168.66388541666674, "small_mean_absolute_error": 247.63263541666674 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 108.27553125000668, "small_mean_absolute_error": 191.8796614583389 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 118.57185243055937, "small_mean_absolute_error": 182.1403802083381 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 153.2051531250043, "small_mean_absolute_error": 192.84431666667152 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.008419355151418118, "return_12h": -0.00436092155959833, "return_24h": -0.004979688265296045, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00045743948710530447, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00011814739425464182, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0024500979543538026, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0011240665942718886, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:09.375757Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83603.76, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "79121.25", "open_time": "2026-09-29T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T19:00:01.028493Z", "volume_24h_fp": "111152.77", "volume_fp": "126215.94", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8317.23", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4411.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,603.76" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:09.375757Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83603.76, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "84103.27", "open_time": "2026-09-29T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T19:00:01.028493Z", "volume_24h_fp": "111152.77", "volume_fp": "141741.93", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "11593.66", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1886.10", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,603.76" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.42, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 11593.66, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.58, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T18:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00027317464052689644, "return_30m": 0.002176955800507807, "return_60m": 0.0071004498854483344, "return_120m": 0.00682550253815295, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007693158652040122, "close_vs_ema6": 0.002131729592402154, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0028577753942402584, "ema3_slope": 0.0007699081677721153, "ema6_slope": 0.0008534195408367307, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0013619872889767404, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0018735692787585614, "return_acceleration": -0.0027239745779534807 } }, { "id": 137, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T1915Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:16:18.800393Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291530", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291530-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291530-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:15:00Z", "strike": 83568.3, "brti_reference_price": 83568.29933333333, "yes_ask": 0.5, "no_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 5971.01, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.51, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 189, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:16:18.975344Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.174951, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 85.75000520833419, "small_mean_absolute_error": 188.0918020833342 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.31826302083937, "small_mean_absolute_error": 196.94778385417158 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 116.37891145833783, "small_mean_absolute_error": 194.49762500000483 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 140.52718229167004, "small_mean_absolute_error": 188.92611145833726 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00973049548019822, "return_12h": -0.004593872318200742, "return_24h": -0.0016162489702675753, "close_vs_ema12": 3.1785141503037906e-05, "close_vs_ema24": -0.000299693956509528, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0020597478007595704, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0013029695333458546, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T19:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:09.687555Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T19:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83568.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T19:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "94612.68", "open_time": "2026-09-29T19:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T19:15:00.874485Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "188183.74", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3934.87", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3527.73", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,568.30" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T19:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:09.687555Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291530", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T19:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83568.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T19:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "95599.98", "open_time": "2026-09-29T19:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291530-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T19:15:00.874485Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "198904.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5971.01", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4595.26", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,568.30" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 5971.01, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.51, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0004241077381575975, "return_30m": -0.0006971665232055058, "return_60m": 0.0021510390031622695, "return_120m": 0.005511636237558903, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00017241119637079194, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0012184899456078035, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002057461753594003, "ema3_slope": 0.00017244092711732328, "ema6_slope": 0.00048763364892256966, "realized_volatility_30m": 7.546654881535053e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011469462532508123, "return_acceleration": -0.00015093309763070106 } }, { "id": 138, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T1930Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:31:21.410371Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291545", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291545-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291545-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:30:00Z", "strike": 83519.15, "brti_reference_price": 83519.15316666667, "yes_ask": 0.61, "no_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 8022.46, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.4, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 239, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:31:21.629157Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.218786, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 87.37733854166436, "small_mean_absolute_error": 203.77382291666436 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.91661197917165, "small_mean_absolute_error": 214.05430729167165 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.82102430555945, "small_mean_absolute_error": 191.91564930555978 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 142.59586250000285, "small_mean_absolute_error": 194.08502604167006 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.009758244564010754, "return_12h": -0.005281206025237517, "return_24h": -0.0012052528510054783, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0005336341569421865, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0008693036702206447, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0018391295855723078, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0014785941468864472, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T19:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:09.991731Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T19:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83519.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.5900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T19:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "89000.75", "open_time": "2026-09-29T19:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T19:30:00.882634Z", "volume_24h_fp": "176508.26", "volume_fp": "203445.17", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6745.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8157.81", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,519.15" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T19:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:09.991731Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T19:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83519.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T19:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T19:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "102847.45", "open_time": "2026-09-29T19:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T19:30:00.882634Z", "volume_24h_fp": "176508.26", "volume_fp": "239162.90", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8022.46", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3377.13", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,519.15" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.6, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 8022.46, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.4, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T19:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0005880958097594924, "return_30m": -0.0010119541319333347, "return_60m": 0.0011627986891571407, "return_120m": 0.004903979941791148, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0002079362323332834, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00044968877389095496, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0012420052797137426, "ema3_slope": -0.000207893003845383, "ema6_slope": 0.00017990787057642343, "realized_volatility_30m": 8.199403580094744e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012517204968850435, "return_acceleration": -0.00016398807160189488 } }, { "id": 139, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T2015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T20:16:18.480698Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T20:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291630", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291630-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291630-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T20:15:00Z", "strike": 83532.07, "brti_reference_price": 83532.07116666669, "yes_ask": 0.56, "no_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 6996.29, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.56, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6996.29, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 173, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T20:16:18.694681Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.213983, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T20:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 58.1710468750025, "small_mean_absolute_error": 174.50265104165737 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 71.96052604166834, "small_mean_absolute_error": 181.29722656249578 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.93585763889375, "small_mean_absolute_error": 189.46607291666683 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.2, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.41313541666969, "small_mean_absolute_error": 188.35690104166787 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T20:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.004705874157211465, "return_12h": -0.005899597023848235, "return_24h": -9.393513273903142e-05, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0003058272779160598, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0006562848212022798, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.000990637000680361, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0018137538172841028, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:10.878927Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83532.07, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T20:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "130303.92", "open_time": "2026-09-29T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T20:15:00.640061Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "228101.08", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4825.60", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9777.50", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,532.07" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:10.878927Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83532.07, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T20:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "134332.87", "open_time": "2026-09-29T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T20:15:00.640061Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "236514.87", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6996.29", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7607.81", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,532.07" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 6996.29, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.45, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 173, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 96.88000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.99, "total_deployed": 99.87, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 173.0, "gross_pnl": 76.11999999999999, "net_pnl": 73.13, "roi": 0.7322519275057574, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 56.00000000000001, "trading_fee": 1.73, "total_deployed": 57.730000000000004, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 43.99999999999999, "net_pnl": 42.269999999999996, "roi": 0.7322016282695305, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T20:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0003118926421509238, "return_30m": 0.0010908939650058347, "return_60m": -0.00043351566270521946, "return_120m": 0.0017165908313581113, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 5.155580621374334e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0003154172537269684, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0009253516227765157, "ema3_slope": 5.1558464352119415e-05, "ema6_slope": 0.00012618282158638472, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008575584523152213, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009000176652154507, "return_acceleration": -0.0017151169046304426 } }, { "id": 140, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T2130Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:31:20.327790Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291745", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291745-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291745-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:30:00Z", "strike": 83365.49, "brti_reference_price": 83365.48550000001, "yes_ask": 0.68, "no_ask": 0.33, "yes_ask_size": 9665.15, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.33, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 289, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:31:20.532972Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.205182, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 81.88246354166768, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.12658854166511 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.32717968750148, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.94316927082764 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.9166666666666666, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 77.34389930555578, "small_mean_absolute_error": 158.5533871527732 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.15, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 97.22348645833627, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.52665729166694 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.004588572522577161, "return_12h": -0.005473278997776609, "return_24h": -0.0006040716694276638, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002260264730491901, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0025970385711719945, "ema12_slope_3h": -8.251562877659158e-05, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0016715211575097921, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T21:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:12.482678Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291745", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T21:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T21:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83365.49, "last_price_dollars": "0.6700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T21:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T21:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "114370.89", "open_time": "2026-09-29T21:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291745-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T21:30:00.557942Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "170336.05", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8219.79", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2920.05", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,365.49" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T21:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:12.482678Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291745", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T21:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T21:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83365.49, "last_price_dollars": "0.6800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T21:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T21:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "129423.29", "open_time": "2026-09-29T21:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291745-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T21:30:00.557942Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "193382.63", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9665.15", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2034.71", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,365.49" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.67, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.68, "yes_ask_size": 9665.15, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.33, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0019144995800666198, "return_30m": -0.002931359548526191, "return_60m": -0.002886733642037731, "return_120m": -0.0018399093003255151, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0011853325664943348, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0016592550318549337, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0015453699827703282, "ema3_slope": -0.0011839292166372362, "ema6_slope": -0.0006632618045472327, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00044784454968482823, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008119415229326303, "return_acceleration": -0.0008956890993696565 } }, { "id": 141, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T2145Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:46:27.001507Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291800", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291800-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291800-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:45:00Z", "strike": 83486.71, "brti_reference_price": 83486.70916666668, "yes_ask": 0.22, "no_ask": 0.79, "yes_ask_size": 4988.01, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.79, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 124, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:46:27.231829Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.230322, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 65.36826041666063, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.88493229167216 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.625, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 60.55578645833339, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.92523958333004 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 59.48471874999935, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.25120312499712 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.2, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 82.82700208333554, "small_mean_absolute_error": 162.0518708333344 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.004293309610167162, "return_12h": -0.005528136674272988, "return_24h": 0.0012674505949317183, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0007764162279331188, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0011231528289695758, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0001474745104536046, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0015494377607616627, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:12.731512Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T22:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83486.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.2300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T22:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "190873.13", "open_time": "2026-09-29T21:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T21:45:00.528895Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "236229.49", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5252.23", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6262.75", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,486.71" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:12.731512Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T22:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83486.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.2200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T22:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T22:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "200554.67", "open_time": "2026-09-29T21:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T21:45:00.528895Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "258285.90", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4988.01", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5829.35", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,486.71" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.21, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.22, "yes_ask_size": 4988.01, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.79, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T21:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0014541229615543383, "return_30m": -0.0004631605363115687, "return_60m": -0.0015555271419771532, "return_120m": 0.000547252648589236, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0001335155590940218, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0001482550992666365, "close_vs_ema12": -7.911159723550387e-05, "ema3_slope": 0.0001335333878791367, "ema6_slope": -5.929852318331541e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001684311270810479, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012470012887977992, "return_acceleration": 0.003368622541620958 } }, { "id": 142, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T2230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:31:22.213428Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291845", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291845-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291845-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:30:00Z", "strike": 83566.62, "brti_reference_price": 83566.61816666667, "yes_ask": 0.4, "no_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 3029.01, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.4, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3029.01, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 239, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:31:22.391475Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.178047, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T22:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 62.321661458336166, "small_mean_absolute_error": 130.25241666667716 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.625, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.10206250000192, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.18950260417114 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.9166666666666666, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 68.99200694444637, "small_mean_absolute_error": 134.0462517361108 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.15, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 89.76184895833649, "small_mean_absolute_error": 166.04947395833514 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.003946774555513732, "return_12h": -0.006560032269738891, "return_24h": 0.00442391900771133, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00016797180780403487, "close_vs_ema24": -0.00015180333768149978, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00013357405310843173, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.001102041256497932, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T22:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:13.484347Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T22:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T22:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83566.62, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T22:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T22:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "129104.39", "open_time": "2026-09-29T22:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T22:30:00.614904Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "250039.38", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "44.10", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9628.45", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,566.62" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T22:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:13.484347Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T22:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T22:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83566.62, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T22:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T22:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "136373.91", "open_time": "2026-09-29T22:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T22:30:00.614904Z", "volume_24h_fp": "186337.61", "volume_fp": "265926.58", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3029.01", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9704.39", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,566.62" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.39, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 3029.01, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.61, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 239, "entry_price": 0.4, "gross_cost": 95.60000000000001, "trading_fee": 4.02, "total_deployed": 99.62, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 239.0, "gross_pnl": 143.39999999999998, "net_pnl": 139.38, "roi": 1.3991166432443283, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.4, "gross_cost": 40.0, "trading_fee": 1.68, "total_deployed": 41.68, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 60.0, "net_pnl": 58.32, "roi": 1.399232245681382, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0009238411194527618, "return_30m": 0.0012088195749353492, "return_60m": 0.0024126611326056313, "return_120m": -0.0004810372194903323, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 5.594944292308668e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00028186165146215636, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0005443365131601041, "ema3_slope": 5.595257343848914e-05, "ema6_slope": 0.00011275737337657077, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0015292369376778137, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012380932307093587, "return_acceleration": -0.0030584738753556273 } }, { "id": 143, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T2245Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:46:21.914529Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291900", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291900-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291900-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:45:00Z", "strike": 83572.15, "brti_reference_price": 83572.15449999999, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 7649.58, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7649.58, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:46:22.154746Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.240217, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T23:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 68.78367187500407, "small_mean_absolute_error": 116.11179687500407 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.625, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 67.07596614583235, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.49836458333812 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.9166666666666666, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.29841493055695, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.98742534722139 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.15, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.01948020833588, "small_mean_absolute_error": 160.08718333333454 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.006516479204911274, "return_12h": -0.0049876905970343, "return_24h": 0.001526248544891029, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00022467078037702315, "close_vs_ema24": -8.357551099258398e-05, "ema12_slope_3h": -6.40864642706962e-05, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0009459916850330652, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:13.755717Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T23:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83572.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T23:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "81625.02", "open_time": "2026-09-29T22:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T22:45:00.841009Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "177460.24", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10266.24", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "24.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,572.15" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:13.755717Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T23:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83572.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T23:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "86251.43", "open_time": "2026-09-29T22:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T22:45:00.841009Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "191825.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7649.58", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10129.43", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,572.15" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 7649.58, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 209.0, "gross_pnl": 112.86, "net_pnl": 109.22, "roi": 1.0946081379033874, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 54.0, "net_pnl": 52.26, "roi": 1.0946795140343526, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 6.625053705389128e-05, "return_30m": -0.0008576517873690737, "return_60m": 0.0010234603110625962, "return_120m": -0.0005336588512072638, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 6.109811012167121e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0002486401701964347, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0005166325619412326, "ema3_slope": 6.110184332874802e-05, "ema6_slope": 9.94659605719761e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004950458282533265, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011417874054912632, "return_acceleration": 0.000990091656506653 } }, { "id": 144, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T2300Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:01:18.587879Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291915", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291915-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291915-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:00:00Z", "strike": 83573.58, "brti_reference_price": 83573.58016666668, "yes_ask": 0.62, "no_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 8403.89, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.62, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8403.89, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 157, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:01:18.768321Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.180442, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-29T23:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 68.79114583334012, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.80091145834012 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 69.53910677083513, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.52499218750563 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.9166666666666666, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 61.27388541666975, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.79818229166752 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.15, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 84.78701145833475, "small_mean_absolute_error": 151.5711208333334 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.006462096209283175, "return_12h": -0.005148344097680613, "return_24h": 0.0008383313577793317, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0002318647521410977, "close_vs_ema24": -6.521711302986954e-05, "ema12_slope_3h": -5.392483196986486e-05, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0007944044882537415, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T23:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:14.024197Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T23:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83573.58, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T23:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "86953.36", "open_time": "2026-09-29T23:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T23:00:00.714373Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "148611.93", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5581.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7809.32", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,573.58" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T23:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:14.024197Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T23:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83573.58, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T23:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "102722.44", "open_time": "2026-09-29T23:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T23:00:00.714373Z", "volume_24h_fp": "134212.53", "volume_fp": "192026.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8403.89", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6906.93", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,573.58" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.61, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 8403.89, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.39, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 157, "entry_price": 0.62, "gross_cost": 97.34, "trading_fee": 2.59, "total_deployed": 99.93, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 157.0, "gross_pnl": 59.66, "net_pnl": 57.06999999999999, "roi": 0.5710997698388871, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.62, "gross_cost": 62.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 63.65, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 38.0, "net_pnl": 36.35, "roi": 0.5710919088766693, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T22:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 1.7059111078632228e-05, "return_30m": 8.33107783078102e-05, "return_60m": 0.0012922310609426724, "return_120m": -0.0004425038172349849, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 3.90776046210739e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00018977382387563857, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00045155564296162076, "ema3_slope": 3.90791317399497e-05, "ema6_slope": 7.59152922442663e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 2.4595712987629526e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011176029068732682, "return_acceleration": -4.919142597525905e-05 } }, { "id": 145, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260929T2330Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:31:21.507700Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291945", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291945-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291945-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:30:00Z", "strike": 83713.91, "brti_reference_price": 83713.90983333332, "yes_ask": 0.37, "no_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 8281.44, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.64, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 152, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:31:22.036455Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.528755, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 108.6639270833366, "small_mean_absolute_error": 99.6678333333366 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 85.49279427083638, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.96012500000688 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.9166666666666666, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 84.28935069444681, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.68227951389296 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.2, "agreement_accuracy": 0.15, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.85, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 80.60345729166802, "small_mean_absolute_error": 141.1160822916667 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.007247295720663738, "return_12h": -0.003879032305725061, "return_24h": 0.0020050655966572517, "close_vs_ema12": 0.001714170759699929, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0015249560829029285, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00013189965605242548, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00044529728726117046, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T23:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:14.526608Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291945", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T23:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83713.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T23:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "95252.40", "open_time": "2026-09-29T23:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291945-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T23:30:00.564113Z", "volume_24h_fp": "123936.33", "volume_fp": "156447.05", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8725.90", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3937.63", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,713.91" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-29T23:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:14.526608Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291945", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-29T23:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83713.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T23:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-29T23:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109794.46", "open_time": "2026-09-29T23:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP291945-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-29T23:30:00.564113Z", "volume_24h_fp": "123936.33", "volume_fp": "186712.06", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8281.44", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5755.22", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,713.91" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.36, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 8281.44, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.64, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-29T23:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0011208576593920716, "return_30m": 0.001679115174757273, "return_60m": 0.0017625658414570644, "return_120m": 0.0041794794481622155, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00014832090996641512, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0007234178917632228, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0013786307969334555, "ema3_slope": 0.0001483429123223523, "ema6_slope": 0.00028945091429344316, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0019619861930764704, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0014438791287890692, "return_acceleration": -0.003923972386152941 } }, { "id": 146, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260930T0030Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-30T00:31:20.434109Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-30T00:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292045", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292045-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292045-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-30T00:30:00Z", "strike": 83545.85, "brti_reference_price": 83545.84816666666, "yes_ask": 0.43, "no_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 12629.63, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.43, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 12629.63, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 223, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-30T00:31:20.613815Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.179706, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-09-30T00:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 48.614510416668054, "small_mean_absolute_error": 142.90956249999363 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 78.63921875000233, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.28869791666511 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.9166666666666666, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.20003298611361, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.27660416666913 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.15, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.85, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.85089166666876, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.94323020833252 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T00:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0014827976342812743, "return_12h": -0.007369258425749536, "return_24h": 0.0004957879628790796, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0003070472190893625, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0004768253188436322, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00020547270961057684, "ema24_slope_6h": -8.744241320246537e-05, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-30T00:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:15.781297Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T00:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-07T00:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83545.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T00:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-30T00:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "132044.07", "open_time": "2026-09-30T00:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T00:30:00.670011Z", "volume_24h_fp": "192259.59", "volume_fp": "229333.07", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "883.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8858.79", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,545.85" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-30T00:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:15.781297Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T00:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-07T00:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83545.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T00:45:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-30T00:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "144566.49", "open_time": "2026-09-30T00:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T00:30:00.670011Z", "volume_24h_fp": "192259.59", "volume_fp": "254573.80", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "12629.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3610.48", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,545.85" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.42, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 12629.63, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.58, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 223, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 95.89, "trading_fee": 3.83, "total_deployed": 99.72, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.89, "net_pnl": -99.72, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 43.0, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 44.72, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -43.0, "net_pnl": -44.72, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T00:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00039057683912391283, "return_30m": -0.0010024570621957052, "return_60m": -0.00200757158519127, "return_120m": -0.0002485442208344235, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00020218626077961321, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0004979986188612395, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0004699554046223575, "ema3_slope": -0.00020214538975904528, "ema6_slope": -0.0001991597750272689, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008915334330450997, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007516974510103735, "return_acceleration": 0.0017830668660901994 } }, { "id": 147, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260930T0115Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:16:19.693797Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292130", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292130-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292130-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:15:00Z", "strike": 83377.69, "brti_reference_price": 83377.693, "yes_ask": 0.61, "no_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 3026.56, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.4, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 239, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:16:19.903635Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.209838, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 56.93592708333745, "small_mean_absolute_error": 41.79920833333745 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.625, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.73125000000437, "small_mean_absolute_error": 92.82994791666715 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.00069270833653, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.44279340277838 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.94794166666907, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.96888125000187 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0022808449478317616, "return_12h": -0.011989146676574136, "return_24h": 0.004651822481762435, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002094205177547548, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0023626871962294516, "ema12_slope_3h": 8.17403294917085e-06, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0002179476329772223, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-30T01:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:16.524116Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T01:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-07T01:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83377.69, "last_price_dollars": "0.5900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T01:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-30T01:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "134506.76", "open_time": "2026-09-30T01:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T01:15:00.571293Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "245774.43", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2854.25", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8786.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,377.69" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-30T01:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:16.524116Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T01:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-07T01:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83377.69, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T01:30:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-30T01:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "151738.41", "open_time": "2026-09-30T01:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T01:15:00.571293Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "306240.21", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3026.56", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8316.82", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,377.69" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.6, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 3026.56, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.4, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0003639057410357305, "return_30m": -0.0008773980334895182, "return_60m": -0.0016229384685974013, "return_120m": -0.005132616073126317, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00047797997577092577, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0011179793539556337, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0016486402540560885, "ema3_slope": -0.0004777516200630272, "ema6_slope": -0.0004469918505182191, "realized_volatility_30m": 7.488674111821858e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005434336470305516, "return_acceleration": 0.00014977348223643716 } }, { "id": 148, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260930T0200Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-30T02:01:18.094708Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-30T02:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292215-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-30T02:00:00Z", "strike": 83410.72, "brti_reference_price": 83410.72216666667, "yes_ask": 0.57, "no_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 7485.13, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.44, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 218, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-30T02:01:18.339332Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.244624, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 47.68919791667213, "small_mean_absolute_error": 38.26469791666386 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.625, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 52.28159114583832, "small_mean_absolute_error": 69.43945833333419 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.37742534722686, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.15133333333263 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.04209791667017, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.10079687500183 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0017641630150204701, "return_12h": -0.009422500376238596, "return_24h": 0.004514594252738702, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0014986151205643727, "close_vs_ema24": -0.001848037195653074, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00021897815814686528, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0002745132155659302, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-30T02:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:17.298488Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T02:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-07T02:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83410.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T02:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-30T02:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "81171.24", "open_time": "2026-09-30T02:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:00 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T02:00:00.639188Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "168444.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7217.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10846.47", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,410.72" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-30T02:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-28T20:01:17.298488Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T02:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-07T02:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83410.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T02:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-30T02:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "83623.56", "open_time": "2026-09-30T02:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 PM EDT on Sep 29, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:00 PM EDT on September 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP292215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T02:00:00.639188Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "171401.33", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7485.13", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3152.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,410.72" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 7485.13, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.44, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00013108346382151304, "return_30m": -0.0001118635896025788, "return_60m": 3.208923046460477e-05, "return_120m": -0.002618223075100401, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 8.527515079181924e-06, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0002529092327191451, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0007548372282243365, "ema3_slope": 8.527587798345948e-06, "ema6_slope": -0.00010115346003014558, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0001869993375391843, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003414972151820561, "return_acceleration": 0.0003739986750783686 } }, { "id": 149, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260930T0500Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-30T05:01:19.829175Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-09-30T05:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP300115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP300115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP300115-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-30T05:00:00Z", "strike": 83180.06, "brti_reference_price": 83180.05883333334, "yes_ask": 0.88, "no_ask": 0.13, "yes_ask_size": 12932.94, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.13, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 725, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-30T05:01:20.013131Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183956, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 97.58892187500896, "small_mean_absolute_error": 57.174223958325456 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.625, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 93.00245572917083, "small_mean_absolute_error": 50.46893489582908 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.77735416666837, "small_mean_absolute_error": 44.958868055551044 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.97904895833635, "small_mean_absolute_error": 54.7511041666643 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T04:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0047086810514586075, "return_12h": 0.0017229872078512454, "return_24h": 0.00012562280736116982, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003214550682366868, "close_vs_ema24": -0.003953324706183925, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.001048683100276615, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0008236522985405337, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-30T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-29T20:00:48.027801Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP300115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-07T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83180.06, "last_price_dollars": "0.8600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T05:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.1400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.1300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-30T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "148759.00", "open_time": "2026-09-30T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Sep 30, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP300115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T05:00:00.783357Z", "volume_24h_fp": "154796.02", "volume_fp": "276192.89", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.8700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1092.50", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.8600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9496.73", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,180.06" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-09-30T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-29T20:00:48.027801Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP300115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-09-30T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-07T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83180.06, "last_price_dollars": "0.8700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T05:15:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.1300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.1200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-09-30T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "185601.31", "open_time": "2026-09-30T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Sep 30, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP300115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T05:00:00.783357Z", "volume_24h_fp": "154796.02", "volume_fp": "332439.85", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.8800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "12932.94", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.8700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3236.33", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,180.06" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.87, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.88, "yes_ask_size": 12932.94, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.13, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T04:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0012273140145705463, "return_30m": -0.0018183481562171755, "return_60m": -0.0010782934676861755, "return_120m": -0.0018491597229054468, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0007396934075410977, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0011460644603884518, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0016581647551030532, "ema3_slope": -0.0007391466656252454, "ema6_slope": -0.0004582157262518205, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00031777679853511875, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007383412958003633, "return_acceleration": -0.0006355535970702375 } }, { "id": 150, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20260930T2345Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-09-30T23:46:24.680516Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP302000", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP302000-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26SEP302000-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-09-30T23:45:00Z", "strike": 83574.27, "brti_reference_price": 83574.26816666668, "yes_ask": 0.35, "no_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 1643.65, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.35, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1643.65, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 273, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-09-30T23:46:24.852135Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.171619, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 45.55977083332982, "small_mean_absolute_error": 121.6080312500053 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.625, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 48.755736979164794, "small_mean_absolute_error": 98.4112656249963 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 43.36956944444197, "small_mean_absolute_error": 89.89299652777602 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 67.5603031249957, "small_mean_absolute_error": 97.08939166666315 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T23:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.004781682348010574, "return_12h": -0.004048826730743027, "return_24h": -0.0005866764036625005, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0026163287616050024, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0021183427448502323, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0009241707520499798, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0002503715548730634, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-29T20:01:10.643326Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP302000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T00:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T00:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83574.27, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T00:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T00:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "139530.55", "open_time": "2026-09-30T23:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on Sep 30, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP302000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T23:45:00.543145Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "233525.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7804.27", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7485.37", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,574.27" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-29T20:01:10.643326Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP302000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T00:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T00:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83574.27, "last_price_dollars": "0.3500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T00:00:00Z", "liquidity_dollars": "0.0000", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T00:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "152744.24", "open_time": "2026-09-30T23:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on Sep 30, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26SEP302000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-09-30T23:45:00.543145Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "269287.71", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1643.65", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "11393.49", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,574.27" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.34, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 1643.65, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.66, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 273, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 95.55, "trading_fee": 4.35, "total_deployed": 99.89999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.55, "net_pnl": -99.89999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 35.0, "trading_fee": 1.6, "total_deployed": 36.6, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -35.0, "net_pnl": -36.6, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-09-30T23:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0005778880857306712, "return_30m": -0.0010571018072208505, "return_60m": -0.002246402849404694, "return_120m": -0.0012662250671856556, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004544632201196608, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0008231634262672038, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0012322422998878313, "ema3_slope": -0.0004542567771219641, "ema6_slope": -0.00032915699050839464, "realized_volatility_30m": 4.919863610608477e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005918928240154794, "return_acceleration": -9.839727221216954e-05 } }, { "id": 151, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261001T1545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-01T15:46:26.981849Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011200-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-01T15:45:00Z", "strike": 83816.31, "brti_reference_price": 83816.3055, "yes_ask": 0.78, "no_ask": 0.23, "yes_ask_size": 5467.47, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.23, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 412, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-01T15:46:27.243694Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.261845, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 171.90770312499808, "small_mean_absolute_error": 209.98387499999808 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 177.13218229166887, "small_mean_absolute_error": 196.78647916666887 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 188.319656250004, "small_mean_absolute_error": 195.86072743055652 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 137.71701354166652, "small_mean_absolute_error": 138.71320208333273 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T15:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0003541214568374418, "return_12h": 0.0018232285196879694, "return_24h": -0.0031205375563546633, "close_vs_ema12": 4.347227205103721e-06, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0004321588103164409, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0004105427522722582, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0005615926075466238, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:00.218263Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83816.31, "last_price_dollars": "0.7300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "80980.27", "open_time": "2026-10-01T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T15:45:00.61419Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "157621.19", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4105.18", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7767.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,816.31" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:00.218263Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83816.31, "last_price_dollars": "0.7700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "117438.79", "open_time": "2026-10-01T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T15:45:00.61419Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "215413.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5467.47", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5085.22", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,816.31" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.77, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.78, "yes_ask_size": 5467.47, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.23, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T15:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0032488045103136187, "return_30m": -0.002394849856395709, "return_60m": -0.002041632383073533, "return_120m": -0.0008561144352694505, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0013445178129801727, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0014672826719998033, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0010545689812624381, "ema3_slope": -0.0013427125120897276, "ema6_slope": -0.0005865688039031758, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0020527712693010347, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0016167781796531037, "return_acceleration": -0.004105542538602069 } }, { "id": 152, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261001T1630Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:31:19.117191Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011245-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:30:00Z", "strike": 84249.36, "brti_reference_price": 84249.36, "yes_ask": 0.67, "no_ask": 0.34, "yes_ask_size": 4536.41, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.67, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4536.41, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 145, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:31:19.293678Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.176487, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-01T16:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 177.19394270832709, "small_mean_absolute_error": 189.12363020832709 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 149.767192708332, "small_mean_absolute_error": 173.096294270832 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 185.19110937499985, "small_mean_absolute_error": 178.65595312499985 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 144.18156562500008, "small_mean_absolute_error": 145.78048854166627 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.00723300010013439, "return_12h": 0.005295853269872142, "return_24h": -0.00012912772726847432, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004644852453044246, "close_vs_ema24": 0.005304215503536769, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0012419464676354242, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.000894026086502242, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:01.491028Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84249.36, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "204792.60", "open_time": "2026-10-01T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T16:30:00.66892Z", "volume_24h_fp": "227726.39", "volume_fp": "282864.32", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4646.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6600.63", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,249.36" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:01.491028Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84249.36, "last_price_dollars": "0.6700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "243589.05", "open_time": "2026-10-01T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T16:30:00.66892Z", "volume_24h_fp": "227726.39", "volume_fp": "341488.59", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4536.41", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4248.53", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,249.36" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.66, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.67, "yes_ask_size": 4536.41, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.34, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 145, "entry_price": 0.67, "gross_cost": 97.15, "trading_fee": 2.25, "total_deployed": 99.4, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 145.0, "gross_pnl": 47.849999999999994, "net_pnl": 45.599999999999994, "roi": 0.45875251509054316, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.67, "gross_cost": 67.0, "trading_fee": 1.55, "total_deployed": 68.55, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 33.0, "net_pnl": 31.450000000000003, "roi": 0.45878920495988335, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00026301873480183424, "return_30m": 0.0019525597249925308, "return_60m": 0.0019011193381812674, "return_120m": 0.0016725423051238142, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007850405521283577, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0016810353569380876, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0027341065964294753, "ema3_slope": 0.0007856573249886978, "ema6_slope": 0.0006728665877850926, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007130389956525596, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0023903097281270562, "return_acceleration": -0.0014260779913051191 } }, { "id": 153, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261001T1645Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:46:24.969272Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011300-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:45:00Z", "strike": 84287.16, "brti_reference_price": 84287.15716666666, "yes_ask": 0.57, "no_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 237.35, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.44, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 218, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:46:25.431021Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.461749, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 102.03421874999185, "small_mean_absolute_error": 103.35843749999185 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 136.97096093749497, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.67115624999497 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 152.09952777777653, "small_mean_absolute_error": 165.64379861110987 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 140.42356770833285, "small_mean_absolute_error": 144.40178749999905 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.005493827081823666, "return_12h": 0.005044084834066709, "return_24h": -0.00024995780166869874, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004886571959462849, "close_vs_ema24": 0.005635917953396907, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.001385624697898491, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.000988988561890114, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:01.908527Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84287.16, "last_price_dollars": "0.5900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "161667.92", "open_time": "2026-10-01T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T16:45:00.642687Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "228180.15", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6339.13", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2548.29", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,287.16" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:01.908527Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84287.16, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "168375.96", "open_time": "2026-10-01T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T16:45:00.642687Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "248379.29", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "237.35", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7796.20", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,287.16" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 237.35, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.44, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00044863446638232496, "return_30m": 0.0007117712004538479, "return_60m": 0.005617661907880933, "return_120m": 0.00356456032433905, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0006166331363439692, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0015208057209441517, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0026928074481669118, "ema3_slope": 0.0006170136073799792, "ema6_slope": 0.0006086925696344725, "realized_volatility_30m": 9.280786579024536e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011779042221996849, "return_acceleration": 0.00018561573158049072 } }, { "id": 154, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261001T1700Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:01:19.618692Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011315", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011315-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011315-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:00:00Z", "strike": 84142.82, "brti_reference_price": 84142.82033333332, "yes_ask": 0.6, "no_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 9221.48, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.6, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 9221.48, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 162, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:01:19.902749Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.284057, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-01T17:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.46610937499645, "small_mean_absolute_error": 109.18485937499645 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.72536979166398, "small_mean_absolute_error": 154.55251822916398 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 167.17678645833317, "small_mean_absolute_error": 174.7112916666665 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.44293333333408, "small_mean_absolute_error": 153.2328104166656 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0024554132074485757, "return_12h": 0.001282355680345848, "return_24h": -0.0016949557574613694, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0030361552948723336, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0038328757599284113, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0014527115281439684, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0010193336932713404, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T17:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:02.32755Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T17:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84142.82, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T17:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "165439.12", "open_time": "2026-10-01T17:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T17:00:00.784159Z", "volume_24h_fp": "180345.13", "volume_fp": "278061.08", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9216.33", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "350.