READ-ONLY · PROSPECTIVE TREATMENT LEDGER
Kronos Regime
Edge 15M.
A separate prospective treatment alongside the frozen Bull Consensus control. Only Base/Small UP consensus in a BEAR or NEUTRAL regime can enter, and only at a timely executable Kalshi YES ask below 60¢ with sufficient displayed depth. Thresholds are frozen at version 1.0.
TREATMENT DIAGNOSTICS
Regime, geometry, and micro-regime splits
Geometry is observational metadata only. HIGH and STANDARD do not change whether version 1.0 enters a paper trade.
HIGH vs STANDARD geometry
15-minute micro regime
Paper-trading results are hypothetical. Historical Polymarket entries may use traded-price samples rather than archived executable asks. Past and in-sample performance does not establish a tradable edge.
Historical empirical hit rate — small, partially in-sample sample; not a calibrated probability.
PAPER PERFORMANCE
Signal economics
Was BTC direction correct at resolution?
Did the signal overcome entry cost and fees?
LATEST MODEL STATE
Current signal status
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PERFORMANCE PATH
What the ledger shows
COMPLETE RECORD
Prospective trade ledger
Observed BTC and Kalshi Strike are underlying BRTI dollar values. YES Entry is the binary UP contract ask/probability—not a laddered BTC contract price.
| Trigger (CT) | Resolution (CT) | Observed BTC | Kalshi Strike | Base / Small | YES Entry | Quote offset | Settlement | Direction | Gross P&L | Fees | Net P&L | ROI | Data quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Select any row to open its complete audit trail.
DATA PROVENANCE
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