{ "schema_version": "1.0", "dataset": "btcflix_kalshi_15m_market_edge", "description": "Prospective BTC Flix paper-trading results for the KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_BULL_CONSENSUS strategy against Kalshi 15-minute Bitcoin markets. Intended for both human analysis and automated LLM/agent consumption.", "strategy": "KRONOS_KALSHI_15M_BULL_CONSENSUS", "strategy_definition": "Kronos Base and the existing BTCUSDT-hourly self-tuned Kronos Small checkpoint both predict a BRTI close at or above the live Kalshi strike. The Small model is being evaluated as a prospective cross-interval transfer, not as a 15-minute fine-tune.", "generated_at": "2026-10-17T17:16:29.978552Z", "source_snapshot_schema_version": 1, "source_page": "/kalshi-15m/market-edge", "paper_trading_warning": "Paper-trading results are hypothetical. Entries require a prospectively captured Kalshi executable YES ask and sufficient displayed depth. Past and in-sample performance does not establish a tradable edge.", "units": { "currency": "USD", "probabilities": "decimal_fraction_0_to_1", "roi": "decimal_fraction", "displacement_fraction": "decimal_fraction", "timestamps": "ISO-8601 UTC where supplied by the source ledger" }, "record_semantics": "Each item in trades represents one consensus signal/trade opportunity. paper_trades contains the independently simulated fixed_dollars and fixed_shares results; null means no paper fill is recorded for that model.", "summary": { "default_stake_model": "fixed_dollars", "total_signals": 1082, "signals_with_usable_market_pricing": 1081, "total_trades": 1039, "wins": 542, "losses": 497, "hit_rate": 0.5216554379210779, "gross_pnl": 1837.0499999999993, "fees": 3409.71, "net_pnl": -1572.6599999999999, "roi": -0.015173721190471272, "regime_breakdown": [ { "regime": "BULL", "trade_count": 254, "wins": 113, "losses": 141, "hit_rate": 0.4448818897637795, "net_pnl": -4284.7300000000005, "roi": 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