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,142.82" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T17:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:02.32755Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T17:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84142.82, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T17:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "174981.71", "open_time": "2026-10-01T17:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T17:00:00.784159Z", "volume_24h_fp": "180345.13", "volume_fp": "299058.19", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9221.48", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2818.21", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,142.82" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.59, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 9221.48, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.41, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 162, "entry_price": 0.6, "gross_cost": 97.2, "trading_fee": 2.73, "total_deployed": 99.93, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 162.0, "gross_pnl": 64.8, "net_pnl": 62.06999999999999, "roi": 0.6211347943560491, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.6, "gross_cost": 60.0, "trading_fee": 1.68, "total_deployed": 61.68, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 40.0, "net_pnl": 38.32, "roi": 0.6212710765239948, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T16:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0017124415887930233, "return_30m": -0.0012645753827290607, "return_60m": 0.0006855151833020656, "return_120m": 0.0019363272865464687, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0005487331432636466, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0001387506708535602, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0008255145710573952, "ema3_slope": -0.0005484322003382891, "ema6_slope": -5.5497188232500605e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010805380275876741, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012183506876351953, "return_acceleration": -0.0021610760551753483 } }, { "id": 155, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261001T1715Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:16:18.929533Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011330", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011330-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011330-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:15:00Z", "strike": 84406.27, "brti_reference_price": 84406.2685, "yes_ask": 0.61, "no_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 5883.71, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.61, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5883.71, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 159, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:16:19.146198Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.216665, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-01T17:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 158.5928958333352, "small_mean_absolute_error": 172.8800052083352 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 177.22387499999786, "small_mean_absolute_error": 187.22680468749786 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 180.0050295138899, "small_mean_absolute_error": 192.1124513888899 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 162.06302291666725, "small_mean_absolute_error": 167.18688437499878 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.006726775135699858, "return_12h": 0.0026635330821853653, "return_24h": 0.0015818874314308395, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005923025281667771, "close_vs_ema24": 0.006831022502946205, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0017250667995174496, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.001137156414224183, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T17:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:02.71167Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T17:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84406.27, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T17:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "143515.80", "open_time": "2026-10-01T17:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T17:15:00.710025Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "238844.49", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4305.75", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5355.06", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,406.27" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T17:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:02.71167Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T17:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84406.27, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T17:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "146666.62", "open_time": "2026-10-01T17:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T17:15:00.710025Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "262993.30", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5883.71", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2772.44", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,406.27" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.6, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 5883.71, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.4, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 159, "entry_price": 0.61, "gross_cost": 96.99, "trading_fee": 2.65, "total_deployed": 99.64, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 159.0, "gross_pnl": 62.010000000000005, "net_pnl": 59.36, "roi": 0.5957446808510638, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.61, "gross_cost": 61.0, "trading_fee": 1.67, "total_deployed": 62.67, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 39.0, "net_pnl": 37.33, "roi": 0.5956598053295037, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0031309643012087385, "return_30m": 0.0014131611189331927, "return_60m": 0.0021259381667730892, "return_120m": 0.004627055054387652, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0012885939302762495, "close_vs_ema6": 0.002135160025722005, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0033479376478786627, "ema3_slope": 0.0012902565470314098, "ema6_slope": 0.0008547940591308034, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.002421702945000881, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0017227472996665925, "return_acceleration": 0.004843405890001762 } }, { "id": 156, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261001T1745Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:46:25.229942Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-01T18:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011400", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011400-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011400-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:45:00Z", "strike": 85003.43, "brti_reference_price": 85003.42566666668, "yes_ask": 0.52, "no_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 918.16, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.52, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 918.16, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 186, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:46:25.402361Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.172419, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-01T18:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 324.495916666674, "small_mean_absolute_error": 297.728338541674 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 213.26506770833294, "small_mean_absolute_error": 200.54338802083294 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 199.47927951388797, "small_mean_absolute_error": 203.69021701388797 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 198.29782083333558, "small_mean_absolute_error": 197.7337916666671 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.012807768607232761, "return_12h": 0.009813182863346759, "return_24h": 0.012236997611869915, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0120483447738009, "close_vs_ema24": 0.013410063685066254, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0024362749406505735, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.001609141419032456, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:03.501491Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T18:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T18:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85003.43, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T18:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T18:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "199311.21", "open_time": "2026-10-01T17:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T17:45:00.613659Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "282676.38", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9.88", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6816.52", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,003.43" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:03.501491Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T18:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T18:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85003.43, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T18:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T18:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "230127.04", "open_time": "2026-10-01T17:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T17:45:00.613659Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "334909.50", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "918.16", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8285.73", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,003.43" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.51, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 918.16, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.49, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 186, "entry_price": 0.52, "gross_cost": 96.72, "trading_fee": 3.25, "total_deployed": 99.97, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.72, "net_pnl": -99.97, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.52, "gross_cost": 52.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 53.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -52.0, "net_pnl": -53.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T17:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0015951625798766855, "return_30m": 0.007074796425418084, "return_60m": 0.008497955371584043, "return_120m": 0.014163355919650789, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.002480038410217489, "close_vs_ema6": 0.005013678525559895, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007667734784094327, "ema3_slope": 0.0024862042923581296, "ema6_slope": 0.0020095014078462814, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0019378721398820575, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0026083367869877104, "return_acceleration": -0.003875744279764115 } }, { "id": 157, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261001T1900Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-01T19:01:22.608197Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-01T19:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011515", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011515-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011515-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-01T19:00:00Z", "strike": 84778.66, "brti_reference_price": 84778.65800000001, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 3416.0, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3416.0, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-01T19:01:22.863866Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.255669, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-01T19:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 118.58020312499502, "small_mean_absolute_error": 158.5076770833366 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 195.8551796874981, "small_mean_absolute_error": 219.4962057291723 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 164.39215624999756, "small_mean_absolute_error": 182.725756944447 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 178.64814374999915, "small_mean_absolute_error": 192.62525729166882 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T18:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.012526979126607607, "return_12h": 0.008094513912082046, "return_24h": 0.010051221138056343, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0074640957098999205, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009588396947671773, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0038605710258736714, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002585701691180109, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:05.391048Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84778.66, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T19:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "104341.25", "open_time": "2026-10-01T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T19:00:00.780075Z", "volume_24h_fp": "100143.76", "volume_fp": "177267.87", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1868.67", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7101.43", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,778.66" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-01T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-09-30T20:01:05.391048Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-01T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-08T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84778.66, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T19:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-01T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "127361.99", "open_time": "2026-10-01T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Oct 1, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on October 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT011515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-01T19:00:00.780075Z", "volume_24h_fp": "100143.76", "volume_fp": "224616.68", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3416.00", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7524.11", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,778.66" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 3416.0, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.14, "net_pnl": -99.78, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -46.0, "net_pnl": -47.74, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-01T18:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0015908300731094505, "return_30m": 1.5430615244005352e-05, "return_60m": -0.0007040503839835788, "return_120m": 0.007556647901125757, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004996217591094476, "close_vs_ema6": -6.504312439581383e-05, "close_vs_ema12": 0.001787800006411544, "ema3_slope": -0.0004993722618615859, "ema6_slope": -2.6016572878706512e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0015998250603884157, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013015447709359108, "return_acceleration": -0.0031996501207768313 } }, { "id": 158, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261003T0245Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:46:25.563403Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022300-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:45:00Z", "strike": 84665.22, "brti_reference_price": 84665.2175, "yes_ask": 0.43, "no_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 573.44, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.43, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 573.44, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 223, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:46:25.748467Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.185064, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 41.26485416666401, "small_mean_absolute_error": 145.007041666664 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 38.09627604166599, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.38684635417303 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 46.50844965277793, "small_mean_absolute_error": 122.8893072916738 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 38.416072916665144, "small_mean_absolute_error": 107.42026666667007 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.005240642670603757, "return_12h": -0.014708067123455848, "return_24h": -0.0033402172507914774, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0014406298343897506, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0034356292502438768, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0013814721620966086, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0030305034987553325, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-01T20:01:26.720884Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T03:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T03:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84665.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T03:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T03:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "96171.07", "open_time": "2026-10-03T02:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on Oct 2, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on October 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T02:45:00.658532Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "178112.44", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "550.95", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5872.40", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,665.22" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T03:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-01T20:01:26.720884Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T03:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T03:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84665.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T03:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T03:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "103653.98", "open_time": "2026-10-03T02:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on Oct 2, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on October 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T02:45:00.658532Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "195212.73", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "573.44", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6110.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,665.22" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.42, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 573.44, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.58, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 223, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 95.89, "trading_fee": 3.83, "total_deployed": 99.72, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.89, "net_pnl": -99.72, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 43.0, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 44.72, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -43.0, "net_pnl": -44.72, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T02:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00027213775060563883, "return_30m": 0.000665063627638407, "return_60m": 0.0005154062137062709, "return_120m": 0.0006471973804291764, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0002116630727808655, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0003871377451201141, "close_vs_ema12": 0.000710741308290963, "ema3_slope": 0.00021170788352198322, "ema6_slope": 0.00015487908186351262, "realized_volatility_30m": 6.0340612777265434e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0002485671678637845, "return_acceleration": -0.00012068122555453087 } }, { "id": 159, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261003T0330Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:31:20.107455Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022345", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022345-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022345-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:30:00Z", "strike": 84578.63, "brti_reference_price": 84578.63066666666, "yes_ask": 0.61, "no_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 7729.77, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.61, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7729.77, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 159, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:31:20.280350Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.172895, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-03T03:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.52682291666497, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.62186979166654 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 46.6920729166668, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.76108072916759 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 47.680392361111444, "small_mean_absolute_error": 122.23456423611667 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 45.02097916666462, "small_mean_absolute_error": 104.11772291666784 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0018033047548198233, "return_12h": -0.010276989238353185, "return_24h": -0.007630925090309937, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0021494994545023793, "close_vs_ema24": -0.004173909422380162, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0011564866287140374, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.002770609254283296, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T03:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-01T20:01:27.85131Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T03:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T03:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84578.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T03:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T03:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "108521.83", "open_time": "2026-10-03T03:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on Oct 2, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 PM EDT on October 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T03:30:00.542247Z", "volume_24h_fp": "132620.96", "volume_fp": "215211.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5669.12", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4504.35", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,578.63" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T03:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-01T20:01:27.85131Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T03:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T03:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84578.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T03:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T03:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "116655.87", "open_time": "2026-10-03T03:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on Oct 2, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 PM EDT on October 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT022345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T03:30:00.542247Z", "volume_24h_fp": "132620.96", "volume_fp": "233756.34", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7729.77", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5363.84", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,578.63" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.6, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 7729.77, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.4, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 159, "entry_price": 0.61, "gross_cost": 96.99, "trading_fee": 2.65, "total_deployed": 99.64, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 159.0, "gross_pnl": 62.010000000000005, "net_pnl": 59.36, "roi": 0.5957446808510638, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.61, "gross_cost": 61.0, "trading_fee": 1.67, "total_deployed": 62.67, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 39.0, "net_pnl": 37.33, "roi": 0.5956598053295037, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0007216304179780142, "return_30m": -0.00011878855191083115, "return_60m": -0.0007508372022360099, "return_120m": -0.0003035936527558958, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 6.394267940468268e-05, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00010205188586220881, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00010869230729537716, "ema3_slope": 6.394676833254564e-05, "ema6_slope": -4.081908807895829e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007807216766536618, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00070297431794877, "return_acceleration": 0.0015614433533073235 } }, { "id": 160, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261003T0345Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:46:25.530176Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030000", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030000-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030000-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:45:00Z", "strike": 84634.81, "brti_reference_price": 84634.80966666668, "yes_ask": 0.56, "no_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 1168.28, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.56, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1168.28, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 173, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:46:25.729005Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.198829, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 65.18267708333588, "small_mean_absolute_error": 95.99061458333745 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 53.22376562499994, "small_mean_absolute_error": 120.49882812500073 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 47.12507638888928, "small_mean_absolute_error": 122.92143576389451 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 48.230131249999246, "small_mean_absolute_error": 109.70812500000247 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0015493745889847421, "return_12h": -0.008064176464140926, "return_24h": -0.008935547056346804, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001426109748545401, "close_vs_ema24": -0.003440276863516556, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0010977013065349706, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0026822123715489754, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-01T20:01:28.456376Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T04:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T04:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84634.81, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T04:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T04:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "156278.28", "open_time": "2026-10-03T03:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on Oct 3, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on October 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T03:45:00.555473Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "254130.58", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4355.94", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3239.85", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,634.81" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-01T20:01:28.456376Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T04:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T04:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84634.81, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T04:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T04:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "167667.96", "open_time": "2026-10-03T03:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on Oct 3, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on October 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T03:45:00.555473Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "281772.19", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1168.28", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7134.30", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,634.81" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 1168.28, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.45, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 173, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 96.88000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.99, "total_deployed": 99.87, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 173.0, "gross_pnl": 76.11999999999999, "net_pnl": 73.13, "roi": 0.7322519275057574, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 56.00000000000001, "trading_fee": 1.73, "total_deployed": 57.730000000000004, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 43.99999999999999, "net_pnl": 42.269999999999996, "roi": 0.7322016282695305, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T03:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0006642221511179436, "return_30m": 0.0013863318920044332, "return_60m": -0.00035915378512219043, "return_120m": 0.0001560673184914929, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00036397112811648036, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0004014373004082028, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00046996246456454394, "ema3_slope": 0.00036410365133354716, "ema6_slope": 0.00016060070860923759, "realized_volatility_30m": 2.8704133430035306e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007830125466757725, "return_acceleration": -5.740826686007061e-05 } }, { "id": 161, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261003T0415Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:16:19.127773Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030030-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:15:00Z", "strike": 84646.65, "brti_reference_price": 84646.65416666665, "yes_ask": 0.19, "no_ask": 0.82, "yes_ask_size": 4263.7, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.19, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4263.7, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 498, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:16:19.359393Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.23162, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-03T04:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 57.119348958345654, "small_mean_absolute_error": 147.15541666666832 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 60.256406250005966, "small_mean_absolute_error": 126.22333072916808 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 49.25756250000268, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.53557465278088 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 50.698586458333736, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.15840208333611 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0015560603842152965, "return_12h": -0.006403819106637121, "return_24h": -0.009411234406784819, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0011996787692837296, "close_vs_ema24": -0.003174743971885441, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.000986574347566882, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0025009008918466247, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-02T20:01:09.583913Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84646.65, "last_price_dollars": "0.2700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T04:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "118276.84", "open_time": "2026-10-03T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Oct 3, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on October 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T04:15:00.594636Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "193535.23", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4481.48", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4347.90", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,646.65" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-02T20:01:09.583913Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84646.65, "last_price_dollars": "0.1900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T04:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.8200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.8100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "139582.53", "open_time": "2026-10-03T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Oct 3, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on October 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T04:15:00.594636Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "231452.30", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.1900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4263.70", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.1800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "278.18", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,646.65" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.18, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.19, "yes_ask_size": 4263.7, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.82, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 498, "entry_price": 0.19, "gross_cost": 94.62, "trading_fee": 5.37, "total_deployed": 99.99000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -94.62, "net_pnl": -99.99000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.19, "gross_cost": 19.0, "trading_fee": 1.08, "total_deployed": 20.08, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -19.0, "net_pnl": -20.08, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T04:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00041107579016330664, "return_30m": 0.00013994832677721725, "return_60m": 0.0015264742336102977, "return_120m": 0.00044566208731677825, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 2.3118457166626527e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00019220574711864558, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00038307440719065333, "ema3_slope": 2.3118991641979392e-05, "ema6_slope": 7.688821018980718e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004811632564651336, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0004616850135131271, "return_acceleration": -0.0009623265129302672 } }, { "id": 162, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261003T1300Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:01:19.217814Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030915", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030915-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030915-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "strike": 84872.72, "brti_reference_price": 84872.72016666667, "yes_ask": 0.37, "no_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 2167.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.37, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 2167.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 258, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:01:19.399586Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.181772, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-03T13:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 106.92566666666244, "small_mean_absolute_error": 197.4376041666692 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 74.21485677083547, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.73645052083884 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 53.58243749999989, "small_mean_absolute_error": 144.09459548611267 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 43.41609062500065, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.62386250000128 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.003703088818445055, "return_12h": 0.0027093550581926973, "return_24h": -0.022455897851393458, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002397401385958675, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0012074562692647728, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00017365415586034771, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0009374556705279424, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T13:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-02T20:01:20.856944Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T13:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T13:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84872.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T13:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T13:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "84158.90", "open_time": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on Oct 3, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on October 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T13:00:00.738574Z", "volume_24h_fp": "118851.78", "volume_fp": "140137.21", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4305.16", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6231.92", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,872.72" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T13:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-02T20:01:20.856944Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030915", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T13:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T13:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84872.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.3600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T13:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T13:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "90996.99", "open_time": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on Oct 3, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on October 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030915-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T13:00:00.738574Z", "volume_24h_fp": "118851.78", "volume_fp": "152374.19", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2167.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5728.20", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,872.72" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.36, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 2167.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.64, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 258, "entry_price": 0.37, "gross_cost": 95.46, "trading_fee": 4.21, "total_deployed": 99.66999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.46, "net_pnl": -99.66999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.37, "gross_cost": 37.0, "trading_fee": 1.64, "total_deployed": 38.64, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -37.0, "net_pnl": -38.64, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T12:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0008320031343851397, "return_30m": 0.00030266229616904283, "return_60m": 0.002557765332287465, "return_120m": 0.0029059984348653867, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0005558337457203244, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00118721787013909, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0018816516308106657, "ema3_slope": 0.0005561428686939873, "ema6_slope": 0.0004751127730053817, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0006804519627426897, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009167139729697669, "return_acceleration": 0.0013609039254853794 } }, { "id": 163, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261003T1315Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:16:20.301138Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030930", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030930-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030930-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:15:00Z", "strike": 84846.15, "brti_reference_price": 84846.145, "yes_ask": 0.39, "no_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 6912.89, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.39, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6912.89, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 245, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:16:20.484402Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183264, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-03T13:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.65200520833241, "small_mean_absolute_error": 159.32995833333916 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.57413802083647, "small_mean_absolute_error": 151.18459895833985 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 53.2968524305555, "small_mean_absolute_error": 138.2324722222244 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 41.31003854166702, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.39906041666762 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0029283706568972168, "return_12h": 0.002503856802246851, "return_24h": -0.021373305357166084, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0019983207347746834, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0008755700198805894, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0002972881704388364, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0008579418157323992, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T13:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-02T20:01:21.108989Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T13:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T13:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84846.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T13:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T13:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "83361.05", "open_time": "2026-10-03T13:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 AM EDT on Oct 3, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on October 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T13:15:00.62977Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "128909.89", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "819.48", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5903.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,846.15" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-03T13:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-02T20:01:21.108989Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-03T13:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-10T13:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84846.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T13:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-03T13:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "86933.20", "open_time": "2026-10-03T13:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 AM EDT on Oct 3, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 AM EDT on October 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT030930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-03T13:15:00.62977Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "135510.35", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6912.89", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "282.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,846.15" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.38, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 6912.89, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.62, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 245, "entry_price": 0.39, "gross_cost": 95.55, "trading_fee": 4.08, "total_deployed": 99.63, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.55, "net_pnl": -99.63, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.39, "gross_cost": 39.0, "trading_fee": 1.67, "total_deployed": 40.67, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -39.0, "net_pnl": -40.67, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-03T13:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0003131178853991168, "return_30m": 0.0005186247339239447, "return_60m": 0.0019777786777377404, "return_120m": 0.0026533469176484026, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00012125620456671093, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0006239358467441392, "close_vs_ema12": 0.001326402367859858, "ema3_slope": 0.0001212709094169373, "ema6_slope": 0.00024963664159738386, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005725605098921283, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010056207074957352, "return_acceleration": -0.0011451210197842565 } }, { "id": 164, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261004T2100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:01:16.940918Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041715", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041715-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041715-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "strike": 85817.53, "brti_reference_price": 85817.52783333334, "yes_ask": 0.34, "no_ask": 0.67, "yes_ask_size": 4859.66, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.34, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4859.66, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 281, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:01:17.130470Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.189552, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-04T21:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 128.12071354166255, "small_mean_absolute_error": 181.99376041666255 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 103.37348697916423, "small_mean_absolute_error": 140.59028385416423 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.32265104166193, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.27838541666279 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.6794656249971, "small_mean_absolute_error": 80.82677916666435 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.006467504272874791, "return_12h": 0.008500431452289625, "return_24h": 0.012724214133797762, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006087075743647752, "close_vs_ema24": 0.007757331406845092, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0012778059635936145, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.001823743882152451, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:16.199241Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85817.53, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T21:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "170395.33", "open_time": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T21:00:01.019548Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "294770.33", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5020.26", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4178.47", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,817.53" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:16.199241Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85817.53, "last_price_dollars": "0.3400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T21:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "176128.38", "open_time": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T21:00:01.019548Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "328314.86", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4859.66", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3304.04", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,817.53" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.33, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.34, "yes_ask_size": 4859.66, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.67, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 281, "entry_price": 0.34, "gross_cost": 95.54, "trading_fee": 4.42, "total_deployed": 99.96000000000001, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 281.0, "gross_pnl": 185.45999999999998, "net_pnl": 181.04, "roi": 1.8111244497799117, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.34, "gross_cost": 34.0, "trading_fee": 1.58, "total_deployed": 35.58, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 66.0, "net_pnl": 64.42, "roi": 1.810567734682406, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T20:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0008770444550252332, "return_30m": 0.004272133515885512, "return_60m": 0.004714920387639543, "return_120m": 0.005740116705310827, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0013409093225695834, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0025822042857777117, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0037406344633663657, "ema3_slope": 0.001342709774623696, "ema6_slope": 0.001033949662010425, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0012575347855189323, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001314656916100605, "return_acceleration": -0.0025150695710378645 } }, { "id": 165, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261004T2115Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:16:16.635972Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041730", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041730-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041730-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:15:00Z", "strike": 86008.37, "brti_reference_price": 86008.36799999999, "yes_ask": 0.37, "no_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 8287.05, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.37, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8287.05, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 258, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:16:16.861964Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.225992, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-04T21:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 186.57222395833014, "small_mean_absolute_error": 246.82808333333014 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 125.8347864583302, "small_mean_absolute_error": 170.4920130208302 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.29440104166133, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.75859374999466 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.30940624999639, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.79652916666382 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.008060978192482082, "return_12h": 0.01041557215629485, "return_24h": 0.01580224882760195, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007981918650811215, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009790214942008602, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.001562124221561989, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0019528272711744066, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T21:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:16.916766Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T21:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T21:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86008.37, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T21:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T21:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "174122.06", "open_time": "2026-10-04T21:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T21:15:00.851018Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "306152.79", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4591.34", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4832.48", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,008.37" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T21:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:16.916766Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T21:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T21:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86008.37, "last_price_dollars": "0.3600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T21:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T21:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "187507.58", "open_time": "2026-10-04T21:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T21:15:00.851018Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "337563.18", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8287.05", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1374.05", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,008.37" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.36, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 8287.05, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.64, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 258, "entry_price": 0.37, "gross_cost": 95.46, "trading_fee": 4.21, "total_deployed": 99.66999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.46, "net_pnl": -99.66999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.37, "gross_cost": 37.0, "trading_fee": 1.64, "total_deployed": 38.64, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -37.0, "net_pnl": -38.64, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.002223790075114751, "return_30m": 0.0031027848928943946, "return_60m": 0.006936758287741318, "return_120m": 0.007459616098594912, "consecutive_up_closes": 5, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0017806642280311369, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0034322361675311885, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005049219752609746, "ema3_slope": 0.0017838406492636238, "ema6_slope": 0.0013747818974727544, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0006733728100447589, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001164878267270692, "return_acceleration": 0.0013467456200895178 } }, { "id": 166, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261004T2145Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:46:18.316103Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041800", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041800-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041800-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:45:00Z", "strike": 85964.27, "brti_reference_price": 85964.26783333333, "yes_ask": 0.66, "no_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 5685.12, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.66, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5685.12, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 147, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:46:18.538082Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.221979, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 191.30727604165804, "small_mean_absolute_error": 181.17446354165804 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.32466666665823, "small_mean_absolute_error": 167.31978385415823 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 122.48210069443788, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.80501736110455 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 87.3351291666615, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.79276979166097 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.007440548660011093, "return_12h": 0.008171619272358654, "return_24h": 0.015052753023669263, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0069341808934837434, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00892702674951451, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0019680572571629806, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0021447914997243522, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:18.389855Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T22:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T22:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85964.27, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T22:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T22:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "140620.86", "open_time": "2026-10-04T21:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T21:45:00.823352Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "232766.57", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5088.11", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3922.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,964.27" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:18.389855Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T22:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T22:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85964.27, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T22:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T22:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "148789.89", "open_time": "2026-10-04T21:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T21:45:00.823352Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "249081.23", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5685.12", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3046.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,964.27" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.65, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 5685.12, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.35, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 147, "entry_price": 0.66, "gross_cost": 97.02000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.31, "total_deployed": 99.33000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -97.02000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.33000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.66, "gross_cost": 66.0, "trading_fee": 1.58, "total_deployed": 67.58, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -66.0, "net_pnl": -67.58, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0017705477525393754, "return_30m": -0.0005127427445973387, "return_60m": 0.0025884512178551145, "return_120m": 0.006395922115097763, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007587812212723755, "close_vs_ema6": 0.001848416742747716, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003473607579160154, "ema3_slope": 0.0007593574074131748, "ema6_slope": 0.0007399137646955101, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0020249013599580312, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0017581603183383443, "return_acceleration": 0.0040498027199160624 } }, { "id": 167, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261004T2200Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:01:16.880001Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041815", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041815-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041815-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "strike": 85831.75, "brti_reference_price": 85831.74949999999, "yes_ask": 0.83, "no_ask": 0.18, "yes_ask_size": 7375.3, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.83, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7375.3, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 119, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-04T22:01:17.082266Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.202265, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-04T22:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 176.61098958332514, "small_mean_absolute_error": 142.04042708332054 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 152.36585156249384, "small_mean_absolute_error": 162.01709374999155 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.78598784721787, "small_mean_absolute_error": 141.07366493054965 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 87.91844166666196, "small_mean_absolute_error": 99.05259479166052 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.006528664740525825, "return_12h": 0.007128837818366263, "return_24h": 0.013282364093158971, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00516113536871643, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00721869895355054, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.002129044620538645, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0022354943424924834, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T22:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:18.95627Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T22:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T22:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85831.75, "last_price_dollars": "0.8300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T22:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.1800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.1700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T22:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "155090.61", "open_time": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T22:00:01.013449Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "243307.98", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.8300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6017.84", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.8200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2129.88", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,831.75" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T22:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:18.95627Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T22:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T22:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85831.75, "last_price_dollars": "0.8200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T22:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.1800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.1700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T22:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "165329.81", "open_time": "2026-10-04T22:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T22:00:01.013449Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "258654.34", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.8300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7375.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.8200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2116.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,831.75" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.82, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.83, "yes_ask_size": 7375.3, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.18, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 119, "entry_price": 0.83, "gross_cost": 98.77, "trading_fee": 1.18, "total_deployed": 99.95, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 119.0, "gross_pnl": 20.230000000000004, "net_pnl": 19.049999999999997, "roi": 0.19059529764882438, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.83, "gross_cost": 83.0, "trading_fee": 0.99, "total_deployed": 83.99, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 17.0, "net_pnl": 16.010000000000005, "roi": 0.1906179307060365, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T21:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.001541551352362669, "return_30m": 0.0002262670098942543, "return_60m": 0.00016571983632851506, "return_120m": 0.00488142157980298, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00039212361631491, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0002171353971465173, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0016298027706824758, "ema3_slope": -0.0003919699156539336, "ema6_slope": 8.68617031588581e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0016560495524510221, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0019776208638427, "return_acceleration": -0.0033120991049020443 } }, { "id": 168, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261004T2315Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:16:15.831456Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041930", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041930-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041930-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:15:00Z", "strike": 86577.85, "brti_reference_price": 86577.8515, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 5670.63, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.47, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5670.63, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 205, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:16:16.026400Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.194944, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-04T23:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 207.48180729167143, "small_mean_absolute_error": 186.8972916666644 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 192.04639843749828, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.46885937499246 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 170.73783680555303, "small_mean_absolute_error": 170.31049305554916 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.81214999999648, "small_mean_absolute_error": 126.55457499999466 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.014878141258206412, "return_12h": 0.015553239356720594, "return_24h": 0.021498450939623215, "close_vs_ema12": 0.011661358953991341, "close_vs_ema24": 0.014589610355187022, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0038925954204769297, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0032829010207147125, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T23:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:22.031943Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T23:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T23:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86577.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T23:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T23:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "144306.11", "open_time": "2026-10-04T23:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T23:15:00.819131Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "240995.66", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6023.84", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2633.87", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,577.85" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T23:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:22.031943Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041930", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T23:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T23:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86577.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T23:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T23:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "147174.19", "open_time": "2026-10-04T23:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041930-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T23:15:00.819131Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "248890.49", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5670.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5041.58", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,577.85" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 5670.63, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 205, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 96.35, "trading_fee": 3.58, "total_deployed": 99.92999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 205.0, "gross_pnl": 108.65, "net_pnl": 105.07000000000001, "roi": 1.0514360052036427, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 47.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 48.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 53.0, "net_pnl": 51.25, "roi": 1.0512820512820513, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.002003820115736188, "return_30m": 0.002267138685465797, "return_60m": 0.003034596718502147, "return_120m": 0.006621256899096428, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0013608084486753658, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0029882335957309714, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0055513119513745934, "ema3_slope": 0.0013626627716880613, "ema6_slope": 0.0011967238744869935, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008705140669330591, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009865022279434124, "return_acceleration": 0.0017410281338661182 } }, { "id": 169, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261004T2330Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:31:18.760931Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041945", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041945-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041945-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:30:00Z", "strike": 86697.4, "brti_reference_price": 86697.40466666665, "yes_ask": 0.51, "no_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 4083.03, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.51, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4083.03, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 189, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:31:18.957899Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.196968, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-04T23:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.11336458333244, "small_mean_absolute_error": 95.5015052083254 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 186.84688020833164, "small_mean_absolute_error": 143.20977083332582 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 186.75532812499782, "small_mean_absolute_error": 177.74920833332726 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 131.31539270832945, "small_mean_absolute_error": 133.93906458332714 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.015545134767478652, "return_12h": 0.01631224513209828, "return_24h": 0.023172886557648376, "close_vs_ema12": 0.012518670854677616, "close_vs_ema24": 0.015655725767576234, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004329361718223179, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.003536626374981644, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T23:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:22.322264Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041945", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T23:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T23:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86697.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T23:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T23:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "142618.20", "open_time": "2026-10-04T23:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041945-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T23:30:00.840622Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "239750.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5393.99", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7398.53", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,697.40" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-04T23:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-03T20:04:22.322264Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041945", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-04T23:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-11T23:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86697.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T23:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-04T23:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "155244.83", "open_time": "2026-10-04T23:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 PM EDT on Oct 4, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 PM EDT on October 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT041945-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-04T23:30:00.840622Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "258163.29", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4083.03", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9707.85", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,697.40" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.5, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 4083.03, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.5, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 189, "entry_price": 0.51, "gross_cost": 96.39, "trading_fee": 3.31, "total_deployed": 99.7, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.39, "net_pnl": -99.7, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.51, "gross_cost": 51.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 52.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -51.0, "net_pnl": -52.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-04T23:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0013808747225223517, "return_30m": 0.003387461862804919, "return_60m": 0.0049917747210384, "return_120m": 0.010314038037709805, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0013699019329600493, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0031198408400070488, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005865919885156723, "ema3_slope": 0.0013717811385933754, "ema6_slope": 0.0012494956269972768, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0003114726966069181, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006259465030843195, "return_acceleration": -0.0006229453932138362 } }, { "id": 170, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T0530Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:31:16.049334Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050145", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050145-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050145-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:30:00Z", "strike": 85501.39, "brti_reference_price": 85501.39266666668, "yes_ask": 0.4, "no_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 8819.26, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.4, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8819.26, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 239, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:31:16.213576Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.164242, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T05:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.89631770832784, "small_mean_absolute_error": 153.98444270832988 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 167.75533593749424, "small_mean_absolute_error": 155.42928124999526 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 144.07492881944077, "small_mean_absolute_error": 170.61353993055067 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 144.2358197916641, "small_mean_absolute_error": 168.10412812499635 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.013795245712353132, "return_12h": 0.0015354401013765173, "return_24h": 0.007706517301352855, "close_vs_ema12": -0.005620195597837885, "close_vs_ema24": -0.002426915548417674, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00024384293577361937, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.004081206922669001, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T05:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:48.252579Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T05:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85501.39, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T05:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "144512.60", "open_time": "2026-10-05T05:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T05:30:00.799721Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "245163.08", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10.10", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6319.76", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,501.39" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T05:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:48.252579Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T05:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85501.39, "last_price_dollars": "0.4000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T05:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "151902.80", "open_time": "2026-10-05T05:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T05:30:00.799721Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "261249.70", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8819.26", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5255.94", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,501.39" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.39, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 8819.26, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.61, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 239, "entry_price": 0.4, "gross_cost": 95.60000000000001, "trading_fee": 4.02, "total_deployed": 99.62, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 239.0, "gross_pnl": 143.39999999999998, "net_pnl": 139.38, "roi": 1.3991166432443283, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.4, "gross_cost": 40.0, "trading_fee": 1.68, "total_deployed": 41.68, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 60.0, "net_pnl": 58.32, "roi": 1.399232245681382, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0001442036283516579, "return_30m": -1.9087044070831283e-05, "return_60m": -0.002963457244901657, "return_120m": -0.010781067007420653, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0003213932966037447, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0018444483829778147, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00456922801125037, "ema3_slope": -0.00032129003614012053, "ema6_slope": -0.0007372354361078193, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0001537353785308615, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008709701218714891, "return_acceleration": 0.000307470757061723 } }, { "id": 171, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T0545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:46:18.661195Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050200-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:45:00Z", "strike": 85720.37, "brti_reference_price": 85720.36583333333, "yes_ask": 0.48, "no_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 11259.29, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.48, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 11259.29, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 201, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:46:18.879176Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.217981, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 132.52365104166165, "small_mean_absolute_error": 210.6293541666637 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 170.87456770832978, "small_mean_absolute_error": 195.6530052083308 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 161.01628298610618, "small_mean_absolute_error": 199.88159548610687 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 142.1323885416641, "small_mean_absolute_error": 167.09639999999635 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.008850122025750418, "return_12h": 0.0039168811744518806, "return_24h": 0.009613330168326328, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002948460458802704, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00012528486976015607, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0006800413226144553, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0038111455485718704, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:48.616373Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85720.37, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "120193.07", "open_time": "2026-10-05T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T05:45:00.810438Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "198022.60", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7854.23", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6117.60", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,720.37" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:48.616373Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85720.37, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "125386.92", "open_time": "2026-10-05T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T05:45:00.810438Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "208241.19", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "11259.29", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "121.40", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,720.37" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.47, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 11259.29, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.53, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 201, "entry_price": 0.48, "gross_cost": 96.47999999999999, "trading_fee": 3.52, "total_deployed": 99.99999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 201.0, "gross_pnl": 104.52000000000001, "net_pnl": 101.00000000000001, "roi": 1.0100000000000002, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.48, "gross_cost": 48.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 49.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 52.0, "net_pnl": 50.25, "roi": 1.0100502512562815, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0025610479529887265, "return_30m": 0.0027056208937474846, "return_60m": 0.0017167687294681322, "return_120m": -0.00606976642729562, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0011181640858519692, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0005083793486164723, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0017096622619746649, "ema3_slope": 0.0011194157763700918, "ema6_slope": 0.00020339309978711917, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0012084221623185343, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012791743223194772, "return_acceleration": 0.0024168443246370686 } }, { "id": 172, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T0600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:01:17.336856Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050215-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "strike": 85724.84, "brti_reference_price": 85724.8395, "yes_ask": 0.69, "no_ask": 0.32, "yes_ask_size": 6184.96, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.69, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6184.96, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 141, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:01:17.502046Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.16519, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 112.34516145833186, "small_mean_absolute_error": 205.7750833333339 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 146.35907291666263, "small_mean_absolute_error": 186.66192447916364 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 158.5687986111067, "small_mean_absolute_error": 191.1951788194407 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 141.85811041666383, "small_mean_absolute_error": 170.93462187499608 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.009029298423951393, "return_12h": 0.004891746375984551, "return_24h": 0.009722109918878674, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0027785323044733357, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00017377201323887093, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0010224170947104039, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0035429568469482753, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:49.000264Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85724.84, "last_price_dollars": "0.7200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "116779.30", "open_time": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T06:00:00.91794Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "240664.31", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "19.66", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5383.68", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,724.84" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:49.000264Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85724.84, "last_price_dollars": "0.6800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "133264.04", "open_time": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T06:00:00.91794Z", "volume_24h_fp": "213299.02", "volume_fp": "268012.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6184.96", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4275.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,724.84" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.68, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.69, "yes_ask_size": 6184.96, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.32, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 141, "entry_price": 0.69, "gross_cost": 97.28999999999999, "trading_fee": 2.12, "total_deployed": 99.41, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 141.0, "gross_pnl": 43.71000000000001, "net_pnl": 41.59, "roi": 0.4183683734030782, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.69, "gross_cost": 69.0, "trading_fee": 1.5, "total_deployed": 70.5, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 31.0, "net_pnl": 29.5, "roi": 0.41843971631205673, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T05:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 5.218907576032272e-05, "return_30m": 0.00261337068747447, "return_60m": 0.002594233761882281, "return_120m": -0.003725071860737117, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0005848634932967833, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0004003608429410388, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0014029105657404894, "ema3_slope": 0.0005852057587811821, "ema6_slope": 0.00016016998749290856, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0012544294386142019, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011098093400481888, "return_acceleration": -0.0025088588772284037 } }, { "id": 173, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T0615Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:16:15.932786Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050230", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050230-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050230-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "strike": 85884.15, "brti_reference_price": 85884.15016666664, "yes_ask": 0.65, "no_ask": 0.36, "yes_ask_size": 914.78, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.65, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 914.78, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 150, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:16:16.137523Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.204737, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T06:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 142.7660989583237, "small_mean_absolute_error": 241.5835260416643 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 160.0597213541605, "small_mean_absolute_error": 206.96999479166152 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 163.3807725694387, "small_mean_absolute_error": 191.75064236110606 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 151.21279895832922, "small_mean_absolute_error": 183.52893437499515 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0053306109081223685, "return_12h": 0.006778335902400512, "return_24h": 0.011549359497866174, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0008875664536148742, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0019905211847757176, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.001266151690170636, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00335804491894387, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T06:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:49.422736Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T06:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85884.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.6700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T06:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "125062.54", "open_time": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T06:15:00.797371Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "182180.96", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6166.49", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "204.37", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,884.15" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T06:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:49.422736Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T06:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85884.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T06:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "126829.23", "open_time": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T06:15:00.797371Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "191728.80", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "914.78", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6229.14", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,884.15" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.64, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.65, "yes_ask_size": 914.78, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.36, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 150, "entry_price": 0.65, "gross_cost": 97.5, "trading_fee": 2.39, "total_deployed": 99.89, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -97.5, "net_pnl": -99.89, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.65, "gross_cost": 65.0, "trading_fee": 1.6, "total_deployed": 66.6, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -65.0, "net_pnl": -66.6, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.001858395624836806, "return_30m": 0.0019106816885472444, "return_60m": 0.004621472162592566, "return_120m": -0.0007206571960181041, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0012206811294115383, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0016128876917147483, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00038317767640227984, "ema3_slope": 0.0012221730129455821, "ema6_slope": 0.0006455715704618559, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0009031032745382417, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001085084461754723, "return_acceleration": 0.0018062065490764834 } }, { "id": 174, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T0630Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:31:16.901865Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050245-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:30:00Z", "strike": 85876.79, "brti_reference_price": 85876.79183333334, "yes_ask": 0.51, "no_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 168.98, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.51, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 168.98, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 189, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:31:17.090867Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.189002, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 162.6833177083281, "small_mean_absolute_error": 221.2692552083281 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 141.78981770832797, "small_mean_absolute_error": 187.626848958329 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 166.06466319443885, "small_mean_absolute_error": 177.3759392361062 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 142.9439979166629, "small_mean_absolute_error": 176.21716458332884 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.004476491309614583, "return_12h": 0.006619282837768692, "return_24h": 0.011500301542511693, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0009334837827528197, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0018653268364443587, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0014780967069075723, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.003194958666745462, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T06:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:49.879763Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T06:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85876.79, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T06:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "85877.35", "open_time": "2026-10-05T06:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T06:30:00.816115Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "149114.81", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2378.17", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6884.99", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,876.79" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T06:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:49.879763Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T06:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85876.79, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T06:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "88264.49", "open_time": "2026-10-05T06:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T06:30:00.816115Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "152187.10", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "168.98", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "350.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,876.79" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.5, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 168.98, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.5, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -8.567743080678536e-05, "return_30m": 0.0017725589714674417, "return_60m": 0.004390562012599908, "return_120m": 0.0014140935248927455, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0005671277405057129, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0010902900658784631, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00025169167961047734, "ema3_slope": 0.0005674495568910309, "ema6_slope": 0.00043630630652424784, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0009720365278217957, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001141656081493344, "return_acceleration": -0.0019440730556435915 } }, { "id": 175, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T0645Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:46:19.599773Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050300-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:45:00Z", "strike": 85797.86, "brti_reference_price": 85797.86216666666, "yes_ask": 0.63, "no_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 7261.69, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.63, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7261.69, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 154, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:46:19.813698Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.213925, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.27866145833104, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.55795833333104 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.90115624999635, "small_mean_absolute_error": 167.09365624999737 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 151.00926562499686, "small_mean_absolute_error": 171.6213229166642 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 136.1751802083294, "small_mean_absolute_error": 173.31358124999534 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.009117892035268693, "return_12h": 0.005417320770600531, "return_24h": 0.00995092875767356, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0017762828540964781, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0009250160186882184, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0016291033735829075, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0029377587384176174, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:50.262958Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T07:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T07:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85797.86, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T07:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T07:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "82218.67", "open_time": "2026-10-05T06:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T06:45:00.796193Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "129256.97", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6316.13", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7101.97", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,797.86" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T07:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:50.262958Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T07:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T07:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85797.86, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T07:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T07:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "91298.54", "open_time": "2026-10-05T06:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T06:45:00.796193Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "144960.72", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7261.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5921.56", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,797.86" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.62, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 7261.69, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.38, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 154, "entry_price": 0.63, "gross_cost": 97.02, "trading_fee": 2.52, "total_deployed": 99.53999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 154.0, "gross_pnl": 56.980000000000004, "net_pnl": 54.46000000000001, "roi": 0.5471167369901548, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.63, "gross_cost": 63.0, "trading_fee": 1.64, "total_deployed": 64.64, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 37.0, "net_pnl": 35.36, "roi": 0.5470297029702971, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T06:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0009191035782969426, "return_30m": -0.001004702262670576, "return_60m": 0.0009040597596610134, "return_120m": 0.002622380550654002, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00017627961248833923, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00012155437386951462, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0005649869186840073, "ema3_slope": -0.00017624854346343088, "ema6_slope": 4.8624113737405494e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004167130737450786, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010128338864231917, "return_acceleration": -0.0008334261474901572 } }, { "id": 176, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T0745Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:46:19.091804Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050400", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050400-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050400-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:45:00Z", "strike": 86363.11, "brti_reference_price": 86363.11450000001, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 9125.01, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 9125.01, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:46:19.278047Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.186243, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 195.25698958333305, "small_mean_absolute_error": 250.16954687500038 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 153.26782552083205, "small_mean_absolute_error": 186.8637526041657 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 146.3531006944419, "small_mean_absolute_error": 194.78561979166503 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 157.91689999999653, "small_mean_absolute_error": 194.6744583333304 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0040196552331240865, "return_12h": 0.011065276824903103, "return_24h": 0.01652209226412449, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004245081400244377, "close_vs_ema24": 0.007011683091756371, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0005976656266714064, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002243827781155172, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:52.061541Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T08:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86363.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T08:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T08:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "70795.90", "open_time": "2026-10-05T07:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T07:45:00.796085Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "160768.83", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "13887.67", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1113.82", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,363.11" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T08:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:00:52.061541Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T08:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T08:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 86363.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T08:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T08:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "71322.42", "open_time": "2026-10-05T07:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 AM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT050400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T07:45:00.796085Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "162165.17", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9125.01", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3909.29", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $86,363.11" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 9125.01, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.14, "net_pnl": -99.78, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -46.0, "net_pnl": -47.74, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T07:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0019982856538982574, "return_30m": 0.0010798448338924516, "return_60m": 0.006588186687394693, "return_120m": 0.007498202561528666, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0011452409437266997, "close_vs_ema6": 0.002492863823662983, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0036264073736691493, "ema3_slope": 0.0011465540243396077, "ema6_slope": 0.000998140821122817, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001457447413471702, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002082997884462869, "return_acceleration": 0.002914894826943404 } }, { "id": 177, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T2200Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:01:17.045479Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051815", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051815-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051815-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "strike": 85952.42, "brti_reference_price": 85952.417, "yes_ask": 0.73, "no_ask": 0.28, "yes_ask_size": 7780.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.73, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7780.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 134, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:01:17.209675Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.164196, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T22:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 83.80442708333794, "small_mean_absolute_error": 85.71458333333794 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 65.41227604166488, "small_mean_absolute_error": 91.23813020833404 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 56.846956597219105, "small_mean_absolute_error": 73.20892187499946 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 65.1838260416669, "small_mean_absolute_error": 80.2905614583331 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.008276187786822042, "return_12h": 2.3951810167677223e-05, "return_24h": 0.0014058608930020977, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0023103748824739867, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002185865328941494, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00023000161529607155, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0011955107538601517, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T22:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:01:17.892198Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T22:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85952.42, "last_price_dollars": "0.7300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T22:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "151217.04", "open_time": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 PM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T22:00:00.791925Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "248838.58", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6882.43", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1813.22", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,952.42" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T22:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:01:17.892198Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T22:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85952.42, "last_price_dollars": "0.7300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T22:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "160503.21", "open_time": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 PM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T22:00:00.791925Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "269619.76", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7780.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5648.52", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,952.42" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.72, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.73, "yes_ask_size": 7780.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.28, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 134, "entry_price": 0.73, "gross_cost": 97.82, "trading_fee": 1.85, "total_deployed": 99.66999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 134.0, "gross_pnl": 36.18000000000001, "net_pnl": 34.33000000000001, "roi": 0.34443664091501974, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.73, "gross_cost": 73.0, "trading_fee": 1.38, "total_deployed": 74.38, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 27.0, "net_pnl": 25.620000000000005, "roi": 0.34444743210540474, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T21:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0004592477382681093, "return_30m": 0.0017100926696991259, "return_60m": 0.001873300802086142, "return_120m": 0.00259662502105229, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0006159088224351184, "close_vs_ema6": 0.001238297229416041, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002098274619776408, "ema3_slope": 0.0006162883998976909, "ema6_slope": 0.0004955643541530996, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00039551150457495243, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007205449304585895, "return_acceleration": -0.0007910230091499049 } }, { "id": 178, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T2215Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:16:16.060721Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051830", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051830-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051830-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:15:00Z", "strike": 85962.14, "brti_reference_price": 85962.14033333331, "yes_ask": 0.56, "no_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 5645.17, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.56, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5645.17, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 173, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:16:16.258902Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.198181, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T22:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 86.27078645832808, "small_mean_absolute_error": 106.42313020832808 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 69.6239687499965, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.15294791666565 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 59.70721180555241, "small_mean_absolute_error": 80.38102604166609 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.68608333333323, "small_mean_absolute_error": 86.08266249999943 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.008485956743744083, "return_12h": -0.0005171423746331838, "return_24h": -0.004098631827283761, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0023246018683973357, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002251903951094869, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00035298809127337627, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.000997208327343957, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T22:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:01:18.249397Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T22:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85962.14, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T22:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "164449.25", "open_time": "2026-10-05T22:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T22:15:00.685776Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "254381.25", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5274.83", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8377.82", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,962.14" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T22:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:01:18.249397Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T22:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85962.14, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T22:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "176146.43", "open_time": "2026-10-05T22:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T22:15:00.685776Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "279051.00", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5645.17", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9114.34", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,962.14" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 5645.17, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.45, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 173, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 96.88000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.99, "total_deployed": 99.87, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 173.0, "gross_pnl": 76.11999999999999, "net_pnl": 73.13, "roi": 0.7322519275057574, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 56.00000000000001, "trading_fee": 1.73, "total_deployed": 57.730000000000004, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 43.99999999999999, "net_pnl": 42.269999999999996, "roi": 0.7322016282695305, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00011312460629597787, "return_30m": 0.0005724242967837245, "return_60m": 0.002670361799350429, "return_120m": 0.0032987351596120984, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0003644187021838441, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0009650287136966362, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0018707482836515243, "ema3_slope": 0.000364551551586878, "ema6_slope": 0.00038616054788520593, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0001730615659860657, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0004248451725083776, "return_acceleration": -0.0003461231319721314 } }, { "id": 179, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T2230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:31:16.210143Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051845", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051845-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051845-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:30:00Z", "strike": 85978.33, "brti_reference_price": 85978.32616666665, "yes_ask": 0.35, "no_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 2055.82, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.35, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 2055.82, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 273, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:31:16.386850Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.176707, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T22:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 92.05504166665924, "small_mean_absolute_error": 129.86558854165924 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 67.20677864583013, "small_mean_absolute_error": 83.52774999999929 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 61.457506944439956, "small_mean_absolute_error": 85.47051388888697 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.4287124999988, "small_mean_absolute_error": 87.673729166665 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.009943669269766087, "return_12h": -0.0012391957225441619, "return_24h": -0.0033437455942149086, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0024104976527681288, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0023902089855785125, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.000456273149567199, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0007734622371100563, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T22:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:01:18.719505Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T22:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85978.33, "last_price_dollars": "0.3600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T22:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "180277.98", "open_time": "2026-10-05T22:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T22:30:00.684606Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "289801.67", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6467.82", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1840.91", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,978.33" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T22:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:01:18.719505Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T22:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85978.33, "last_price_dollars": "0.3400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T22:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T22:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "184253.45", "open_time": "2026-10-05T22:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T22:30:00.684606Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "297718.40", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2055.82", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7532.26", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,978.33" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.34, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 2055.82, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.66, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 273, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 95.55, "trading_fee": 4.35, "total_deployed": 99.89999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.55, "net_pnl": -99.89999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 35.0, "trading_fee": 1.6, "total_deployed": 36.6, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -35.0, "net_pnl": -36.6, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00018829025511202246, "return_30m": 0.00030143616166888876, "return_60m": 0.0020120443151385725, "return_120m": 0.002419584230707983, "consecutive_up_closes": 5, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00027631241723935496, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0008236575989093442, "close_vs_ema12": 0.001742009511548126, "ema3_slope": 0.000276388786893067, "ema6_slope": 0.0003295716212317057, "realized_volatility_30m": 3.75828244080223e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00045038111418540573, "return_acceleration": 7.51656488160446e-05 } }, { "id": 180, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261005T2245Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:46:19.274605Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051900", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051900-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051900-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:45:00Z", "strike": 85963.6, "brti_reference_price": 85963.59933333333, "yes_ask": 0.51, "no_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 7405.33, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.51, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7405.33, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 189, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:46:19.476309Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.201704, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 1.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.89414583332473, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.23984895832473 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 74.32057291666388, "small_mean_absolute_error": 94.37042968749847 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.99027777777398, "small_mean_absolute_error": 93.66198090277491 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.64916041666439, "small_mean_absolute_error": 92.1569645833326 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.009387667663013355, "return_12h": -0.0006095995187008763, "return_24h": -0.0048437418786743125, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0021472235747381774, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002172608928124653, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0005544557243613024, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0005656104766410541, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:01:19.108957Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T23:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T23:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85963.6, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T23:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T23:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "165676.08", "open_time": "2026-10-05T22:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T22:45:00.694424Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "259864.17", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2736.13", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7757.82", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,963.60" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-05T23:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-04T20:01:19.108957Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-05T23:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-12T23:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85963.6, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T23:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-05T23:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "183446.52", "open_time": "2026-10-05T22:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 PM EDT on Oct 5, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT051900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-05T22:45:00.694424Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "283084.65", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7405.33", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4765.36", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,963.60" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.5, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 7405.33, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.5, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 189, "entry_price": 0.51, "gross_cost": 96.39, "trading_fee": 3.31, "total_deployed": 99.7, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.39, "net_pnl": -99.7, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.51, "gross_cost": 51.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 52.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -51.0, "net_pnl": -52.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-05T22:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.000171285415638045, "return_30m": 1.6972588099406494e-05, "return_60m": 0.0005894066004048515, "return_120m": 0.0020475546114178123, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 5.2487081618535214e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00046579255784262585, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00132850078787361, "ema3_slope": 5.248983665717688e-05, "ema6_slope": 0.00018635174363912377, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00017978783537503373, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00022453073796714474, "return_acceleration": -0.00035957567075006747 } }, { "id": 181, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261006T1830Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:31:17.332092Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT061445", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT061445-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT061445-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:30:00Z", "strike": 85719.39, "brti_reference_price": 85719.393, "yes_ask": 0.26, "no_ask": 0.75, "yes_ask_size": 6603.97, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.26, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6603.97, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 365, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:31:17.515432Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.18334, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-06T18:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 81.82201562500268, "small_mean_absolute_error": 105.36303125000268 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 86.90197135416201, "small_mean_absolute_error": 82.37448697916443 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.54107638888672, "small_mean_absolute_error": 104.9428298611092 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.7, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 149.95535416666462, "small_mean_absolute_error": 155.2307864583323 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.005008459412901511, "return_12h": 0.005709662161386575, "return_24h": 0.001637296737535765, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0020881135755996816, "close_vs_ema24": -0.001628921093316582, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0014670086155346151, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00075561297751503, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-06T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-05T20:01:27.114636Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT061445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-13T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85719.39, "last_price_dollars": "0.2600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T18:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-06T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "129347.76", "open_time": "2026-10-06T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Oct 6, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on October 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT061445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-06T18:30:00.719418Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "224179.50", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8359.03", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1645.36", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,719.39" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-06T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-05T20:01:27.114636Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT061445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-06T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-13T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 85719.39, "last_price_dollars": "0.2500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T18:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-06T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "139650.31", "open_time": "2026-10-06T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Oct 6, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on October 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT061445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-06T18:30:00.719418Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "241132.72", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6603.97", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1339.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $85,719.39" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.25, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.26, "yes_ask_size": 6603.97, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.75, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 365, "entry_price": 0.26, "gross_cost": 94.9, "trading_fee": 4.92, "total_deployed": 99.82000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -94.9, "net_pnl": -99.82000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.26, "gross_cost": 26.0, "trading_fee": 1.35, "total_deployed": 27.35, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -26.0, "net_pnl": -27.35, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-06T18:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0005746192533876426, "return_30m": 0.0001404760838887853, "return_60m": 0.0010788339709626449, "return_120m": -0.0001300100697489981, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 4.79607748244959e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0001523303017485489, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0006360737316614129, "ema3_slope": 4.7963075171075786e-05, "ema6_slope": 6.093583364874533e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.000645062867232038, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008287139822374114, "return_acceleration": -0.001290125734464076 } }, { "id": 182, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261007T0930Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:31:17.071895Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070545", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070545-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070545-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:30:00Z", "strike": 83802.62, "brti_reference_price": 83802.61549999999, "yes_ask": 0.55, "no_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 4514.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:31:17.279728Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.207833, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 53.165468750012224, "small_mean_absolute_error": 59.870546875012224 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 69.29009635417606, "small_mean_absolute_error": 86.92558333333727 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.09636111111831, "small_mean_absolute_error": 103.78730902777777 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.55, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.65, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 65.47598125000586, "small_mean_absolute_error": 107.3133697916688 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0018435045548147455, "return_12h": -0.020557108857571893, "return_24h": -0.022548300187758552, "close_vs_ema12": -0.008356104731145675, "close_vs_ema24": -0.013344504149349401, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003402131720058099, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.006236928524140484, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-07T09:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-06T20:01:01.657177Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T09:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-14T09:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83802.62, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T09:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-07T09:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "73984.05", "open_time": "2026-10-07T09:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 AM EDT on Oct 7, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 AM EDT on October 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-07T09:30:00.67545Z", "volume_24h_fp": "87245.04", "volume_fp": "123171.18", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1876.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4984.73", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,802.62" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-07T09:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-06T20:01:01.657177Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T09:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-14T09:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83802.62, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T09:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-07T09:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "74399.59", "open_time": "2026-10-07T09:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 AM EDT on Oct 7, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 AM EDT on October 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-07T09:30:00.67545Z", "volume_24h_fp": "87245.04", "volume_fp": "126248.74", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4514.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7699.06", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,802.62" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.54, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 4514.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.46, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0013192839787620203, "return_30m": -0.0015579657584983142, "return_60m": -0.0025718184495043817, "return_120m": -0.004711845567912709, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 4, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0008400755031621188, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0016697608113468432, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002721753644716385, "ema3_slope": -0.0008393703686774279, "ema6_slope": -0.0006674585261028376, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005401434470004296, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0004108121826973348, "return_acceleration": -0.0010802868940008592 } }, { "id": 183, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261007T0945Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:46:18.448490Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070600", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070600-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070600-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:45:00Z", "strike": 83762.63, "brti_reference_price": 83762.62500000001, "yes_ask": 0.68, "no_ask": 0.33, "yes_ask_size": 6473.24, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.33, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 289, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:46:18.657286Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.208796, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 71.70386979167233, "small_mean_absolute_error": 70.74879166667233 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 79.58096354167537, "small_mean_absolute_error": 74.87367708333659 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.70249479167371, "small_mean_absolute_error": 92.3674010416665 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.65, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 70.26896979167068, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.39385833333363 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.004269879341048499, "return_12h": -0.021306816450221477, "return_24h": -0.02470501045591489, "close_vs_ema12": -0.008471988816576181, "close_vs_ema24": -0.013534429976652218, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003534076654027829, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.006197056394286915, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-06T20:01:01.943108Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T10:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-14T10:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83762.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T10:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-07T10:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "89056.33", "open_time": "2026-10-07T09:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 AM EDT on Oct 7, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 AM EDT on October 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-07T09:45:00.673806Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "139513.65", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7190.34", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2859.16", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,762.63" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-07T10:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-06T20:01:01.943108Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T10:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-14T10:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83762.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.6700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T10:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-07T10:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "94206.52", "open_time": "2026-10-07T09:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:00 AM EDT on Oct 7, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 AM EDT on October 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-07T09:45:00.673806Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "146590.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6473.24", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3306.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,762.63" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.67, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.68, "yes_ask_size": 6473.24, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.33, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-07T09:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00047719870986573376, "return_30m": -0.0017958531280151124, "return_60m": -0.002446676127908498, "return_120m": -0.006078430199915497, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 5, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0006588704895285069, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0015339139464818352, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002707038557895114, "ema3_slope": -0.0006584366650408402, "ema6_slope": -0.0006131893467165028, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00042104263444814327, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00041746739245286993, "return_acceleration": 0.0008420852688962865 } }, { "id": 184, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261007T1115Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:16:15.852719Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070730", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070730-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070730-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:15:00Z", "strike": 83796.16, "brti_reference_price": 83796.15666666666, "yes_ask": 0.41, "no_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 3248.27, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3248.27, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:16:16.024335Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.171616, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-07T11:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.15828124999825, "small_mean_absolute_error": 145.31453124999825 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.71634635416376, "small_mean_absolute_error": 104.17238281249774 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.55805555555828, "small_mean_absolute_error": 78.32805555555508 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.55, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.80522708333592, "small_mean_absolute_error": 105.40181979166519 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.004299725248186892, "return_12h": -0.019875281362841224, "return_24h": -0.027706427963242297, "close_vs_ema12": -0.006206480239030698, "close_vs_ema24": -0.011565163464046013, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0038391767182627268, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005953484966736755, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-07T11:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-06T20:01:05.388468Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T11:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-14T11:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83796.16, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T11:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-07T11:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "59117.91", "open_time": "2026-10-07T11:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on Oct 7, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on October 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-07T11:15:00.682615Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "94131.41", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5054.67", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3134.27", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,796.16" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-07T11:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-06T20:01:05.388468Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-07T11:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-14T11:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83796.16, "last_price_dollars": "0.4000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T11:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-07T11:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "62164.35", "open_time": "2026-10-07T11:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on Oct 7, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on October 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT070730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-07T11:15:00.682615Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "97336.59", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3248.27", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4954.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,796.16" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.4, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 3248.27, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.6, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 234, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 95.94, "trading_fee": 3.97, "total_deployed": 99.91, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.94, "net_pnl": -99.91, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 41.0, "trading_fee": 1.7, "total_deployed": 42.7, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -41.0, "net_pnl": -42.7, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-07T11:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0008626406342695514, "return_30m": 0.0019473205224134205, "return_60m": 4.2101953148465654e-05, "return_120m": -0.0013962542768786168, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0004209154385070857, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0002607343166827203, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0005593991278713961, "ema3_slope": 0.00042109268291867785, "ema6_slope": 0.00010430460498911387, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00011055218569766545, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0014971103834482613, "return_acceleration": -0.0002211043713953309 } }, { "id": 185, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T0415Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T04:16:17.815791Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T04:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT080030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT080030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT080030-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T04:15:00Z", "strike": 82615.12, "brti_reference_price": 82615.1185, "yes_ask": 0.69, "no_ask": 0.32, "yes_ask_size": 5504.59, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.32, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 298, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T04:16:18.027935Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.212144, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 156.74038020833905, "small_mean_absolute_error": 172.66811458333905 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 137.2183776041711, "small_mean_absolute_error": 143.8521666666711 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 114.36584027778129, "small_mean_absolute_error": 115.8510989583386 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.60061250000217, "small_mean_absolute_error": 97.74641666666794 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T04:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.006977614466039395, "return_12h": -0.010305516206404075, "return_24h": -0.01785875532954373, "close_vs_ema12": -0.007273792679045488, "close_vs_ema24": -0.011591823199312401, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.002015172601985471, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0037431456151385545, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:01.491617Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT080030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82615.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.6800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T04:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "161514.52", "open_time": "2026-10-08T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT080030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T04:15:00.719964Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "231817.04", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10363.52", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6273.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,615.12" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:01.491617Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT080030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82615.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.6900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T04:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "168494.87", "open_time": "2026-10-08T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT080030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T04:15:00.719964Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "245239.07", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5504.59", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "18963.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,615.12" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.68, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.69, "yes_ask_size": 5504.59, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.32, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T04:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0010622653447358577, "return_30m": -0.002118385143880297, "return_60m": -0.0031104822918183173, "return_120m": -0.005089654883720818, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0010448344324909264, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0023122867281683, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0038751928770672794, "ema3_slope": -0.0010437438929330467, "ema6_slope": -0.000924060014584116, "realized_volatility_30m": 2.5112365639734513e-06, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007090761752427324, "return_acceleration": -5.022473127946903e-06 } }, { "id": 186, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T1500Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:01:17.276554Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081115-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:00:00Z", "strike": 82668.86, "brti_reference_price": 82668.86166666665, "yes_ask": 0.31, "no_ask": 0.7, "yes_ask_size": 4451.64, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.7, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 139, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:01:17.451302Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.174748, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 245.37716145832746, "small_mean_absolute_error": 307.64669270832746 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 215.07823177083083, "small_mean_absolute_error": 262.4659270833308 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 172.93624305555446, "small_mean_absolute_error": 193.02149999999892 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 156.23120729166476, "small_mean_absolute_error": 170.07650208333143 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T14:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0016978113282674068, "return_12h": -0.005391054433506293, "return_24h": -0.003461024585318273, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0003291256012001309, "close_vs_ema24": -0.004242896367668947, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0023953131232851144, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.003757625451484725, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T15:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:16.243114Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T15:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82668.86, "last_price_dollars": "0.3400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T15:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "98753.75", "open_time": "2026-10-08T15:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T15:00:00.733414Z", "volume_24h_fp": "98330.54", "volume_fp": "141577.55", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3681.56", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6477.64", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,668.86" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T15:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:16.243114Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T15:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82668.86, "last_price_dollars": "0.3100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T15:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109357.93", "open_time": "2026-10-08T15:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T15:00:00.733414Z", "volume_24h_fp": "98330.54", "volume_fp": "153750.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4451.64", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8375.55", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,668.86" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.3, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.31, "yes_ask_size": 4451.64, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.7, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T14:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00203099420984465, "return_30m": -9.136019423849895e-05, "return_60m": 0.006588331280366955, "return_120m": 0.0049553702154141455, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.001032857868709991, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0020354084051528165, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0024421882992995414, "ema3_slope": 0.001033925767074173, "ema6_slope": 0.0008148267641590046, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.002074523430628361, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002330056289198432, "return_acceleration": 0.004149046861256722 } }, { "id": 187, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T1515Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:16:16.730824Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081130", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081130-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081130-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:15:00Z", "strike": 82166.73, "brti_reference_price": 82166.72816666664, "yes_ask": 0.49, "no_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 4867.92, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.52, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 186, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:16:16.914818Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183994, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 299.3116250000021, "small_mean_absolute_error": 418.2979531250021 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 275.7751250000001, "small_mean_absolute_error": 330.8678984375001 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 209.0392795138905, "small_mean_absolute_error": 248.69745312500163 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 182.83011979166622, "small_mean_absolute_error": 207.24064895833288 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.009940401790465625, "return_12h": -0.008521061266436591, "return_24h": -0.010874785577175361, "close_vs_ema12": -0.006141493496803374, "close_vs_ema24": -0.010081112306823403, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0023854189196488296, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0038845939974471166, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:16.554589Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82166.73, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "128729.00", "open_time": "2026-10-08T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T15:15:00.609604Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "177085.72", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5706.61", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5728.58", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,166.73" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:16.554589Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82166.73, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "130286.38", "open_time": "2026-10-08T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T15:15:00.609604Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "185109.73", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4867.92", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5698.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,166.73" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.48, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 4867.92, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.52, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0060740342842107165, "return_30m": -0.004055376402827604, "return_60m": -0.003765255285255509, "return_120m": -0.003075415001346782, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0025301103175014994, "close_vs_ema6": -0.002896916550248041, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0030873843483912866, "ema3_slope": -0.0025237250148030244, "ema6_slope": -0.0011574254341409906, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.004052514247027683, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0034577933993817597, "return_acceleration": -0.008105028494055366 } }, { "id": 188, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T1530Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:31:16.500241Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081145", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081145-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081145-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:30:00Z", "strike": 81292.75, "brti_reference_price": 81292.75166666666, "yes_ask": 0.62, "no_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 7993.63, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.39, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 245, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:31:16.690040Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.189799, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 477.97698958333785, "small_mean_absolute_error": 562.6664427083379 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 383.2387968749972, "small_mean_absolute_error": 431.4526640624972 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 283.83893055555745, "small_mean_absolute_error": 320.70025868055745 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 213.98992708333316, "small_mean_absolute_error": 236.22467499999985 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.020311478945067574, "return_12h": -0.01948238278309089, "return_24h": -0.020677029751127618, "close_vs_ema12": -0.016041579696794095, "close_vs_ema24": -0.020194118315310594, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0028335797460609102, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.004221896151666904, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T15:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:16.858683Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T15:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81292.75, "last_price_dollars": "0.5900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T15:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "153735.75", "open_time": "2026-10-08T15:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T15:30:00.595284Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "238122.16", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3171.77", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7156.44", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,292.75" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T15:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:16.858683Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T15:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81292.75, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T15:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T15:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "153493.18", "open_time": "2026-10-08T15:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T15:30:00.595284Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "259474.10", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7993.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2341.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,292.75" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.61, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 7993.63, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.39, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.010636622870357049, "return_30m": -0.016646049942585006, "return_60m": -0.016735889350467437, "return_120m": -0.012755024718897445, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0066133598628846935, "close_vs_ema6": -0.009682157299041427, "close_vs_ema12": -0.011609287387588374, "ema3_slope": -0.006569910679295354, "ema6_slope": -0.0038579217176494263, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.002281294293073166, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.004693130905226946, "return_acceleration": -0.004562588586146332 } }, { "id": 189, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T1545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:46:18.123721Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081200-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:45:00Z", "strike": 81164.11, "brti_reference_price": 81164.1055, "yes_ask": 0.48, "no_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 6980.73, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.53, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 182, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:46:18.319716Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.195995, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 540.0397864583356, "small_mean_absolute_error": 553.9206458333356 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 386.85800520833254, "small_mean_absolute_error": 421.20761458333254 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 313.2474947916683, "small_mean_absolute_error": 347.1635104166683 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 227.79041666666598, "small_mean_absolute_error": 244.44664895833267 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.022691132777459266, "return_12h": -0.019644707467284306, "return_24h": -0.025410938238638603, "close_vs_ema12": -0.016892518491504083, "close_vs_ema24": -0.021305874924627544, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0032853600324607157, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.004601490413650766, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:17.511484Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81164.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "143094.54", "open_time": "2026-10-08T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T15:45:00.60168Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "219013.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7818.56", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8409.81", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,164.11" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:17.511484Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81164.11, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "178171.27", "open_time": "2026-10-08T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T15:45:00.60168Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "261061.73", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6980.73", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1459.91", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,164.11" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.47, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 6980.73, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.53, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0015825047624683508, "return_30m": -0.012202295126476526, "return_60m": -0.016208186629587895, "return_120m": -0.010113819566268778, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0041095185001489565, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00806115218440251, "close_vs_ema12": -0.01116937709017074, "ema3_slope": -0.004092699475937045, "ema6_slope": -0.0032140971432780274, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.004527059053944349, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0047577928901283125, "return_acceleration": 0.009054118107888698 } }, { "id": 190, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T1600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:01:16.912783Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081215-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "strike": 80963.01, "brti_reference_price": 80963.006, "yes_ask": 0.53, "no_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 2701.93, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.48, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 201, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:01:17.124171Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.211388, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 601.0357604166747, "small_mean_absolute_error": 599.1158385416747 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 423.2064609375011, "small_mean_absolute_error": 453.3812656250011 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 343.7307413194455, "small_mean_absolute_error": 374.6825642361121 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 250.43355520833285, "small_mean_absolute_error": 260.6675218749995 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.02525267152940569, "return_12h": -0.0210387242315635, "return_24h": -0.029295598803295575, "close_vs_ema12": -0.01855407928680264, "close_vs_ema24": -0.02325287498842521, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003792048697848438, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005026027636667041, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:17.854542Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80963.01, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "169544.32", "open_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00.796934Z", "volume_24h_fp": "165858.81", "volume_fp": "263859.17", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8129.33", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1787.59", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,963.01" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:17.854542Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80963.01, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "203612.13", "open_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T16:00:00.796934Z", "volume_24h_fp": "165858.81", "volume_fp": "308004.83", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2701.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4403.16", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,963.01" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.52, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 2701.93, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.48, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T15:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.002477690091711948, "return_30m": -0.00405627389781027, "return_60m": -0.020634802902511518, "return_120m": -0.014182420539571416, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 4, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0032993632389883842, "close_vs_ema6": -0.007536127037980345, "close_vs_ema12": -0.011548298756391961, "ema3_slope": -0.0032885132392956873, "ema6_slope": -0.003005391211205577, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004475926646217987, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0035643314518098625, "return_acceleration": -0.0008951853292435974 } }, { "id": 191, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T1615Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:16:16.891609Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081230", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081230-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081230-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:15:00Z", "strike": 80971.78, "brti_reference_price": 80971.78450000001, "yes_ask": 0.48, "no_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 9746.47, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.53, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 182, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:16:17.069597Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.177988, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 527.5333958333322, "small_mean_absolute_error": 548.1212864583322 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 413.42251041666714, "small_mean_absolute_error": 483.20961979166714 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 359.6945486111108, "small_mean_absolute_error": 403.2856944444441 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 252.48332499999887, "small_mean_absolute_error": 280.01455729166554 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.024655341247229567, "return_12h": -0.019891443961313038, "return_24h": -0.029991968569605065, "close_vs_ema12": -0.01770803259712339, "close_vs_ema24": -0.022680528826907853, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.004352036431135353, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00542936771546465, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T16:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:18.262765Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80971.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T16:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109024.93", "open_time": "2026-10-08T16:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T16:15:00.594322Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "162317.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6864.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5549.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,971.78" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T16:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:18.262765Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T16:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80971.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T16:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T16:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "108715.37", "open_time": "2026-10-08T16:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T16:15:00.594322Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "160939.56", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9746.47", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "638.50", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,971.78" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.47, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 9746.47, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.53, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00010842606313321568, "return_30m": -0.0023695326747609213, "return_60m": -0.01454291406422814, "return_120m": -0.01825341156544036, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0015981976163724765, "close_vs_ema6": -0.005317370113900433, "close_vs_ema12": -0.009698021976013438, "ema3_slope": -0.0015956474564108314, "ema6_slope": -0.0021224337392664605, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001293058077422582, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.004140877895885737, "return_acceleration": 0.002586116154845164 } }, { "id": 192, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T1645Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:46:18.750735Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T17:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081300-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:45:00Z", "strike": 81208.12, "brti_reference_price": 81208.11883333333, "yes_ask": 0.63, "no_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 11914.46, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.63, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 11914.46, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 154, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:46:18.926282Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.175547, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-08T17:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 217.17843229166465, "small_mean_absolute_error": 357.27608854166465 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 378.6091093750001, "small_mean_absolute_error": 455.5983671875001 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 330.29814756944324, "small_mean_absolute_error": 399.89710590277656 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 249.2078229166662, "small_mean_absolute_error": 294.3921802083329 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.01726920230948581, "return_12h": -0.015301704260896387, "return_24h": -0.02627026836280144, "close_vs_ema12": -0.013696659113490606, "close_vs_ema24": -0.019047570508819667, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.004904352744297014, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0059118030811058375, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:19.017809Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81208.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109687.10", "open_time": "2026-10-08T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T16:45:00.605668Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "168192.91", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3845.73", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8847.55", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,208.12" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:19.017809Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81208.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "116439.85", "open_time": "2026-10-08T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T16:45:00.605668Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "186168.96", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "11914.46", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5326.54", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,208.12" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.62, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 11914.46, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.38, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 154, "entry_price": 0.63, "gross_cost": 97.02, "trading_fee": 2.52, "total_deployed": 99.53999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -97.02, "net_pnl": -99.53999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.63, "gross_cost": 63.0, "trading_fee": 1.64, "total_deployed": 64.64, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -63.0, "net_pnl": -64.64, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T16:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0006881538990497482, "return_30m": 0.0029187245259898464, "return_60m": 0.0005422758380959625, "return_120m": -0.015674700099480465, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00015640076041001372, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0013733454805964218, "close_vs_ema12": -0.004972287752233018, "ema3_slope": 0.00015642522543424242, "ema6_slope": -0.0005490365854731172, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.002148758060387612, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0022122158129454735, "return_acceleration": -0.004297516120775224 } }, { "id": 193, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T1930Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:31:17.658960Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081545", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081545-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081545-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:30:00Z", "strike": 81637.52, "brti_reference_price": 81637.51699999999, "yes_ask": 0.64, "no_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 882.0, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.64, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 882.0, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 152, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:31:17.822971Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.164011, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-08T19:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.98886458332345, "small_mean_absolute_error": 138.2149218750019 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 187.89267708332773, "small_mean_absolute_error": 213.19613541666695 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 204.45349652777804, "small_mean_absolute_error": 241.17272916667085 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 282.2229895833334, "small_mean_absolute_error": 334.5474979166691 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00856808509628404, "return_12h": -0.017371722862657868, "return_24h": -0.021323618146999235, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003051743128335005, "close_vs_ema24": -0.009722425161064363, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.006025658117259747, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.007974734701843289, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T19:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:22.989317Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T19:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T19:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81637.52, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T19:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T19:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "122396.62", "open_time": "2026-10-08T19:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T19:30:00.581928Z", "volume_24h_fp": "124480.99", "volume_fp": "186840.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3788.52", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9234.90", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,637.52" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T19:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:22.989317Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T19:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T19:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81637.52, "last_price_dollars": "0.6400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T19:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T19:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "141379.62", "open_time": "2026-10-08T19:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T19:30:00.581928Z", "volume_24h_fp": "124480.99", "volume_fp": "216867.47", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "882.00", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "13236.93", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,637.52" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.63, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 882.0, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.37, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 152, "entry_price": 0.64, "gross_cost": 97.28, "trading_fee": 2.46, "total_deployed": 99.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 152.0, "gross_pnl": 54.72, "net_pnl": 52.260000000000005, "roi": 0.5239623019851615, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.64, "gross_cost": 64.0, "trading_fee": 1.62, "total_deployed": 65.62, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 36.0, "net_pnl": 34.379999999999995, "roi": 0.5239256324291374, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0023842384322745325, "return_30m": 0.0024896079512364278, "return_60m": 0.0031626286323482855, "return_120m": 0.012183835045336266, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0015046097051811813, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0032576708037050928, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004171305331952757, "ema3_slope": 0.0015068769668900028, "ema6_slope": 0.0013047685240124007, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0011395597709055183, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010509155245633649, "return_acceleration": 0.0022791195418110366 } }, { "id": 194, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T1945Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:46:18.567774Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081600", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081600-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081600-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:45:00Z", "strike": 81678.13, "brti_reference_price": 81678.12916666667, "yes_ask": 0.48, "no_ask": 0.53, "yes_ask_size": 8114.08, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.48, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8114.08, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 201, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:46:18.751297Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183523, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-08T20:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.00084374998914, "small_mean_absolute_error": 87.83432291666759 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 201.48118229166357, "small_mean_absolute_error": 198.6537812500028 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 211.00931944444406, "small_mean_absolute_error": 226.4023802083369 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 278.0492354166665, "small_mean_absolute_error": 318.0807750000022 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00384473151417164, "return_12h": -0.016470719771252695, "return_24h": -0.020786179606901878, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0024517296002493083, "close_vs_ema24": -0.009041210687315338, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.005550083418053742, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00789069437020673, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T20:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:23.29005Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T20:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81678.13, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T20:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "147250.11", "open_time": "2026-10-08T19:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T19:45:00.573492Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "202216.59", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6343.76", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7736.47", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,678.13" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T20:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:23.29005Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T20:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81678.13, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T20:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "149409.95", "open_time": "2026-10-08T19:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T19:45:00.573492Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "209525.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8114.08", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "652.09", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,678.13" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.47, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.48, "yes_ask_size": 8114.08, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.53, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 201, "entry_price": 0.48, "gross_cost": 96.47999999999999, "trading_fee": 3.52, "total_deployed": 99.99999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 201.0, "gross_pnl": 104.52000000000001, "net_pnl": 101.00000000000001, "roi": 1.0100000000000002, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.48, "gross_cost": 48.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 49.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 52.0, "net_pnl": 50.25, "roi": 1.0100502512562815, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0004974694008230696, "return_30m": 0.002882893918761953, "return_60m": 0.0026178975833497375, "return_120m": 0.011162423772560714, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0010004119752868856, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0026805234014142254, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0039494195256848386, "ema3_slope": 0.0010014138016463114, "ema6_slope": 0.0010733602274488607, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0009433845157257315, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001044828888117384, "return_acceleration": -0.001886769031451463 } }, { "id": 195, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T2000Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:01:15.710512Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081615", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081615-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081615-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:00:00Z", "strike": 81712.22, "brti_reference_price": 81712.21883333333, "yes_ask": 0.64, "no_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 8454.63, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.64, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8454.63, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 152, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:01:15.894567Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.184055, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-08T20:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 115.95666666666148, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.09338541666148 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 189.35482031249558, "small_mean_absolute_error": 185.4795677083348 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 195.78119618055402, "small_mean_absolute_error": 214.28167881944682 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 271.89678125000063, "small_mean_absolute_error": 310.65293020833633 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.005059893865384413, "return_12h": -0.01491965994453559, "return_24h": -0.020029580926888446, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0019524721460693062, "close_vs_ema24": -0.00845123891824151, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0049147203192978495, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.007832985937610282, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T20:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:23.587307Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T20:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81712.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T20:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "172477.05", "open_time": "2026-10-08T20:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T20:00:00.59795Z", "volume_24h_fp": "266638.88", "volume_fp": "290103.18", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8454.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10285.58", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,712.22" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T20:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:23.587307Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T20:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81712.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T20:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "172477.05", "open_time": "2026-10-08T20:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T20:00:00.59795Z", "volume_24h_fp": "266638.88", "volume_fp": "290103.18", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8454.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10285.58", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,712.22" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.63, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 8454.63, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.37, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 152, "entry_price": 0.64, "gross_cost": 97.28, "trading_fee": 2.46, "total_deployed": 99.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 152.0, "gross_pnl": 54.72, "net_pnl": 52.260000000000005, "roi": 0.5239623019851615, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.64, "gross_cost": 64.0, "trading_fee": 1.62, "total_deployed": 65.62, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 36.0, "net_pnl": 34.379999999999995, "roi": 0.5239256324291374, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T19:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00041736590950924857, "return_30m": 0.000915042937101429, "return_60m": 0.0034069289865097385, "return_120m": 0.01318254061223234, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007085952480563318, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0022116189571519396, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0036938845146987642, "ema3_slope": 0.0007090977113251018, "ema6_slope": 0.0008854308771459873, "realized_volatility_30m": 4.00517456569105e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008972431553765593, "return_acceleration": -8.0103491313821e-05 } }, { "id": 196, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T2015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:16:15.350426Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081630", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081630-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081630-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:15:00Z", "strike": 81822.76, "brti_reference_price": 81822.76033333332, "yes_ask": 0.43, "no_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 13728.29, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.43, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 13728.29, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 223, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:16:15.520785Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.170359, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-08T20:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.5450052083288, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.4825052083288 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 193.77082031249302, "small_mean_absolute_error": 189.00494270833224 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 189.32258680555242, "small_mean_absolute_error": 190.28205381944522 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.2, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 253.2590968749988, "small_mean_absolute_error": 280.3886833333345 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.007935711067988183, "return_12h": -0.012881809676059008, "return_24h": -0.02016255296548608, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0005777292515448673, "close_vs_ema24": -0.006964330285188947, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0042453213223816455, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.007835119480231856, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:23.894206Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81822.76, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "155447.40", "open_time": "2026-10-08T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T20:15:00.607154Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "228189.64", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6033.58", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6198.09", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,822.76" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:23.894206Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81822.76, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "171789.85", "open_time": "2026-10-08T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T20:15:00.607154Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "258397.82", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "13728.29", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3057.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,822.76" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.42, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 13728.29, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.58, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 223, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 95.89, "trading_fee": 3.83, "total_deployed": 99.72, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.89, "net_pnl": -99.72, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 43.0, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 44.72, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -43.0, "net_pnl": -44.72, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0013528148125001582, "return_30m": 0.0017707453407942442, "return_60m": 0.004658744130530801, "return_120m": 0.0146686746585174, "consecutive_up_closes": 5, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0010301220836019809, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0025455665947715644, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004271192893663844, "ema3_slope": 0.0010311843293522305, "ema6_slope": 0.0010192644801534367, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00046772445149545483, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.000794725446891348, "return_acceleration": 0.0009354489029909097 } }, { "id": 197, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T2030Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:31:16.887243Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081645", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081645-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081645-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:30:00Z", "strike": 81718.45, "brti_reference_price": 81718.45116666667, "yes_ask": 0.39, "no_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 9371.39, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.39, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 9371.39, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 245, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:31:17.072980Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.185737, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-08T20:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.85276562499712, "small_mean_absolute_error": 77.23753124999712 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.42081510416028, "small_mean_absolute_error": 107.7262265624995 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 165.8793732638842, "small_mean_absolute_error": 167.87660069444368 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 210.99814479166525, "small_mean_absolute_error": 237.46171562500095 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.011586905810240133, "return_12h": -0.014699189478867947, "return_24h": -0.0215485154693702, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001776361360742329, "close_vs_ema24": -0.008061929697641856, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003546780807930139, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00791212953251108, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T20:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:24.448253Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T20:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81718.45, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T20:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "122605.31", "open_time": "2026-10-08T20:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T20:30:00.640333Z", "volume_24h_fp": "170579.83", "volume_fp": "256702.90", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9224.23", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5119.12", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,718.45" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T20:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:24.448253Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T20:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81718.45, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T20:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T20:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "124833.07", "open_time": "2026-10-08T20:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T20:30:00.640333Z", "volume_24h_fp": "170579.83", "volume_fp": "263218.60", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9371.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5050.66", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,718.45" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.38, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 9371.39, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.62, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 245, "entry_price": 0.39, "gross_cost": 95.55, "trading_fee": 4.08, "total_deployed": 99.63, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 245.0, "gross_pnl": 149.45, "net_pnl": 145.37, "roi": 1.4590986650607247, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.39, "gross_cost": 39.0, "trading_fee": 1.67, "total_deployed": 40.67, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 61.0, "net_pnl": 59.33, "roi": 1.4588148512417014, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00127481847644495, "return_30m": 7.627174273716619e-05, "return_60m": 0.00099138447175795, "return_120m": 0.004157148485022244, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00012301993779761933, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0009050315220977545, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0025296224456323735, "ema3_slope": -0.0001230048057540012, "ema6_slope": 0.00036214370942833085, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001313816644472554, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009526950590907704, "return_acceleration": -0.002627633288945108 } }, { "id": 198, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T2045Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:46:18.292146Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T21:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081700", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081700-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081700-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:45:00Z", "strike": 81768.34, "brti_reference_price": 81768.34116666667, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 8980.22, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8980.22, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:46:18.535384Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.243238, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-08T21:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.733890624997, "small_mean_absolute_error": 78.644046874997 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 109.36736718749307, "small_mean_absolute_error": 83.2391848958323 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 173.56541840277472, "small_mean_absolute_error": 158.6505364583342 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 193.58805624999877, "small_mean_absolute_error": 223.02545520833445 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.008884233528015484, "return_12h": -0.012817588801245838, "return_24h": -0.018966865408591715, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0011193583268691576, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007303744451293448, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00291122662239085, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.007932058224271898, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:25.204574Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81768.34, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "115865.15", "open_time": "2026-10-08T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T20:45:00.676474Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "182936.64", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8685.55", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4000.16", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,768.34" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T21:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:25.204574Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T21:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81768.34, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T21:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "117317.37", "open_time": "2026-10-08T20:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:45 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T20:45:00.676474Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "188027.02", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8980.22", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6503.64", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,768.34" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 8980.22, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.14, "net_pnl": -99.78, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -46.0, "net_pnl": -47.74, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.000610510836754008, "return_30m": -0.0006650859301857714, "return_60m": 0.0011044817127963125, "return_120m": 0.0037252707161528065, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00024364851790781294, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0010824560342703737, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0026570583727343333, "ema3_slope": 0.00024370789697569784, "ema6_slope": 0.00043316996868680846, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.000942664656599479, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009613075770104342, "return_acceleration": 0.001885329313198958 } }, { "id": 199, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261008T2100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-08T21:01:18.596896Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-08T21:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081715", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081715-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081715-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-08T21:00:00Z", "strike": 81758.15, "brti_reference_price": 81758.15133333336, "yes_ask": 0.27, "no_ask": 0.74, "yes_ask_size": 7682.84, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.27, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7682.84, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 352, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-08T21:01:18.822993Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.226097, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-08T21:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.70920312500311, "small_mean_absolute_error": 65.80100000000311 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 107.8329348958323, "small_mean_absolute_error": 80.9471927083323 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 159.47294791666476, "small_mean_absolute_error": 145.58671180555757 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 171.63146979166632, "small_mean_absolute_error": 203.989962500002 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.011016364746927465, "return_12h": -0.012695472366331173, "return_24h": -0.019602636739360135, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001193128864822035, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007275415957796794, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.002242621480272766, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.007995377602866616, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:25.479912Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81758.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.2900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "159293.16", "open_time": "2026-10-08T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T21:00:00.969339Z", "volume_24h_fp": "156919.92", "volume_fp": "240093.48", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1866.03", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7396.21", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,758.15" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-08T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:25.479912Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-08T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81758.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.2600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-08T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "189175.66", "open_time": "2026-10-08T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT081715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-08T21:00:00.969339Z", "volume_24h_fp": "156919.92", "volume_fp": "288798.05", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7682.84", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "720.45", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,758.15" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.26, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.27, "yes_ask_size": 7682.84, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.74, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 352, "entry_price": 0.27, "gross_cost": 95.04, "trading_fee": 4.86, "total_deployed": 99.9, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.04, "net_pnl": -99.9, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.27, "gross_cost": 27.0, "trading_fee": 1.38, "total_deployed": 28.38, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -27.0, "net_pnl": -28.38, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-08T20:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00012461832034160736, "return_30m": 0.00048581643557743526, "return_60m": 0.0005621252323806392, "return_120m": 0.003970969339638586, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 5.949637721913703e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0006838863115257166, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0021417193956170255, "ema3_slope": 5.9499917248517775e-05, "ema6_slope": 0.0002736293771645748, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00036756457854780766, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.000970055489763317, "return_acceleration": -0.0007351291570956153 } }, { "id": 200, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T0215Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:16:16.328754Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082230", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082230-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082230-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:15:00Z", "strike": 81967.38, "brti_reference_price": 81967.37666666666, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 11175.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:16:16.511954Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.1832, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 118.53880208333067, "small_mean_absolute_error": 98.95481770833067 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.12281249999796, "small_mean_absolute_error": 126.86597656249796 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.53499305555427, "small_mean_absolute_error": 106.4920902777776 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 103.00381979166632, "small_mean_absolute_error": 105.31671145833025 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.001767434058007833, "return_12h": -0.006182302855996524, "return_24h": -0.012890225319844073, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0019543917704762936, "close_vs_ema24": -0.002195381279188169, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0001249742205400306, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0030205145410370227, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T02:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:32.515403Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T02:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81967.38, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T02:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "119309.22", "open_time": "2026-10-09T02:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T02:15:00.862706Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "222243.62", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "249.00", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10941.37", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,967.38" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T02:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:32.515403Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T02:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81967.38, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T02:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "125659.77", "open_time": "2026-10-09T02:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T02:15:00.862706Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "238052.26", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "11175.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3045.37", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,967.38" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 11175.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0008497503017501629, "return_30m": 0.0005817300864072728, "return_60m": 0.0037891282639432866, "return_120m": 0.002393349313480897, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0006323631561764298, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0012919821125909614, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0019419509014997338, "ema3_slope": 0.000632763292369054, "ema6_slope": 0.0005170600579749163, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005587714801002508, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.000768449127055166, "return_acceleration": 0.0011175429602005016 } }, { "id": 201, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T0230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:31:17.144675Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082245-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:30:00Z", "strike": 81859.72, "brti_reference_price": 81859.71733333333, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 6869.98, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:31:17.378408Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.233733, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.54511458333218, "small_mean_absolute_error": 113.92988020833218 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.13507291666792, "small_mean_absolute_error": 125.65362760416792 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 116.7922048611096, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.12430208333292 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 105.67854479166635, "small_mean_absolute_error": 109.41760833333028 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0017286936383382745, "return_12h": -0.009878242382264202, "return_24h": -0.014920555443122319, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0006123111201863374, "close_vs_ema24": -0.00343388661231836, "ema12_slope_3h": -7.910505954067393e-05, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0029233736426959034, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T02:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:32.76645Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T02:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81859.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T02:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "93239.75", "open_time": "2026-10-09T02:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T02:30:00.729615Z", "volume_24h_fp": "99607.32", "volume_fp": "170719.02", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8502.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4040.70", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,859.72" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T02:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-07T20:01:32.76645Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T02:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81859.72, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T02:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "96787.08", "open_time": "2026-10-09T02:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on Oct 8, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on October 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT082245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T02:30:00.729615Z", "volume_24h_fp": "99607.32", "volume_fp": "186327.10", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6869.98", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "586.14", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,859.72" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 6869.98, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T02:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0013134412459134825, "return_30m": -0.00046480704125850814, "return_60m": 0.0009681847045468484, "return_120m": 0.002117027477955391, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00034107062029964386, "close_vs_ema6": -1.6540163657485785e-05, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0005296066280640055, "ema3_slope": -0.0003409543307943963, "ema6_slope": -6.616021690941665e-06, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010815957738318227, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011379776010189886, "return_acceleration": -0.0021631915476636454 } }, { "id": 202, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T0400Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:01:17.067817Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090015", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090015-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090015-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:00:00Z", "strike": 82356.15, "brti_reference_price": 82356.14700000001, "yes_ask": 0.55, "no_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 777.08, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.55, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 777.08, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 176, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:01:17.250371Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.182554, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-09T04:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 169.51420312499613, "small_mean_absolute_error": 190.8182291666635 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 151.87405208333075, "small_mean_absolute_error": 171.57391666666445 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 141.09978472221943, "small_mean_absolute_error": 153.89839236110856 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.71596874999814, "small_mean_absolute_error": 134.0463447916656 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T03:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.00907544460592069, "return_12h": 0.017207130377545843, "return_24h": -0.004193609924847519, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005734123382326262, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0025940258308347897, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0010896416708321421, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0019098383280835574, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T04:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:31.904662Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T04:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T04:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82356.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T04:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T04:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "160955.49", "open_time": "2026-10-09T04:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T04:00:01.1743Z", "volume_24h_fp": "220781.56", "volume_fp": "275654.58", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5283.24", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "102.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,356.15" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T04:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:31.904662Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T04:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T04:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82356.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T04:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T04:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "168053.69", "open_time": "2026-10-09T04:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T04:00:01.1743Z", "volume_24h_fp": "220781.56", "volume_fp": "290343.45", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "777.08", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9968.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,356.15" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.54, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 777.08, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.46, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 176, "entry_price": 0.55, "gross_cost": 96.80000000000001, "trading_fee": 3.05, "total_deployed": 99.85000000000001, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 176.0, "gross_pnl": 79.19999999999999, "net_pnl": 76.14999999999999, "roi": 0.7626439659489233, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.55, "gross_cost": 55.00000000000001, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 56.74000000000001, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 44.99999999999999, "net_pnl": 43.25999999999999, "roi": 0.76242509693338, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T03:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0004979702614062997, "return_30m": 0.002457177742958949, "return_60m": 0.0034847320776030255, "return_120m": 0.005596769260570067, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0009592040519428302, "close_vs_ema6": 0.002195604303329768, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0037211380896799984, "ema3_slope": 0.0009601250077408974, "ema6_slope": 0.0008790137078438232, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007301310393379445, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010366790319410576, "return_acceleration": -0.001460262078675889 } }, { "id": 203, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T0415Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:16:16.963169Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090030-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:15:00Z", "strike": 82440.31, "brti_reference_price": 82440.30983333333, "yes_ask": 0.5, "no_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 7254.83, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7254.83, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:16:17.139491Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.176322, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-09T04:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 213.04933854166302, "small_mean_absolute_error": 172.63918229166302 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 155.37253385416443, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.79407812499812 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 143.09462326388652, "small_mean_absolute_error": 146.1809913194423 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 130.27000937499832, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.8128854166658 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.008144050688535742, "return_12h": 0.01813625996267043, "return_24h": -0.0021159403973579627, "close_vs_ema12": 0.006484134411344433, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0035437362245425152, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.001435651086651779, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00170384109885513, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:32.156874Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82440.31, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T04:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "156589.41", "open_time": "2026-10-09T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T04:15:00.569269Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "293479.44", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7105.55", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2308.47", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,440.31" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T04:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:32.156874Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T04:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T04:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82440.31, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T04:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T04:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "161441.10", "open_time": "2026-10-09T04:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T04:15:00.569269Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "309231.72", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7254.83", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1868.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,440.31" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 7254.83, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.51, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 193, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 96.5, "trading_fee": 3.38, "total_deployed": 99.88, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.5, "net_pnl": -99.88, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 50.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 51.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -50.0, "net_pnl": -51.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0010219374800684022, "return_30m": 0.001520416635948818, "return_60m": 0.0051670214962280525, "return_120m": 0.005769773120712696, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0009900796600630368, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00229773305046721, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004013658234450768, "ema3_slope": 0.0009910608892915729, "ema6_slope": 0.0009199387296363604, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00026198360933105125, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005695281169945564, "return_acceleration": 0.0005239672186621025 } }, { "id": 204, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T0445Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:46:18.039726Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090100-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:45:00Z", "strike": 82275.9, "brti_reference_price": 82275.89766666666, "yes_ask": 0.52, "no_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 1014.17, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.49, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 197, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:46:18.233614Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.193888, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 116.57868750000853, "small_mean_absolute_error": 75.57868750000853 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 149.8706250000032, "small_mean_absolute_error": 149.6593567708369 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 135.34300347222234, "small_mean_absolute_error": 138.5882256944448 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.67873645833242, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.2501281249999 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.005209064211600056, "return_12h": 0.01314867095400607, "return_24h": -0.0023542303812523757, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0040708074359079305, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0014554411173537396, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0017820887268431562, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0013737896729233423, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T05:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:33.489351Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T05:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T05:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82275.9, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T05:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T05:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "124292.50", "open_time": "2026-10-09T04:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T04:45:00.728704Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "159509.63", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5718.03", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4912.83", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,275.90" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T05:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:33.489351Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T05:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T05:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82275.9, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T05:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T05:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "127601.68", "open_time": "2026-10-09T04:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T04:45:00.728704Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "169074.78", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1014.17", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9309.95", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,275.90" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.51, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 1014.17, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.49, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.001179259262508836, "return_30m": -0.0019943176705553567, "return_60m": -0.0004769332283701688, "return_120m": 0.0036709293226568906, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0005466703840576459, "close_vs_ema6": -8.852120763680471e-05, "close_vs_ema12": 0.001285133523590165, "ema3_slope": -0.0005463716988312051, "ema6_slope": -3.540722933836893e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00018161927724197335, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00090724557170479, "return_acceleration": -0.0003632385544839467 } }, { "id": 205, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T0500Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:01:17.320702Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090115-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:00:00Z", "strike": 82196.21, "brti_reference_price": 82196.206, "yes_ask": 0.41, "no_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 7714.94, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7714.94, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:01:17.498599Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.177897, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-09T05:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 103.20528125000419, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.37520312500419 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 136.35974218750016, "small_mean_absolute_error": 146.59671614583385 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 135.6511284722219, "small_mean_absolute_error": 148.50767881944435 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.2, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 131.13994062499916, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.09449583333262 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.004612690823525112, "return_12h": 0.016268992063389165, "return_24h": -0.0048525745235522555, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002971437897949958, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00047544642723318375, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.001858168562343776, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.001251006573436353, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:33.738503Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82196.21, "last_price_dollars": "0.4000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T05:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "150401.40", "open_time": "2026-10-09T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T05:00:01.053272Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "199626.49", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8377.67", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3883.32", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,196.21" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:33.738503Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82196.21, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T05:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "160533.62", "open_time": "2026-10-09T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T05:00:01.053272Z", "volume_24h_fp": "164830.67", "volume_fp": "215013.55", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7714.94", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2315.72", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,196.21" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.4, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 7714.94, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.6, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 234, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 95.94, "trading_fee": 3.97, "total_deployed": 99.91, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 234.0, "gross_pnl": 138.06, "net_pnl": 134.09, "roi": 1.3421078971073968, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 41.0, "trading_fee": 1.7, "total_deployed": 42.7, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 59.0, "net_pnl": 57.3, "roi": 1.3419203747072599, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T04:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0009685906678225109, "return_30m": -0.0021467077108147103, "return_60m": -0.0019420651138524203, "return_120m": 0.0015358993871517068, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0007579398136989823, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0007552467577630617, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00026677774866934456, "ema3_slope": -0.0007573657760238106, "ema6_slope": -0.000302007467040899, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00010533429734316258, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008798139293744586, "return_acceleration": 0.00021066859468632515 } }, { "id": 206, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T0545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:46:18.244806Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T06:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090200-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:45:00Z", "strike": 82439.76, "brti_reference_price": 82439.76266666666, "yes_ask": 0.44, "no_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 8768.47, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.44, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8768.47, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 218, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:46:18.430548Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.185742, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-09T06:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 151.65137499999037, "small_mean_absolute_error": 118.59520833332135 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.11503124999945, "small_mean_absolute_error": 97.08694791666494 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.46420833333227, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.30464062499837 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.6508093749988, "small_mean_absolute_error": 133.44022499999846 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.008473472791850067, "return_12h": 0.02059132700214983, "return_24h": -0.004879590516349119, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005294048902818371, "close_vs_ema24": 0.003258673313141003, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0023130770132875345, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0007086689804846058, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:35.464594Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82439.76, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T06:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "93063.30", "open_time": "2026-10-09T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T05:45:00.972657Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "152766.25", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4409.26", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4354.27", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,439.76" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:35.464594Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82439.76, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T06:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "97703.35", "open_time": "2026-10-09T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T05:45:00.972657Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "163388.69", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8768.47", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "624.79", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,439.76" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 8768.47, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.57, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 218, "entry_price": 0.44, "gross_cost": 95.92, "trading_fee": 3.77, "total_deployed": 99.69, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.92, "net_pnl": -99.69, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.44, "gross_cost": 44.0, "trading_fee": 1.73, "total_deployed": 45.73, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -44.0, "net_pnl": -45.73, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00025994650182803447, "return_30m": 0.0016654883232236628, "return_60m": 0.0019916525330891943, "return_120m": 0.0015137694194466977, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00041777149108179756, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0009923300460785711, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0021046495284433586, "ema3_slope": 0.0004179460970457072, "ema6_slope": 0.000397089636022141, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001092940983533408, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011619299402081526, "return_acceleration": -0.002185881967066816 } }, { "id": 207, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T0600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T06:01:16.648870Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T06:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090215-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T06:00:00Z", "strike": 82304.8, "brti_reference_price": 82304.797, "yes_ask": 0.6, "no_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 2795.16, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T06:01:16.841912Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.193042, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 155.66964062499028, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.71503645832126 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 129.43746093749724, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.54511979166273 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 142.79637499999686, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.96948958332965 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 136.43485520833056, "small_mean_absolute_error": 133.35708333333022 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0076843184209332005, "return_12h": 0.020530154726582817, "return_24h": -0.0039777213814881085, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0034988102421018574, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0015827994277681778, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0023354278307998744, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0005367706215707591, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:35.741631Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82304.8, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T06:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "96771.12", "open_time": "2026-10-09T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T06:00:01.825654Z", "volume_24h_fp": "102582.17", "volume_fp": "163969.53", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1472.60", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7367.41", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,304.80" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:35.741631Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82304.8, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T06:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "98799.29", "open_time": "2026-10-09T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT090215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T06:00:01.825654Z", "volume_24h_fp": "102582.17", "volume_fp": "167541.81", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2795.16", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3463.77", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,304.80" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.59, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 2795.16, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.41, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T05:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0016371428337605964, "return_30m": -0.001896663766036033, "return_60m": 0.0013211193713733582, "return_120m": -0.0006235114423214227, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0006104000080215943, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0004618262788660399, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00039263903797648325, "ema3_slope": -0.0006100276471406874, "ema6_slope": -0.00018469639248730463, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.000688598165966281, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013871571952783044, "return_acceleration": -0.001377196331932562 } }, { "id": 208, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T1945Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T19:46:17.850730Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091600", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091600-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091600-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T19:45:00Z", "strike": 82337.28, "brti_reference_price": 82337.27866666668, "yes_ask": 0.44, "no_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 779.47, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T19:46:18.063594Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.212864, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.40328645832778, "small_mean_absolute_error": 72.50015624999651 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.88957291666156, "small_mean_absolute_error": 86.01124999999593 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 98.10201041666369, "small_mean_absolute_error": 103.30898090277454 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 107.88287916666668, "small_mean_absolute_error": 116.88875625 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T19:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0018942997029646191, "return_12h": -0.0016435110861225954, "return_24h": 0.008070085673179461, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002929687092373956, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0020043951507379143, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0006709173631306298, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0010993423244636258, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T20:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:49.668267Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T20:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82337.28, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T20:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "157343.45", "open_time": "2026-10-09T19:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T19:45:00.597327Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "221206.29", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8492.42", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5156.65", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,337.28" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T20:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:49.668267Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091600", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T20:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82337.28, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T20:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "186459.90", "open_time": "2026-10-09T19:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091600-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T19:45:00.597327Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "263641.36", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "779.47", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10772.87", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,337.28" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 779.47, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.57, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T19:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0005909380413022802, "return_30m": -0.0013005556905800741, "return_60m": -0.0006855393506051133, "return_120m": -0.0035715468160008035, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004340930775229568, "close_vs_ema6": -0.000959794117158852, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0019496149303548371, "ema3_slope": -0.00043390472248661105, "ema6_slope": -0.00038377031066905154, "realized_volatility_30m": 5.954959799486792e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005994758534776758, "return_acceleration": 0.00011909919598973584 } }, { "id": 209, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T2000Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:01:17.060164Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091615", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091615-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091615-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:00:00Z", "strike": 82256.94, "brti_reference_price": 82256.942, "yes_ask": 0.65, "no_ask": 0.36, "yes_ask_size": 6693.39, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.36, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 265, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:01:17.324831Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.264667, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.7951302083311, "small_mean_absolute_error": 84.86465624999983 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 116.3486432291611, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.01426562499546 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.17734374999782, "small_mean_absolute_error": 93.93965277777534 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.55758750000022, "small_mean_absolute_error": 104.55487083333355 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T19:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00361802699817082, "return_12h": -0.0038931593676521103, "return_24h": 0.006666361217992689, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003743840195538306, "close_vs_ema24": -0.002916901205632705, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0008482748434874843, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.001001920559547731, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T20:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:49.905521Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T20:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82256.94, "last_price_dollars": "0.6700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T20:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "146420.75", "open_time": "2026-10-09T20:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T20:00:00.585531Z", "volume_24h_fp": "169828.94", "volume_fp": "274101.64", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4367.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9146.47", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,256.94" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T20:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:49.905521Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091615", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T20:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82256.94, "last_price_dollars": "0.6500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T20:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "149066.59", "open_time": "2026-10-09T20:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 PM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091615-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T20:00:00.585531Z", "volume_24h_fp": "169828.94", "volume_fp": "281568.76", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6693.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7253.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,256.94" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.64, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.65, "yes_ask_size": 6693.39, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.36, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T19:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0009757022331514653, "return_30m": -0.0015660636948872098, "return_60m": -0.0014630275847598018, "return_120m": -0.0048450880537659335, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0007051828149188255, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0013825926859867277, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0024747718221732606, "ema3_slope": -0.0007046858825446867, "ema6_slope": -0.0005527313934420297, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00019238209592459254, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006950995386798151, "return_acceleration": -0.0003847641918491851 } }, { "id": 210, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261009T2015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:16:15.595669Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091630", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091630-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091630-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:15:00Z", "strike": 82343.24, "brti_reference_price": 82343.24249999998, "yes_ask": 0.51, "no_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 13729.65, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.51, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 13729.65, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 189, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:16:15.782184Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.186515, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-09T20:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 118.74891666666008, "small_mean_absolute_error": 88.90321354166008 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 118.98318749999089, "small_mean_absolute_error": 90.40759895832525 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.73941319443959, "small_mean_absolute_error": 89.50497743055045 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 98.23706458333254, "small_mean_absolute_error": 86.23161354166587 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.005166679376113148, "return_12h": -0.0034235000259548176, "return_24h": 0.006361092739309848, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0025887482033604137, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0018323058300072637, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0009255659359406199, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0008741920905517286, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:50.161773Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82343.24, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "105171.65", "open_time": "2026-10-09T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T20:15:00.524982Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "180147.21", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8398.74", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9836.73", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,343.24" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-09T20:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-08T20:01:50.161773Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-09T20:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82343.24, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T20:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-09T20:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "126145.60", "open_time": "2026-10-09T20:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:30 PM EDT on Oct 9, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:15 PM EDT on October 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT091630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-09T20:15:00.524982Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "207212.53", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "13729.65", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3727.67", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,343.24" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.5, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 13729.65, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.5, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 189, "entry_price": 0.51, "gross_cost": 96.39, "trading_fee": 3.31, "total_deployed": 99.7, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.39, "net_pnl": -99.7, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.51, "gross_cost": 51.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 52.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -51.0, "net_pnl": -52.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-09T20:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0010491576504263467, "return_30m": 7.243175181237405e-05, "return_60m": -0.0012282181402946124, "return_120m": -0.003016008041908047, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00017158804627070978, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00023922688479216525, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0012087514827895385, "ema3_slope": 0.00017161749378136193, "ema6_slope": -9.568159807271659e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001012429941788906, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0007952021783390898, "return_acceleration": 0.002024859883577812 } }, { "id": 211, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261010T0930Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-10T09:31:17.065189Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-10T09:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100545", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100545-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100545-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-10T09:30:00Z", "strike": 82837.27, "brti_reference_price": 82837.26616666667, "yes_ask": 0.54, "no_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 5519.27, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5519.27, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-10T09:31:17.248037Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.182848, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-10T09:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 106.18828645833128, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.63555208333128 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 74.36652343749665, "small_mean_absolute_error": 97.79523437499665 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 70.51813194444428, "small_mean_absolute_error": 86.13727256944428 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.88162291666595, "small_mean_absolute_error": 67.37945833333143 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-10T09:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0038625098835114446, "return_12h": 0.003972885591734476, "return_24h": 0.0030984806068168336, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0023810408537912053, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0031186613025302456, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0007151099539466355, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0008607537928235764, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-10T09:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:13.896477Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T09:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-17T09:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82837.27, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T09:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-10T09:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "45483.08", "open_time": "2026-10-10T09:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 AM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 AM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-10T09:30:00.525779Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "79295.83", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1046.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5890.12", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,837.27" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-10T09:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:13.896477Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T09:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-17T09:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82837.27, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T09:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-10T09:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "54596.09", "open_time": "2026-10-10T09:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:45 AM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:30 AM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-10T09:30:00.525779Z", "volume_24h_fp": "73557.20", "volume_fp": "90718.06", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5519.27", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2377.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,837.27" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.53, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 5519.27, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.47, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 179, "entry_price": 0.54, "gross_cost": 96.66000000000001, "trading_fee": 3.12, "total_deployed": 99.78000000000002, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.66000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.78000000000002, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.54, "gross_cost": 54.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 55.74, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -54.0, "net_pnl": -55.74, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-10T09:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 3.12650866518549e-05, "return_30m": 0.0008421435076506611, "return_60m": 0.0010790071990536276, "return_120m": 0.0032642670960094655, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0002718596233128867, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0006580401720959195, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0011412881032404343, "ema3_slope": 0.000271933551065473, "ema6_slope": 0.0002632853697783766, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0003897939914777604, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0004022156640346252, "return_acceleration": -0.0007795879829555208 } }, { "id": 212, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261010T1015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-10T10:16:16.548716Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-10T10:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100630", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100630-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100630-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-10T10:15:00Z", "strike": 82759.5, "brti_reference_price": 82759.49983333332, "yes_ask": 0.57, "no_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 4836.32, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4836.32, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-10T10:16:16.728658Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.179942, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-10T10:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 48.03228124999805, "small_mean_absolute_error": 65.80989583333212 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 71.21030989582869, "small_mean_absolute_error": 85.92821874999572 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.51541319444125, "small_mean_absolute_error": 82.24467013888595 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.33054374999847, "small_mean_absolute_error": 70.58193749999846 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-10T10:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0014909732517278673, "return_12h": 0.004590156673777379, "return_24h": 0.0014590541494030607, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0012337168108649266, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002025509672726633, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.000788967044036859, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0009811880814005747, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-10T10:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:14.7889Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T10:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-17T10:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82759.5, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T10:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-10T10:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "44306.07", "open_time": "2026-10-10T10:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-10T10:15:00.550015Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "66931.06", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5765.35", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "554.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,759.50" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-10T10:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:14.7889Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T10:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-17T10:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82759.5, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T10:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-10T10:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "46725.58", "open_time": "2026-10-10T10:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT100630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-10T10:15:00.550015Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "70168.22", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4836.32", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "472.04", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,759.50" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 4836.32, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.44, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 170, "entry_price": 0.57, "gross_cost": 96.89999999999999, "trading_fee": 2.92, "total_deployed": 99.82, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.89999999999999, "net_pnl": -99.82, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.57, "gross_cost": 56.99999999999999, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 58.71999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -56.99999999999999, "net_pnl": -58.71999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-10T10:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0002757130455371959, "return_30m": -0.0006910902036258992, "return_60m": -0.0009075486659413379, "return_120m": -3.322972329389273e-05, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00023878943223398785, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0002595937878088206, "close_vs_ema12": 9.930549334624672e-06, "ema3_slope": -0.00023873242545358053, "ema6_slope": -0.0001038267340135457, "realized_volatility_30m": 6.98893345187912e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00016204806513236408, "return_acceleration": 0.0001397786690375824 } }, { "id": 213, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261010T1830Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:31:17.042462Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101445", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101445-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101445-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:30:00Z", "strike": 82940.71, "brti_reference_price": 82940.7066666667, "yes_ask": 0.72, "no_ask": 0.29, "yes_ask_size": 7829.29, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.29, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 328, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:31:17.229519Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.187057, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 62.11356770832572, "small_mean_absolute_error": 58.28544270832572 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 60.565929687492826, "small_mean_absolute_error": 64.00049999999283 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 57.109506944439396, "small_mean_absolute_error": 62.018397569440516 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 59.674270833332415, "small_mean_absolute_error": 67.89078958333047 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0021132379237058796, "return_12h": 0.002678396251773796, "return_24h": 0.006125884474547094, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0012455970772893288, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0024809651785728803, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0011243616234803966, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0013685591891887672, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-10T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:25.766647Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-17T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82940.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.7100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T18:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-10T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "125044.18", "open_time": "2026-10-10T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-10T18:30:01.635393Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "202388.07", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7829.29", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7634.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,940.71" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-10T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:25.766647Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-17T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82940.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.7100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T18:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-10T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "125044.18", "open_time": "2026-10-10T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-10T18:30:01.635393Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "202388.07", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7829.29", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7634.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,940.71" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.71, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.72, "yes_ask_size": 7829.29, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.29, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0006322106141835038, "return_30m": -0.0012043329138626824, "return_60m": -0.0004846354915075679, "return_120m": 4.484529102088963e-05, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004302850874479125, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0005344374861835366, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0003101691595682743, "ema3_slope": -0.0004301000218224216, "ema6_slope": -0.00021372930449248262, "realized_volatility_30m": 2.986319194875353e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006861707131686952, "return_acceleration": -5.972638389750706e-05 } }, { "id": 214, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261010T1845Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:46:18.203602Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-10T19:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101500", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101500-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101500-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:45:00Z", "strike": 82958.65, "brti_reference_price": 82958.6455, "yes_ask": 0.54, "no_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 8541.75, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.47, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 205, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:46:18.391497Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.187895, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 42.417927083326504, "small_mean_absolute_error": 55.164020833326504 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 50.35567968749274, "small_mean_absolute_error": 59.69747656249274 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 53.08751562499432, "small_mean_absolute_error": 58.480130208328774 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 60.25938124999884, "small_mean_absolute_error": 67.78918124999691 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.002135947843802777, "return_12h": 0.002190902882739154, "return_24h": 0.0068558911165312875, "close_vs_ema12": 0.001402388164398083, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002641992478002342, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0010775857045681736, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0013843966539603958, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-10T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:26.036108Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101500", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T19:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-17T19:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82958.65, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T19:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,958.65", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-10T19:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "80868.40", "open_time": "2026-10-10T18:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least 82958.65, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101500-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-10T18:45:11.5311Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "145207.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8541.75", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1689.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,958.65" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-10T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:26.036108Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101500", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-10T19:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-17T19:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82958.65, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T19:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,958.65", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-10T19:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "80868.40", "open_time": "2026-10-10T18:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least 82958.65, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT101500-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-10T18:45:11.5311Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "145207.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8541.75", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1689.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,958.65" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.53, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 8541.75, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.47, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-10T18:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00021628503125015186, "return_30m": -0.000416062320625854, "return_60m": -0.001318375167342234, "return_120m": -0.00021862741093259253, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00010705802040356094, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00022735499263837333, "close_vs_ema12": -7.949832952602875e-05, "ema3_slope": -0.00010704656021065517, "ema6_slope": -9.09337273604649e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004242478227168278, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003348719864481295, "return_acceleration": 0.0008484956454336556 } }, { "id": 215, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T0045Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T00:46:17.953690Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T01:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102100-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T00:45:00Z", "strike": 82884.32, "brti_reference_price": 82884.31833333333, "yes_ask": 0.56, "no_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 637.99, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.45, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 213, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T00:46:18.163208Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.209518, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 38.03841666667722, "small_mean_absolute_error": 49.87044791667722 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 31.454169270835337, "small_mean_absolute_error": 37.35455989583534 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 30.1253142361129, "small_mean_absolute_error": 38.126616319446235 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 35.205490624999946, "small_mean_absolute_error": 47.234787499999946 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T00:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0008959544387290297, "return_12h": 0.0012380796931223959, "return_24h": 0.0048650124070763745, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00040479943605553625, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0006755289712885304, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00026252882149191414, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0010677363875815082, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T01:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:32.98021Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T01:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T01:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82884.32, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T01:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T01:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "72681.04", "open_time": "2026-10-11T00:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T00:45:00.54896Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "124903.02", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4209.65", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1961.60", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,884.32" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T01:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:32.98021Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T01:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T01:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82884.32, "last_price_dollars": "0.5500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T01:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T01:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "75198.90", "open_time": "2026-10-11T00:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T00:45:00.54896Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "130670.85", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "637.99", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6561.29", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,884.32" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 637.99, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.45, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T00:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0001704595619747007, "return_30m": -0.00078958986944766, "return_60m": -0.0007167827788618908, "return_120m": -0.001270066930477931, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00022147125398019885, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00045983081924527713, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0007076063052453563, "ema3_slope": -0.00022142221532450712, "ema6_slope": -0.0001838985028184137, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00022438815008601898, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003889568851911962, "return_acceleration": 0.00044877630017203796 } }, { "id": 216, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T0100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T01:01:17.801635Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T01:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102115-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T01:00:00Z", "strike": 82869.95, "brti_reference_price": 82869.95083333335, "yes_ask": 0.6, "no_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 4564.73, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T01:01:17.987575Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.18594, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 45.95572395833733, "small_mean_absolute_error": 62.03970833333733 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 32.77354427083446, "small_mean_absolute_error": 46.79405208333446 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 29.06497222222121, "small_mean_absolute_error": 39.48098784722121 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 35.4987354166653, "small_mean_absolute_error": 48.96436041666529 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T00:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.001106839047766317, "return_12h": 0.0015445997489664798, "return_24h": 0.004466117346079379, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0005544915304354081, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0004917261963726105, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0001958956003469403, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0010227920776508803, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T01:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:33.258746Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T01:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T01:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82869.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T01:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T01:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109638.84", "open_time": "2026-10-11T01:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T01:00:00.750327Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "167865.68", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4459.08", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1175.29", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,869.95" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T01:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-09T20:01:33.258746Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T01:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T01:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82869.95, "last_price_dollars": "0.5900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T01:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T01:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "116659.85", "open_time": "2026-10-11T01:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on Oct 10, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on October 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT102115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T01:00:00.750327Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "177312.20", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4564.73", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1122.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,869.95" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.59, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 4564.73, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.41, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T00:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00017334400872059952, "return_30m": -0.0003437740225514796, "return_60m": -0.0005277193455403006, "return_120m": -0.00175320685366398, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00019742740587991303, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0004522926119616688, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0007454167206539797, "ema3_slope": -0.00019738843599281797, "ema6_slope": -0.00018088431972818064, "realized_volatility_30m": 1.4422233729494138e-06, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003750466618757944, "return_acceleration": -2.8844467458988277e-06 } }, { "id": 217, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1500Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:01:17.417729Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111115-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:00:00Z", "strike": 83044.56, "brti_reference_price": 83044.56216666666, "yes_ask": 0.5, "no_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 6389.17, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6389.17, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:01:17.612072Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.194343, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T15:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 26.89781770834088, "small_mean_absolute_error": 42.663223958341405 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 27.599346354170848, "small_mean_absolute_error": 40.821294270837825 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 40.52368055555659, "small_mean_absolute_error": 69.26865104166791 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 40.456897916667366, "small_mean_absolute_error": 59.55778645833416 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T14:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0009191120231595296, "return_12h": 0.0003749433166562177, "return_24h": 0.0015955982227435772, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0007047839099274533, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0013209339173878565, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00039636908862261677, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0005413567112073636, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T15:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:11.66674Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T15:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T15:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83044.56, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T15:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T15:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "60037.21", "open_time": "2026-10-11T15:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T15:00:00.943415Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "98724.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2101.27", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2313.38", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,044.56" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T15:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:11.66674Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T15:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T15:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83044.56, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T15:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T15:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "63050.07", "open_time": "2026-10-11T15:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T15:00:00.943415Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "103178.94", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6389.17", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "444.41", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,044.56" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 6389.17, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.51, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 193, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 96.5, "trading_fee": 3.38, "total_deployed": 99.88, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 193.0, "gross_pnl": 96.5, "net_pnl": 93.12, "roi": 0.932318782539047, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 50.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 51.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 50.0, "net_pnl": 48.25, "roi": 0.9323671497584541, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T14:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -4.456846148714888e-05, "return_30m": 0.0004936734530178732, "return_60m": 0.0004898484522464219, "return_120m": 6.090273952708003e-05, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00010518912991464013, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00019220526961616358, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00026488373632327367, "ema3_slope": 0.0001052001958317117, "ema6_slope": 7.68880191595045e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00029141718283776097, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00024409747082207797, "return_acceleration": -0.0005828343656755219 } }, { "id": 218, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1530Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:31:16.411622Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111145", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111145-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111145-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:30:00Z", "strike": 83073.42, "brti_reference_price": 83073.41783333333, "yes_ask": 0.42, "no_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 6685.08, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.42, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6685.08, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 228, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:31:16.604944Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.193322, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T15:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 29.162963541679346, "small_mean_absolute_error": 52.170776041679346 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 22.151148437502343, "small_mean_absolute_error": 31.71073177083781 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 24.35569965278167, "small_mean_absolute_error": 50.71785763889299 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.55, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 37.73366770833454, "small_mean_absolute_error": 57.71463437500133 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0013992412562133794, "return_12h": 0.002729897382234503, "return_24h": 0.0019621947408352547, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00098000128236575, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0016066716274221182, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0003143772084936991, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0005683203770860956, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T15:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:12.292922Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T15:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T15:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83073.42, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T15:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T15:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "60783.72", "open_time": "2026-10-11T15:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.655274Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "106408.40", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2261.96", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3172.47", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,073.42" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T15:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:12.292922Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T15:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T15:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83073.42, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T15:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T15:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "68981.86", "open_time": "2026-10-11T15:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T15:30:00.655274Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "127345.98", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6685.08", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1027.85", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,073.42" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.41, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 6685.08, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.59, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 228, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 95.75999999999999, "trading_fee": 3.89, "total_deployed": 99.64999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 228.0, "gross_pnl": 132.24, "net_pnl": 128.35000000000002, "roi": 1.2880080280983446, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 42.0, "trading_fee": 1.71, "total_deployed": 43.71, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 58.0, "net_pnl": 56.29, "roi": 1.2878059940517044, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0002995517222039723, "return_30m": 0.0003474720790117569, "return_60m": 0.0008413170697707528, "return_120m": 0.0008045622008248099, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00018802408003937288, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00033645897021239435, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00047744083774414747, "ema3_slope": 0.0001880594397427604, "ema6_slope": 0.00013460170326506926, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00012582285786155722, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00022740780852688, "return_acceleration": 0.00025164571572311445 } }, { "id": 219, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:46:19.905735Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111200-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:45:00Z", "strike": 83329.29, "brti_reference_price": 83329.28533333333, "yes_ask": 0.5, "no_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 7612.36, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7612.36, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:46:20.114515Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.20878, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 87.18990625000515, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.35006250000515 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 53.014950520837374, "small_mean_absolute_error": 67.03644791667284 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 46.63235763889194, "small_mean_absolute_error": 67.21456770833659 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 51.533317708333925, "small_mean_absolute_error": 70.62209687500072 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.004420409808930215, "return_12h": 0.00515738134671051, "return_24h": 0.004448892128050108, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003896551819785321, "close_vs_ema24": 0.004594437729352752, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00042407116434173275, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.000647797322347099, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:12.659992Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83329.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "98909.84", "open_time": "2026-10-11T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T15:45:00.690547Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "151086.29", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1220.00", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2140.48", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,329.29" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:12.659992Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83329.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "111270.25", "open_time": "2026-10-11T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T15:45:00.690547Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "172866.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7612.36", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "0.03", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,329.29" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 7612.36, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.51, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 193, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 96.5, "trading_fee": 3.38, "total_deployed": 99.88, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 193.0, "gross_pnl": 96.5, "net_pnl": 93.12, "roi": 0.932318782539047, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 50.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 51.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 50.0, "net_pnl": 48.25, "roi": 0.9323671497584541, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00308001652843215, "return_30m": 0.003380490874891562, "return_60m": 0.0033838375601111803, "return_120m": 0.003947258578602675, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0016316432522129887, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0024386986323534643, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003009752601950799, "ema3_slope": 0.0016343098628728292, "ema6_slope": 0.0009764319422382872, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001390232403114089, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012961000614709884, "return_acceleration": 0.002780464806228178 } }, { "id": 220, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:01:17.402443Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111215-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "strike": 83835.85, "brti_reference_price": 83835.84750000002, "yes_ask": 0.25, "no_ask": 0.76, "yes_ask_size": 2548.53, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.25, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 2548.53, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 380, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:01:17.603212Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.200769, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T16:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 243.65560416667358, "small_mean_absolute_error": 244.73958854167358 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 135.27671093750723, "small_mean_absolute_error": 143.7014062500075 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.61809895833842, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.79405902778308 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 83.93507604166807, "small_mean_absolute_error": 100.62463645833486 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.010524434982558617, "return_12h": 0.012950822219040425, "return_24h": 0.010515456029317471, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00958723364371683, "close_vs_ema24": 0.010478383743313557, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0007984853959837057, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0008515613621040696, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:13.206288Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83835.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.2900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "170640.95", "open_time": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T16:00:00.632685Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "272674.10", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5259.49", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3839.72", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,835.85" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:13.206288Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83835.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.2500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "184294.92", "open_time": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T16:00:00.632685Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "304011.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2548.53", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2814.67", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,835.85" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.24, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.25, "yes_ask_size": 2548.53, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.76, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 380, "entry_price": 0.25, "gross_cost": 95.0, "trading_fee": 4.99, "total_deployed": 99.99, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.0, "net_pnl": -99.99, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.25, "gross_cost": 25.0, "trading_fee": 1.32, "total_deployed": 26.32, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -25.0, "net_pnl": -26.32, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T15:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00607904129551029, "return_30m": 0.009177781371609406, "return_60m": 0.009528442473395016, "return_120m": 0.010022958418439254, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0038454570628285722, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0060798672377826435, "close_vs_ema12": 0.007695217792249798, "ema3_slope": 0.0038603016872165163, "ema6_slope": 0.002437875679301982, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00149951238353907, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002446416339238935, "return_acceleration": 0.00299902476707814 } }, { "id": 221, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1615Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:16:17.193345Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111230", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111230-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111230-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:15:00Z", "strike": 83756.47, "brti_reference_price": 83756.46866666667, "yes_ask": 0.57, "no_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 5788.05, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5788.05, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:16:17.376673Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183328, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T16:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 246.83491145833614, "small_mean_absolute_error": 240.15717708333614 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 138.1303567708419, "small_mean_absolute_error": 143.60485677084216 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 96.9965086805593, "small_mean_absolute_error": 99.00384895833729 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 84.6573354166685, "small_mean_absolute_error": 100.62189583333529 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.009680369085398599, "return_12h": 0.011758284185643397, "return_24h": 0.009673498235555744, "close_vs_ema12": 0.008276105261345812, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009323446265025348, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0011294246678132946, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0010337048794617498, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T16:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:13.526229Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T16:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83756.47, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T16:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "125840.61", "open_time": "2026-10-11T16:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T16:15:00.542183Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "185950.97", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6534.10", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1345.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,756.47" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T16:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:13.526229Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T16:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83756.47, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T16:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "128352.63", "open_time": "2026-10-11T16:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T16:15:00.542183Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "192863.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5788.05", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1246.49", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,756.47" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 5788.05, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.44, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 170, "entry_price": 0.57, "gross_cost": 96.89999999999999, "trading_fee": 2.92, "total_deployed": 99.82, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 170.0, "gross_pnl": 73.10000000000001, "net_pnl": 70.18, "roi": 0.7030655179322782, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.57, "gross_cost": 56.99999999999999, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 58.71999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 43.00000000000001, "net_pnl": 41.28000000000001, "roi": 0.70299727520436, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0009468364154527897, "return_30m": 0.00512644902238768, "return_60m": 0.008524269811420071, "return_120m": 0.009010571640414966, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0014453976159705118, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0036569814599838324, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0056980942396800405, "ema3_slope": 0.0014474898142975423, "ema6_slope": 0.001464935480750773, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00351293885548154, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0027071620224294866, "return_acceleration": -0.00702587771096308 } }, { "id": 222, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1630Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:31:16.647588Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111245-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:30:00Z", "strike": 83825.96, "brti_reference_price": 83825.95783333333, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 3471.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3471.57, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:31:16.832893Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.185305, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T16:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 271.0792864583382, "small_mean_absolute_error": 319.7179583333382 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.12112500000876, "small_mean_absolute_error": 185.94436718750876 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 105.12719444444762, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.7131406250046 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.4508760416691, "small_mean_absolute_error": 116.3490302083359 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.010975650989472063, "return_12h": 0.012089704513126964, "return_24h": 0.010718625411689109, "close_vs_ema12": 0.008737435030550689, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009949236371090242, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0014863360719470364, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0012387285267623227, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:13.822201Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83825.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "107458.79", "open_time": "2026-10-11T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T16:30:00.748169Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "155403.23", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4772.27", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "420.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,825.96" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:13.822201Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83825.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T16:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "118624.63", "open_time": "2026-10-11T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T16:30:00.748169Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "177978.53", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3471.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2182.25", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,825.96" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 3471.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 209.0, "gross_pnl": 112.86, "net_pnl": 109.22, "roi": 1.0946081379033874, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 54.0, "net_pnl": 52.26, "roi": 1.0946795140343526, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0008296573121202577, "return_30m": -0.00011796465308810955, "return_60m": 0.009058734064725682, "return_120m": 0.009907672402095669, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.001136833195777287, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0032028007161368777, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005521932720891964, "ema3_slope": 0.0011381270563957102, "ema6_slope": 0.0012827636610035498, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008882468637865237, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0026261751008625736, "return_acceleration": 0.0017764937275730475 } }, { "id": 223, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1645Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:46:18.949099Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111300-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:45:00Z", "strike": 83840.08, "brti_reference_price": 83840.08383333332, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 6281.69, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.47, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6281.69, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 205, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:46:19.142478Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.193379, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 235.28477083333564, "small_mean_absolute_error": 325.88633333333564 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 161.2373385416704, "small_mean_absolute_error": 217.1181979166704 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.77155729167013, "small_mean_absolute_error": 153.31974305556045 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.2, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 93.73371458333568, "small_mean_absolute_error": 130.91272812500247 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.011348115074090837, "return_12h": 0.011246276021063206, "return_24h": 0.010404082512080803, "close_vs_ema12": 0.008540749804135439, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009908688973148339, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.001838070725348473, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.001447158307501084, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:14.162005Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83840.08, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109289.51", "open_time": "2026-10-11T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T16:45:00.984915Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "154598.25", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5949.70", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3986.88", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,840.08" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:14.162005Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83840.08, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109814.91", "open_time": "2026-10-11T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T16:45:00.984915Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "155369.88", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6281.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1435.13", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,840.08" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 6281.69, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 205, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 96.35, "trading_fee": 3.58, "total_deployed": 99.92999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 205.0, "gross_pnl": 108.65, "net_pnl": 105.07000000000001, "roi": 1.0514360052036427, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 47.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 48.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 53.0, "net_pnl": 51.25, "roi": 1.0512820512820513, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T16:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00016851581974264285, "return_30m": 0.000998312942244839, "return_60m": 0.006129879765039314, "return_120m": 0.009534459842538423, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0006523444638606435, "close_vs_ema6": 0.002406150700534404, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004811569298504237, "ema3_slope": 0.0006527702949490344, "ema6_slope": 0.0009633875024193106, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00033057074618880744, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0027005826901312325, "return_acceleration": -0.0006611414923776149 } }, { "id": 224, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1730Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:31:17.934406Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111345", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111345-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111345-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:30:00Z", "strike": 83907.26, "brti_reference_price": 83907.261, "yes_ask": 0.35, "no_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 10949.58, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.35, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10949.58, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 273, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:31:18.153811Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.219405, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T17:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 96.68751562499529, "small_mean_absolute_error": 258.643661458329 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 183.88340104166673, "small_mean_absolute_error": 289.1808098958336 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 132.30992187500428, "small_mean_absolute_error": 210.17746527778218 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.1667802083357, "small_mean_absolute_error": 146.10303854166924 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.011164217097661355, "return_12h": 0.011174140264988086, "return_24h": 0.011163274752150398, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00834523221168082, "close_vs_ema24": 0.010116200643942808, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.002795787016978135, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0020102179021102007, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T17:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:15.06398Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T17:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T17:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83907.26, "last_price_dollars": "0.3500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T17:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T17:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "110022.63", "open_time": "2026-10-11T17:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T17:30:00.659278Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "166194.32", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7424.44", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5686.53", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,907.26" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T17:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:15.06398Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111345", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T17:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T17:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83907.26, "last_price_dollars": "0.3400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T17:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T17:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "113893.77", "open_time": "2026-10-11T17:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111345-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T17:30:00.659278Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "181818.99", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10949.58", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "999.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,907.26" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.34, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 10949.58, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.66, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 273, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 95.55, "trading_fee": 4.35, "total_deployed": 99.89999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 273.0, "gross_pnl": 177.45, "net_pnl": 173.10000000000002, "roi": 1.732732732732733, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 35.0, "trading_fee": 1.6, "total_deployed": 36.6, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 65.0, "net_pnl": 63.4, "roi": 1.7322404371584699, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0018961761794005216, "return_30m": 0.0007543551951931793, "return_60m": 0.000969904415865086, "return_120m": 0.010037424586762267, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007494325917376532, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0016647306344572677, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003726965858394715, "ema3_slope": 0.0007499946621813969, "ema6_slope": 0.0006663359617382625, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0015179180837429085, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010826769746612958, "return_acceleration": 0.003035836167485817 } }, { "id": 225, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1745Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:46:18.423883Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T18:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111400", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111400-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111400-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:45:00Z", "strike": 83916.46, "brti_reference_price": 83916.46216666666, "yes_ask": 0.4, "no_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 8648.06, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.4, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8648.06, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 239, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:46:18.613506Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.189623, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T18:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 80.98131770833061, "small_mean_absolute_error": 256.09566666666433 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 158.13304427083312, "small_mean_absolute_error": 290.991 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.9166666666666666, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 134.4853315972238, "small_mean_absolute_error": 230.11068750000172 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.2, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 91.23263229166841, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.72514062500196 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.011296663177052135, "return_12h": 0.011201622814059453, "return_24h": 0.010212115707878944, "close_vs_ema12": 0.008107872851269127, "close_vs_ema24": 0.010013966802082885, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0031086167246516805, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0022018530282037485, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:15.358592Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T18:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T18:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83916.46, "last_price_dollars": "0.4000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T18:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T18:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "93573.07", "open_time": "2026-10-11T17:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T17:45:00.745094Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "156836.84", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "0.01", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9849.47", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,916.46" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T18:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:15.358592Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T18:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T18:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83916.46, "last_price_dollars": "0.4000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T18:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T18:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "100982.60", "open_time": "2026-10-11T17:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T17:45:00.745094Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "177623.35", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8648.06", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1053.37", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,916.46" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.39, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 8648.06, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.61, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 239, "entry_price": 0.4, "gross_cost": 95.60000000000001, "trading_fee": 4.02, "total_deployed": 99.62, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.60000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.62, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.4, "gross_cost": 40.0, "trading_fee": 1.68, "total_deployed": 41.68, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -40.0, "net_pnl": -41.68, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T17:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00010965876560620202, "return_30m": 0.0020060428773460703, "return_60m": 0.0009110002023038355, "return_120m": 0.0070464642890493145, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.000429402304049864, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0012669090456189913, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0032448050502356107, "ema3_slope": 0.00042958676959847786, "ema6_slope": 0.0005070205578201481, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008932587068971598, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001083988075396565, "return_acceleration": -0.0017865174137943196 } }, { "id": 226, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261011T1830Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-11T18:31:17.862857Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-11T18:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111445", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111445-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111445-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-11T18:30:00Z", "strike": 83789.48, "brti_reference_price": 83789.476, "yes_ask": 0.5, "no_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 656.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 656.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-11T18:31:18.077018Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.214161, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-11T18:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 70.19951041666718, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.99027604166258 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 83.44351302083123, "small_mean_absolute_error": 207.8169687499958 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 145.98877083333355, "small_mean_absolute_error": 245.11729861110993 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 96.45372187500107, "small_mean_absolute_error": 159.75467187500107 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T18:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.00874583938647655, "return_12h": 0.00973182380166282, "return_24h": 0.010233447090636005, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005831038032566571, "close_vs_ema24": 0.007981222439654045, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0037550966908312944, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0025552195430624813, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:16.858681Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83789.48, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T18:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "77368.60", "open_time": "2026-10-11T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T18:30:00.635047Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "135802.81", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2065.96", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5137.55", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,789.48" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-11T18:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:16.858681Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111445", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-11T18:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-18T18:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83789.48, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-18T18:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-11T18:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "84729.03", "open_time": "2026-10-11T18:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT111445-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-11T18:30:00.635047Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "148975.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "656.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4439.36", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,789.48" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 656.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.51, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 193, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 96.5, "trading_fee": 3.38, "total_deployed": 99.88, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -96.5, "net_pnl": -99.88, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 50.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 51.75, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -50.0, "net_pnl": -51.75, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T18:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00045135615149738406, "return_30m": 0.00023308676427502562, "return_60m": -0.0014037521734859837, "return_120m": -0.0004352092630527382, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 6.2084889667080034e-06, "close_vs_ema6": 3.5549240817722705e-05, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0011299203172241423, "ema3_slope": 6.208527512319151e-06, "ema6_slope": 1.4219898529566066e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0003347635329677967, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008395594789486519, "return_acceleration": 0.0006695270659355934 } }, { "id": 227, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0000Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:01:15.757515Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112015", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112015-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112015-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:00:00Z", "strike": 83676.3, "brti_reference_price": 83676.30333333332, "yes_ask": 0.5, "no_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 4580.77, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4580.77, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:01:15.944688Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.187173, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 67.56479166666395, "small_mean_absolute_error": 130.66155729167076 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 79.22663281249515, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.27110937499856 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.16273611110712, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.68618055555271 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.35268958333108, "small_mean_absolute_error": 98.08746249999749 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T23:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.001117906834460003, "return_12h": 0.007137782515300062, "return_24h": 0.009197482179041927, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002565154208444609, "close_vs_ema24": 0.004657263488831109, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0006851099289084672, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00228437215825128, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:24.880076Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T00:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83676.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T00:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "108703.26", "open_time": "2026-10-12T00:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T00:00:01.016815Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "191889.89", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4526.84", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3560.47", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,676.30" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:24.880076Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112015", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T00:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83676.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T00:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "114331.91", "open_time": "2026-10-12T00:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112015-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T00:00:01.016815Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "205373.49", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4580.77", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3867.17", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,676.30" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 4580.77, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.51, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 193, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 96.5, "trading_fee": 3.38, "total_deployed": 99.88, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 193.0, "gross_pnl": 96.5, "net_pnl": 93.12, "roi": 0.932318782539047, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 50.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 51.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 50.0, "net_pnl": 48.25, "roi": 0.9323671497584541, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-11T23:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0008186052376581987, "return_30m": 0.0004670048650132763, "return_60m": 0.001434391548592373, "return_120m": 0.002910079903530871, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0004034856747314741, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0007529764431766228, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0010734085202956933, "ema3_slope": 0.00040364854113539295, "ema6_slope": 0.00030128132036533195, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005849590119080816, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00044542758936776946, "return_acceleration": 0.0011699180238161633 } }, { "id": 228, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:16:16.186208Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112030", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112030-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112030-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "strike": 83683.63, "brti_reference_price": 83683.62700000001, "yes_ask": 0.5, "no_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 8020.65, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8020.65, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:16:16.393615Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.207407, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T00:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 48.734541666661244, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.94068229166805 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 68.11414583332771, "small_mean_absolute_error": 137.57366145833112 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 74.38798958332943, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.5322239583317 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 59.739273958331616, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.51623437499802 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0008124872409265294, "return_12h": 0.0062258870991867, "return_24h": 0.008846461396955885, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0025443452632685215, "close_vs_ema24": 0.004646909164038648, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0007608555978870779, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002220033176481895, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T00:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:25.156737Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T00:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83683.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T00:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "114516.30", "open_time": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T00:15:00.606649Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "195247.48", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6564.36", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2836.86", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,683.63" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T00:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:25.156737Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112030", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T00:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83683.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T00:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "119840.46", "open_time": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112030-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T00:15:00.606649Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "214193.38", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8020.65", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "571.76", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,683.63" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.49, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 8020.65, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.51, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 193, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 96.5, "trading_fee": 3.38, "total_deployed": 99.88, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 193.0, "gross_pnl": 96.5, "net_pnl": 93.12, "roi": 0.932318782539047, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.5, "gross_cost": 50.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 51.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 50.0, "net_pnl": 48.25, "roi": 0.9323671497584541, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 8.752378361553959e-05, "return_30m": 0.0009062006687015067, "return_60m": 0.0008849637910453012, "return_120m": 0.0018063476737433248, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0002454621200242979, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0006002602191255146, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0009822313835925467, "ema3_slope": 0.00024552238646990965, "ema6_slope": 0.00024016175146823748, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00036554072702132956, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00042261585854394367, "return_acceleration": -0.0007310814540426591 } }, { "id": 229, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0030Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:31:16.730704Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112045", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112045-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112045-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:30:00Z", "strike": 83762.96, "brti_reference_price": 83762.96366666668, "yes_ask": 0.31, "no_ask": 0.7, "yes_ask_size": 6365.65, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.31, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6365.65, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 307, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:31:16.915854Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.18515, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T00:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.63507812499665, "small_mean_absolute_error": 162.76895312500346 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 69.48223697916728, "small_mean_absolute_error": 154.1946822916707 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.58908680555275, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.39087326388835 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.7924479166657, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.2697989583321 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00031641602978060845, "return_12h": 0.008426656032920032, "return_24h": 0.010428596779439303, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0033516887693267883, "close_vs_ema24": 0.005483296903846524, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.000930101869599298, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0021673252250145048, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T00:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:25.556196Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T00:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83762.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.3100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T00:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "88216.68", "open_time": "2026-10-12T00:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T00:30:00.574976Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "160077.66", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "501.35", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5202.15", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,762.96" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T00:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:25.556196Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112045", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T00:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83762.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.3000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T00:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T00:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "92784.38", "open_time": "2026-10-12T00:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112045-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T00:30:00.574976Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "172874.57", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6365.65", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4663.86", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,762.96" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.3, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.31, "yes_ask_size": 6365.65, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.7, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 307, "entry_price": 0.31, "gross_cost": 95.17, "trading_fee": 4.6, "total_deployed": 99.77, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.17, "net_pnl": -99.77, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.31, "gross_cost": 31.0, "trading_fee": 1.5, "total_deployed": 32.5, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -31.0, "net_pnl": -32.5, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0009480548287739143, "return_30m": 0.0010356615897351151, "return_60m": 0.001503150113749463, "return_120m": 0.002532491871772624, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0005965187831260543, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0011058564215109534, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0016336216830761252, "ema3_slope": 0.000596874830173233, "ema6_slope": 0.0004425383221424717, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004302655225791874, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005327636017105037, "return_acceleration": 0.0008605310451583748 } }, { "id": 230, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:01:19.886652Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112115-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:00:00Z", "strike": 83844.61, "brti_reference_price": 83844.61383333332, "yes_ask": 0.68, "no_ask": 0.33, "yes_ask_size": 5405.48, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.68, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5405.48, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 143, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:01:20.085456Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.198804, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T01:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.7485052083357, "small_mean_absolute_error": 194.7211614583357 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 78.15664843749983, "small_mean_absolute_error": 162.69135937500323 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 82.40059027777534, "small_mean_absolute_error": 152.42112673611095 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 71.67387499999896, "small_mean_absolute_error": 118.71939374999783 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.003150563724478417, "return_12h": 0.009695493748618889, "return_24h": 0.011761356078999086, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00402392393569273, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0062197001410790875, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0012044784668925335, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002150344510043256, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T01:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:26.099503Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T01:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83844.61, "last_price_dollars": "0.6800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T01:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "157788.34", "open_time": "2026-10-12T01:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T01:00:00.739367Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "255089.36", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7794.40", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2964.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,844.61" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T01:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:26.099503Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T01:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83844.61, "last_price_dollars": "0.6800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T01:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "173161.35", "open_time": "2026-10-12T01:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T01:00:00.739367Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "278393.42", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5405.48", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6392.53", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,844.61" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.67, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.68, "yes_ask_size": 5405.48, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.33, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 143, "entry_price": 0.68, "gross_cost": 97.24000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.18, "total_deployed": 99.42000000000002, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 143.0, "gross_pnl": 45.75999999999999, "net_pnl": 43.579999999999984, "roi": 0.43834238583785934, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.68, "gross_cost": 68.0, "trading_fee": 1.53, "total_deployed": 69.53, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 32.0, "net_pnl": 30.47, "roi": 0.43822810297713216, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T00:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0010604221179641993, "return_30m": 0.0009747764774843404, "return_60m": 0.0020114476057757624, "return_120m": 0.0034487243578142923, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00065760932292247, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0012777048698389137, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00200573872919918, "ema3_slope": 0.0006580420575144075, "ema6_slope": 0.0005113432862584588, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005729885170592808, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005069048209594952, "return_acceleration": 0.0011459770341185616 } }, { "id": 231, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0115Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:16:17.041726Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112130", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112130-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112130-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:15:00Z", "strike": 83858.12, "brti_reference_price": 83858.12366666665, "yes_ask": 0.42, "no_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 3036.97, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.42, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3036.97, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 228, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:16:17.314259Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.272533, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T01:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 85.19493749999674, "small_mean_absolute_error": 161.35118749999674 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 66.96473958332899, "small_mean_absolute_error": 149.1459348958324 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.80774305555072, "small_mean_absolute_error": 145.49950347221966 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 68.43558645833181, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.3600114583307 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0029030083328460687, "return_12h": 0.010126883094827566, "return_24h": 0.011455002293836447, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004014170950563001, "close_vs_ema24": 0.006249398084520852, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0013144656765471385, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0021659312136026454, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T01:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:26.367869Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T01:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83858.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T01:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "123129.96", "open_time": "2026-10-12T01:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T01:15:00.640354Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "193466.32", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10495.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1146.12", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,858.12" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T01:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:26.367869Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T01:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83858.12, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T01:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "141387.82", "open_time": "2026-10-12T01:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:15 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T01:15:00.640354Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "231292.47", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3036.97", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3077.01", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,858.12" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.41, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 3036.97, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.59, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 228, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 95.75999999999999, "trading_fee": 3.89, "total_deployed": 99.64999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.75999999999999, "net_pnl": -99.64999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 42.0, "trading_fee": 1.71, "total_deployed": 43.71, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -42.0, "net_pnl": -43.71, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00016112941208357157, "return_30m": 0.001221722395239988, "return_60m": 0.002085194833472581, "return_120m": 0.002972003946442703, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0004092547895480081, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0010274633809503886, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0018331660714938636, "ema3_slope": 0.0004094223476047709, "ema6_slope": 0.0004111543307876442, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00044964635294031385, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0004926377355179093, "return_acceleration": -0.0008992927058806277 } }, { "id": 232, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0130Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:31:16.445254Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112145", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112145-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112145-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:30:00Z", "strike": 83695.59, "brti_reference_price": 83695.58516666666, "yes_ask": 0.41, "no_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 702.64, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 702.64, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:31:16.633096Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.187842, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T01:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.5596822916632, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.7999166666632 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.09738020832992, "small_mean_absolute_error": 145.78443489583333 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.84138541666591, "small_mean_absolute_error": 145.7297604166682 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 74.13202604166509, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.80762291666397 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0012095855869636019, "return_12h": 0.008299955094151379, "return_24h": 0.009069353558887938, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0019835534997696413, "close_vs_ema24": 0.004210027571084574, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0013312921287269575, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0021461185250466475, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T01:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:26.625794Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T01:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83695.59, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T01:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "183960.20", "open_time": "2026-10-12T01:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T01:30:00.562453Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "248147.31", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5899.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1817.89", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,695.59" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T01:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-10T20:01:26.625794Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T01:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83695.59, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T01:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T01:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "188917.71", "open_time": "2026-10-12T01:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:45 PM EDT on Oct 11, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:30 PM EDT on October 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT112145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T01:30:00.562453Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "256948.47", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "702.64", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6924.67", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,695.59" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.4, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 702.64, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.6, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 234, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 95.94, "trading_fee": 3.97, "total_deployed": 99.91, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.94, "net_pnl": -99.91, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 41.0, "trading_fee": 1.7, "total_deployed": 42.7, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -41.0, "net_pnl": -42.7, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T01:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.001938255864704086, "return_30m": -0.0017774387626485755, "return_60m": -0.0008043948906601983, "return_120m": 0.0006975460968179359, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0007654826733471953, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0006521586304678584, "close_vs_ema12": -9.193017647857182e-05, "ema3_slope": -0.0007648971578260166, "ema6_slope": -0.000260795420193638, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0010496926383938288, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0010901500149137976, "return_acceleration": -0.0020993852767876575 } }, { "id": 233, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0500Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:01:16.948199Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120115-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:00:00Z", "strike": 84054.35, "brti_reference_price": 84054.34516666668, "yes_ask": 0.43, "no_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 1475.32, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.43, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 1475.32, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 223, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:01:17.146138Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.197939, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T05:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 187.9076458333402, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.43660937500317 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 143.0992421875053, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.2966119791672 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 125.94832812500317, "small_mean_absolute_error": 140.73746006944444 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 106.91278645833518, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.1640479166672 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T04:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.00595877991498539, "return_12h": 0.0025086148220441196, "return_24h": 0.013523284908717681, "close_vs_ema12": 0.005480221278442832, "close_vs_ema24": 0.007504671744801739, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.000758755726972371, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002039526776622669, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:42.950429Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84054.35, "last_price_dollars": "0.4000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T05:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "150870.47", "open_time": "2026-10-12T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T05:00:00.580468Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "233076.26", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "11361.46", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3822.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,054.35" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T05:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:42.950429Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T05:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T05:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 84054.35, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T05:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T05:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "167168.23", "open_time": "2026-10-12T05:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T05:00:00.580468Z", "volume_24h_fp": "223345.09", "volume_fp": "260705.60", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1475.32", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9605.76", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $84,054.35" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.42, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 1475.32, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.58, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 223, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 95.89, "trading_fee": 3.83, "total_deployed": 99.72, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 223.0, "gross_pnl": 127.11, "net_pnl": 123.28, "roi": 1.2362615322904131, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.43, "gross_cost": 43.0, "trading_fee": 1.72, "total_deployed": 44.72, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 57.0, "net_pnl": 55.28, "roi": 1.2361359570661896, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T04:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0007663572991378764, "return_30m": 0.005561502466340684, "return_60m": 0.006391372344469071, "return_120m": 0.003730885602204248, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0017216903871348777, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0031795369117755268, "close_vs_ema12": 0.004015458378976655, "ema3_slope": 0.001724659717191157, "ema6_slope": 0.001273434337302204, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0020125579438072805, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002074674014348297, "return_acceleration": -0.004025115887614561 } }, { "id": 234, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0530Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:31:15.909228Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120145", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120145-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120145-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:30:00Z", "strike": 83927.99, "brti_reference_price": 83927.98966666668, "yes_ask": 0.16, "no_ask": 0.85, "yes_ask_size": 9073.81, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.16, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 9073.81, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 590, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:31:16.090809Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.181581, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 237.54860416666997, "small_mean_absolute_error": 214.40602604166997 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 173.82343489583764, "small_mean_absolute_error": 148.07313281250208 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 141.28552256944627, "small_mean_absolute_error": 126.13715451388755 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 122.74864895833453, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.38584791666653 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.003476266293214847, "return_12h": 0.0002470425851068825, "return_24h": 0.011423943338592313, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003557921260390673, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0056964521972593385, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0009845120561680076, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0021527493976372103, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:45.561468Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T05:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T05:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83927.99, "last_price_dollars": "0.1800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T05:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.8200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.8100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T05:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "128081.52", "open_time": "2026-10-12T05:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T05:30:00.576359Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "194974.42", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.1900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9651.47", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.1800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "313.04", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,927.99" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:45.561468Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120145", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T05:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T05:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83927.99, "last_price_dollars": "0.1500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T05:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.8500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.8400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T05:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "144447.55", "open_time": "2026-10-12T05:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:30 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120145-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T05:30:00.576359Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "214210.94", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.1600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9073.81", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.1500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2923.07", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,927.99" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.15, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.16, "yes_ask_size": 9073.81, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.85, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 590, "entry_price": 0.16, "gross_cost": 94.4, "trading_fee": 5.56, "total_deployed": 99.96000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -94.4, "net_pnl": -99.96000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.16, "gross_cost": 16.0, "trading_fee": 0.95, "total_deployed": 16.95, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -16.0, "net_pnl": -16.95, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.002334657803210183, "return_30m": -0.0015032595846111718, "return_60m": 0.004049882499842061, "return_120m": 0.004350729071525006, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0005307993794994026, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00037394587582850747, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0014874453945219468, "ema3_slope": -0.0005305177809902251, "ema6_slope": 0.00014960072736158736, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001584000797197005, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002528674369408894, "return_acceleration": -0.00316800159439401 } }, { "id": 235, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:46:18.248327Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120200-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "strike": 83856.91, "brti_reference_price": 83856.90666666668, "yes_ask": 0.56, "no_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 5875.3, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.56, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5875.3, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 173, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:46:18.452305Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.203978, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 147.78230729166899, "small_mean_absolute_error": 136.27449479166899 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 167.95867187500335, "small_mean_absolute_error": 151.55790885416718 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 145.22788715278026, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.38811284722154 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 122.3763395833339, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.3955697916659 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.002978729059667007, "return_12h": -0.0007096998427043033, "return_24h": 0.010483973181405926, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0025971397576487476, "close_vs_ema24": 0.004744305710617347, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00097526970708528, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002169843334196564, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:45.900656Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83856.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "139241.74", "open_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00.637205Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "206255.44", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "13065.11", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5840.67", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,856.91" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:45.900656Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83856.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "149479.24", "open_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T05:45:00.637205Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "229385.60", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5875.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6396.33", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,856.91" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 5875.3, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.45, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 173, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 96.88000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.99, "total_deployed": 99.87, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 173.0, "gross_pnl": 76.11999999999999, "net_pnl": 73.13, "roi": 0.7322519275057574, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.56, "gross_cost": 56.00000000000001, "trading_fee": 1.73, "total_deployed": 57.730000000000004, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 43.99999999999999, "net_pnl": 42.269999999999996, "roi": 0.7322016282695305, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T05:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0008469522537394303, "return_30m": -0.003179632713261382, "return_60m": -0.0015843814763987218, "return_120m": 0.004285462669010531, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0006891256028142001, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0003381336505708932, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0005408365661194736, "ema3_slope": -0.0006886510357539954, "ema6_slope": -0.00013523516920377343, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007438527747353763, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013061500265835265, "return_acceleration": 0.0014877055494707525 } }, { "id": 236, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0615Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:16:17.475941Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120230", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120230-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120230-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "strike": 83781.29, "brti_reference_price": 83781.29333333332, "yes_ask": 0.32, "no_ask": 0.69, "yes_ask_size": 6586.09, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.32, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6586.09, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 298, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:16:17.674413Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.198472, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 143.65206249999756, "small_mean_absolute_error": 119.14815624999756 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 180.84333593750307, "small_mean_absolute_error": 172.97614843750307 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 151.14226736111473, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.15340451388934 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 128.47016250000235, "small_mean_absolute_error": 133.51361145833434 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0011670901087175167, "return_12h": 0.0003536546219686798, "return_24h": 0.00986347243539254, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0014921267314826903, "close_vs_ema24": 0.003647274484853913, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0010660483596758308, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0021643409345109, "score": 3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:48.128317Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83781.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.3100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T06:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "100115.76", "open_time": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T06:15:00.733478Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "152311.04", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3755.85", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3147.04", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,781.29" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:48.128317Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83781.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.3200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T06:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "107046.79", "open_time": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T06:15:00.733478Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "165432.27", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6586.09", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4750.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,781.29" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.31, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.32, "yes_ask_size": 6586.09, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.69, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 298, "entry_price": 0.32, "gross_cost": 95.36, "trading_fee": 4.54, "total_deployed": 99.9, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.36, "net_pnl": -99.9, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.32, "gross_cost": 32.0, "trading_fee": 1.53, "total_deployed": 33.53, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -32.0, "net_pnl": -33.53, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0016619644799877875, "return_30m": -0.0009016947600264391, "return_60m": -0.004078460415131491, "return_120m": 0.004039151921106265, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0008137030846900872, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0009719901955802523, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00047529316498784446, "ema3_slope": -0.0008130415103052568, "ema6_slope": -0.00038864497459012437, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001211749922337746, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001155882376333159, "return_acceleration": -0.002423499844675492 } }, { "id": 237, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T0630Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:31:16.225479Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120245-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "strike": 83677.18, "brti_reference_price": 83677.17716666668, "yes_ask": 0.78, "no_ask": 0.23, "yes_ask_size": 6000.1, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.23, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 412, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:31:16.415773Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.190294, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 105.43721874999756, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.99581249999756 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.625, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 171.49291145833377, "small_mean_absolute_error": 158.20091927083377 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 151.02802951389094, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.71402604166724 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.12415625000139, "small_mean_absolute_error": 131.0250270833334 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0010241578884599978, "return_12h": -0.0013402498582676392, "return_24h": 0.008378530867924505, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0002374518422714189, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002350411802071628, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0010776093513280571, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002098228441425931, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T06:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:49.31275Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83677.18, "last_price_dollars": "0.7800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T06:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "79639.81", "open_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00.658311Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "121791.61", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4396.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9472.52", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,677.18" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T06:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:49.31275Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T06:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83677.18, "last_price_dollars": "0.7700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T06:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T06:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "80254.08", "open_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T06:30:00.658311Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "122427.39", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6000.10", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8262.49", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,677.18" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.77, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.78, "yes_ask_size": 6000.1, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.23, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T06:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0012427137672893496, "return_30m": -0.002902612901137136, "return_60m": -0.0029884249699789756, "return_120m": 0.0010493547598751096, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0010287600856241363, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0015820691562913325, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0014535824523405072, "ema3_slope": -0.0010277028259768617, "ema6_slope": -0.0006324274449348577, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00020962535634921897, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009176819221360851, "return_acceleration": 0.00041925071269843794 } }, { "id": 238, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T1030Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:31:15.926628Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120645", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120645-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120645-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:30:00Z", "strike": 83406.83, "brti_reference_price": 83406.83283333336, "yes_ask": 0.45, "no_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 3951.3, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.45, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3951.3, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 213, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:31:16.105662Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.179034, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T10:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 83.93110416665513, "small_mean_absolute_error": 78.7791614583366 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.69795312499991, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.17256250000355 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 119.19446874999994, "small_mean_absolute_error": 115.58509375000237 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 129.2958187499993, "small_mean_absolute_error": 126.24972500000077 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0021848368035815025, "return_12h": -0.0017299257427093595, "return_24h": 0.005920830493851836, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0027874670081909914, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0014458521301812244, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0009818975486054482, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0014952250043220872, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T10:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:57.187623Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T10:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T10:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83406.83, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T10:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T10:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "40024.26", "open_time": "2026-10-12T10:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T10:30:00.696629Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "68128.44", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4204.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7319.35", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,406.83" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T10:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:57.187623Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T10:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T10:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83406.83, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T10:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T10:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "39859.97", "open_time": "2026-10-12T10:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T10:30:00.696629Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "65732.55", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3951.30", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7674.63", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,406.83" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.44, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 3951.3, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.56, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 213, "entry_price": 0.45, "gross_cost": 95.85000000000001, "trading_fee": 3.7, "total_deployed": 99.55000000000001, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 213.0, "gross_pnl": 117.14999999999999, "net_pnl": 113.44999999999999, "roi": 1.1396283274736312, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.45, "gross_cost": 45.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 46.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 55.0, "net_pnl": 53.26, "roi": 1.1394950791613179, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00030763192047522647, "return_30m": -0.0006030698623068487, "return_60m": 0.0005988885528689369, "return_120m": -0.002143250218296089, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -8.064546369068726e-05, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0003694779058861508, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001434299847998588, "ema3_slope": -8.063896052445951e-05, "ema6_slope": -0.0001477693233543631, "realized_volatility_30m": 6.0515322670706695e-06, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011076971949723503, "return_acceleration": -1.2103064534141339e-05 } }, { "id": 239, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T1045Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:46:18.433911Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120700", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120700-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120700-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:45:00Z", "strike": 83425.34, "brti_reference_price": 83425.34316666666, "yes_ask": 0.66, "no_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 2375.58, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.66, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 2375.58, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 147, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:46:18.617735Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183824, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T11:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 65.4322552083213, "small_mean_absolute_error": 106.95218750000276 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.50686197916366, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.2951484375044 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 105.20993402777701, "small_mean_absolute_error": 110.78936111111277 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.90323229166606, "small_mean_absolute_error": 129.26885729166753 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.006722655184699056, "return_12h": -0.001954362913482499, "return_24h": 0.006345171705001151, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0024616740872207554, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0011990495661866607, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0011655149699495437, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0013246053141735548, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:57.502583Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T11:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T11:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83425.34, "last_price_dollars": "0.6500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T11:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T11:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "40446.16", "open_time": "2026-10-12T10:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T10:45:00.567371Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "57719.63", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3786.47", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8534.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,425.34" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T11:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:57.502583Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120700", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T11:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T11:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83425.34, "last_price_dollars": "0.6500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T11:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T11:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "40706.04", "open_time": "2026-10-12T10:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120700-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T10:45:00.567371Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "59828.36", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2375.58", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9918.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,425.34" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.65, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 2375.58, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.35, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 147, "entry_price": 0.66, "gross_cost": 97.02000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.31, "total_deployed": 99.33000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -97.02000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.33000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.66, "gross_cost": 66.0, "trading_fee": 1.58, "total_deployed": 67.58, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -66.0, "net_pnl": -67.58, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T10:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00022192826060529747, "return_30m": -8.577193208703093e-05, "return_60m": 0.001650362015022555, "return_120m": -0.0011562713509949418, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 7.062746111308194e-05, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00010545562164598898, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0010263136992472166, "ema3_slope": 7.063244970351157e-05, "ema6_slope": -4.218046939152842e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00026478009054026197, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009592090687456001, "return_acceleration": 0.0005295601810805239 } }, { "id": 240, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T1115Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:16:15.955086Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120730", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120730-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120730-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:15:00Z", "strike": 83332.02, "brti_reference_price": 83332.02316666667, "yes_ask": 0.63, "no_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 7457.76, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.63, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7457.76, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 154, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:16:16.149313Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.194227, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T11:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.85623958332508, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.07134895833951 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 92.15339062499515, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.63789843750237 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.88506076388997, "small_mean_absolute_error": 104.71639583333672 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 122.98506249999919, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.28151979166724 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.009419006237168626, "return_12h": -0.003320338997690686, "return_24h": 0.00486383447867067, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003334311449511018, "close_vs_ema24": -0.002243691090699662, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0014586917165967384, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0009212502412530021, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T11:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:58.155689Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T11:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T11:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83332.02, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T11:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T11:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "56209.80", "open_time": "2026-10-12T11:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T11:15:00.523008Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "89555.96", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8427.20", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3.65", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,332.02" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T11:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:58.155689Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T11:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T11:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83332.02, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T11:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T11:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "59464.25", "open_time": "2026-10-12T11:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T11:15:00.523008Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "95241.39", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7457.76", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "811.22", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,332.02" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.62, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 7457.76, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.38, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 154, "entry_price": 0.63, "gross_cost": 97.02, "trading_fee": 2.52, "total_deployed": 99.53999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 154.0, "gross_pnl": 56.980000000000004, "net_pnl": 54.46000000000001, "roi": 0.5471167369901548, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.63, "gross_cost": 63.0, "trading_fee": 1.64, "total_deployed": 64.64, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 37.0, "net_pnl": 35.36, "roi": 0.5470297029702971, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0010768939982753745, "return_30m": -0.0011186049281638466, "return_60m": -0.0012042809153448575, "return_120m": -0.0018712871947687004, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0005315200849679291, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0008445231357498972, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0016757123088220194, "ema3_slope": -0.0005312377214489183, "ema6_slope": -0.00033769517774373536, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005175690508562591, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0004854680521376546, "return_acceleration": -0.0010351381017125183 } }, { "id": 241, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T1145Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:46:18.720605Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120800", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120800-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120800-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:45:00Z", "strike": 83299.08, "brti_reference_price": 83299.08166666668, "yes_ask": 0.42, "no_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 6350.59, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.42, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6350.59, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 228, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:46:18.904888Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.184283, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T12:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.02640624999913, "small_mean_absolute_error": 75.95382291667192 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 70.22933072916021, "small_mean_absolute_error": 91.45300520833734 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 85.34671006944215, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.5147065972269 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 116.61981145833197, "small_mean_absolute_error": 118.87638854166798 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0066521056186507055, "return_12h": -0.003693191379297911, "return_24h": 0.0038564682088642055, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0034579340965843475, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0025445814534306166, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0015582786909043023, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0006073252012301911, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:58.814944Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83299.08, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "74026.65", "open_time": "2026-10-12T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T11:45:00.525012Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "125961.40", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1978.56", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8023.36", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,299.08" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T12:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:58.814944Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120800", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T12:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83299.08, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T12:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "71743.22", "open_time": "2026-10-12T11:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:45 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120800-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T11:45:00.525012Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "139719.85", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6350.59", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3037.77", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,299.08" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.41, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 6350.59, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.59, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 228, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 95.75999999999999, "trading_fee": 3.89, "total_deployed": 99.64999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 228.0, "gross_pnl": 132.24, "net_pnl": 128.35000000000002, "roi": 1.2880080280983446, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.42, "gross_cost": 42.0, "trading_fee": 1.71, "total_deployed": 43.71, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 58.0, "net_pnl": 56.29, "roi": 1.2878059940517044, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0006876016911046001, "return_30m": -0.0003953042149726915, "return_60m": -0.0015134669538935386, "return_120m": 0.00013439729275721568, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00040372404369448667, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0007730049006456907, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0015724950761054624, "ema3_slope": -0.00040356111636852265, "ema6_slope": -0.00030910638395842405, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004900501448837913, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005354749591774434, "return_acceleration": -0.0009801002897675826 } }, { "id": 242, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T1200Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:01:16.391049Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120815", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120815-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120815-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:00:00Z", "strike": 83317.15, "brti_reference_price": 83317.14633333335, "yes_ask": 0.41, "no_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 7615.41, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.41, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7615.41, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 234, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:01:16.574283Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183234, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T12:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 78.40666666666948, "small_mean_absolute_error": 66.42197395834228 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 63.41861197916478, "small_mean_absolute_error": 80.65302864584191 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.59617187500044, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.54932465278519 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 103.67331458333356, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.65801666666957 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0071927409306314916, "return_12h": -0.004292218772729783, "return_24h": 0.0028149268184625154, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0031099112294218356, "close_vs_ema24": -0.002280372761567895, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.001549178243742011, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00044563087353899355, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:59.145197Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83317.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "62245.33", "open_time": "2026-10-12T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T12:00:00.913579Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "98715.54", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "770.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9300.27", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,317.15" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:59.145197Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83317.15, "last_price_dollars": "0.4100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "64318.79", "open_time": "2026-10-12T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T12:00:00.913579Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "100929.39", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7615.41", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "500.13", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,317.15" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.4, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 7615.41, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.6, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 234, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 95.94, "trading_fee": 3.97, "total_deployed": 99.91, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.94, "net_pnl": -99.91, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.41, "gross_cost": 41.0, "trading_fee": 1.7, "total_deployed": 42.7, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -41.0, "net_pnl": -42.7, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T11:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00021686513590823964, "return_30m": -0.0004708856720305743, "return_60m": -0.0012552265527492334, "return_120m": -0.0016777109885789399, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -9.348196878944393e-05, "close_vs_ema6": -0.000397425599193868, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0011475994444730686, "ema3_slope": -9.347323072805835e-05, "ema6_slope": -0.0001589449721572933, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004522334135064199, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0005855005615984125, "return_acceleration": 0.0009044668270128398 } }, { "id": 243, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261012T1215Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:16:16.519958Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120830", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120830-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120830-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:15:00Z", "strike": 83285.74, "brti_reference_price": 83285.73983333331, "yes_ask": 0.3, "no_ask": 0.71, "yes_ask_size": 8225.51, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.3, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8225.51, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 317, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:16:16.725364Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.205406, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-12T12:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 44.99898437500815, "small_mean_absolute_error": 73.05426562500361 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.625, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 60.42761197916661, "small_mean_absolute_error": 84.56280729167156 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.43525520833282, "small_mean_absolute_error": 88.77668750000278 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.68266562500139, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.14096041666853 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.005914846623677583, "return_12h": -0.004754659673949058, "return_24h": 0.0014416254509124204, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0033438928430400416, "close_vs_ema24": -0.002601834776800205, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0015848632952989439, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0003140084043218305, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T12:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:59.462782Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T12:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83285.74, "last_price_dollars": "0.3100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T12:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "78334.91", "open_time": "2026-10-12T12:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T12:15:00.530933Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "98632.57", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10406.25", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3316.42", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,285.74" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-12T12:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-11T20:00:59.462782Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-12T12:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83285.74, "last_price_dollars": "0.3000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-19T12:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-12T12:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "81773.20", "open_time": "2026-10-12T12:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on Oct 12, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on October 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT120830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-12T12:15:00.530933Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "102400.40", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8225.51", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "518.99", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,285.74" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.29, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.3, "yes_ask_size": 8225.51, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.71, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 317, "entry_price": 0.3, "gross_cost": 95.1, "trading_fee": 4.66, "total_deployed": 99.75999999999999, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.1, "net_pnl": -99.75999999999999, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.3, "gross_cost": 30.0, "trading_fee": 1.47, "total_deployed": 31.47, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -30.0, "net_pnl": -31.47, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-12T12:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0003769512205133996, "return_30m": -0.000160167832182756, "return_60m": -0.000555408732136331, "return_120m": -0.0017590207793448664, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00023525430715221063, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0005531416518037569, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0012899408369245746, "ema3_slope": -0.00023519897558044178, "ema6_slope": -0.00022120771704081665, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0002969081782108196, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00040939451329716355, "return_acceleration": -0.0005938163564216392 } }, { "id": 244, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261013T0545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-13T05:46:17.965049Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130200-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-13T05:45:00Z", "strike": 83503.91, "brti_reference_price": 83503.91183333332, "yes_ask": 0.44, "no_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 7798.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.44, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7798.57, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 218, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-13T05:46:18.136488Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.171439, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.93208333333678, "small_mean_absolute_error": 108.8076250000122 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.30645052083855, "small_mean_absolute_error": 95.61824479167626 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.14042187500309, "small_mean_absolute_error": 112.55271180556156 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.86739270833496, "small_mean_absolute_error": 134.26621041666948 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T05:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.02177156774610367, "return_12h": 0.013872780472118817, "return_24h": -0.004209490277724215, "close_vs_ema12": 0.009136458511698198, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00816537762519931, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004038731791228045, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.001011500573384172, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:00:59.491548Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83503.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "153602.84", "open_time": "2026-10-13T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T05:45:00.589033Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "238596.48", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5692.44", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8074.13", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,503.91" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:00:59.491548Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T06:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83503.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.4400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T06:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "155840.79", "open_time": "2026-10-13T05:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:45 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T05:45:00.589033Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "241511.53", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7798.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1043.18", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,503.91" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 7798.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.57, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 218, "entry_price": 0.44, "gross_cost": 95.92, "trading_fee": 3.77, "total_deployed": 99.69, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 218.0, "gross_pnl": 122.08, "net_pnl": 118.31, "roi": 1.1867790149463338, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.44, "gross_cost": 44.0, "trading_fee": 1.73, "total_deployed": 45.73, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 56.0, "net_pnl": 54.27, "roi": 1.1867483052700636, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T05:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0017688007520504367, "return_30m": -0.0002545380366404393, "return_60m": 0.0018889701585189655, "return_120m": 0.004613016992399244, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00019508405701107456, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0008633525720578294, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0035485620628232795, "ema3_slope": -0.00019504600664477234, "ema6_slope": 0.0003454603304489101, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00164287332124613, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0014765200897244148, "return_acceleration": -0.00328574664249226 } }, { "id": 245, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261013T0600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:01:15.966028Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130215-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z", "strike": 83580.59, "brti_reference_price": 83580.58749999998, "yes_ask": 0.34, "no_ask": 0.67, "yes_ask_size": 10110.81, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.34, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 10110.81, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 281, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:01:16.149773Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.183745, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 139.6202447916694, "small_mean_absolute_error": 135.8878229166694 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.77093750000495, "small_mean_absolute_error": 109.27999739584266 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 122.54312673611396, "small_mean_absolute_error": 112.30046875000578 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 155.94145520833337, "small_mean_absolute_error": 139.72785104166906 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T05:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.02226731376648683, "return_12h": 0.014070466518859792, "return_24h": -0.004053575535336473, "close_vs_ema12": 0.009648375545791232, "close_vs_ema24": 0.008901968226567414, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004227547951237032, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0005380689550521511, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:00:59.778901Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83580.59, "last_price_dollars": "0.3300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "192438.50", "open_time": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T06:00:00.629072Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "267617.62", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6072.62", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4847.58", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,580.59" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:00:59.778901Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83580.59, "last_price_dollars": "0.3300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "201510.74", "open_time": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T06:00:00.629072Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "281132.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10110.81", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7954.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,580.59" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.33, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.34, "yes_ask_size": 10110.81, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.67, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 281, "entry_price": 0.34, "gross_cost": 95.54, "trading_fee": 4.42, "total_deployed": 99.96000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.54, "net_pnl": -99.96000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.34, "gross_cost": 34.0, "trading_fee": 1.58, "total_deployed": 35.58, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -34.0, "net_pnl": -35.58, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T05:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0009182284396411777, "return_30m": -0.0008521964755637823, "return_60m": 0.0027082129073361383, "return_120m": 0.004363438584659818, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00036135200297970904, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0012724761109776939, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0037797497301215177, "ema3_slope": 0.0003614826254503267, "ema6_slope": 0.0005092496475955777, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0013435145958458072, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0014673693445874433, "return_acceleration": 0.0026870291916916145 } }, { "id": 246, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261013T0615Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:16:16.926863Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130230", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130230-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130230-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "strike": 83531.59, "brti_reference_price": 83531.59466666669, "yes_ask": 0.4, "no_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 5125.54, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.4, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5125.54, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 239, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:16:17.121169Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.194306, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-13T06:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 93.0769739583302, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.04227604167318 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.07557552083381, "small_mean_absolute_error": 105.813380208343 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.87438368055639, "small_mean_absolute_error": 113.25557638889586 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 133.02187812499977, "small_mean_absolute_error": 118.73922500000408 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.02568591814903942, "return_12h": 0.01358857626627863, "return_24h": -0.0029803629990907687, "close_vs_ema12": 0.008683680252802084, "close_vs_ema24": 0.008137807183811852, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004434194850667206, "ema24_slope_6h": -6.636289167527565e-06, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T06:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:00.070568Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T06:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83531.59, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T06:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "174056.76", "open_time": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T06:15:00.484744Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "270009.07", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4889.09", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8737.96", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,531.59" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T06:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:00.070568Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T06:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83531.59, "last_price_dollars": "0.4000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T06:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "173965.30", "open_time": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T06:15:00.484744Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "269347.20", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5125.54", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8761.58", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,531.59" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.39, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 5125.54, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.61, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 239, "entry_price": 0.4, "gross_cost": 95.60000000000001, "trading_fee": 4.02, "total_deployed": 99.62, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 239.0, "gross_pnl": 143.39999999999998, "net_pnl": 139.38, "roi": 1.3991166432443283, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.4, "gross_cost": 40.0, "trading_fee": 1.68, "total_deployed": 41.68, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 60.0, "net_pnl": 58.32, "roi": 1.399232245681382, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0005861747900886005, "return_30m": 0.00033151540718989736, "return_60m": 7.689298726853977e-05, "return_120m": 0.0036930705987208157, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.00011252996283928063, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0004895865514178421, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002699055807104722, "ema3_slope": -0.00011251730127170845, "ema6_slope": 0.0001958729792777003, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0007522016148648891, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0012859740788101926, "return_acceleration": -0.0015044032297297782 } }, { "id": 247, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261013T0630Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:31:16.248430Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130245-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:30:00Z", "strike": 83622.76, "brti_reference_price": 83622.762, "yes_ask": 0.35, "no_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 7727.99, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.35, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7727.99, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 273, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:31:16.426049Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.177619, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-13T06:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 109.12285937499473, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.21902083333771 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 105.19957812499706, "small_mean_absolute_error": 111.90906250000626 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 114.2632222222237, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.3175920138965 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 127.45092604166567, "small_mean_absolute_error": 117.51124166666996 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.027867203878007007, "return_12h": 0.014911579103247252, "return_24h": -0.0006502987852743392, "close_vs_ema12": 0.009381452264519474, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009045902192322375, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004634718204629129, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0005578739383960141, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T06:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:00.341429Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T06:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83622.76, "last_price_dollars": "0.4500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T06:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "141887.93", "open_time": "2026-10-13T06:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T06:30:00.599484Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "223885.21", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4034.20", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6902.94", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,622.76" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T06:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:00.341429Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T06:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83622.76, "last_price_dollars": "0.3500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T06:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T06:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "157000.87", "open_time": "2026-10-13T06:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T06:30:00.599484Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "251719.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7727.99", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5597.46", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,622.76" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.34, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 7727.99, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.66, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 273, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 95.55, "trading_fee": 4.35, "total_deployed": 99.89999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 273.0, "gross_pnl": 177.45, "net_pnl": 173.10000000000002, "roi": 1.732732732732733, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.35, "gross_cost": 35.0, "trading_fee": 1.6, "total_deployed": 36.6, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 65.0, "net_pnl": 63.4, "roi": 1.7322404371584699, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0010914113838855766, "return_30m": 0.0005045968359580488, "return_60m": -0.0003480296552508255, "return_120m": 0.004270136797642765, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.000489139927325688, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0011291556836969807, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0032079388161563305, "ema3_slope": 0.0004893793022817672, "ema6_slope": 0.00045186636446836737, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008387930869870885, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0011701244668402954, "return_acceleration": 0.001677586173974177 } }, { "id": 248, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261013T0645Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:46:18.846901Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130300-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:45:00Z", "strike": 83628.91, "brti_reference_price": 83628.91483333331, "yes_ask": 0.54, "no_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 251.92, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 251.92, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:46:19.025446Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.178545, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-13T07:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 81.71233854165257, "small_mean_absolute_error": 86.35928124999555 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.82221093749467, "small_mean_absolute_error": 97.58345312500387 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 94.10841319444323, "small_mean_absolute_error": 92.53192361111603 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 118.21381874999861, "small_mean_absolute_error": 102.3503062500029 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.02797501556845705, "return_12h": 0.015114015424786409, "return_24h": -0.0031559726967600454, "close_vs_ema12": 0.009066274085150594, "close_vs_ema24": 0.008930440355669811, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004695677440646584, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0011133319901406313, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T07:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:00.619133Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T07:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T07:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83628.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T07:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T07:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "130071.78", "open_time": "2026-10-13T06:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T06:45:00.501386Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "217523.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7187.65", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6922.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,628.91" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T07:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:00.619133Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T07:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T07:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83628.91, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T07:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T07:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "157894.39", "open_time": "2026-10-13T06:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T06:45:00.501386Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "259566.01", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "251.92", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8425.11", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,628.91" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.53, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 251.92, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.47, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 179, "entry_price": 0.54, "gross_cost": 96.66000000000001, "trading_fee": 3.12, "total_deployed": 99.78000000000002, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 179.0, "gross_pnl": 82.33999999999999, "net_pnl": 79.21999999999998, "roi": 0.793946682701944, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.54, "gross_cost": 54.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 55.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 46.0, "net_pnl": 44.26, "roi": 0.7940437746681018, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T06:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 7.357845144251307e-05, "return_30m": 0.0011650701396876961, "return_60m": 0.001496971785579282, "return_120m": 0.0033887696791294886, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.000281298033614652, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0008588599971639521, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0027754668873241073, "ema3_slope": 0.0002813771844634161, "ema6_slope": 0.0003436620619046149, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0005089164662215317, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006751022423283531, "return_acceleration": -0.0010178329324430635 } }, { "id": 249, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261013T0715Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:16:15.965295Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130330", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130330-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130330-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:15:00Z", "strike": 83649.79, "brti_reference_price": 83649.79483333336, "yes_ask": 0.62, "no_ask": 0.39, "yes_ask_size": 8910.97, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.62, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8910.97, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 157, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:16:16.140314Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.175019, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-13T07:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 83.50401562499246, "small_mean_absolute_error": 61.1651041666737 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.125, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.29049479166133, "small_mean_absolute_error": 81.10369010417344 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 93.88505555555336, "small_mean_absolute_error": 90.93062152778657 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 105.9837052083305, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.29581041667043 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.023222652643446917, "return_12h": 0.01669415491778592, "return_24h": -0.007022475358491653, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0085573153183498, "close_vs_ema24": 0.00879943545533246, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.004741905750262676, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0021109179862786043, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T07:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:01.21965Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T07:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T07:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83649.79, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T07:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T07:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "125906.38", "open_time": "2026-10-13T07:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T07:15:00.573193Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "183057.26", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7256.04", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "637.20", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,649.79" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T07:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:01.21965Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130330", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T07:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T07:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83649.79, "last_price_dollars": "0.6200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T07:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T07:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "136894.16", "open_time": "2026-10-13T07:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130330-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T07:15:00.573193Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "201538.39", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8910.97", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5756.69", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,649.79" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.61, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.62, "yes_ask_size": 8910.97, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.39, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 157, "entry_price": 0.62, "gross_cost": 97.34, "trading_fee": 2.59, "total_deployed": 99.93, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -97.34, "net_pnl": -99.93, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.62, "gross_cost": 62.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 63.65, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -62.0, "net_pnl": -63.65, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0002351534755348217, "return_30m": 0.00024967441035994575, "return_60m": 0.0014150354382476138, "return_120m": 0.0014920372318181219, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 7.389346847874734e-05, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0005173273698981795, "close_vs_ema12": 0.002133814818991553, "ema3_slope": 7.389892912690321e-05, "ema6_slope": 0.00020697377723921662, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00036004769860392694, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0004966535576779257, "return_acceleration": -0.0007200953972078539 } }, { "id": 250, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261013T0745Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:46:18.591675Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-13T08:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130400", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130400-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130400-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:45:00Z", "strike": 83754.71, "brti_reference_price": 83754.71083333336, "yes_ask": 0.73, "no_ask": 0.28, "yes_ask_size": 4431.39, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.28, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 340, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:46:18.837832Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.246157, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.75, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 87.17459895834327, "small_mean_absolute_error": 55.314203125024505 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.625, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 84.44346874999792, "small_mean_absolute_error": 70.83674218751003 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 95.60634027777753, "small_mean_absolute_error": 83.49370312501075 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.65, "both_down_accuracy": 0.35, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 106.46164062500102, "small_mean_absolute_error": 95.86632395834094 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.018191155174100082, "return_12h": 0.013069716951702448, "return_24h": -0.0015457328661540037, "close_vs_ema12": 0.009098913967646727, "close_vs_ema24": 0.009685706666611393, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.00472336478153057, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.002791766621988101, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T08:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:01.89222Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T08:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T08:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83754.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.7200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T08:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T08:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "147305.39", "open_time": "2026-10-13T07:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T07:45:00.530427Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "186418.09", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4804.37", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5718.11", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,754.71" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-13T08:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-12T20:01:01.89222Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130400", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-13T08:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-20T08:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83754.71, "last_price_dollars": "0.7200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-20T08:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-13T08:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "156665.20", "open_time": "2026-10-13T07:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 4:00 AM EDT on Oct 13, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 AM EDT on October 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT130400-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-13T07:45:00.530427Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "202364.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4431.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6247.56", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,754.71" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.72, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.73, "yes_ask_size": 4431.39, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.28, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-13T07:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0017385515348358194, "return_30m": 0.0012542290176447146, "return_60m": 0.0015042165768950344, "return_120m": 0.003003440132249402, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0007660833266946998, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0012583589091956782, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0026524158376846074, "ema3_slope": 0.0007666706603044471, "ema6_slope": 0.0005035970460098849, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0011110167468626475, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008632254415338972, "return_acceleration": 0.002222033493725295 } }, { "id": 251, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1015Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:16:16.357825Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140630", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140630-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140630-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:15:00Z", "strike": 83228.53, "brti_reference_price": 83228.52966666667, "yes_ask": 0.58, "no_ask": 0.43, "yes_ask_size": 4167.0, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.58, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4167.0, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 167, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:16:16.533856Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.176031, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-14T10:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.18957812499502, "small_mean_absolute_error": 93.51831770834178 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 109.59226302083152, "small_mean_absolute_error": 127.42142447917104 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 126.01391493055417, "small_mean_absolute_error": 145.02838541667248 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 97.5436406249988, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.8499250000059 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.005070274404266439, "return_12h": -0.0015323643821993915, "return_24h": -0.0024693803547854998, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001961368203219682, "close_vs_ema24": -0.001271786230512939, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.000153771268545988, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0007233679063629594, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T10:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:20.545029Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T10:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T10:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83228.53, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T10:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T10:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "67155.40", "open_time": "2026-10-14T10:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T10:15:00.59921Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "77988.81", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8634.92", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8537.11", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,228.53" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T10:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:20.545029Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140630", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T10:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T10:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83228.53, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T10:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T10:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "69866.14", "open_time": "2026-10-14T10:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:15 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140630-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T10:15:00.59921Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "82384.81", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4167.00", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8123.25", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,228.53" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.57, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.58, "yes_ask_size": 4167.0, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.43, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 167, "entry_price": 0.58, "gross_cost": 96.86, "trading_fee": 2.85, "total_deployed": 99.71, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 167.0, "gross_pnl": 70.14, "net_pnl": 67.29, "roi": 0.6748570855480895, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.58, "gross_cost": 57.99999999999999, "trading_fee": 1.71, "total_deployed": 59.709999999999994, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 42.00000000000001, "net_pnl": 40.290000000000006, "roi": 0.6747613465081228, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.000736369249603186, "return_30m": 0.0006694893320131623, "return_60m": -0.0019494527173543608, "return_120m": -0.007145823280576558, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00014708265511886864, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0004241997098629602, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0012944428946485287, "ema3_slope": 0.00014710429160880167, "ema6_slope": -0.00016965109756661434, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004015999775583978, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001099111816096762, "return_acceleration": 0.0008031999551167956 } }, { "id": 252, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1030Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:31:16.027344Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140645", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140645-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140645-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:30:00Z", "strike": 83270.53, "brti_reference_price": 83270.53166666666, "yes_ask": 0.72, "no_ask": 0.29, "yes_ask_size": 6714.63, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.72, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 6714.63, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 136, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:31:16.202659Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.175315, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-14T10:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 52.45969270832575, "small_mean_absolute_error": 60.24351041667251 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.98227864582987, "small_mean_absolute_error": 109.27726041666938 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 130.83860937499534, "small_mean_absolute_error": 151.70464236111366 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 100.68543749999881, "small_mean_absolute_error": 124.4061750000059 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.005277310428139392, "return_12h": -0.001271217184067197, "return_24h": -0.001174233520870538, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001398284607140532, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0007519831764313256, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0002050694007663667, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0005989843076885659, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T10:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:20.828567Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T10:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T10:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83270.53, "last_price_dollars": "0.6900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T10:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T10:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "49971.50", "open_time": "2026-10-14T10:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T10:30:00.550553Z", "volume_24h_fp": "55345.08", "volume_fp": "70136.24", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3063.36", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6728.32", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,270.53" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T10:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:20.828567Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140645", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T10:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T10:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83270.53, "last_price_dollars": "0.7100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T10:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T10:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "56679.14", "open_time": "2026-10-14T10:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:45 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 6:30 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140645-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T10:30:00.550553Z", "volume_24h_fp": "55345.08", "volume_fp": "79494.67", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6714.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4849.15", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,270.53" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.71, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.72, "yes_ask_size": 6714.63, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.29, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 136, "entry_price": 0.72, "gross_cost": 97.92, "trading_fee": 1.92, "total_deployed": 99.84, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 136.0, "gross_pnl": 38.08, "net_pnl": 36.16, "roi": 0.3621794871794871, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.72, "gross_cost": 72.0, "trading_fee": 1.42, "total_deployed": 73.42, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 28.0, "net_pnl": 26.58, "roi": 0.36202669572323615, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0005046586809620557, "return_30m": 0.001241399545699462, "return_60m": 0.0008157611967642975, "return_120m": -0.005518799985538059, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0003258016000333708, "close_vs_ema6": 5.731646806528268e-05, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0006689130452844916, "ema3_slope": 0.0003259077813098088, "ema6_slope": 2.2927112866666377e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00011585528432056513, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.000436848817143404, "return_acceleration": -0.00023171056864113027 } }, { "id": 253, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:01:18.538202Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140715", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140715-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140715-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:00:00Z", "strike": 83375.62, "brti_reference_price": 83375.61983333332, "yes_ask": 0.26, "no_ask": 0.75, "yes_ask_size": 4156.12, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.75, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 131, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:01:18.732954Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.194752, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.33278645832615, "small_mean_absolute_error": 98.74684895832615 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.16140624999389, "small_mean_absolute_error": 101.4495520833334 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 123.67904861110583, "small_mean_absolute_error": 146.45122395833218 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 101.34283749999595, "small_mean_absolute_error": 132.88505937500304 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.003555578080598365, "return_12h": -0.0008709664095157832, "return_24h": 0.001798714467402318, "close_vs_ema12": -9.635177358235936e-05, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0005041080915832996, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00026899663922841377, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00041637604794164673, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T11:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:21.379403Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T11:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T11:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83375.62, "last_price_dollars": "0.2500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T11:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T11:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "56466.30", "open_time": "2026-10-14T11:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T11:00:00.645801Z", "volume_24h_fp": "65174.59", "volume_fp": "79280.82", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7173.92", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6972.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,375.62" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T11:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:21.379403Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T11:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T11:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83375.62, "last_price_dollars": "0.2600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T11:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T11:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "61287.43", "open_time": "2026-10-14T11:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:00 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T11:00:00.645801Z", "volume_24h_fp": "65174.59", "volume_fp": "86858.55", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4156.12", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8699.18", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,375.62" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.25, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.26, "yes_ask_size": 4156.12, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.75, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T10:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0007836983352231819, "return_30m": 0.0012620090752790691, "return_60m": 0.0025049752784713775, "return_120m": 0.00024724768444883694, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0005925479111568155, "close_vs_ema6": 0.000832781321903342, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0005260038680503509, "ema3_slope": 0.0005928992323582793, "ema6_slope": 0.0003332235296940045, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00015288107647881688, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00013573531113604938, "return_acceleration": 0.00030576215295763376 } }, { "id": 254, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1115Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:16:16.581129Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140730", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140730-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140730-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:15:00Z", "strike": 83374.85, "brti_reference_price": 83374.85383333336, "yes_ask": 0.44, "no_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 8487.98, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:16:16.761977Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.180848, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 61.32480208331981, "small_mean_absolute_error": 89.57675520831981 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.75719010415742, "small_mean_absolute_error": 91.5475364583308 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 93.50310937499428, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.80653472222063 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 99.9835791666621, "small_mean_absolute_error": 123.08947291666918 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0009999563634417452, "return_12h": 0.001935470331546174, "return_24h": 0.002987458267954768, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00010123098061820546, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0004846681864678626, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.000479451903300232, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0003870935757293026, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T11:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:21.709367Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T11:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T11:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83374.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T11:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T11:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "50552.16", "open_time": "2026-10-14T11:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T11:15:00.633249Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "106389.39", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5942.25", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4821.82", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,374.85" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T11:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:21.709367Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140730", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T11:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T11:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83374.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T11:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T11:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "50380.02", "open_time": "2026-10-14T11:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:30 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 7:15 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140730-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T11:15:00.633249Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "105704.62", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8487.98", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7046.30", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,374.85" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 8487.98, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.57, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -9.187337995042455e-06, "return_30m": 0.0007745037971265134, "return_60m": 0.0017581010652563123, "return_120m": -0.0001947789869970462, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00029159251361754457, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0005881375571736847, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0004372674386481368, "ema3_slope": 0.00029167756461179195, "ema6_slope": 0.00023531038081858746, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00039644283660911217, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00028526987888137246, "return_acceleration": -0.0007928856732182243 } }, { "id": 255, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1200Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:01:17.349017Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140815", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140815-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140815-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:00:00Z", "strike": 83399.52, "brti_reference_price": 83399.51716666664, "yes_ask": 0.61, "no_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 4618.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.4, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 239, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:01:17.537738Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.188721, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 40.42357291665394, "small_mean_absolute_error": 88.07786979165394 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 56.37817968749005, "small_mean_absolute_error": 93.41235937499005 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 64.24879513888057, "small_mean_absolute_error": 96.99232465277358 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.2, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 98.39275312499521, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.6787791666662 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0002810138264184303, "return_12h": 0.003576455128150746, "return_24h": 0.0017508640506560535, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00024005678805538722, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0007690513050222503, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0006021893534060574, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00029089961918282725, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:22.562714Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83399.52, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "67355.45", "open_time": "2026-10-14T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T12:00:00.901165Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "121135.90", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6482.22", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "37.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,399.52" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T12:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:22.562714Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140815", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T12:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83399.52, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T12:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "68653.34", "open_time": "2026-10-14T12:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140815-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T12:00:00.901165Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "122771.11", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4618.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6228.30", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,399.52" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.6, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 4618.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.4, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T11:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0004953040259410013, "return_30m": 0.001305552719662595, "return_60m": 0.00028662255682299076, "return_120m": 0.002792315817713442, "consecutive_up_closes": 2, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0003602690665804875, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0006133921609852155, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0006523621826923787, "ema3_slope": 0.0003603989071585545, "ema6_slope": 0.0002454170791590382, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00015727177350877142, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006887509950854567, "return_acceleration": -0.00031454354701754283 } }, { "id": 256, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1215Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:16:15.969888Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140830", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140830-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140830-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:15:00Z", "strike": 83724.22, "brti_reference_price": 83724.2208333333, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 11933.44, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.47, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 11933.44, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 205, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:16:16.140759Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.170871, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-14T12:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.33091145831713, "small_mean_absolute_error": 162.59067708331713 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 86.32785677081847, "small_mean_absolute_error": 126.08371614581847 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 87.61509722221065, "small_mean_absolute_error": 115.22858333332624 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 110.1394916666599, "small_mean_absolute_error": 137.4505177083309 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:00:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0028081524631837773, "return_12h": 0.004963769003501817, "return_24h": 0.006476376620549118, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003964925508850303, "close_vs_ema24": 0.004568783015421962, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00041464372345800804, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0003429229084084273, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T12:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:22.842551Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T12:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83724.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T12:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "88455.35", "open_time": "2026-10-14T12:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T12:15:00.540715Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "131304.33", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8289.71", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9297.98", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,724.22" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T12:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:22.842551Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140830", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T12:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83724.22, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T12:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "91873.34", "open_time": "2026-10-14T12:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140830-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T12:15:00.540715Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "136194.47", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "11933.44", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "773.80", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,724.22" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 11933.44, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 205, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 96.35, "trading_fee": 3.58, "total_deployed": 99.92999999999999, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 205.0, "gross_pnl": 108.65, "net_pnl": 105.07000000000001, "roi": 1.0514360052036427, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.47, "gross_cost": 47.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 48.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 53.0, "net_pnl": 51.25, "roi": 1.0512820512820513, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.003893351876579354, "return_30m": 0.004390584295379085, "return_60m": 0.004190316191718058, "return_120m": 0.005955784256334695, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0021229951015759863, "close_vs_ema6": 0.003216664601947361, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003845831511245734, "ema3_slope": 0.0021275117987031855, "ema6_slope": 0.0012883234825957768, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0016990239253191763, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0017809473352610402, "return_acceleration": 0.0033980478506383527 } }, { "id": 257, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:31:15.991307Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140845", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140845-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140845-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:30:00Z", "strike": 83734.78, "brti_reference_price": 83734.78016666668, "yes_ask": 0.087, "no_ask": 0.914, "yes_ask_size": 400.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.087, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 400.02, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 1080, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:31:16.161801Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.170494, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.16933854165109, "small_mean_absolute_error": 177.8978541666511 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.125, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.66653645832048, "small_mean_absolute_error": 134.05520833332048 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.59758854165557, "small_mean_absolute_error": 109.45130902777116 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 113.96978020832539, "small_mean_absolute_error": 144.6448687499964 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:15:00Z", "return_6h": 0.003935493015709168, "return_12h": 0.0042444445613558646, "return_24h": 0.005328835108807883, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003923888807274789, "close_vs_ema24": 0.004598247739199923, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00013739971897730463, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0004170939742085267, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T12:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:23.115651Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T12:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83734.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.0740", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.9270", "no_bid_dollars": "0.9260", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T12:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "205062.34", "open_time": "2026-10-14T12:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T12:30:00.601141Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "412243.39", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.0740", "yes_ask_size_fp": "150.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.0730", "yes_bid_size_fp": "844.76", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,734.78" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T12:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:23.115651Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140845", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T12:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 83734.78, "last_price_dollars": "0.0860", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T12:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.9140", "no_bid_dollars": "0.9130", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T12:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "214558.04", "open_time": "2026-10-14T12:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:30 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140845-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T12:30:00.601141Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "427133.49", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.0870", "yes_ask_size_fp": "400.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.0860", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1970.77", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $83,734.78" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.086, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.087, "yes_ask_size": 400.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.914, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00012612041328408097, "return_30m": 0.004019963321011177, "return_60m": 0.00533076431472046, "return_120m": 0.0055751835698421015, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0011234281237275656, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0023857145306040994, "close_vs_ema12": 0.003359239834562766, "ema3_slope": 0.0011246916339398005, "ema6_slope": 0.0009551973435144578, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0018836157316476365, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0014989470866123645, "return_acceleration": -0.003767231463295273 } }, { "id": 258, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1245Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:46:18.755730Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T13:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140900", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140900-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140900-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:45:00Z", "strike": 82679.4, "brti_reference_price": 82679.39816666668, "yes_ask": 0.66, "no_ask": 0.35, "yes_ask_size": 5927.82, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.66, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5927.82, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 147, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:46:18.954559Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.198829, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-14T13:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.75, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 361.2467968749843, "small_mean_absolute_error": 383.9967968749843 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.625, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 206.00719791665324, "small_mean_absolute_error": 236.74645572915324 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 157.98649826387677, "small_mean_absolute_error": 181.04334374999235 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 161.27607604165897, "small_mean_absolute_error": 187.12805312499478 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.00862386011972549, "return_12h": -0.010252695929833688, "return_24h": -0.005795812894860863, "close_vs_ema12": -0.008376114986165972, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007898606419775578, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00037327732981462525, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00023051764871961922, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:23.396401Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T13:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T13:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82679.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.6500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T13:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T13:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "91574.90", "open_time": "2026-10-14T12:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T12:45:00.53394Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "136454.25", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_ask_size_fp": "897.12", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "yes_bid_size_fp": "11414.69", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,679.40" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T13:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:23.396401Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140900", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T13:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T13:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82679.4, "last_price_dollars": "0.6600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T13:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T13:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "94305.76", "open_time": "2026-10-14T12:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 9:00 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 8:45 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT140900-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T12:45:00.53394Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "144562.25", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5927.82", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2050.82", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,679.40" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.65, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.66, "yes_ask_size": 5927.82, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.35, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 147, "entry_price": 0.66, "gross_cost": 97.02000000000001, "trading_fee": 2.31, "total_deployed": 99.33000000000001, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -97.02000000000001, "net_pnl": -99.33000000000001, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.66, "gross_cost": 66.0, "trading_fee": 1.58, "total_deployed": 67.58, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -66.0, "net_pnl": -67.58, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T12:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.012603866611930581, "return_30m": -0.012479335803512681, "return_60m": -0.008143543083929172, "return_120m": -0.007573268555344792, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.005780521398138672, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0073416549076799065, "close_vs_ema12": -0.007869445740213976, "ema3_slope": -0.005747299013211249, "ema6_slope": -0.0029280632311554644, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.006364993512607331, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.006283281972588891, "return_acceleration": -0.012729987025214662 } }, { "id": 259, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1445Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T14:46:19.797733Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141100-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T14:45:00Z", "strike": 81782.18, "brti_reference_price": 81782.17699999998, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 12906.07, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.55, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 176, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T14:46:20.047610Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.249877, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 352.13774479167114, "small_mean_absolute_error": 343.45610416667114 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 323.8637395833339, "small_mean_absolute_error": 298.0600286458339 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 336.3247586805507, "small_mean_absolute_error": 326.7056180555507 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 224.33739479165962, "small_mean_absolute_error": 227.85001770832895 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T14:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.018957262541051012, "return_12h": -0.018326746390051718, "return_24h": -0.021752711553622572, "close_vs_ema12": -0.015455009873091119, "close_vs_ema24": -0.016771023382084582, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003750208826035717, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.002022446166065728, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T15:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:25.883023Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T15:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T15:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81782.18, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T15:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T15:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "178067.65", "open_time": "2026-10-14T14:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T14:45:00.631887Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "228879.75", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5159.33", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5360.79", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,782.18" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T15:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:25.883023Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T15:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T15:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81782.18, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T15:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T15:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "184411.91", "open_time": "2026-10-14T14:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T14:45:00.631887Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "260327.31", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "12906.07", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3011.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,782.18" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 12906.07, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T14:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0014062523377845748, "return_30m": -0.0026184471417978195, "return_60m": -0.012701277658867194, "return_120m": -0.010851810566618547, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 4, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0018234478818762723, "close_vs_ema6": -0.004644097675719605, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00860085277843936, "ema3_slope": -0.0018201289715584767, "ema6_slope": -0.0018541946458697778, "realized_volatility_30m": 9.617524072402794e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0019609963422487615, "return_acceleration": -0.0001923504814480559 } }, { "id": 260, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:46:24.172515Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141200-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:45:00Z", "strike": 81588.63, "brti_reference_price": 81588.62733333332, "yes_ask": 0.69, "no_ask": 0.32, "yes_ask_size": 4905.86, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.32, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 298, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:46:24.443066Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.270551, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 188.2092447916657, "small_mean_absolute_error": 105.0705729166657 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 270.1734947916684, "small_mean_absolute_error": 224.26333854166842 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 278.64557465277784, "small_mean_absolute_error": 233.7302100694445 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 249.59022395832798, "small_mean_absolute_error": 234.936708333328 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.01904731014796479, "return_12h": -0.02570079511190282, "return_24h": -0.020111474453687106, "close_vs_ema12": -0.015396740561766986, "close_vs_ema24": -0.01775539951726557, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0061564359068939645, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.003322293006829846, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:26.96017Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81588.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.7000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "136772.61", "open_time": "2026-10-14T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T15:45:00.626224Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "240628.97", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6004.58", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10885.97", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,588.63" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:26.96017Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81588.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.6800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "145559.13", "open_time": "2026-10-14T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T15:45:00.626224Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "256497.53", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4905.86", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "14232.25", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,588.63" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.68, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.69, "yes_ask_size": 4905.86, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.32, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.003312264029511125, "return_30m": -0.0020123690695372787, "return_60m": -0.0023666485017470595, "return_120m": -0.015037866700872593, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0015249305540574465, "close_vs_ema6": -0.003100125037767243, "close_vs_ema12": -0.006556247578365149, "ema3_slope": -0.0015226086815570694, "ema6_slope": -0.001238514195560092, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0023082394467327516, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001757078186241432, "return_acceleration": -0.004616478893465503 } }, { "id": 261, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:01:16.786800Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141215-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:00:00Z", "strike": 81557.63, "brti_reference_price": 81557.62533333334, "yes_ask": 0.69, "no_ask": 0.32, "yes_ask_size": 956.5, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.32, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 298, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:01:16.975675Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.188875, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 200.03024999999616, "small_mean_absolute_error": 143.71384374999616 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 216.42812500000218, "small_mean_absolute_error": 174.51699218750218 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 263.9712152777768, "small_mean_absolute_error": 216.30129340277685 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 255.96976249999497, "small_mean_absolute_error": 238.144371874995 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0193545147609685, "return_12h": -0.024799174693340365, "return_24h": -0.02135175420976021, "close_vs_ema12": -0.015136904345979585, "close_vs_ema24": -0.017761498167846446, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.006438686441520569, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0036521906041797614, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:27.235411Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81557.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.6900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "81156.23", "open_time": "2026-10-14T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.634702Z", "volume_24h_fp": "109473.11", "volume_fp": "141269.05", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8464.25", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3919.66", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,557.63" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T16:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:27.235411Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T16:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81557.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.6900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T16:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "89229.32", "open_time": "2026-10-14T16:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T16:00:00.634702Z", "volume_24h_fp": "109473.11", "volume_fp": "160228.63", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "956.50", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "11527.74", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,557.63" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.68, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.69, "yes_ask_size": 956.5, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.32, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T15:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0003799794286686309, "return_30m": -0.00369098486598618, "return_60m": -0.003277289791305704, "return_120m": -0.009611398517895053, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0009530727530180361, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0024874199308025924, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0058732723756586, "ema3_slope": -0.0009521652702427774, "ema6_slope": -0.000993978995055711, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001466142300421247, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001652413644097066, "return_acceleration": 0.002932284600842494 } }, { "id": 262, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1615Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:16:18.027415Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141230", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141230-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141230-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:15:00Z", "strike": 81550.68, "brti_reference_price": 81550.67950000001, "yes_ask": 0.67, "no_ask": 0.34, "yes_ask_size": 13197.98, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.34, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 281, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:16:18.224295Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.19688, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 200.5352552083241, "small_mean_absolute_error": 165.3614270833241 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 189.01978124999914, "small_mean_absolute_error": 129.95142187499914 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 254.06677256944263, "small_mean_absolute_error": 211.96651215277598 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 263.12379166666216, "small_mean_absolute_error": 245.95504166666214 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.02015955554407256, "return_12h": -0.02512761546986253, "return_24h": -0.02170968860900946, "close_vs_ema12": -0.014608599307511683, "close_vs_ema24": -0.017483610954453943, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.006598526209014688, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.003992095509245286, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T16:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:27.502048Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T16:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81550.68, "last_price_dollars": "0.6700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T16:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "123712.70", "open_time": "2026-10-14T16:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T16:15:00.622742Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "203790.00", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "13197.98", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2149.11", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,550.68" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T16:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:27.502048Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141230", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T16:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81550.68, "last_price_dollars": "0.6700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T16:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "123712.70", "open_time": "2026-10-14T16:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:15 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141230-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T16:15:00.622742Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "203790.00", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "13197.98", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2149.11", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,550.68" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.66, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.67, "yes_ask_size": 13197.98, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.34, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -8.516473235875566e-05, "return_30m": -0.0004651118001810506, "return_60m": -0.0024765448931177714, "return_120m": -0.005441694755183746, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.000519347740664311, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0018387605812910657, "close_vs_ema12": -0.005045956385803074, "ema3_slope": -0.0005190781585955317, "ema6_slope": -0.0007349636636310164, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0001474073481549376, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0016803671847796255, "return_acceleration": 0.0002948146963098752 } }, { "id": 263, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261014T1630Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:16.810710Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141245-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:30:00Z", "strike": 81640.29, "brti_reference_price": 81640.29466666668, "yes_ask": 0.54, "no_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 4470.18, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.47, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 205, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:31:17.004834Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.194124, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 178.80546875000073, "small_mean_absolute_error": 158.2460260416592 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 172.1974375000009, "small_mean_absolute_error": 122.20970833333013 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 236.16273611111077, "small_mean_absolute_error": 213.0752135416636 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 259.6621239583292, "small_mean_absolute_error": 242.68656354166086 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.019577598069456803, "return_12h": -0.02475159143514638, "return_24h": -0.02176849801704217, "close_vs_ema12": -0.012980857667967083, "close_vs_ema24": -0.016071145275033394, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.006772091190848761, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.004313204901088996, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:27.793499Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81640.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "114753.19", "open_time": "2026-10-14T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T16:30:00.645444Z", "volume_24h_fp": "171541.12", "volume_fp": "201747.51", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "12720.80", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7497.21", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,640.29" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-14T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:27.793499Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-14T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81640.29, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-21T16:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-14T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "118958.52", "open_time": "2026-10-14T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT141245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-14T16:30:00.645444Z", "volume_24h_fp": "171541.12", "volume_fp": "214790.56", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4470.18", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5543.27", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,640.29" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.53, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 4470.18, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.47, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-14T16:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0010988892700356523, "return_30m": 0.0010136309510664354, "return_60m": -0.002681095211419904, "return_120m": -0.0031386935146727746, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0002894016343046868, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0005300351407432347, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003346552918841339, "ema3_slope": 0.00028948541185580545, "ema6_slope": -0.00021196911586529588, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.000592027001197204, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0016230120243677256, "return_acceleration": 0.001184054002394408 } }, { "id": 264, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261015T0230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-15T02:31:17.079992Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-15T02:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT142245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT142245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT142245-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-15T02:30:00Z", "strike": 80596.5, "brti_reference_price": 80596.49783333334, "yes_ask": 0.54, "no_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 3097.25, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.47, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 205, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-15T02:31:17.296899Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.216907, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 344.8038906250076, "small_mean_absolute_error": 396.8917812500076 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 246.71216927083333, "small_mean_absolute_error": 271.55689583333333 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 194.86289062500023, "small_mean_absolute_error": 206.24205555555696 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 148.29260937500075, "small_mean_absolute_error": 156.14274062500482 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-15T02:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.014881768085871716, "return_12h": -0.015883878710663435, "return_24h": -0.031893322116154144, "close_vs_ema12": -0.01436734499122716, "close_vs_ema24": -0.01934141374195486, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0025057146944577058, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005174293118139439, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-15T02:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:38.926294Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT142245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T02:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-22T02:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80596.5, "last_price_dollars": "0.5200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-22T02:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-15T02:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "225877.59", "open_time": "2026-10-15T02:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT142245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-15T02:30:00.551849Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "382916.76", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "699.22", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8072.72", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,596.50" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-15T02:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:38.926294Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT142245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T02:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-22T02:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80596.5, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-22T02:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-15T02:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "240535.75", "open_time": "2026-10-15T02:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on Oct 14, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT142245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-15T02:30:00.551849Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "410919.36", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3097.25", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6749.34", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,596.50" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.53, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 3097.25, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.47, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-15T02:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.010015949896998166, "return_30m": -0.011544981752390493, "return_60m": -0.010424074015146445, "return_120m": -0.013059673692778162, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.005539781665180876, "close_vs_ema6": -0.00818027217463868, "close_vs_ema12": -0.009912769735906046, "ema3_slope": -0.005509261559007883, "ema6_slope": -0.0032614370926162817, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.004235724195957524, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0047996106535021935, "return_acceleration": -0.008471448391915049 } }, { "id": 265, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261015T0345Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-15T03:46:17.966999Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-15T04:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150000", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150000-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150000-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-15T03:45:00Z", "strike": 80744.23, "brti_reference_price": 80744.233, "yes_ask": 0.59, "no_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 2977.24, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.42, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 228, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-15T03:46:18.154930Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.187931, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 312.8328802083379, "small_mean_absolute_error": 285.2430364583379 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 317.0917291666701, "small_mean_absolute_error": 343.6971979166701 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 271.7488472222237, "small_mean_absolute_error": 288.3621284722237 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.6, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 203.94611666666606, "small_mean_absolute_error": 209.05632395833527 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-15T03:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.012108610488453131, "return_12h": -0.01034941217828711, "return_24h": -0.03578421916826724, "close_vs_ema12": -0.010981924108175556, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0162376047986299, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0031797622464432296, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005419519237266912, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-15T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:40.300829Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T04:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-22T04:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80744.23, "last_price_dollars": "0.5700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-22T04:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-15T04:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "186476.31", "open_time": "2026-10-15T03:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on Oct 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-15T03:45:00.573051Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "311108.20", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7279.35", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7778.30", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,744.23" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-15T04:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-13T20:01:40.300829Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150000", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T04:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-22T04:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80744.23, "last_price_dollars": "0.5800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-22T04:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-15T04:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "188237.67", "open_time": "2026-10-15T03:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on Oct 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on October 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150000-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-15T03:45:00.573051Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "314353.66", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2977.24", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "12011.88", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,744.23" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.58, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 2977.24, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.42, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-15T03:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0024917476857528875, "return_30m": -0.005092765081357475, "return_60m": -0.005331565433196905, "return_120m": -0.01196232191724822, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.002066068417713174, "close_vs_ema6": -0.003700900414082109, "close_vs_ema12": -0.005599722302118582, "ema3_slope": -0.002061808580122282, "ema6_slope": -0.00147817193877664, "realized_volatility_30m": 5.788348924096187e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0025012551442076757, "return_acceleration": 0.00011576697848192374 } }, { "id": 266, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261015T0600Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-15T06:01:18.391053Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-15T06:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150215-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-15T06:00:00Z", "strike": 80499.63, "brti_reference_price": 80499.63216666666, "yes_ask": 0.56, "no_ask": 0.45, "yes_ask_size": 10139.96, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.45, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 213, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-15T06:01:18.630813Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.23976, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 251.19064062499456, "small_mean_absolute_error": 333.96798437499456 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.375, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 239.53448437499537, "small_mean_absolute_error": 288.9329218749954 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 235.548015624999, "small_mean_absolute_error": 274.05843229166567 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 260.20460520833296, "small_mean_absolute_error": 289.07413645833293 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-15T05:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.013150122788080254, "return_12h": -0.012182096018911737, "return_24h": -0.03449976196612248, "close_vs_ema12": -0.011740824092389412, "close_vs_ema24": -0.017125481868154435, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003397292785563555, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.005502153089066764, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-15T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-14T20:01:00.236132Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-22T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80499.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.5300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-22T06:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-15T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "219308.31", "open_time": "2026-10-15T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Oct 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on October 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-15T06:00:00.692671Z", "volume_24h_fp": "264766.39", "volume_fp": "307980.38", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "671.37", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5288.32", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,499.63" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-15T06:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-14T20:01:00.236132Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T06:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-22T06:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80499.63, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-22T06:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-15T06:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "225639.43", "open_time": "2026-10-15T06:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 AM EDT on Oct 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 AM EDT on October 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT150215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-15T06:00:00.692671Z", "volume_24h_fp": "264766.39", "volume_fp": "334066.84", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "10139.96", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,499.63" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.55, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.56, "yes_ask_size": 10139.96, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.45, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-15T05:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.005260425215463549, "return_30m": -0.006620957104925829, "return_60m": -0.012841111425729301, "return_120m": -0.004132567698980405, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 4, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0033462300738337225, "close_vs_ema6": -0.005338093135557664, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0067762132413703435, "ema3_slope": -0.0033350701617600453, "ema6_slope": -0.002130687730403924, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0019463492509547153, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0018973358602178709, "return_acceleration": -0.0038926985019094307 } }, { "id": 267, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261015T2100Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-15T21:01:16.344393Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-15T21:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT151715", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT151715-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT151715-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-15T21:00:00Z", "strike": 81977.56, "brti_reference_price": 81977.555, "yes_ask": 0.51, "no_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 5402.31, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-15T21:01:16.543246Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.198853, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 129.47104687500178, "small_mean_absolute_error": 214.82651562500178 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.625, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 105.29640104167083, "small_mean_absolute_error": 160.97130989583638 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 124.0391927083377, "small_mean_absolute_error": 173.23855729166826 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "both_up_accuracy": 0.6, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.44999999999999996, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 121.9987395833341, "small_mean_absolute_error": 154.53943125000006 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-15T20:45:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0021536044734107307, "return_12h": 0.008903169388214671, "return_24h": 0.0032530186791526194, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0020946878857552864, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0030089952589062996, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0034807698936727416, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.004051475427192308, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-15T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-14T20:01:16.167645Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT151715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-22T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81977.56, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-22T21:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-15T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "182778.39", "open_time": "2026-10-15T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Oct 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on October 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT151715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-15T21:00:00.89623Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "276322.10", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "478.84", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8137.19", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,977.56" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-15T21:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-14T20:01:16.167645Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT151715", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-15T21:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-22T21:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81977.56, "last_price_dollars": "0.5000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-22T21:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-15T21:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "182823.73", "open_time": "2026-10-15T21:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:15 PM EDT on Oct 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5:00 PM EDT on October 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT151715-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-15T21:00:00.89623Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "277179.02", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5402.31", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7715.90", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,977.56" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.5, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 5402.31, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.5, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-15T20:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0037707797044290725, "return_30m": -0.0037703297408118175, "return_60m": -0.004026638234452373, "return_120m": -0.00395125093860027, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0018729800968165788, "close_vs_ema6": -0.002708817585470924, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002846404412367054, "ema3_slope": -0.001869478600606267, "ema6_slope": -0.001082354274071884, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001885615685591091, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001724153053240418, "return_acceleration": -0.003771231371182182 } }, { "id": 268, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T0200Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T02:01:17.499092Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T02:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT152215", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT152215-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT152215-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T02:00:00Z", "strike": 81997.28, "brti_reference_price": 81997.28349999999, "yes_ask": 0.4, "no_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 581.02, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.61, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 159, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T02:01:17.689100Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.190008, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.0, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 86.48642708333136, "small_mean_absolute_error": 152.33408333333136 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 88.18021354166376, "small_mean_absolute_error": 125.33997395833103 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 86.37780381944322, "small_mean_absolute_error": 133.59317013888844 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 93.29126145833361, "small_mean_absolute_error": 128.50879895833424 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BULL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T01:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0037869499384597383, "return_12h": 0.023706995047682256, "return_24h": 0.005634593774194174, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00044033925262021434, "close_vs_ema24": 0.0012383966540177038, "ema12_slope_3h": 0.0010535058510301454, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0025002005041494524, "score": 2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T02:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-14T20:01:21.898528Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT152215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T02:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81997.28, "last_price_dollars": "0.4200", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T02:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T02:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "203960.08", "open_time": "2026-10-16T02:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 PM EDT on Oct 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:00 PM EDT on October 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT152215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T02:00:00.885058Z", "volume_24h_fp": "271835.37", "volume_fp": "292633.01", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8837.93", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5056.41", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,997.28" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T02:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-14T20:01:21.898528Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT152215", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T02:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T02:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81997.28, "last_price_dollars": "0.3900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T02:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T02:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "216062.31", "open_time": "2026-10-16T02:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:15 PM EDT on Oct 15, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:00 PM EDT on October 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT152215-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T02:00:00.885058Z", "volume_24h_fp": "271835.37", "volume_fp": "308247.13", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "581.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8172.11", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,997.28" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.39, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 581.02, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.61, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T01:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0008968324301699138, "return_30m": -0.001092112530539202, "return_60m": -0.0029528185980234323, "return_120m": -0.0017401868220320305, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0008018067109336613, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0015346758272702932, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002113303849024084, "ema3_slope": -0.0008011643319957296, "ema6_slope": -0.0006134937253120532, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.00035068851953362623, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.001345795554596679, "return_acceleration": -0.0007013770390672525 } }, { "id": 269, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T1445Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:46:18.363345Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161100", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161100-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161100-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:45:00Z", "strike": 82236.18, "brti_reference_price": 82236.17583333333, "yes_ask": 0.4, "no_ask": 0.61, "yes_ask_size": 9290.01, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.61, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 159, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:46:18.552542Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.189197, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 130.2261510416647, "small_mean_absolute_error": 164.8296666666647 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 111.94240104166784, "small_mean_absolute_error": 158.11719531249946 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 120.73573958333266, "small_mean_absolute_error": 169.47028645833416 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.45, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.55, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 117.87319687500204, "small_mean_absolute_error": 143.47720104166874 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:30:00Z", "return_6h": 0.0003413937282177315, "return_12h": 0.0017721252044775593, "return_24h": 0.009764339463652849, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0015603743414689397, "close_vs_ema24": 0.002467403956405878, "ema12_slope_3h": -9.635866506452206e-05, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.000869909948401304, "score": 1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T15:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:23.680297Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T15:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T15:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82236.18, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T15:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T15:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "78329.83", "open_time": "2026-10-16T14:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T14:45:00.629219Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "131665.49", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7074.91", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "5011.08", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,236.18" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T15:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:23.680297Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161100", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T15:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T15:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 82236.18, "last_price_dollars": "0.4000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T15:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T15:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "98075.83", "open_time": "2026-10-16T14:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 AM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161100-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T14:45:00.629219Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "154848.83", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9290.01", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1971.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $82,236.18" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.39, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.4, "yes_ask_size": 9290.01, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.61, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T14:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0002641873675671702, "return_30m": 0.0018947908715496453, "return_60m": 0.004812406501099709, "return_120m": 0.0008563232740352866, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0006549942486993032, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0013764115091770002, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0014436655224199235, "ema3_slope": 0.0006554235473532621, "ema6_slope": 0.000550867892033402, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001211868066093691, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0009108932251582031, "return_acceleration": -0.002423736132187382 } }, { "id": 270, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T1515Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:16:16.373294Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161130", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161130-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161130-30:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:15:00Z", "strike": 81638.38, "brti_reference_price": 81638.38333333333, "yes_ask": 0.44, "no_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 8179.39, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.57, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 170, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:16:16.561317Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.188023, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 229.10774479166503, "small_mean_absolute_error": 202.89094791666503 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 164.66173437500038, "small_mean_absolute_error": 181.6416302083344 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 147.85433854166695, "small_mean_absolute_error": 186.47365104166843 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 150.38677395833582, "small_mean_absolute_error": 175.61617395833673 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.006388218192275197, "return_12h": -0.004921544958964019, "return_24h": -0.006390245804557493, "close_vs_ema12": -0.005373604460276127, "close_vs_ema24": -0.00467993434798919, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0006798606043539879, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.0006292677087367249, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:24.2102Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81638.38, "last_price_dollars": "0.4000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T15:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "130910.03", "open_time": "2026-10-16T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T15:15:00.555405Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "183274.42", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5890.79", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8019.85", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,638.38" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:24.2102Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81638.38, "last_price_dollars": "0.4300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T15:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "130745.38", "open_time": "2026-10-16T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T15:15:00.555405Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "192271.49", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8179.39", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7993.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,638.38" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.43, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 8179.39, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.57, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0027916239270823207, "return_30m": -0.007269215694216236, "return_60m": -0.005388198466207306, "return_120m": -0.003599271920631142, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.002360048120764735, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0035879148170492314, "close_vs_ema12": -0.004546656108863512, "ema3_slope": -0.002354491407742576, "ema6_slope": -0.0014331091773588378, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008492512923287121, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002521633862514493, "return_acceleration": 0.0016985025846574242 } }, { "id": 271, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T1545Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:46:17.921366Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161200", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161200-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161200-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:45:00Z", "strike": 81581.85, "brti_reference_price": 81581.85150000002, "yes_ask": 0.51, "no_ask": 0.5, "yes_ask_size": 2035.78, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.5, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 193, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:46:18.111864Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.190498, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 254.6887239583375, "small_mean_absolute_error": 207.88602083332808 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.125, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 192.4574375000011, "small_mean_absolute_error": 186.3578437499964 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.08333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 159.52450868055772, "small_mean_absolute_error": 174.70680381944234 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 157.31554062500217, "small_mean_absolute_error": 172.7929937500012 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.005378967605457863, "return_12h": -0.0018052949340339186, "return_24h": -0.008846783260516355, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0055477201787251795, "close_vs_ema24": -0.005134346324308536, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.001260148847768261, "ema24_slope_6h": 0.00035433365900683356, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:24.689592Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81581.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.4800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "85556.80", "open_time": "2026-10-16T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T15:45:00.628086Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "133600.50", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "15089.59", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "4155.74", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,581.85" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T16:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:24.689592Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161200", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T16:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T16:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81581.85, "last_price_dollars": "0.5100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T16:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T16:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "94798.75", "open_time": "2026-10-16T15:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 AM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161200-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T15:45:00.628086Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "150138.54", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2035.78", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "17588.69", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,581.85" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.5, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.51, "yes_ask_size": 2035.78, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.5, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T15:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.000841417244259679, "return_30m": -0.0006924663500805783, "return_60m": -0.007956648357037133, "return_120m": -0.0031825324822177814, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0005545689612778126, "close_vs_ema6": -0.002016330146380474, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003645783710229833, "ema3_slope": -0.000554261585006377, "ema6_slope": -0.0008058820888121598, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0011870056437717214, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0019441794887005554, "return_acceleration": 0.0023740112875434427 } }, { "id": 272, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T1645Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:46:18.379684Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T17:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161300-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:45:00Z", "strike": 81428.96, "brti_reference_price": 81428.96466666667, "yes_ask": 0.59, "no_ask": 0.42, "yes_ask_size": 12701.4, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.42, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 228, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:46:18.595421Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.215737, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 170.7186302083319, "small_mean_absolute_error": 197.77693750000253 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 212.7036770833347, "small_mean_absolute_error": 202.8314791666653 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 185.21116840277804, "small_mean_absolute_error": 190.16420833333177 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 157.5229145833335, "small_mean_absolute_error": 182.81476354166662 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.008533506262808577, "return_12h": -0.006050440226809339, "return_24h": -0.00676177201848327, "close_vs_ema12": -0.006294863391264616, "close_vs_ema24": -0.006448892152506325, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0019302087483610286, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00018360685243545838, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:25.732495Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81428.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.6100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4000", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3900", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "95682.82", "open_time": "2026-10-16T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T16:45:00.556587Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "147035.94", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6100", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8592.69", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9487.68", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,428.96" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:25.732495Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81428.96, "last_price_dollars": "0.5900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "116142.62", "open_time": "2026-10-16T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T16:45:00.556587Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "176712.73", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "12701.40", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "8109.03", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,428.96" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.58, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.59, "yes_ask_size": 12701.4, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.42, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T16:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0014888179447850591, "return_30m": -0.0006881999219097157, "return_60m": -0.0018740299530141113, "return_120m": -0.009815767312704615, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004896468783006647, "close_vs_ema6": -0.001217192626591257, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002922617527303939, "ema3_slope": -0.000489407241572648, "ema6_slope": -0.00048664011673182905, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0011453148597094231, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002418965597669422, "return_acceleration": -0.0022906297194188463 } }, { "id": 273, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T1800Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:01:17.749664Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161415", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161415-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161415-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:00:00Z", "strike": 81088.94, "brti_reference_price": 81088.93966666664, "yes_ask": 0.57, "no_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 3689.73, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.44, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 218, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:01:17.939595Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.189931, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.0, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 365.5935260416809, "small_mean_absolute_error": 405.8571979166809 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.0, "both_up_accuracy": 0.125, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 1.0, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 242.96294791667606, "small_mean_absolute_error": 280.4393671875114 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 251.10251736111726, "small_mean_absolute_error": 241.912979166671 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 202.71361770833755, "small_mean_absolute_error": 212.61512500000245 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T17:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.017626396280899126, "return_12h": -0.011950261851023214, "return_24h": -0.015312103089683116, "close_vs_ema12": -0.008605977540387832, "close_vs_ema24": -0.009616945328765003, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003719537093680114, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0018254478648401795, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T18:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:26.991748Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161415", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T18:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T18:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81088.94, "last_price_dollars": "0.5400", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T18:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T18:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "136616.06", "open_time": "2026-10-16T18:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161415-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T18:00:00.622684Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "246931.69", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4450.20", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6280.02", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,088.94" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T18:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:26.991748Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161415", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T18:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T18:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81088.94, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T18:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T18:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "140895.47", "open_time": "2026-10-16T18:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161415-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T18:00:00.622684Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "259395.22", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3689.73", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "11880.99", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,088.94" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 3689.73, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.44, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T17:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.004224962501173102, "return_30m": 0.003433336168463752, "return_60m": -0.0028712964330348534, "return_120m": -0.00224329213373875, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.000824008728013359, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0015116833483038716, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003419692295581034, "ema3_slope": -0.0008233302966629275, "ema6_slope": -0.0006043079304272059, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.005957877239259279, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.004878137066488313, "return_acceleration": -0.011915754478518559 } }, { "id": 274, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T1815Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:16:17.035732Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161430", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161430-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161430-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:15:00Z", "strike": 81221.17, "brti_reference_price": 81221.16799999999, "yes_ask": 0.6, "no_ask": 0.41, "yes_ask_size": 5156.57, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.6, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 5156.57, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 162, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:16:17.216508Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.180776, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-16T18:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 318.3569791666814, "small_mean_absolute_error": 336.6772916666814 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 236.15438802084282, "small_mean_absolute_error": 252.75971354167814 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5833333333333334, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 230.32684201389566, "small_mean_absolute_error": 236.46803298611607 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.45, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.55, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 204.06079895833756, "small_mean_absolute_error": 214.5374718750034 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.011652859355643086, "return_12h": -0.008674669636867804, "return_24h": -0.010046256818764032, "close_vs_ema12": -0.006705986255528318, "close_vs_ema24": -0.007838262785045291, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0037760071898872427, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0020284374699739427, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "CHOP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T18:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:27.248006Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161430", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T18:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T18:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81221.17, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T18:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T18:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "141288.22", "open_time": "2026-10-16T18:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161430-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T18:15:00.617379Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "221098.17", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4684.60", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "9069.18", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,221.17" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T18:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:27.248006Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161430", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T18:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T18:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81221.17, "last_price_dollars": "0.6000", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T18:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T18:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "139978.45", "open_time": "2026-10-16T18:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:30 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161430-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T18:15:00.617379Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "217817.70", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "5156.57", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7271.91", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,221.17" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.59, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.6, "yes_ask_size": 5156.57, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.41, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 162, "entry_price": 0.6, "gross_cost": 97.2, "trading_fee": 2.73, "total_deployed": 99.93, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 162.0, "gross_pnl": 64.8, "net_pnl": 62.06999999999999, "roi": 0.6211347943560491, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.6, "gross_cost": 60.0, "trading_fee": 1.68, "total_deployed": 61.68, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 40.0, "net_pnl": 38.32, "roi": 0.6212710765239948, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0016306580635645496, "return_30m": -0.0026011939067793755, "return_60m": 0.002348073345820989, "return_120m": -0.0032383202859219695, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00040249076549159213, "close_vs_ema6": 8.321842737024632e-05, "close_vs_ema12": -0.001518936014342387, "ema3_slope": 0.000402652829537109, "ema6_slope": 3.328847903394383e-05, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0029278102823688257, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.004625021798472783, "return_acceleration": 0.005855620564737651 } }, { "id": 275, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T1845Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:46:20.493041Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161500", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161500-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161500-00:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:45:00Z", "strike": 80979.81, "brti_reference_price": 80979.80583333335, "yes_ask": 0.46, "no_ask": 0.55, "yes_ask_size": 4663.75, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.46, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 4663.75, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 209, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:46:20.691555Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.198514, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-16T19:00:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 214.56095312500474, "small_mean_absolute_error": 258.98087500000474 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 268.61717447917545, "small_mean_absolute_error": 316.53904947917545 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 235.98432638889426, "small_mean_absolute_error": 276.95167881945116 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 218.573570833337, "small_mean_absolute_error": 240.71414479166924 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.014434342252779064, "return_12h": -0.01296505042820506, "return_24h": -0.01517531763823976, "close_vs_ema12": -0.009037578164255322, "close_vs_ema24": -0.010425690088618711, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003883955234524561, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0024774954994980503, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:28.09703Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161500", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T19:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80979.81, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T19:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "205337.33", "open_time": "2026-10-16T18:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161500-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T18:45:00.55511Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "301716.60", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "100.02", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "15032.00", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,979.81" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T19:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:28.09703Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161500", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T19:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 80979.81, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T19:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "197470.10", "open_time": "2026-10-16T18:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 2:45 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161500-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T18:45:00.55511Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "353531.95", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4663.75", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "11798.31", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $80,979.81" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.45, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.46, "yes_ask_size": 4663.75, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.55, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 209, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 96.14, "trading_fee": 3.64, "total_deployed": 99.78, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 209.0, "gross_pnl": 112.86, "net_pnl": 109.22, "roi": 1.0946081379033874, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.46, "gross_cost": 46.0, "trading_fee": 1.74, "total_deployed": 47.74, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 54.0, "net_pnl": 52.26, "roi": 1.0946795140343526, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0037641108613248875, "return_30m": -0.0029716657936591506, "return_60m": -0.00556512982148305, "return_120m": -0.005515959034625761, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0015863115811594053, "close_vs_ema6": -0.002244134454450153, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0037044865436365315, "ema3_slope": -0.001583799182174661, "ema6_slope": -0.0008968487221330257, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0022797750251406512, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002625544331001421, "return_acceleration": -0.0045595500502813024 } }, { "id": 276, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T1900Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:01:18.396078Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161515", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161515-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161515-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:00:00Z", "strike": 81006.81, "brti_reference_price": 81006.81033333334, "yes_ask": 0.47, "no_ask": 0.54, "yes_ask_size": 9967.73, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.54, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 179, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:01:18.609848Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.21377, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 136.0121250000011, "small_mean_absolute_error": 212.5668125000011 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.125, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.875, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 250.802825520841, "small_mean_absolute_error": 309.212005208341 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 207.31267361111773, "small_mean_absolute_error": 257.8151822916746 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.3, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 218.1219250000031, "small_mean_absolute_error": 235.19257708333535 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.011425998748822552, "return_12h": -0.013096976258480164, "return_24h": -0.015746052709540437, "close_vs_ema12": -0.008354696464846212, "close_vs_ema24": -0.009889597397433558, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.003858467008476363, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.00266179735230887, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:28.347489Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81006.81, "last_price_dollars": "0.4700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "123817.69", "open_time": "2026-10-16T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T19:00:00.558496Z", "volume_24h_fp": "161331.00", "volume_fp": "196704.17", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4265.53", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10339.40", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,006.81" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T19:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:28.347489Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161515", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T19:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81006.81, "last_price_dollars": "0.4600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T19:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "133579.24", "open_time": "2026-10-16T19:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:15 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:00 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161515-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T19:00:00.558496Z", "volume_24h_fp": "161331.00", "volume_fp": "215336.77", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "9967.73", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3782.49", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,006.81" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.46, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.47, "yes_ask_size": 9967.73, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.54, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T18:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.0003334720270331548, "return_30m": -0.003431894059970575, "return_60m": -0.0010128302783450893, "return_120m": -0.003881218575414458, "consecutive_up_closes": 1, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0006270772517836809, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0013660394346319826, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002854923344718152, "ema3_slope": -0.0006266842723322563, "ema6_slope": -0.0005461173667093977, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.002048791444179021, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002080818795893619, "return_acceleration": 0.004097582888358042 } }, { "id": 277, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261016T1930Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:31:17.202940Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161545", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161545-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161545-45:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:30:00Z", "strike": 81479.68, "brti_reference_price": 81479.67800000001, "yes_ask": 0.29, "no_ask": 0.72, "yes_ask_size": 8096.63, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.29, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 8096.63, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 328, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:31:17.383744Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.180804, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-16T19:45:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.0, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 184.09506770833832, "small_mean_absolute_error": 159.63608333333832 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 235.23132552084098, "small_mean_absolute_error": 258.797731770841 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.16666666666666666, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 228.2358923611197, "small_mean_absolute_error": 241.1812048611197 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.4, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 216.68197916667268, "small_mean_absolute_error": 228.26356875000494 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.004905184663544837, "return_12h": -0.008072207499388306, "return_24h": -0.011639259292912207, "close_vs_ema12": -0.002263947828948898, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0038927986327293995, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0036866648509829014, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0028160997639393726, "score": -3, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T19:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:28.856929Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T19:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81479.68, "last_price_dollars": "0.3600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T19:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "156465.40", "open_time": "2026-10-16T19:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T19:30:00.563Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "241680.47", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8660.87", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "10263.74", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,479.68" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-16T19:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:28.856929Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161545", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-16T19:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81479.68, "last_price_dollars": "0.2900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-23T19:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-16T19:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "175779.06", "open_time": "2026-10-16T19:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:45 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 3:30 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT161545-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-16T19:30:00.563Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "302409.33", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8096.63", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1812.31", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,479.68" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.28, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.29, "yes_ask_size": 8096.63, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.72, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 328, "entry_price": 0.29, "gross_cost": 95.11999999999999, "trading_fee": 4.73, "total_deployed": 99.85, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.11999999999999, "net_pnl": -99.85, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.29, "gross_cost": 28.999999999999996, "trading_fee": 1.45, "total_deployed": 30.449999999999996, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -28.999999999999996, "net_pnl": -30.449999999999996, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-16T19:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.002506166637931573, "return_30m": 0.0058373816315058225, "return_60m": 0.002385454296188305, "return_120m": 0.008268519252585094, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.0019235872425868994, "close_vs_ema6": 0.002785028494215247, "close_vs_ema12": 0.0024485703572696416, "ema3_slope": 0.0019272945618187265, "ema6_slope": 0.001115253803134042, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0004083603231944677, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.002746092066783213, "return_acceleration": -0.0008167206463889354 } }, { "id": 278, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261017T0230Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-17T02:31:16.979519Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-17T02:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT162245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT162245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT162245-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-17T02:30:00Z", "strike": 81298.54, "brti_reference_price": 81298.5365, "yes_ask": 0.72, "no_ask": 0.29, "yes_ask_size": 4696.81, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.29, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 328, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-17T02:31:17.188378Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.208859, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.5, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 89.55754687499575, "small_mean_absolute_error": 91.80130729166558 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 75.43226041666458, "small_mean_absolute_error": 49.46460937500342 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.75, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 72.12644618055128, "small_mean_absolute_error": 36.75914930556004 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.55, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3, "both_up_accuracy": 0.35, "both_down_accuracy": 0.45, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.7, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 62.26518333333443, "small_mean_absolute_error": 44.81697916666817 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "BEAR", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T02:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0027146848467596296, "return_12h": -0.01166296182865012, "return_24h": -0.008225179812947014, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003127438640313507, "close_vs_ema24": -0.004566733969571191, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0008842547086070907, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.001185288417436814, "score": -2, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T02:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:36.25036Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT162245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T02:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T02:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81298.54, "last_price_dollars": "0.6300", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T02:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "no_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T02:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "159005.34", "open_time": "2026-10-17T02:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT162245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T02:30:00.539143Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "248495.52", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "yes_ask_size_fp": "2806.20", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1210.24", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,298.54" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T02:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-15T20:01:36.25036Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT162245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T02:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T02:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81298.54, "last_price_dollars": "0.7100", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T02:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.2900", "no_bid_dollars": "0.2800", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T02:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "165692.29", "open_time": "2026-10-17T02:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:45 PM EDT on Oct 16, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 10:30 PM EDT on October 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT162245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T02:30:00.539143Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "277808.41", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.7200", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4696.81", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.7100", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2899.37", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,298.54" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.71, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.72, "yes_ask_size": 4696.81, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.29, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T02:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.002554798009528847, "return_30m": -0.0014040842964256894, "return_60m": -0.0015391741059888053, "return_120m": -0.001940334121157905, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0010137923600191945, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0013930607230400183, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0018372391148311351, "ema3_slope": -0.0010127656259651951, "ema6_slope": -0.0005569139632285447, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.001854229546836672, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0013487941935113419, "return_acceleration": -0.003708459093673344 } }, { "id": 279, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261017T1500Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:01:17.805832Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171115", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171115-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171115-15:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:00:00Z", "strike": 81471.54, "brti_reference_price": 81471.5385, "yes_ask": 0.49, "no_ask": 0.52, "yes_ask_size": 7513.04, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.49, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 7513.04, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 197, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:01:17.989888Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.184056, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "UP", "settlement_result": "YES", "inverse_settlement_value": 1.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-17T15:15:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 52.995583333329705, "small_mean_absolute_error": 32.57516666666925 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 35.941901041664096, "small_mean_absolute_error": 40.955291666672565 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5833333333333333, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 32.02335590277653, "small_mean_absolute_error": 46.41444444444884 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 33.274196874999326, "small_mean_absolute_error": 46.30927187500201 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T14:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.001536324745940787, "return_12h": 0.0011167969720369264, "return_24h": -0.004829624417919565, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00011514544457502662, "close_vs_ema24": -0.000906935063489267, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.00048136688880939804, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0006732873699359931, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T15:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:29.992496Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T15:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T15:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81471.54, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T15:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5100", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5000", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T15:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "70626.39", "open_time": "2026-10-17T15:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T15:00:01.1336Z", "volume_24h_fp": "99496.16", "volume_fp": "130587.57", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5000", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4890.65", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1577.56", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,471.54" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T15:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:29.992496Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171115", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T15:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T15:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81471.54, "last_price_dollars": "0.4900", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T15:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.5200", "no_bid_dollars": "0.5100", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T15:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "81751.18", "open_time": "2026-10-17T15:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:00 AM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171115-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T15:00:01.1336Z", "volume_24h_fp": "99496.16", "volume_fp": "148634.44", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.4900", "yes_ask_size_fp": "7513.04", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.4800", "yes_bid_size_fp": "514.20", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,471.54" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.48, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.49, "yes_ask_size": 7513.04, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.52, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 197, "entry_price": 0.49, "gross_cost": 96.53, "trading_fee": 3.45, "total_deployed": 99.98, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 197.0, "gross_pnl": 100.47, "net_pnl": 97.02, "roi": 0.9703940788157631, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.49, "gross_cost": 49.0, "trading_fee": 1.75, "total_deployed": 50.75, "settlement_value": 1.0, "settlement_payout": 100.0, "gross_pnl": 51.0, "net_pnl": 49.25, "roi": 0.9704433497536946, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T14:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 3.903969685992159e-05, "return_30m": 0.00024991656812334284, "return_60m": 0.0010448149073560842, "return_120m": 0.0008408423506471863, "consecutive_up_closes": 3, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.00017590712165493905, "close_vs_ema6": 0.0003897537727379774, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00041436527256655253, "ema3_slope": 0.00017593807041449416, "ema6_slope": 0.00015592581816559203, "realized_volatility_30m": 8.591447107786365e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0003797321151029371, "return_acceleration": -0.0001718289421557273 } }, { "id": 280, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261017T1515Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:16:16.839954Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:30:00Z", "original_model_direction": "DOWN", "inverted_trade_side": "YES", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171130", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171130-30", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171130-30:YES", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:15:00Z", "strike": 81480.2, "brti_reference_price": 81480.19766666667, "yes_ask": 0.38, "no_ask": 0.63, "yes_ask_size": 3651.66, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.38, "selected_entry_price_source": "live_executable_ask", "selected_depth": 3651.66, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 252, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:16:17.042940Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.202986, "data_quality_status": "usable_live_inverse_ask", "fill_created": true, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": "DOWN", "settlement_result": "NO", "inverse_settlement_value": 0.0, "settled_at": "2026-10-17T15:30:00Z", "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.0, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 67.22736979166802, "small_mean_absolute_error": 24.821119791668025 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.5, "small_accuracy": 0.375, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.375, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 40.607908854164634, "small_mean_absolute_error": 35.4347760416731 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 36.62708333333163, "small_mean_absolute_error": 44.12168750000395 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.45, "small_accuracy": 0.35, "agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "both_up_accuracy": 0.55, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.5, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 35.54326354166697, "small_mean_absolute_error": 45.49630729166965 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:00:00Z", "return_6h": -0.0014027308055751808, "return_12h": 0.0017205237704596144, "return_24h": -0.0019376384025241444, "close_vs_ema12": -8.510955680551824e-06, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0007841912858346234, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0004450467614937059, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0006882886287685741, "score": 0, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "UP", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:30.250535Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81480.2, "last_price_dollars": "0.3700", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T15:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "109263.94", "open_time": "2026-10-17T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T15:15:00.518383Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "205473.88", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1804.22", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "6771.62", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,480.20" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T15:30:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:30.250535Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171130", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T15:35:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T15:30:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81480.2, "last_price_dollars": "0.3800", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T15:30:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6300", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6200", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T15:35:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "119600.49", "open_time": "2026-10-17T15:15:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:30 AM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:15 AM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171130-30", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T15:15:00.518383Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "217889.86", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3800", "yes_ask_size_fp": "3651.66", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_bid_size_fp": "2474.29", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,480.20" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.37, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.38, "yes_ask_size": 3651.66, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.63, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_dollars", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 252, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 95.76, "trading_fee": 4.16, "total_deployed": 99.92, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -95.76, "net_pnl": -99.92, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "fixed_shares_result": { "stake_mode": "fixed_shares", "stake_amount": 100.0, "shares": 100, "entry_price": 0.38, "gross_cost": 38.0, "trading_fee": 1.65, "total_deployed": 39.65, "settlement_value": 0.0, "settlement_payout": 0.0, "gross_pnl": -38.0, "net_pnl": -39.65, "roi": -1.0, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "fee_rate": 0.07 }, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T15:00:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": 0.00010628456054839752, "return_30m": 0.00014532840672543124, "return_60m": 0.0012478006107745632, "return_120m": 0.0012230525953209614, "consecutive_up_closes": 4, "consecutive_down_closes": 0, "close_vs_ema3": 0.000141085281341935, "close_vs_ema6": 0.00035429246797580305, "close_vs_ema12": 0.00044055183276348053, "ema3_slope": 0.0001411051892072912, "ema6_slope": 0.0001417370737413215, "realized_volatility_30m": 3.3622431844237965e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.00034007002894747754, "return_acceleration": 6.724486368847593e-05 } }, { "id": 281, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261017T1630Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:15.279491Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:45:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171245", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171245-45", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171245-45:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:30:00Z", "strike": 81209.08, "brti_reference_price": 81209.07966666667, "yes_ask": 0.27, "no_ask": 0.74, "yes_ask_size": 6380.79, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.74, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 132, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:31:15.466622Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.187131, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 90.13158333332467, "small_mean_absolute_error": 114.5161666666645 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 76.03986718749366, "small_mean_absolute_error": 75.16477604166357 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 60.13916145832991, "small_mean_absolute_error": 66.7658888888897 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.5, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 48.175240624997244, "small_mean_absolute_error": 63.57157604166859 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:15:00Z", "return_6h": -0.003828599577839764, "return_12h": -0.0025303152612095037, "return_24h": -0.004185126711143239, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0029148677833070735, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0038135296016597042, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0006198396069995171, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0008964874428378788, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:31.489396Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81209.08, "last_price_dollars": "0.2600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T16:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "116059.64", "open_time": "2026-10-17T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T16:30:00.623693Z", "volume_24h_fp": "147097.36", "volume_fp": "184997.84", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6380.79", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1885.92", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,209.08" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T16:45:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:31.489396Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171245", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T16:50:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T16:45:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81209.08, "last_price_dollars": "0.2600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T16:45:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.7400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.7300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T16:50:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "116059.64", "open_time": "2026-10-17T16:30:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:30 PM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171245-45", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T16:30:00.623693Z", "volume_24h_fp": "147097.36", "volume_fp": "184997.84", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.2700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6380.79", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.2600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "1885.92", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,209.08" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.26, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.27, "yes_ask_size": 6380.79, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.74, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:15:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0010686509337263228, "return_30m": -0.00041955118965164573, "return_60m": -0.00225598036842789, "return_120m": -0.0029723673236216053, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 1, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0006117559818117346, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0012035668239069874, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0017984507571440211, "ema3_slope": -0.0006113819652374675, "ema6_slope": -0.00048119506939425793, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0008592225404615572, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008233436876175506, "return_acceleration": -0.0017184450809231144 } }, { "id": 282, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261017T1645Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:46:19.402984Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-17T17:00:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171300", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171300-00", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171300-00:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:45:00Z", "strike": 81182.3, "brti_reference_price": 81182.30216666668, "yes_ask": 0.57, "no_ask": 0.44, "yes_ask_size": 6583.83, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.44, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 218, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:46:19.602481Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.199497, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 107.85255729165874, "small_mean_absolute_error": 107.47346874999857 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 81.22687760416011, "small_mean_absolute_error": 77.97776302083003 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "small_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 67.01206770832869, "small_mean_absolute_error": 65.42785763888848 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.4, "small_accuracy": 0.3, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.45, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 49.30832499999669, "small_mean_absolute_error": 60.795676041668045 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:30:00Z", "return_6h": -0.004252488715569935, "return_12h": -0.003318133376904564, "return_24h": -0.0030291739678837137, "close_vs_ema12": -0.003111660359819468, "close_vs_ema24": -0.004056925102650544, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.000689955457322533, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0009656128361853478, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:31.751534Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81182.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "99107.26", "open_time": "2026-10-17T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T16:45:00.550611Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "165460.63", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "4957.03", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "3059.50", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,182.30" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T17:00:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:31.751534Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171300", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T17:05:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T17:00:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81182.3, "last_price_dollars": "0.5600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T17:00:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.4400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.4300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T17:05:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "110385.57", "open_time": "2026-10-17T16:45:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:45 PM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171300-00", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T16:45:00.550611Z", "volume_24h_fp": "0.00", "volume_fp": "186974.38", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.5700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "6583.83", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.5600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7294.69", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,182.30" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.56, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.57, "yes_ask_size": 6583.83, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.44, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:30:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.00032973529696322945, "return_30m": -0.0013980338587565866, "return_60m": -0.002271737920629513, "return_120m": -0.003511250752510797, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 2, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004708663914266831, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0010954120911355059, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0018008604963123398, "ema3_slope": -0.0004706447806174241, "ema6_slope": -0.0004379729321160042, "realized_volatility_30m": 0.0003694578183815467, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0008221718578811755, "return_acceleration": 0.0007389156367630934 } }, { "id": 283, "strategy_name": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_INVERSE_SHADOW", "state_version": "KALSHI_15M_MODEL_STATE_V1", "experiment_group_id": "kalshi15m-20261017T1700Z", "signal_timestamp": "2026-10-17T17:01:19.007385Z", "resolution_timestamp": "2026-10-17T17:15:00Z", "original_model_direction": "UP", "inverted_trade_side": "NO", "model_state_at_entry": "INVERTED_CANDIDATE", "external_event_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171315", "market_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171315-15", "contract_id": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171315-15:NO", "market_title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "market_start_timestamp": "2026-10-17T17:00:00Z", "strike": 81141.54, "brti_reference_price": 81141.54449999997, "yes_ask": 0.37, "no_ask": 0.64, "yes_ask_size": 8017.41, "no_ask_size": null, "selected_entry_price": 0.64, "selected_entry_price_source": "market_no_ask", "selected_depth": null, "required_fixed_dollar_contracts": 152, "required_fixed_share_contracts": 100, "quote_timestamp": "2026-10-17T17:01:19.211225Z", "quote_offset_seconds": 0.20384, "data_quality_status": "insufficient_opposite_side_depth", "fill_created": false, "fee_formula": "ceil_to_cent(0.07 * contracts * price * (1 - price))", "actual_btc_direction": null, "settlement_result": null, "inverse_settlement_value": null, "settled_at": null, "rolling_accuracies_at_entry": { "4": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.25, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 4, "resolved_agreements": 4, "base_mean_absolute_error": 91.63471874999959, "small_mean_absolute_error": 76.65016145833943 }, "8": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.25, "both_up_accuracy": 0.375, "both_down_accuracy": 0.5, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.75, "resolved_samples": 8, "resolved_agreements": 8, "base_mean_absolute_error": 84.1520494791639, "small_mean_absolute_error": 83.65000520833382 }, "12": { "base_accuracy": 0.25, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.3333333333333333, "both_up_accuracy": 0.25, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4166666666666667, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.6666666666666667, "resolved_samples": 12, "resolved_agreements": 12, "base_mean_absolute_error": 73.76656076388583, "small_mean_absolute_error": 66.62505902777896 }, "20": { "base_accuracy": 0.35, "small_accuracy": 0.25, "agreement_accuracy": 0.35, "both_up_accuracy": 0.4, "both_down_accuracy": 0.4, "inverted_agreement_accuracy": 0.65, "resolved_samples": 20, "resolved_agreements": 20, "base_mean_absolute_error": 52.87483333333148, "small_mean_absolute_error": 61.30866875000284 } }, "market_regime": { "regime": "NEUTRAL", "source": "btcflix_price_features", "method_version": "price_features_15m_v1", "source_interval_minutes": 15, "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:45:00Z", "return_6h": -0.004674099173759938, "return_12h": -0.0034423223480207765, "return_24h": -0.002224429061496336, "close_vs_ema12": -0.00346522550910644, "close_vs_ema24": -0.0044634183151703866, "ema12_slope_3h": -0.0007845270243979074, "ema24_slope_6h": -0.0010420240087201105, "score": -1, "classification_notes": "BULL/BEAR requires at least two aligned votes from 24h return, close-vs-EMA24, and EMA12 3h slope; otherwise NEUTRAL" }, "micro_regime_15m": "DOWN", "raw_market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T17:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:32.018145Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T17:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T17:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81141.54, "last_price_dollars": "0.3500", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T17:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6500", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6400", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T17:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "114917.32", "open_time": "2026-10-17T17:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T17:00:00.550234Z", "volume_24h_fp": "156221.53", "volume_fp": "211145.28", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_ask_size_fp": "1079.35", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3500", "yes_bid_size_fp": "7370.45", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,141.54" }, "raw_quote": { "market": { "can_close_early": true, "close_time": "2026-10-17T17:15:00Z", "created_time": "2026-10-16T20:01:32.018145Z", "custom_strike": { "round_digits": "2" }, "event_ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171315", "exchange_index": 2, "expected_expiration_time": "2026-10-17T17:20:00Z", "expiration_time": "2026-10-24T17:15:00Z", "expiration_value": "", "floor_strike": 81141.54, "last_price_dollars": "0.3600", "latest_expiration_time": "2026-10-24T17:15:00Z", "market_type": "binary", "no_ask_dollars": "0.6400", "no_bid_dollars": "0.6300", "no_sub_title": "Target price: TBD", "notional_value_dollars": "1.0000", "occurrence_datetime": "2026-10-17T17:20:00Z", "open_interest_fp": "127747.18", "open_time": "2026-10-17T17:00:00Z", "previous_price_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_ask_dollars": "0.0000", "previous_yes_bid_dollars": "0.0000", "price_level_structure": "tapered_deci_cent", "price_ranges": [ { "end": "0.1000", "start": "0.0000", "step": "0.0010" }, { "end": "0.9000", "start": "0.1000", "step": "0.0100" }, { "end": "1.0000", "start": "0.9000", "step": "0.0010" } ], "result": "", "rules_primary": "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:15 PM EDT on Oct 17, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 1:00 PM EDT on October 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.", "rules_secondary": "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.", "settlement_bounds_type": "default", "settlement_timer_seconds": 1, "status": "active", "strike_type": "greater_or_equal", "ticker": "KXBTC15M-26OCT171315-15", "title": "BTC price up in next 15 mins?", "updated_time": "2026-10-17T17:00:00.550234Z", "volume_24h_fp": "156221.53", "volume_fp": "238169.66", "yes_ask_dollars": "0.3700", "yes_ask_size_fp": "8017.41", "yes_bid_dollars": "0.3600", "yes_bid_size_fp": "823.20", "yes_sub_title": "Target Price: $81,141.54" }, "orderbook": {}, "yes_bid": 0.36, "yes_bid_size": null, "yes_ask": 0.37, "yes_ask_size": 8017.41, "no_bid": null, "no_bid_size": null, "no_ask": 0.64, "no_ask_size": null, "no_ask_source": "market_no_ask" }, "fixed_dollars_result": null, "fixed_shares_result": null, "micro_regime_metadata": { "method_version": "KALSHI_15M_MICRO_REGIME_V1", "feature_timestamp": "2026-10-17T16:45:00Z", "classification_rule": "UP when 30-minute return, close-vs-EMA3 and EMA3 slope are positive; DOWN when all three are negative; otherwise CHOP", "is_trade_gate": false }, "micro_regime_features": { "return_15m": -0.0005020511315757537, "return_30m": -0.0008316208845600137, "return_60m": -0.0012508231666802372, "return_120m": -0.004050420626339646, "consecutive_up_closes": 0, "consecutive_down_closes": 3, "close_vs_ema3": -0.0004865772042299543, "close_vs_ema6": -0.0011411730082566685, "close_vs_ema12": -0.0019485425893495112, "ema3_slope": -0.00048634056199881037, "ema6_slope": -0.00045626093423767333, "realized_volatility_30m": 8.61579173062621e-05, "realized_volatility_60m": 0.0006192739385393276, "return_acceleration": -0.0001723158346125242 } } ] }